2018 - The Path to 12-0

[Irish YJ]

For the past couple weeks, had a lot of discussions about our path the rest of the year, and how we will match up vs other teams. Here's a comparison of ND and our remaining opponents. BYE WEEK BOREDOM while I watch Stanford/ASU and wait for laundry.

Showing ranks. Best/Worst are based on current rankings. Top 25 stats in red

ND 7-0
Saragin SoS: 34
Stock up/down: up/even
Best Win: Meatchicken
Best Loss: NA
Worst Win: BSU, based on non-P5 and their record over the last 3 years
Worst Loss: NA

Offense
Yards p/g: 49
Points p/g: 47
Passing yards p/g: 54
Rushing yards p/g: 60

Defense
Yards p/g: 34
Points p/g: 22
Passing yards p/g: 54
Rushing yards p/g: 35
Sacks 43
INTs 27


Navy (@San Diego) 2-4
Saragin SoS: 89
Stock up/down: down
Best Win: Memphis 22-21
Best Loss: @SMU OT 31-30
Worst Win: Memphis
Worst Loss: @AF 35-7

Offense
Yards p/g: 101
Points p/g: 75
Passing yards p/g: 130
Rushing yards p/g: 3

Defense
Yards p/g: 74
Points p/g: 98
Passing yards p/g: 71
Rushing yards p/g: 76
Sacks 123
INTs 59

@Northwestern 3-3
Saragin SoS: 8
Stock up/down: up
Best Win: @MichSt 29-19
Best Loss: Michigan 20-17
Worst Win: Nebraska 34-31 OT
Worst Loss: Akron 39-34

Offense
Yards p/g: 82
Points p/g: 97
Passing yards p/g: 11
Rushing yards p/g: 129

Defense
Yards p/g: 84
Points p/g: 71
Passing yards p/g: 102
Rushing yards p/g: 59
Sacks 103
INTs 41

Florida State 3-3
Saragin SoS: 39
Stock up/down: even/up
Best Win: Louisville 28-24
Best Loss: @Miami 28-27
Worst Win: Samford 36-26
Worst Loss: @Syracuse 30-7

Offense
Yards p/g: 112
Points p/g: 113
Passing yards p/g: 50
Rushing yards p/g: 126

Defense
Yards p/g: 62
Points p/g: 61
Passing yards p/g: 111
Rushing yards p/g: 8
Sacks 22
INTs 41

Syracuse 4-2
Saragin SoS: 83
Stock up/down: even/down
Best Win: FSU 30-7
Best Loss: @Clemson 27-23
Worst Win: WMU 55-42
Worst Loss: @Pitt 44-37 OT

Offense
Yards p/g: 30
Points p/g: 11
Passing yards p/g: 67
Rushing yards p/g: 25

Defense
Yards p/g: 82
Points p/g: 61
Passing yards p/g: 61
Rushing yards p/g: 91
Sacks 13
INTs 10

@USC 4-2
Saragin SoS: 11
Stock up/down: up
Best Win: Colorado 31-20
Best Loss: @Stanford 17-3 or @TX 37-14
Worst Win: @AZ 24-20
Worst Loss: @TX 37-14

Offense
Yards p/g: 88
Points p/g: 92
Passing yards p/g: 44
Rushing yards p/g: 112

Defense
Yards p/g: 50
Points p/g: 61
Passing yards p/g: 50
Rushing yards p/g: 61
Sacks 68
INTs 118

 

[Irish YJ]

I typically do something similar in the game day threads the night or so before, but decided to package it.

In short, the last two worry me the most. Both on the road, but for different reasons. Syracuse actually has some decent stats to their game, and have showed competitive to some big guys. USC, because I think they will be improved at the end of the year, will likely not be in the hunt for the PAC (so we're their last chance to F someone), and simply because it's USC, and @ USC.

NW only worries me if our DBs fall asleep or get a case of the runs. FSU only worries me if they knock out Book. Navy's D sucks and our DL is probably quicker than they have been in many years.

Hope our OL can gel over the next 3 games before we play the last two games.

 

[Irishize]

The run game is my main concern. When CBK gave a reason for not committing to the run early, he used “8 in the box” as the reason. To me, that flashes back to the BVG days when that was a common refrain. Hopefully, that was just coachspeak and he’ll recommit to a balanced attack.

A RB like Dexter Williams only needs a small crease to bust one. Without that threat, ND can expect to see similar schemes to what Pitt employed but in some cases like NW & SC...they will be better defenses.

 

[dad4aa]

The run game is my main concern. When CBK gave a reason for not committing to the run early, he used “8 in the box” as the reason. To me, that flashes back to the BVG days when that was a common refrain. Hopefully, that was just coachspeak and he’ll recommit to a balanced attack.

A RB like Dexter Williams only needs a small crease to bust one. Without that threat, ND can expect to see similar schemes to what Pitt employed but in some cases like NW & SC...they will be better defenses.

If the defense has "8 in the box" we should be passing not running. As good as Book is with the quick release and accuracy, that will make them drop some of those guys off and open up the run game. I hope we don't commit to the run early against a defense that is stacking the box and daring us to throw. It worked against BW bc he lacked the accuracy and read progression ability. It won't work against Book.

Not sure what you want by balanced attack:

Stanford Pass - 33 run - 55
VTech pass - 35 run - 32
Pitt pass - 32 run 38

While the Pitt game is probably skewed a bit due to Ian scrambling from the blitz, it has been pretty balanced since Dex came back and Ian took over.

 

[BoredIrish]

I typically do something similar in the game day threads the night or so before, but decided to package it.

In short, the last two worry me the most. Both on the road, but for different reasons. Syracuse actually has some decent stats to their game, and have showed competitive to some big guys. USC, because I think they will be improved at the end of the year, will likely not be in the hunt for the PAC (so we're their last chance to F someone), and simply because it's USC, and @ USC.

NW only worries me if our DBs fall asleep or get a case of the runs. FSU only worries me if they knock out Book. Navy's D sucks and our DL is probably quicker than they have been in many years.

Hope our OL can gel over the next 3 games before we play the last two games.

I think USC still wins the PAC 12 south... just because someone has to. So with a spot in the Pac 12 championship game locked up, they may have nothing left to play for.

 

[stlnd01]

I think USC still wins the PAC 12 south... just because someone has to. So with a spot in the Pac 12 championship game locked up, they may have nothing left to play for.

If they run the table, as they should if they get past Utah, they’ll be 9-2, probably in the top 15, with a shot to derail their hated rival’s playoff hopes. That seems like something to play for.

 

[Irishize]

 

[Irish YJ]

I think USC still wins the PAC 12 south... just because someone has to. So with a spot in the Pac 12 championship game locked up, they may have nothing left to play for.

Agreed. For some reason I thought they had two more difficult road games. They only have Utah. If Utah beats them, Utah will lead the South (tie breaker), but Utah has a much more difficult path after. Colorado, if they could beat Washington, still have a chance if USC loses to @Utah.

Regardless, I'm still worried about that game most. USC would love to be the team that F'd us out of the final four.

 

[Irish YJ]

updated. showing trend/change over last game.
will drop in the Navy thread too.

Navy (@San Diego) 2-5 (streak L4)
Saragin SoS: 85 (up 4)
Stock up/down: down
Best Win: Memphis 22-21
Best Loss: @SMU OT 31-30
Worst Win: Memphis
Worst Loss: @AF 35-7

Offense
Yards p/g: 81 (up 20)
Points p/g: 64 (up 11)
Passing yards p/g: 129 (up 1)
Rushing yards p/g: 3 (NC)

Defense
Yards p/g: 94 (down 20)
Points p/g: 107 (down 9)
Passing yards p/g: 103 (down 32)
Rushing yards p/g: 74 (up 2)
Sacks 123 (NC)
INTs 59 (NC)

Gave up a lot of yards/points to Houston, so not surprised at the trending.

Book and the WR/TEs should have a very big day. Unless they are hiding a passing attack, our D should do fine. SHOULD.

As Whiskey said, say a little prayer to Saint Rocco for our OL.

 

[Irish YJ]

Notre Dame’s Playoff Possibilities & Opponents: One looks better and the other still average

https://irish.nbcsports.com/2018/10...one-looks-better-and-the-other-still-average/

Navy (2-5): Statistically, it looks like a normal Navy output, rushing for 349 yards on 67 carries, a 5.2 average, but it was not enough to overcome Houston’s 413 passing yards in a 49-36 Cougars victory.

Navy now hosts Notre Dame in San Diego (8 ET; CBS) in a game that had its time slot determined back in the summer. The Irish are favored by 23.5 with an over/under of 54 speaking to a 39-15 finale.

Northwestern (4-3): It is a result of the schedule that the Wildcats remain in the division title conversation in the Big Ten West, but they do thanks to an 18-15 victory at Rutgers. Ahh, 2018, when “Big Ten West” and “Rutgers” logically fit in the same sentence.

Northwestern’s title hopes will be on the line against Wisconsin this weekend (12 ET; FOX) as touchdown underdogs with an over/under of 51. That feels like too many total points. This is still Big Ten West football, right?

Florida State (4-3): With the 38-17 victory against Wake Forest, the Seminoles are averaging 32.5 points per game in their last four games. They will need every one of those against Clemson (12 ET; ABC) as 16.5-point underdogs. The over/under of 51 indicates Florida State may hardly reach half that average, an expected final score of 34-17.

Syracuse (5-2): The Orange needed double overtime to beat North Carolina 40-37, turning to sophomore quarterback Tommy DeVito to do so, benching four-year starter Eric Dungey. Their Saturday stat lines:
Dungey: 17-of-33 for 225 yards; 15 rushes for 42 yards and a score.
DeVito: 11-of-19 for 181 yards and three touchdowns.

Head coach Dino Babers has yet to commit to either quarterback against N.C. State (7 ET; ESPN2), indicating he has some loyalty to a four-year starter who has played through injuries throughout his career. Syracuse is a 2.5-point underdog, but that line will move quickly if a starter is leaked, especially if it is DeVito.

USC (4-3): The story is about the Trojans’ quarterbacks getting banged up. That ignores the fact that their defense gave up 541 yards, 27 first downs and 34 unanswered points in a 41-28 loss at Utah.

Arizona State (3:30 ET; ABC/ESPN2) will look to rack up similar damage even though USC is favored by 6.5 with an over/under of 54.5.

 

[OhioIrish31]

Northwestern and SoreExcuse (in that order) are the two teams I'm most concerned with down the stretch. Not looking past the Midshipmen but if we don't throttle them I'll be surprised.

 

[Irish YJ]

Northwestern and SoreExcuse (in that order) are the two teams I'm most concerned with down the stretch. Not looking past the Midshipmen but if we don't throttle them I'll be surprised.

For me at this moment, it's

Syracuse
NW
USC
FSU

 

[Legacy]

Scoring Defense (and Offense) for remaining opponents (vs Power 5 opponents)

Northwestern - 21.4 (Scoring Offense 23.9)
Florida State - 30.3 (Scoring Off - 18.8)
Syracuse - 31.2 (Scoring Off 36.2)
USC - 29.9 (Scoring Off - 24.9)

 

[Irish YJ]

Florida State Game

Florida State Game

Stat rankings
Top 25 stats in RED

ND 9-0
Saragin SoS: 46
Stock up/down: up/even
Best Win: Meatchicken
Best Loss: NA
Worst Win: BSU
Worst Loss: NA

Offense
Yards p/g: 33
Points p/g: 33
Passing yards p/g: 35
Rushing yards p/g: 54

Defense
Yards p/g: 26
Points p/g: 19
Passing yards p/g: 26
Rushing yards p/g: 41
Sacks 46 tie
INTs 47 tie


Florida State 4-5
Saragin SoS: 35
Stock up/down: down
Best Win: Louisville 28-24
Best Loss: @Miami 28-27
Worst Win: Samford 36-26
Worst Loss: Clemson 59-10

Offense
Yards p/g: 107
Points p/g: 105
Passing yards p/g: 23
Rushing yards p/g: 128

Defense
Yards p/g: 65
Points p/g: 85
Passing yards p/g: 121
Rushing yards p/g: 17
Sacks 23 tie
INTs 47 tie

 

[drayer54]

That's fascinating. Guess we should be grateful to not have to grace the unfriendly confines of... Jack Trice Stadium.


Cuse is the only one that scares me.

They can do stuff. USC sucks. FSU is bad enough that Wimbush can play.

 

[Irish YJ]

That's fascinating. Guess we should be grateful to not have to grace the unfriendly confines of... Jack Trice Stadium.


Cuse is the only one that scares me.

They can do stuff. USC sucks. FSU is bad enough that Wimbush can play.

I hate when people say we're always a team's "superbowl", but this year, we absolutely are USC's superbowl, and last chance to F someone. Agree that Cuse are the toughest remaining, but USC still concerns me.

 

[BeatSC]

They can do stuff. USC sucks. FSU is bad enough that Wimbush can play.

Got to defend Wimbush. He was great against USC last year and plays really well when playing with a lead.

 

[Irishize]

I hate when people say we're always a team's "superbowl", but this year, we absolutely are USC's superbowl, and last chance to F someone. Agree that Cuse are the toughest remaining, but USC still concerns me.

As Lou Somogyi says, the LA Coliseum is the equivalent of the Wailing Wall to ND fans. Go look at the history of undefeated ND teams rolling into the Coliseum to play middling SC teams. ND better not let SC keep it close b/c if they put the outcome into the hands of the refs, they will lose.

 

[IrishLax]

Should go post this on NDNation.

 

[Irish YJ]

Should go post this on NDNation.

or.... mgoblog

 

[Irish YJ]

As Lou Somogyi says, the LA Coliseum is the equivalent of the Wailing Wall to ND fans. Go look at the history of undefeated ND teams rolling into the Coliseum to play middling SC teams. ND better not let SC keep it close b/c if they put the outcome into the hands of the refs, they will lose.

i really do think this team is different. i believe the players will take each of the remaining games seriously. my only concern is play calling. it long/bk calls another shit 2Q i'm going to lose my mind. also afraid i'm going to see stud ND DLs dropping back a lot vs FSU. couldn't believe my eyes on a few plays vs NW.

 

[BGIF]

As Lou Somogyi says, the LA Coliseum is the equivalent of the Wailing Wall to ND fans. Go look at the history of undefeated ND teams rolling into the Coliseum to play middling SC teams. ND better not let SC keep it close b/c if they put the outcome into the hands of the refs, they will lose.

1964 and the phantom penalty.

Sometime in the 80's USA Today had a sports page graphic showing the teams that had the most undefeated seasons wrecked in the last game of the regular season ND and USC were 1 and 2. IIRC, they did that mostly to each other as victim and culprit.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Got to defend Wimbush. He was great against USC last year and plays really well when playing with a lead.

Has Wimbush played at all since Book took over? I mean, anything at all?

I cant imagine him being very happy at all. Go from started to never seeing the field at all. You just have to assume he is transferring soon as the season is over.

 

[pumpdog20]

That's fascinating. Guess we should be grateful to not have to grace the unfriendly confines of... Jack Trice Stadium.


Cuse is the only one that scares me.

They can do stuff. USC sucks. FSU is bad enough that Wimbush can play.

This guy! This guy jinxed us!

 

[Irish YJ]

Stat rankings
Top 25 stats in RED

ND 10-0
Saragin SoS: 49
Stock up/down: up/even
Best Win: Meatchicken
Best Loss: NA
Worst Win: BSU
Worst Loss: NA

Offense (25th Efficiency)
Yards p/g: 27
Points p/g: 31
Passing yards p/g: 46
Rushing yards p/g: 42

Defense (15th Efficiency)
Yards p/g: 25
Points p/g: 15
Passing yards p/g: 29
Rushing yards p/g: 41
Sacks 52T
INTs 44T

=================================================

Syracuse 8-2
Saragin SoS: 77
Stock up/down: up
Best Win: NC State 51-41
Best Loss: Clemson 27-23
Worst Win: North Carolina 40-37 2OT
Worst Loss: Pitt 44-37 OT

Offense (51st Efficiency)
Yards p/g: 14
Points p/g: 7
Passing yards p/g: 36
Rushing yards p/g: 27

Defense (21st Efficiency)
Yards p/g: 97
Points p/g: 70
Passing yards p/g: 107
Rushing yards p/g: 70
Sacks: 9
INTs: 6T

===================================================

Match up ND O vs Syracuse D 25 vs 21 Efficiency (+4)
Yards p/g: 27 vs 97 (-70)
Points p/g: 31 vs 70 (-39)
Passing yards p/g: 46 vs 107 (-61)
Rushing yards p/g: 42 vs 70 (-28)

Match up ND D vs Syracuse O 15 vs 51 Efficiency (-36)
Yards p/g: 25 vs 14 (+11)
Points p/g: 15 vs 7 (+8)
Passing yards p/g: 29 vs 36 (-7)
Rushing yards p/g: 41 vs 27 (+14)


=============================================

A few head scratchers on the Cuse #s....
-Top 25 in pure ranks in a few O categories (pts and yards), but not very efficient
-Horrible looking defensive pure ranks, but very efficient, and also high in sacks and INTs