2025 College Football Playoffs

[Irish4life]

 

[Dale]

Okay? Bama and BYU loses, ND could fall to 10 seed. Not end of the world. What could be even more likely is that Bama still gets in over Miami.

Push will now have to come to shove on one of two principals. Either:

- Losing the SEC (and Big 12) Championship costs you the CFP

- Head to head loss does not break ties

The Chair just said it is the latter. Which is good for ND. But it’s still a noteworthy development. With Utah’s prior ranking, it didn’t have to cement those rulings in stone.

 

[Irishdawg]

Keeping it simple= 2 more huge weeks of football until the college football playoffs start. Let’s Go!!

 

[pumpdog20]

<insert Denzel exhaling gif>

 

[jprue24]

Absolutely just FUCKING with Canes fans

 

[stlnd01]

Well, good thing we have a 22-point win over the last team Miami is likely to play.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I still say only one thing has to happen to ensure ND is in:
1) Bama loss, doesn't matter if its Auburn or CCG
2) Oklahoma loss to LSU
3) TTech wins CCG
4) Oregon loses to Washington (this is most iffy, Oregon could stay ahead)
5) Ole Miss loss to Miss St
6) Georgia blowout loss to GT
7) if committe really likes ND, they could position TTech down a spot or 2 next week to set up Big 12 conf champ loser be behind ND no matter what

 

[MPClinton22]

The only real “doomsday” is if shit goes wrong in every possible matchup, and it comes down to ND/Miami for one final at-large spot.

Idk if I already missed this debate on the website, but I’d be pissed if the roles were reversed and head-to-head didn’t mean anything. I was pissed back in 2018 when they were saying that shit about scUM being better than ND late in the year, ignoring head-to-head.

We all know the context of the Miami game, and I think everyone outside of Florida would agree that ND is the better team at this point, and would win a rematch (especially Vegas). But the committee being asked to ignore head-to-head is a TOUGH spot for them.

2018 was not the same though. We had H2H and NO losses - that argument made no sense at the time. If we had H2H and lost to a mid team in October to have the same record as UM, I’d have been annoyed they were ranked higher but more annoyed our team lost a game they shouldn’t have.

 

[Irishdawg]

Well, good thing we have a 22-point win over the last team Miami is likely to play.

Unless they beat them by more.

 

[notredomer23]

The odds of Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, and Miami all winning this week are +230. If you take out Miami as ND seems firmly in front of them when compared head to head, it’s +141. Miami included, the implied probability is 30%. Excluded, it’s 43%. ND essentially has a 57% chance of a home game still, to go with their 94% chance of making the playoffs

 

[rtrn2glory]

Pitt better just not blow their chance Saturday. High of 37 on Saturday. If we had Miami in those conditions it's a minimum of 3 TDs

 

[Huntr]

Look, I need something a little more scary than "the H2H isn't the only thing that matters."

These pants aren't gonna piss themselves.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

If they’re within range, why didn’t it already? They clearly still think Miami is less deserving than us, and I don’t understand what would materially change unless they absolutely slaughter Pitt substantially more than we did.

Now they have more motivation to “slaughter Pitt”. ND set the bar, so now Miami knows if they exceed it that perception should vault them over ND. The Irish also gave Miami the blueprint on how to shut down their QB & their offense.

 

[IrishLax]

Just looking at this logically BYU and Bama both moving down with a loss AND Miami soundly beating Pitt probably puts us at 10. Which is still OK right? Like the only bid thieves are at #11 and #12?

Bama winning and BYU winning their respective championship games could get weird though.

Oklahoma continues to be massively overrated as does Ole Miss, I really don't get it with either of them.

 

[OhioIrish]

All of this “band/tier” talk is utter bullshit, the tier comp doesn’t exist. The Committee has explained that they start the ranking from scratch each week, but teams cannot be tiered or banded until they’ve have been ranked, and they cannot be ranked until they have been compared. Thus, the assertion would be they compare all the teams to rank them, then run a second comparison within each tier/band? Nah, it’s nonsense. There are no “bands” in any material sense.

 

[Huntr]

Now they have more motivation to “slaughter Pitt”. ND set the bar, so now Miami knows if they exceed it that perception should vault them over ND. The Irish also gave Miami the blueprint on how to shut down their QB & their offense.

Georgia Tech had it too.

 

[IrishLax]

Now they have more motivation to “slaughter Pitt”. ND set the bar, so now Miami knows if they exceed it that perception should vault them over ND. The Irish also gave Miami the blueprint on how to shut down their QB & their offense.

If our 22 point margin ends up being. Or good enough because of that last second TD thanks to two BOGUS roughing the passer calls and guys forgetting to keep playing I might lose it.

Pitt is a really bad matchup with Miami because their OL sucks and Miami has a good DL, so who knows how that game goes.

 

[MPClinton22]

Now they have more motivation to “slaughter Pitt”. ND set the bar, so now Miami knows if they exceed it that perception should vault them over ND. The Irish also gave Miami the blueprint on how to shut down their QB & their offense.

You’re underestimating the Miami playing in the cold aspect though. Remember the Soldier Field game? Or Sun Bowl?

And it’s a Mario Cristobal team after all. All they had to do last year was not blow a 21 pt lead to Syracuse and they couldn’t do it. He’ll find a way to screw it up.

 

[thekid33]

All Miami can do is beat Pitt. We did that too. They aren't getting in unless it's total chaos and they make the ACC title game and win it.

If the committee wanted to put them ahead of ND they already would have. At this point it's hard, if not impossible, to justify doing it after this week when the final data point is a common opponent that we beat handily.

 

[IRISHbluehen]

Just looking at this logically BYU and Bama both moving down with a loss AND Miami soundly beating Pitt probably puts us at 10. Which is still OK right? Like the only bid thieves are at #11 and #12?

Bama winning and BYU winning their respective championship games could get weird though.

Oklahoma continues to be massively overrated as does Ole Miss, I really don't get it with either of them.

At this point, outside of Miami beating the doors off Pitt and ND sleepwalking at Stanford, their rankings in the mind of the committee have to be basically set. They compared them together this week and they decided ND is better. As anyone with eyeballs can see. Dinich basically confirmed, the CFP just simply prefers ND to UM.

 

[Huntr]

 

[MPClinton22]

Just looking at this logically BYU and Bama both moving down with a loss AND Miami soundly beating Pitt probably puts us at 10. Which is still OK right? Like the only bid thieves are at #11 and #12?

Bama winning and BYU winning their respective championship games could get weird though.

Oklahoma continues to be massively overrated as does Ole Miss, I really don't get it with either of them.

I am pretty sure they said they already are in the same tier, and ND > Miami in their eyes. So, movement between the two with no real change in the perspective of ND or Miami wouldn’t cause Miami to randomly jump us.

I really believe the only way this goes poorly for us is if we look mediocre against Stanford AND Miami looks like we did against Syracuse. Our game against Pitt was a blowout, so it would take a truly eye popping score to be considered any differently I think.

And this could all be cope and they are priming Miami to jump us. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Bane]

You’re underestimating the Miami playing in the cold aspect though. Remember the Soldier Field game? Or Sun Bowl?

And it’s a Mario Cristobal team after all. All they had to do last year was not blow a 21 pt lead to Syracuse and they couldn’t do it. He’ll find a way to screw it up.

If Miami beats Pitt by like 40 that could flip the conversation, but that just doesn't seem likely. They might win (I still have my doubts), but I could see it being more a slog for them.

Sure they have the motivation now to "slaughter Pitt," but they also have the pressure to do so. They can't just play to win, they have to play to run up the score and that is just not how Mario Cristobal coaches. He's much more of a BK type in that he just coaches to win games ("winning football games is hard"). I mean they had all the motivation in the world to slaughter a much worse VT team as 20+ point favorites and couldn't do it.

 

[Irish4life]

Just looking at this logically BYU and Bama both moving down with a loss AND Miami soundly beating Pitt probably puts us at 10. Which is still OK right? Like the only bid thieves are at #11 and #12?

Bama winning and BYU winning their respective championship games could get weird though.

Oklahoma continues to be massively overrated as does Ole Miss, I really don't get it with either of them.

If Bama and BYU both win their conference championships, we're out. Barring LSU over Oklahoma or Washington over Oregon.

 

[OhioIrish]

I still say only one thing has to happen to ensure ND is in:
1) Bama loss, doesn't matter if its Auburn or CCG
2) Oklahoma loss to LSU
3) TTech wins CCG
4) Oregon loses to Washington (this is most iffy, Oregon could stay ahead)
5) Ole Miss loss to Miss St
6) Georgia blowout loss to GT
7) if committe really likes ND, they could position TTech down a spot or 2 next week to set up Big 12 conf champ loser be behind ND no matter what

Agree with all of this but will add one: OU wins close against LSU and ND stomps Stanford, I think the committee swaps them at 8 and 9 and puts OU at risk of losing their spot in a doomsday scenario.

 

[Dale]

The video

 

[thekid33]

How much would they punish Ole Miss for not having their coach?

Do we think they would drop them all the way out?

 

[Dale]

Yurachek is better with his words than Rhoades. He makes it clear that Miami and ND were compared and a decision was made while also making it clear Miami has actually been rewarded for their recent play. No word salad about it.

 

[KPENN]

 

[NDPhilly]

Hypothetically if we did get at OU in round 1, we’d be a 5-7 point road favorite. As good as a road game as you could ask for.