[NCAAF] vBook: Michigan vs Virginia Tech

maison bleu

maison bleu

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mr7183 said:
Hoke reminds me of CW in his first year. I look forward to watching his team get rolled for the next 4 years.
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I have this fear too... not so much about the totality of the next four years, but this year does remind me in some ways of that first CW season. Minus a lot of blowhard bravado from the coach, of course.

On the other hand, the improvement of the D is real, and with largely the same group of players as last year's suck-fest. And I believe I read some where that Michigan beat 9 teams that played in bowls this year, a record.

Last night was lucky, but we were hardly the first team to win a game in which it largely got outplayed. Think ohio when they "won" the NC against Miami in 2001...
 
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Va. Tech coach Beamer is a complete IDIOT! What MORON would try a fake punt w/ a little over 5 min. to go in the game near mid-field when your defense had the opposition in complete 'shut down mode' the whole 2nd half? Punt the damn frickin' ball w/ intentions of pinning them around 10-15 yd line and set your offense up to get ball back in good field position for the last drive to win it.

Beamer is thinking, "hey, there have only been about 20+ fake punts and field goals in these bowl games, so we'll catch them off guard". That brain dead f*ck*r!
 
Sweetness34

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scUM had the luckiest team in America this year. Robinson throws up hail mary's against ND and they come down with it. They beat OSU because the QB couldn't hit wide open WR's. They beat V Tech because Beamer goes for it on 4th and 1 when they are up 6-0 then goes for a fake punt on 4th down and 1 after calling a timeout when their D is doing great. Fumble recovery after the kickoff. scUM tries a Field goal fake or it goes wrong only to have the snapper catch the ball and get a 1st down. They got every single break this year. Their luck will run out next year! It better!
 
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phork

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I don't think they were going for it on that 4th down. I think they were trying that sideways rugby kick to maximize field position. Unfortunately their line decided to act like a sieve and the kid got smoked.
 
IrishLax

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maison bleu said:
I have this fear too... not so much about the totality of the next four years, but this year does remind me in some ways of that first CW season. Minus a lot of blowhard bravado from the coach, of course.

On the other hand, the improvement of the D is real, and with largely the same group of players as last year's suck-fest. And I believe I read some where that Michigan beat 9 teams that played in bowls this year, a record.

Last night was lucky, but we were hardly the first team to win a game in which it largely got outplayed. Think ohio when they "won" the NC against Miami in 2001...
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First, I think the improvement in the D is real, but it was exaggerated by playing weak competition. ND and VT both have very average offenses and moved the ball pretty darn easily. ND went for over 500 yards VT went for 377.

But I do understand where you're coming from in the fact that to take a team from the bottom of the barrel to a very solid defensive squad in one season is quite impressive... regardless of competition.
 
Rhode Irish

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maison bleu said:
I have this fear too... not so much about the totality of the next four years, but this year does remind me in some ways of that first CW season. Minus a lot of blowhard bravado from the coach, of course.

On the other hand, the improvement of the D is real, and with largely the same group of players as last year's suck-fest. And I believe I read some where that Michigan beat 9 teams that played in bowls this year, a record.

Last night was lucky, but we were hardly the first team to win a game in which it largely got outplayed. Think ohio when they "won" the NC against Miami in 2001...
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Which is amazing, because I look at the schedule and I don't see one legit good team. You guys even figured out how to avoid playing a good opponent in a BCS bowl. None of that is your fault, I just think its a statement about the incredible luck you guys had this year. And as much as I might hate on you for it, you really shouldn't apologize for it. Take what you can get in this game.
 
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Grahambo

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Hardly the first team to be handed a trophy and certainly won't be the last. It was a business decision to hand the game over to UM and understandably so. Hell, the game couldn't even sell out. They couldn't even gain 200 yards of total offense and the MVP of the game had 2 catches for 63 yards.
 
maison bleu

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Rhode Irish said:
Which is amazing, because I look at the schedule and I don't see one legit good team. You guys even figured out how to avoid playing a good opponent in a BCS bowl. None of that is your fault, I just think its a statement about the incredible luck you guys had this year. And as much as I might hate on you for it, you really shouldn't apologize for it. Take what you can get in this game.
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It's also a statement on the fact that there are way too many crappy bowl games...

And also, before you put too much on our "luck" this year, consider this stat. Of 120 FBS teams, Michigan ranked 26 in turnover margin (tied with Stanford and Alabama). ND ranked 118. LINK

Michigan played steady, fundamentally sound football all year, and that has more to do with the final record than luck...
 
IrishMoore1

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Um NO. Michigan had the luckiest season in college football history. No key injuries all year. They had the kind of year where they fumble at the 1 yard line and it bounces right to the QB to walk in for 6. Multiple TD's scored by blindly throwing up the ball.

If this luck continues, perhaps Hoke sold his soul to the devil. Disgusting.
 
Kanye West

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maison bleu said:
It's also a statement on the fact that there are way too many crappy bowl games...

And also, before you put too much on our "luck" this year, consider this stat. Of 120 FBS teams, Michigan ranked 26 in turnover margin (tied with Stanford and Alabama). ND ranked 118. LINK

Michigan played steady, fundamentally sound football all year, and that has more to do with the final record than luck...
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Denard Robinson and fundamentals, this post has to be a joke. He is a faster Tommy Rees.
 
maison bleu

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If y'all wanna believe that finishing 118 in turnover margin is "bad luck" be my guest.

Michigan finished in the top 20 in total D, scoring D and rushing O. That coupled with the aforementioned turnover margin stat spells sound fundamentals to me.

And yes, Denard isn't the greatest passer and he throws too many picks.

But over all, the numbers don't lie.
 
Rhode Irish

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maison bleu said:
If y'all wanna believe that finishing 118 in turnover margin is "bad luck" be my guest.

Michigan finished in the top 20 in total D, scoring D and rushing O. That coupled with the aforementioned turnover margin stat spells sound fundamentals to me.

And yes, Denard isn't the greatest passer and he throws too many picks.

But over all, the numbers don't lie.
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It certainly isn't all luck, but there is some luck involved, both in the time and situations in which the turnovers occur and, in a small sample, the number of turnovers. For instance, the statistical probability that a fumble will be recovered by the offense or the defense over time is about 50/50.

This season you can look at four fumbles that were recovered by the opposing team, any one of which could have led to an additional ND victory had it been recovered by the Irish, with three of them leading to an opponent's TD. I'm thinking of the Jonas Gray fumble at the goal line against USF (USF return TD), the Denard Robinson fumble at the goal line in the UM/ND game (Michigan recovered for a TD), the Tommy Rees fumble in the red zone against UM (recovered by UM) and the Dayne Crist fumble in the red zone against USC (returned by USC for a TD). That is incredibly bad luck.

If those fumbles came out 50/50, as probability would tend to allow, ND's record could have gone from 8-4 to 10-2, and ND's ranking in terms of turnovers wouldn't have changed substantially (I point this out because I agree with you that finishing 118th in turnovers is not the result of bad luck, it is definitely a problem that needs to be addressed). So I do agree with you in part that ND shot itself in the foot far too often to expect to have a successful season and Michigan's success was largely a product of taking care of the football. But I think you can understand how frustrating it is for us to see a game like last night, in light of the bad bounces we experienced this year which are only partly summarized above.
 
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Rhode Irish said:
It certainly isn't all luck, but there is some luck involved, both in the time and situations in which the turnovers occur and, in a small sample, the number of turnovers. For instance, the statistical probability that a fumble will be recovered by the offense or the defense over time is about 50/50.

This season you can look at four fumbles that were recovered by the opposing team, any one of which could have led to an additional ND victory had it been recovered by the Irish, with three of them leading to an opponent's TD. I'm thinking of the Jonas Gray fumble at the goal line against USF (USF return TD), the Denard Robinson fumble at the goal line in the UM/ND game (Michigan recovered for a TD), the Tommy Rees fumble in the red zone against UM (recovered by UM) and the Dayne Crist fumble in the red zone against USC (returned by USC for a TD). That is incredibly bad luck.

If those fumbles came out 50/50, as probability would tend to allow, ND's record could have gone from 8-4 to 10-2, and ND's ranking in terms of turnovers wouldn't have changed substantially (I point this out because I agree with you that finishing 118th in turnovers is not the result of bad luck, it is definitely a problem that needs to be addressed). So I do agree with you in part that ND shot itself in the foot far too often to expect to have a successful season and Michigan's success was largely a product of taking care of the football. But I think you can understand how frustrating it is for us to see a game like last night, in light of the bad bounces we experienced this year which are only partly summarized above.
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You're only 10-2 if your dumb mistakes are erased and others aren't. We had plenty of good breaks on defense as well, not to mention plays that should've been much worse and we got bailed out. Also, fumbles generally aren't 50/50.

Sure, Denard got a lucky bounce. But we also picked him off three times.

If Pendergrass doesn't cough it up and WF doesn't back themselves up and miss the FG in the 4th, we can easily lose against WF.

We had some tough breaks, but caught some as well.

Bottom line:

Hoke went 11-2, beat ND and OSU, and won a BCS game in his first year. Anything other than acknowledging he way outperformed us, as well as shat on our expectations of him is just us being small.
 
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returnofthemack

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I agree with Anchorman. Hoke is a good coach and has turned them into a solid squad. I hate them but it's mostly jealousy at this point.
 
Rhode Irish

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Anchorman said:
You're only 10-2 if your dumb mistakes are erased and others aren't. We had plenty of good breaks on defense as well, not to mention plays that should've been much worse and we got bailed out. Also, fumbles generally aren't 50/50.

Sure, Denard got a lucky bounce. But we also picked him off three times.

If Pendergrass doesn't cough it up and WF doesn't back themselves up and miss the FG in the 4th, we can easily lose against WF.

We had some tough breaks, but caught some as well.

Bottom line:

Hoke went 11-2, beat ND and OSU, and won a BCS game in his first year. Anything other than acknowledging he way outperformed us, as well as shat on our expectations of him is just us being small.
Click to expand...

I agree with some of your post and disagree with some of it (fumbles are statistically 50/50 propositions), but I'll save that for another time. Most of it has been discussed here ad nauseam.

As far as your last paragraph, though, I just want to point out that I am not criticizing Hoke, nor was I one of the people who laughed when UM hired him. I thought/still think he was a good sound hire for them. As far as their accomplishments this season, I am not trying to diminish them when I say this, but: sometimes things that look good on the surface and aren't quite as good when you dig deeper, and vice versa. Taking a closer look at something or analyzing the how instead of just recognizing the what is not intended to be insulting. In this case, I do think it is fair to add some context to Michigan's season.
 
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Dino DeMilio @dinodemilio 26m

Brady Hoke says the win over Notre Dame was the turning point that made Michigan the 11-2 team it is today.
 
Irish Insanity

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If I'm not mistaken, the picking of the Ravens D coord. is probably the reason for the drastic improvement in D, and the team for that matter.
 
ACamp1900

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Grahambo said:
Dino DeMilio @dinodemilio 26m

Brady Hoke says the win over Notre Dame was the turning point that made Michigan the 11-2 team it is today.
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no sh1t... turning point for both teams, regardless of how well ND played in the aftermath... the season and all the promise it held was pertty much over at that point... at least in terms of BCS runs and making a real statement...
 
phork

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ACamp1900 said:
no sh1t... turning point for both teams, regardless of how well ND played in the aftermath... the season and all the promise it held was pertty much over at that point... at least in terms of BCS runs and making a real statement...
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That ended for us with USF.
 
Whiskeyjack

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golden domer 25 said:
Denard Robinson and fundamentals, this post has to be a joke. He is a faster Tommy Rees.
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If Tommy Rees or ANY other ND QB played like Robinson this year ND would have been in the BCS. Floyd and Eifert both would have thrived on Robinson's jump balls.
 
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