Nice, falling for Iranian propaganda
You realize that Radio Gilan is an opposition propaganda channel and isn’t a more reliable source on this than the Iranian state news, right?
Like I think the only honest read on this is we don’t have enough information to know whose missile hit that school. The only thing we can say for sure is a missile killed a lot of innocent girls, and it wouldn’t have if there wasn’t a hot war.
Which gets to my concern about this war. There sure does seem to be a lot of planning for the absolute best case scenarios, but I’m not sure I’ve seen anything to suggest we’ve thought through other scenarios.
I’m sure we can wipe out IRGC missile silos from the air. I’m sure we can kill leadership. But I don’t think we can use air power to meaningfully reduce the IRGC’s stranglehold over the Iranian economy, or to protect protestors from AK wielding basij militia, or to convince millions of religious Iranians that we didn’t just create the most important martyr in Shia Islam since the early Islamic era.
As OMM said-regime change is complicated. We’ve proved time and time again that we can bomb the shit out of a country’s government and kill or degrade its leadership. And time and time again we’ve learned that the result is worse than the (bad) status quo. Iran is bigger (population) wise than Iraq, Libya, and Syria combined. Its government is more deeply entrenched. Unless we’re planning on doing a WW2 scale invasion and occupation, I have no idea how people expect this to go well. When I see people talking about Kurdish militias or local uprisings, I immediately think of what happened to the Kurds and Shias we encouraged to rise up in 1991 in the wake of the Gulf War.
I hope im wrong and diaspora Persians have occasion to keep celebrating a year from now.
