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2016 Notre Dame Preview
Notre Dame enters this year #1 in pretty much all "media" style polls and #2 in the coaches poll behind reigning champ Denver. What's weird about this team is that despite returning three 1st team All-Americans I'd argue that the squad has an incredible amount of question marks, unproven players, and holes relative to some teams of the past. Does individual talent carry the day? Or is chemistry and cohesiveness an issue? Here is a breakdown of how the team looks by position group.
Attack
Notre Dame returns 1st Team All-American and Tewaaraton finalist Matt Kavanagh alongside dominant finisher Mikey Wynne. Wynne was second on the team in scoring last year as a true freshman, and will only be better this year. Kavanagh -- the king of clutch -- returns from multiple debilitating injuries that required surgery and significantly limited him over virtually the entire season. The question mark comes with replacing leading point producer Conor Doyle at the other attack position. Wynne is strictly an inside-out player and not much of an initiator or dodger. He's the kind of guy who will kill you if you slide off of him, but isn't going to create offense for other players. Kavanagh lives on the "lefty" wing and at X behind the goal. So who steps in for Doyle at the "righty" position?
The problem is that most of the known quantities and top prospects are lefties. Eddy Lubowicki -- who has produced exceptionally well on the EMO -- is suited best for playing on the wing where Kavanagh stars. Incoming #2 overall recruit Ryder Garnsey is a dynamic dodger and perfectly suited for the role of initiator... but he is also a lefty. The dark horses for the sport are Anthony Marini and Carl Walrath. Marini is a shifty, pint-sized dodger who played very well this offseason but hasn't shown much on the field since arriving in South Bend. Carl Walrath was once the #5 recruit in the country, but was the odd-man-out at UVA... before getting kicked off the team for punching a cop. Can anyone imagine ND football taking a graduate transfer that got kicked out of their previous school and did jail time for assaulting a police officer? The other names in the mix are all complete unknowns like Tyler Ruhl or possible midfielder conversions like Pierre Byrne or Bobby Gray.
What's most likely is that Corrigan will be multiple with the position for at least the early part of the year, and possibly run the 3rd attackman out of the box like the Irish did many times with Doyle. It wouldn't be surprising to see Notre Dame play effectively four "midfielders" at times to compliment Wynne and Kavanagh who will be the two permanents on offense. Hopefully, someone steps up and solidifies the position sooner rather than later.
Midfield
Another position that returns a 1st Team All-American but also loses a number of multi-year mainstays. Back is unstoppable force of nature Sergio Perkovic, gone are Nick Ossello, Jim Marlatt, and Will Corrigan. Maybe most importantly, dominant two-way midfielder and top MLL draft pick Jack Near leaves a huge void at that position. Near was unique in his ability to play truly elite defense and also push transition better than pretty much any "defensive" player in the NCAA.
On the first line, you may see more addition-by-subtraction with the departure of Will Corrigan. Brendan Collins seems likely to shift from a SSDM role to a featured position on the first line. He's similar to Ossello in athleticism, but with more of a refined offensive game. Collins was shockingly good on offense this fall. So the first line of midfielders will feature Perkovic, a seamless Ossello fill-in, and then a mystery man that should -- at minimum -- provide more of an athletic, dodging threat than Corrigan was. Many people right now think that Notre Dame will rotate players at that spot to keep opposing defenses off balance, including some of the aforementioned attackmen.
The second line will be comprised of a lot of unproven players or guys that haven't shown great things in the minutes they've gotten. Trevor Brosco, Ben Pridemore, Cole Riccardi, Bobby Gray, Pierre Byrne, Jordan Walter, and Timmy Phillips are the guys you hear the most about in terms of making an impact on the second line or that last first line spot. Can Brosco and Pridemore turn the corner and become impact players? Do the coaches value the consistency of someone like Cole Riccardi? Or do they roll the dice with some young guns? Lots and lots of question marks.
What also makes things difficult is that some bodies will be needed at SSDM. Notre Dame generally likes to run at least 3 and typically 4 or more players at that position to keep them fresh. With Collins moving into a key offensive role, that leaves on Nick Koshansky and Robert Collins as proven SSDM players. Are any of those guys listed above... especially players with lots of athletic ability like Timmy Phillips... asked to play primarily defense like Collins was last year? Or do the new bodies come from reserves?
Defense
Probably the most loaded defensive team in the country, and certainly so outside of the goalie position. Shane Doss is a very streaky netminder, but the guys in front of him are going to be downright nasty this year. This is the one position where there are no question marks and no holes to fill... just lots of soul crushers. Matt Landis is the returning 1st Team All-American and top 5 MLL draft pick. If I was making a 30-for-30 on this defense, the tagline would be "What if I told you, Matt Landis wasn't even the best defender on his team?"... because Garrett Epple is criminally under appreciated. Landis rightfully gets accolades and credit for being a versatile, shutdown* defender... but Epple is a takeaway artist and Hoover vacuum. Nobody does a better job of getting the ball back than him. Stats often lie, but in this case they paint a clear picture of how dominant Epple can be. He had nearly 50% more caused turnovers than any other defender and scooped up the most groundballs of anyone on the team which is absolutely unheard of for a close defender.** Remember, Matt Landis is universally considered the best defender in the country... so what does that make Epple?
The forgotten man in the bunch is Eddy Glazener. Glazener is more famous for his bagpipe talents than play on the field, but that's only because he's overshadowed by two aforementioned superstars. The truth is that he's a very good player, and shows it on the field. If he wasn't good, then any of the bevvy of talented defenders waiting in the wings would take his spot. At LSM, look for John Sexton to headline the group with contributions from a number of other defenders. Expect freshman Hugh Crance to get some runs alongside Pat Healy.
*Landis gets some undue credit because Notre Dame's system makes it very hard to get "beat"... but his footwork and stickwork are fantastic. Whereas you will see Matt Kavanagh routinely beat his man and score, it is exceptionally rare to see Landis get blown by.
**Epple at times played on the wing for faceoffs, which inflates his groundball total significantly. But the reason he played on the wing is that he is a freaking monster at GBs.
Specialists
The most glaring hole on the Notre Dame team, by far, is at the faceoff dot. Neither PJ Finley nor John Travisiano have shown to be dominant draw takers, and if Notre Dame cannot keep it near 50% against other elite teams that could spell doom for the Irish. Pray that these players take a big step forward in production.
On EMO, Notre Dame replaces Conor Doyle and Jim Marlatt. Notre Dame basically plays a 2-3-1 on their EMO offense with Lubowicki at X, Kavanagh on the right wing, Wynne on the crease, and Perkovic at the top of the box on the right side. The motion comes from Kavanagh rotating through the crease and Lubowicki stepping up into that wing spot Kavanagh vacated... so there is effectively no schematic change to where most of the offense came from the past two years.
Marlatt played at the top of the box on the left side, and Doyle played on the left wing. So you're looking for someone with a big shot and good stick skills to replace Marlatt, and a right-handed attackman with good finishing ability and facilitating skills to replace Doyle. My money would be on Marini to step in for Doyle and either Collins or a reserve player like Bartolo to fill in for Marlatt. The EMO offense should not miss a beat as long as the Marlatt fill in is a serious threat from long range.
Season Projection
If Notre Dame can get consistent play at the faceoff dot and in cage there is no doubt that they are the best team in the country. Few teams have three bonafide superstars like the Irish, and even fewer have "secondary" players the caliber of Wynne, Epple, and Collins.
Notre Dame's schedule is a gauntlet featuring the majority of the top 10. Notre Dame opens with three winnable games where they can find their footing before heading into six straight against elite competition/rivals. Decent Marquette and Army teams worked in around UNC and the ACC tournament to close the year.
A reasonable expectation would be a 2 or 3 loss season for Notre Dame given the caliber of their opponents. Notre Dame is the favorite to win the ACC, and should garner a seed for the NCAA tournament. There is a large talent gap between the top 8ish teams and the rest of the field, and beyond that most teams outside of Denver, Notre Dame, Duke, and Maryland seem to have serious question marks. This doesn't mean they might not be very good or championship caliber, but it does mean that the high expectations for Notre Dame are reasonable. Anything other than a final four appearance would be a sore disappointment... and this is the year that Notre Dame is best equipped to win a national championship if they can find players to adequately fill the big holes on offense, get consistent play with a 55% save percentage in goal, and win at least 50% of their faceoffs.
Notre Dame enters this year #1 in pretty much all "media" style polls and #2 in the coaches poll behind reigning champ Denver. What's weird about this team is that despite returning three 1st team All-Americans I'd argue that the squad has an incredible amount of question marks, unproven players, and holes relative to some teams of the past. Does individual talent carry the day? Or is chemistry and cohesiveness an issue? Here is a breakdown of how the team looks by position group.
Attack
Notre Dame returns 1st Team All-American and Tewaaraton finalist Matt Kavanagh alongside dominant finisher Mikey Wynne. Wynne was second on the team in scoring last year as a true freshman, and will only be better this year. Kavanagh -- the king of clutch -- returns from multiple debilitating injuries that required surgery and significantly limited him over virtually the entire season. The question mark comes with replacing leading point producer Conor Doyle at the other attack position. Wynne is strictly an inside-out player and not much of an initiator or dodger. He's the kind of guy who will kill you if you slide off of him, but isn't going to create offense for other players. Kavanagh lives on the "lefty" wing and at X behind the goal. So who steps in for Doyle at the "righty" position?
The problem is that most of the known quantities and top prospects are lefties. Eddy Lubowicki -- who has produced exceptionally well on the EMO -- is suited best for playing on the wing where Kavanagh stars. Incoming #2 overall recruit Ryder Garnsey is a dynamic dodger and perfectly suited for the role of initiator... but he is also a lefty. The dark horses for the sport are Anthony Marini and Carl Walrath. Marini is a shifty, pint-sized dodger who played very well this offseason but hasn't shown much on the field since arriving in South Bend. Carl Walrath was once the #5 recruit in the country, but was the odd-man-out at UVA... before getting kicked off the team for punching a cop. Can anyone imagine ND football taking a graduate transfer that got kicked out of their previous school and did jail time for assaulting a police officer? The other names in the mix are all complete unknowns like Tyler Ruhl or possible midfielder conversions like Pierre Byrne or Bobby Gray.
What's most likely is that Corrigan will be multiple with the position for at least the early part of the year, and possibly run the 3rd attackman out of the box like the Irish did many times with Doyle. It wouldn't be surprising to see Notre Dame play effectively four "midfielders" at times to compliment Wynne and Kavanagh who will be the two permanents on offense. Hopefully, someone steps up and solidifies the position sooner rather than later.
Midfield
Another position that returns a 1st Team All-American but also loses a number of multi-year mainstays. Back is unstoppable force of nature Sergio Perkovic, gone are Nick Ossello, Jim Marlatt, and Will Corrigan. Maybe most importantly, dominant two-way midfielder and top MLL draft pick Jack Near leaves a huge void at that position. Near was unique in his ability to play truly elite defense and also push transition better than pretty much any "defensive" player in the NCAA.
On the first line, you may see more addition-by-subtraction with the departure of Will Corrigan. Brendan Collins seems likely to shift from a SSDM role to a featured position on the first line. He's similar to Ossello in athleticism, but with more of a refined offensive game. Collins was shockingly good on offense this fall. So the first line of midfielders will feature Perkovic, a seamless Ossello fill-in, and then a mystery man that should -- at minimum -- provide more of an athletic, dodging threat than Corrigan was. Many people right now think that Notre Dame will rotate players at that spot to keep opposing defenses off balance, including some of the aforementioned attackmen.
The second line will be comprised of a lot of unproven players or guys that haven't shown great things in the minutes they've gotten. Trevor Brosco, Ben Pridemore, Cole Riccardi, Bobby Gray, Pierre Byrne, Jordan Walter, and Timmy Phillips are the guys you hear the most about in terms of making an impact on the second line or that last first line spot. Can Brosco and Pridemore turn the corner and become impact players? Do the coaches value the consistency of someone like Cole Riccardi? Or do they roll the dice with some young guns? Lots and lots of question marks.
What also makes things difficult is that some bodies will be needed at SSDM. Notre Dame generally likes to run at least 3 and typically 4 or more players at that position to keep them fresh. With Collins moving into a key offensive role, that leaves on Nick Koshansky and Robert Collins as proven SSDM players. Are any of those guys listed above... especially players with lots of athletic ability like Timmy Phillips... asked to play primarily defense like Collins was last year? Or do the new bodies come from reserves?
Defense
Probably the most loaded defensive team in the country, and certainly so outside of the goalie position. Shane Doss is a very streaky netminder, but the guys in front of him are going to be downright nasty this year. This is the one position where there are no question marks and no holes to fill... just lots of soul crushers. Matt Landis is the returning 1st Team All-American and top 5 MLL draft pick. If I was making a 30-for-30 on this defense, the tagline would be "What if I told you, Matt Landis wasn't even the best defender on his team?"... because Garrett Epple is criminally under appreciated. Landis rightfully gets accolades and credit for being a versatile, shutdown* defender... but Epple is a takeaway artist and Hoover vacuum. Nobody does a better job of getting the ball back than him. Stats often lie, but in this case they paint a clear picture of how dominant Epple can be. He had nearly 50% more caused turnovers than any other defender and scooped up the most groundballs of anyone on the team which is absolutely unheard of for a close defender.** Remember, Matt Landis is universally considered the best defender in the country... so what does that make Epple?
The forgotten man in the bunch is Eddy Glazener. Glazener is more famous for his bagpipe talents than play on the field, but that's only because he's overshadowed by two aforementioned superstars. The truth is that he's a very good player, and shows it on the field. If he wasn't good, then any of the bevvy of talented defenders waiting in the wings would take his spot. At LSM, look for John Sexton to headline the group with contributions from a number of other defenders. Expect freshman Hugh Crance to get some runs alongside Pat Healy.
*Landis gets some undue credit because Notre Dame's system makes it very hard to get "beat"... but his footwork and stickwork are fantastic. Whereas you will see Matt Kavanagh routinely beat his man and score, it is exceptionally rare to see Landis get blown by.
**Epple at times played on the wing for faceoffs, which inflates his groundball total significantly. But the reason he played on the wing is that he is a freaking monster at GBs.
Specialists
The most glaring hole on the Notre Dame team, by far, is at the faceoff dot. Neither PJ Finley nor John Travisiano have shown to be dominant draw takers, and if Notre Dame cannot keep it near 50% against other elite teams that could spell doom for the Irish. Pray that these players take a big step forward in production.
On EMO, Notre Dame replaces Conor Doyle and Jim Marlatt. Notre Dame basically plays a 2-3-1 on their EMO offense with Lubowicki at X, Kavanagh on the right wing, Wynne on the crease, and Perkovic at the top of the box on the right side. The motion comes from Kavanagh rotating through the crease and Lubowicki stepping up into that wing spot Kavanagh vacated... so there is effectively no schematic change to where most of the offense came from the past two years.
Marlatt played at the top of the box on the left side, and Doyle played on the left wing. So you're looking for someone with a big shot and good stick skills to replace Marlatt, and a right-handed attackman with good finishing ability and facilitating skills to replace Doyle. My money would be on Marini to step in for Doyle and either Collins or a reserve player like Bartolo to fill in for Marlatt. The EMO offense should not miss a beat as long as the Marlatt fill in is a serious threat from long range.
Season Projection
If Notre Dame can get consistent play at the faceoff dot and in cage there is no doubt that they are the best team in the country. Few teams have three bonafide superstars like the Irish, and even fewer have "secondary" players the caliber of Wynne, Epple, and Collins.
Notre Dame's schedule is a gauntlet featuring the majority of the top 10. Notre Dame opens with three winnable games where they can find their footing before heading into six straight against elite competition/rivals. Decent Marquette and Army teams worked in around UNC and the ACC tournament to close the year.
A reasonable expectation would be a 2 or 3 loss season for Notre Dame given the caliber of their opponents. Notre Dame is the favorite to win the ACC, and should garner a seed for the NCAA tournament. There is a large talent gap between the top 8ish teams and the rest of the field, and beyond that most teams outside of Denver, Notre Dame, Duke, and Maryland seem to have serious question marks. This doesn't mean they might not be very good or championship caliber, but it does mean that the high expectations for Notre Dame are reasonable. Anything other than a final four appearance would be a sore disappointment... and this is the year that Notre Dame is best equipped to win a national championship if they can find players to adequately fill the big holes on offense, get consistent play with a 55% save percentage in goal, and win at least 50% of their faceoffs.
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