2020 Elections

[RDU Irish]

Shock collars activated after time expires - would be hilarious because Trump definitely the dog that takes the zap to yap.

This isn't exactly a new problem in debates - have thought for a long time they should cut the mic on at least the first part of their responses to questions. Let them banter after they both get their 2 minutes uninterrupted.

 

[IrishLax]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Why would I allow the Debate Commission to change the rules for the second and third Debates when I easily won last time?</p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311731462589292544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 1, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Hard to know if he's seriously suggesting his campaign will not agree with the changes recommended by the bipartisan commission, or if this is just positioning so he can frame things in a positive light after he accepts them.

 

[Irish#1]

Use a TriTronics. Best made training collars out there. You can set it to a "beep tone" as a warning then increase the intensity as necessary. It wouldn't take long before Trump kept his mouth shut.

 

[Irish YJ]

Thought Chris Wallace was as fair as fair could be.

Our next moderator was an intern for Biden, and tweeted the below. How TF does that happen?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gotta love the <a href="https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VP</a> at the Biden Beach Bash '16 <a href="https://t.co/Z9gdC6Cmi1">pic.twitter.com/Z9gdC6Cmi1</a></p>— Steve Scully (@SteveScully) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveScully/status/739184728641810432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Thought Chris Wallace was as fair as fair could be.

Our next moderator was an intern for Biden, and tweeted the below. How TF does that happen?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gotta love the <a href="https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VP</a> at the Biden Beach Bash '16 <a href="https://t.co/Z9gdC6Cmi1">pic.twitter.com/Z9gdC6Cmi1</a></p>— Steve Scully (@SteveScully) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveScully/status/739184728641810432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

And they expect people to take this seriously? What a joke.

 

[RDU Irish]

Only way to balance that would be to have Eric or Don Jr. as co-moderator. Republicans are such wimps and get rolled on so many levels it is hard to keep up.

 

[IrishLax]

Thought Chris Wallace was as fair as fair could be.

Our next moderator was an intern for Biden, and tweeted the below. How TF does that happen?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gotta love the <a href="https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VP</a> at the Biden Beach Bash '16 <a href="https://t.co/Z9gdC6Cmi1">pic.twitter.com/Z9gdC6Cmi1</a></p>— Steve Scully (@SteveScully) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveScully/status/739184728641810432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Wild. Both sides agreed to these moderators too, which means either Trump's campaign is incompetent or they did this intentionally so that they can claim bias afterwards.

Next debate going to get cancelled anyways, which is sad because it was going to be a town hall format and our most likely chance to get real answers to real questions.

 

[Irish YJ]

Wild. Both sides agreed to these moderators too, which means either Trump's campaign is incompetent or they did this intentionally so that they can claim bias afterwards.

Next debate going to get cancelled anyways, which is sad because it was going to be a town hall format and our most likely chance to get real answers to real questions.

I'm guessing it's the bolded, or they had some weird rules selection.

Not sure though the next one will be canceled. Haven't looked for any news on the topic, but I'm assuming they could push them all back a couple days or a week. It's not for roughly two weeks anyway, so as long as Trump's health doesn't take a dive, it's not to far fetched to hit the 15th.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm guessing it's the bolded, or they had some weird rules selection.

Not sure though the next one will be canceled. Haven't looked for any news on the topic, but I'm assuming they could push them all back a couple days or a week. It's not for roughly two weeks anyway, so as long as Trump's health doesn't take a dive, it's not to far fetched to hit the 15th.

The earliest he could return from quarantine, per CDC guidelines, would be the 13th. So it could happen, but we'll see.

 

[drayer54]

Thought Chris Wallace was as fair as fair could be.

Our next moderator was an intern for Biden, and tweeted the below. How TF does that happen?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gotta love the <a href="https://twitter.com/VP?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VP</a> at the Biden Beach Bash '16 <a href="https://t.co/Z9gdC6Cmi1">pic.twitter.com/Z9gdC6Cmi1</a></p>— Steve Scully (@SteveScully) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveScully/status/739184728641810432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 4, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

He's had several pro-Biden tweets and anti-Trump tweets. I agree with Ted Cruz. Put Maddow and Carlson out as moderators and let them cross-examine.

 

[Irish YJ]

The earliest he could return from quarantine, per CDC guidelines, would be the 13th. So it could happen, but we'll see.

Yea, I was surprised at the low duration of Mike Lea's quarantine (the earlier tweet in this thread).

He's had several pro-Biden tweets and anti-Trump tweets. I agree with Ted Cruz. Put Maddow and Carlson out as moderators and let them cross-examine.

Wallace has never "liked" Trump. I'd be totally down with one person from each side. I'd prefer to not include homers for either party, but OK. Dana Perino is not a homer, and would do a great job IMO. If we're going with homers though, give me Hannity and Fredo.

 

[Blazers46]

Would love to see Megyn Kelly again.

 

[Legacy]

House - Roll Call is projecting 233 House Democratic seats, 189 seats to Reps with 13 Toss-Up races. Reps would need to win all the Toss-Ups and reverse some of those projected Dems to take the House.

Senate - Roll Call projects 50 Senate seats for Dems, 48 for Reps with two Toss-Ups races (Montana, Iowa). Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina are rated Tilt Democratic. South Carolina and Georgia are Tilt Republican.

In the Presidential race, Roll Call projects Biden has 319 electoral votes, 188 for Trump with 31 Toss-Up votes (Georgia - 16 votes, North Carolina - 15 votes). Trump margin in 2016 in parenthesis.

Arizona - 11 electoral votes (3.5%), Florida - 29 votes (1.2), Wisconsin - 10 votes (0.8) are Tilt Dem.
Iowa - 6 votes (9.4), Ohio - 18 votes (8.1), and Texas 68 votes (9.0) are Tilt Reps.
Michigan - 16 votes (0.2), Pennsylvania - 20 votes (0.7), New Hampshire - 4 votes (-0.4) are Lean Dem.
Montana - 3 votes (20.4) and Alaska - 3 votes (14.7) are Lean Rep.

With 270 to win, Trump needs to keep all Rep votes (Iowa, Ohio and Texas) and win the 40 Toss-Up votes (Ga, NC). That would give him 228. Flipping Arizona and Florida would add 40 more - 268. Adding Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania or NH would put him over.

 

[IrishLax]

YouGov polled on Harris vs Pence and Biden vs Pence after Trump was hospitalized.

Harris vs Pence is within the margin of error, Biden vs Pence was still a sizable lead but Pence polled 2 points better than Trump did.

A lot of potential takeaway from this polling, but it indicates 1) at least as of Friday/Saturday Trump did not get a sympathy bump 2) Biden is appealing to a group of voters that would otherwise likely vote for a Republican over a generic Democrat candidate like Harris.

I think Trump's best path to victory is to pivot away from attacks on things no one cares about and pivot towards attacking wedge issues Pro-Choice vs Pro-Life, etc.

 

[Irishize]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rFRewkdDT2g" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Irish#1]

YouGov polled on Harris vs Pence and Biden vs Pence after Trump was hospitalized.

Harris vs Pence is within the margin of error, Biden vs Pence was still a sizable lead but Pence polled 2 points better than Trump did.

A lot of potential takeaway from this polling, but it indicates 1) at least as of Friday/Saturday Trump did not get a sympathy bump 2) Biden is appealing to a group of voters that would otherwise likely vote for a Republican over a generic Democrat candidate like Harris.

I think Trump's best path to victory is to pivot away from attacks on things no one cares about and pivot towards attacking wedge issues Pro-Choice vs Pro-Life, etc.

Really didn't think he would. His personality doesn't lend itself to people feeling empathy for him.

 

[Legacy]

538's Presidential Electoral Map for paths to Presidency.

 

[IrishLax]

Fox's propaganda is actually quite amazing. Joh Biden hasn't contracted COVID so he cant relate to Americans with COVID like Trump can (now).

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"He has experience now fighting the coronavirus ... those first-hand experiences, Joe Biden doesn't have those" -- Trump campaign spokesperson <a href="https://twitter.com/ErinMPerrine?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ErinMPerrine</a> attacks Joe Biden for not getting coronavirus <a href="https://t.co/wRMGOVUpc1">pic.twitter.com/wRMGOVUpc1</a></p>— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) <a href="https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1313147203934916611?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It's going to be a very desperate 4 weeks. Post-COVID polls coming out today are showing no bump and Trump down 8-10 points. Post-debate WSJ poll showed him down 14 points. He's within the margin of error of losing Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. He's down 7+ points in Pennsylvania which he MUST win to have any electoral shot short of pulling off multiple other crazy upsets.

So they need to make big moves with time running out, or they're going to need to rely on the courts to throw out millions of Democrat ballots.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

It's going to be a very desperate 4 weeks. Post-COVID polls coming out today are showing no bump and Trump down 8-10 points. Post-debate WSJ poll showed him down 14 points. He's within the margin of error of losing Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. He's down 7+ points in Pennsylvania which he MUST win to have any electoral shot short of pulling off multiple other crazy upsets.

So they need to make big moves with time running out, or they're going to need to rely on the courts to throw out millions of Democrat ballots.

It will be this. He is gonna get crushed. He will claim rigged election (as he has already been laying the ground work for), he has sabotaged the USPS, has Republican governors helping suppress turnout (Texas and Georgia), and is now attacking voting rules in small counties in big states. Texas governor has restricted absentee ballot dropoff for Harris county to a SINGLE location. Harris county has a population larger than Rhode Island. This is insane that this is allowed to occur.

I received an email from the Trump Army today asking for volunteers to be poll watchers. In my state the rule for challenging a person's ability to vote is simply walking up to a poll worker in private and stating I believe this person is inelligble or already voted. The poll worker is required by law to address this prior to the person voting. Imagine 10s of Trumps poll watchers at any location in tight precincts selectively charging people with inelligbility to muck up the system, slow down voting and shorten lines with delays at places that are already condensed by Republican governors and lines extended due to COVID social distancing. This is the stuff of nightmares.

The period between election day and inauguration is gonna be disgusting.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“The Democrat in the race CLAIMS he’s against child sex trafficking. But does he have the experience? Vote Roy Moore!” <a href="https://t.co/0f8fmbyE0c">https://t.co/0f8fmbyE0c</a></p>— SHOUTINGVARIOUSTHINGSHat (@Popehat) <a href="https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1313161375603019776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishLax]

A+ rated poll from NYT/Siena has Biden up +8 in Arizona and Mark Kelly blowing out McSally by +11.

Arizona hasn’t voted Democrat in over 2 decades.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.<br>Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race<a href="https://t.co/fyXkzWiFCO">https://t.co/fyXkzWiFCO</a></p>— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313160835485884417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[tussin]

It's going to be a very desperate 4 weeks. Post-COVID polls coming out today are showing no bump and Trump down 8-10 points. Post-debate WSJ poll showed him down 14 points. He's within the margin of error of losing Texas, Georgia, and Iowa. He's down 7+ points in Pennsylvania which he MUST win to have any electoral shot short of pulling off multiple other crazy upsets.

So they need to make big moves with time running out, or they're going to need to rely on the courts to throw out millions of Democrat ballots.

I think it's over. The polls appear to be beyond the margin of error. Something crazy will need to happen for him to have a chance. All Biden needs to do is sit in his basement and not die.

I say this as a neo-con that generally hates almost all aspects of the Dem agenda. I hope that if Trump loses it's bad enough that it's clear he should concede on election night.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

A+ rated poll from NYT/Siena has Biden up +8 in Arizona and Mark Kelly blowing out McSally by +11.

Arizona hasn’t voted Democrat in over 2 decades.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Arizona, 49 to 41 percent, in a new Times/Siena survey.<br>Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally, 50 to 39 percent, in the US Senate race<a href="https://t.co/fyXkzWiFCO">https://t.co/fyXkzWiFCO</a></p>— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313160835485884417?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In SC (normally 15+ GOP) Trump only up as low as 2 pts and high as 8 pts (538 aggregate is 5.5 Trump) depending on poll as of 10/3.

Register voter poll from 10/3 has Trump +2 (yikes)
Graham is in a statistical tie with Jamie Harrison for the Senate seat.

538 has Sienna as right leaning as well. ( 0.3 point bias)

 

[RDU Irish]

Cal Cunningham - seriously only needed to keep it in his pants until election day and somehow gets ousted as a John Edwards wannabe one month before the election. Thom Tillis might actually have a shot now but probably still loses.

I still cannot fathom who is being polled for any of these polls. What kind of special do you have to be to answer that call?

 

[tussin]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">Wow <a href="https://t.co/RqxZtSSFl0">pic.twitter.com/RqxZtSSFl0</a></p>— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1313241891153031171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

More videos like this could help Trump... if the media would bother to cover them. Posted this in the other thread and meant to post it here.

 

[TorontoGold]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr">Wow <a href="https://t.co/RqxZtSSFl0">pic.twitter.com/RqxZtSSFl0</a></p>— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) <a href="https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1313241891153031171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

More videos like this could help Trump... if the media would bother to cover them. Posted this in the other thread and meant to post it here.

Yeah if only people listened to reliable and non-biased media sources such as....Jack Posobiec! Hell, Richard Spencer! Andy Ngo! All those classic centrist media types.

 

[tussin]

Yeah if only people listened to reliable and non-biased media sources such as....Jack Posobiec! Hell, Richard Spencer! Andy Ngo! All those classic centrist media types.

I honestly don’t even know who that guy is. Are you suggesting that video is doctored?

 

[TorontoGold]

I honestly don’t even know who that guy is. Are you suggesting that video is doctored?

I'm suggesting those that claim MSM is poisoning everyone's minds, should do a bit more research before posting content from an alt-right figurehead.

Pizzagate, Seth Rich, white genocide, the 1488 code - are all topics that he has pushed.

Why would anyone trust anything he has pushed?

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm suggesting those that claim MSM is poisoning everyone's minds, should do a bit more research before posting content from an alt-right figurehead.

Pizzagate, Seth Rich, white genocide, the 1488 code - are all topics that he has pushed.

Why would anyone trust anything he has pushed?

Get a clue. It's a vid. It's not an opinion piece, or some biased network telling you how to feel or vote. It's a vid everyone can watch and make up their own mind. If a neo nazi posted a vid of Trump saying he paid Russians to interfere, no one would care it was a neo nazi that posted it.

 

[tussin]

I'm suggesting those that claim MSM is poisoning everyone's minds, should do a bit more research before posting content from an alt-right figurehead.

Pizzagate, Seth Rich, white genocide, the 1488 code - are all topics that he has pushed.

Why would anyone trust anything he has pushed?

What does this have to do with who published the tweet? I'll go find the same video from another source if you'd like.

That's actual footage of Joe Biden speaking at a campaign event... does he seem "with it" to you?