Here's the way I see it. If everyone moves toward this, it will be incredibly short sighted on their part. The committee does not purely go based on record. Case in point is BYU, ranked behind multiple 2 loss teams at 11-1 and Virginia ranked behind two 3 loss teams. It still depends on the quality of your games and your performance.
Inevitably, teams are going to lose games in conference play. Miami did it to SMU and Louisville, Texas did it with Florida. Alabama almost lost to South Carolina. Those losses are going to matter and they are going to happen, which will then hurt your ability to make a conference championship game and win your way in to the field. So if everyone goes to cupcakes OOC, conference play would be the only way to differentiate yourself.
However, if you play a marquee OOC game and win it, your possible gain is far greater than your punishment for losing (especially if close). Case in point ND this year. Therefore as more and more teams go to cupcakes OOC if that truly is the way things go, you would have even more incentive to schedule those OOC big games to further differentiate yourself and not just rely on your conference performance. More room for error, and much more room for distinction compared to your conference peers. I think this would especially apply to conferences such as the Big 10 and SEC that have so much logjam amongst their teams.