Oct 17 | BYU

IrishLax

IrishLax

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jerseyborn1971 said:
Line is probably dropping because bettors are really buying into BYU and probably a little of hoping ND is a fraud.
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SP+ says ND should be a 4 point favorite, which more in line with what you would expect for a true #2 vs #8 matchup with #2 on the road.

The 10+ point lines seem to primarily be baked into the idea that BYU is not as good as their underlying metrics / on field results. Which might be true, but even then you would still expect something more like 7-10 points not 12.5 that it opened at most places.
 
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allenm5333

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Ol is not good. Maybe Bryce Young can be taken off a milk carton this week. He has been MIA the last 2 weeks
 
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tirishman505

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IrishLax said:
SP+ says ND should be a 4 point favorite, which more in line with what you would expect for a true #2 vs #8 matchup with #2 on the road.

The 10+ point lines seem to primarily be baked into the idea that BYU is not as good as their underlying metrics / on field results. Which might be true, but even then you would still expect something more like 7-10 points not 12.5 that it opened at most places.
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Vegas hasn’t trusted BYU all year. I think they’ve covered every game.
 
IrishLax

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Dale said:
Their slot is their #1 WR true freshman Legend Glasker. He’s been explosive, Shipp is more of a technician, hands guy. They have two TE transfers that are solid but not like Thurman. Lyons is a pretty conventional TE, like maybe a tiny bit better pass catcher than Flanagan. The other guy Roger Saleapaga isn’t as explosive as Thurman either but is a big, big target. Big play against Iowa St was the exception this season, he hasn’t been very involved.

Long and short - I would take UNCs guys over BYUs - but Bear is better.
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Glasker is a legit athlete and was way underrated as a recruit. Very impressive and I would expect them to try to scheme up ways to get him open in the middle of the field / matched up on Christian Gray.

Overall, very unimpressed with their skill players, which is why they ask Bear to do so much.
 
jerseyborn1971

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tirishman505 said:
Vegas hasn’t trusted BYU all year. I think they’ve covered every game.
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Even considering who they've played, they've haven't been big favorites over anyone (Outside of Utah Tech). Covering when your 36 point favorites is tough. Winning by 7 when you're a 5.5 pt favorite is a little easer.

  • Week 1 vs Utah Tech — Spread -50, Result 63–7, ATS: Win

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  • Week 2 vs Arizona — Spread -7, Result 28–17, ATS: Win

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  • Week 3 at Colorado State — Spread -17.5, Result 41–23, ATS: Win

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  • Week 5 at TCU — Spread -6, Result 17–10, ATS: Win

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  • Week 6 vs Iowa State — Spread -11, Result 24–10, ATS: Win

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Dale

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I’m fucking dying at the spin move when he sees the CB blitz instead of just throwing to the wide open WR

An aside - I’m highly skeptical Uluave is 6’1 230 as listed.
 
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Dale

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notredomer23 said:
The only way this turns into a sweat is if CJ throws an early pick. I expect BYU to try and jump some routes early like Stanford tried.
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IMG_1235.jpeg

Stanford’s commitment to absolutely getting torched in man is admirable. Smart GM over there
 
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notredomer23

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Dale said:
View attachment 3065234

Stanford’s commitment to absolutely getting torched in man is admirable. Smart GM over there
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I admit I am surprised to see ND in man only around ~50% of the time. We've definitely seen more cover 3 this year but still expected ND to be an outlier in man coverage. And Indiana only 10% man? Wtf.
 
Dale

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notredomer23 said:
I admit I am surprised to see ND in man only around ~50% of the time. We've definitely seen more cover 3 this year but still expected ND to be an outlier in man coverage. And Indiana only 10% man? Wtf.
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Yeah that’s kind of Haines’ thing. A lot more masterful in terms of how he calls it and gets to certain looks, but in the end, he’s playing zone. Chiles tore that zone to shreds.

Ive been saying - think Ash has 100% accomplished a much needed step to win a championship, they have to be able to vary coverages and play different zones. He just shouldn’t have done it WK 1 - 2 of 2025. You can’t just roll the ball out and play Cover 1, not when #4 is likely looming again at some point.
 
NDPhilly

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Barring KVA / Moore not playing I’d be surprised if the spread doesn’t end up back above -11. That might be what they are currently hedging against.
 
NDPhilly

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Very possible we have a MSU-esque game with limited possessions that keeps it close.
 
IrishLax

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NDPhilly said:
Dok Entropy updated this morning - as expected, we're #1, which i believe makes a clean sweep of the major power indexes for the first time in I imagine 30+ years. Wild stuff.

Dok also has a bigger gap in the top team (1-5) then most, and has us as a 18pt!! neutral field favorite against BYU, so say 15 with home field advantage. They've also been incredibly accurate this year (see below).

Updated Dok Ratings
View attachment 3065232


Most Predictive Indexes
View attachment 3065233

ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Football ratings, NFL, NCAA Football Basketball Baseball Computer ratings predictions
www.thepredictiontracker.com
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18 points seems absurd. They only have like ~1 healthy dude that would start for ND though, so maybe this game won't be as close as people are projecting.
 
ACamp1900

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The crowd will be ampd, this is their Miami game,… have to feel that if we have a slow start it’ll be a battle most of the night. If all other things are equal I like another multi score win. It’ll prob take a stumble out the gate and a couple big byu bounces in the second half for them to pull an upset.
 
NorthDakota

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ACamp1900 said:
The crowd will be ampd, this is their Miami game,… have to feel that if we have a slow start it’ll be a battle most of the night. If all other things are equal I like another multi score win. It’ll prob take a stumble out the gate and a couple big byu bounces in the second half for them to pull an upset.
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Hopefully the boys come out strong. It would put some of my concerns about this team to bed if they controlled the game from kickoff.
 
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NDFAN2008

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tirishman505 said:
I think BYU has the best defensive front we've seen yet and I believe we'll put up 200 yards rushing on them. I'm really encouraged by the improvement the OL and TEs have made. Everyone seems confident in what they are supposed to be doing.
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Was watching some of their highlights against Iowa State, Iowa state was tossing their OL around like a rag doll, and if it wasn't for a bad INT BYU woulda only had 10 points. BYU's DL is also way undersized they got 1 guy whose 300 lbs.
 
402puck

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This just feels so much like Pitt last year.

A team with a little brother complex getting a big home game with national media attention and Gameday, a delusional fanbase who thinks their team is much better than they actually are;

Marcus Freeman: haha ND go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
 
Katzenboyer

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FightingIrishLover7 said:
BYU reminds me of paper tiger Kelly teams with different aisle players.
We're going to do to them, what Bama used to do to us.
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This is the way I'm leaning. I think ND is on a different planet athletically than what BYU has seen/will see the rest of the way.
 
IRISHbluehen

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This will look similar to Wisc. The difference in talent and the advantage on the lines of scrimmage is just too vast. Irish roll again. (I have watched ~0 seconds of BYU this year :ROFLMAO:)
 
Dale

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NDFAN2008 said:
Was watching some of their highlights against Iowa State, Iowa state was tossing their OL around like a rag doll, and if it wasn't for a bad INT BYU woulda only had 10 points. BYU's DL is also way undersized they got 1 guy whose 300 lbs.
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Their top 3 DTs are 300+

Their DEs are not, just like any normal team

They have a DE Schoonover who is 275 and will slide inside in 5 man fronts

The only position BYUs size feels smaller is LB if Glasker is out
 
bobbyok1

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Irish 42
BYU 10

I think we fire on all cylinders and win this one going away. If it were early season, I'd be more concerned. We are hitting our stride midway through the year, and I think our guys will be up to finally play a high-stakes game.
 
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