2025 College Football Playoffs

[tirishman505]

I'll tell you one thing, the power players are probably pissed that someone put what is tantamount to collusion in print. They're going to talk themselves into an anti-trust lawsuit that will nuke the whole thing.

 

[NorthDakota]

I agree with you 100%. You have to take the SOS with a grain of salt.

If recall the acc schedules our teams not ND picking who the want to play.

SOS is basically whatever you want it to be. Wins over top 25 at time of game*? Top 25 end of season? Bowl eligible teams? Sagarin ratings? Total opponent W/L? Opponent W/L in wins only?

15 years ago, you could look at conference standings and get a pretty good idea of whether a P4 win was good or not. You can't do that now. The way teams are viewed seems really outdated now.

I think you'd see a much healthier system if pre-season rankings went away. You can start the AP/Coaches Polls and release them at the same time the committee drops theirs.

Networks and boomer dweebs will complain that preseason rankings are needed so certain early season games can be hyped and what not. But people arent stupid. Everyone was gonna watch Ohio State/Texas, LSU/Clemson, Alabama/Florida State, ND/Miami week one regardless of numbers next to the team's names. I think it might be the only way to mitigate early games being over/under emphasized by some dorky rankings based only on projections

 

[tirishman505]

Nobody paid attention to the Notre Dame guarantee at the time because:
1) All the non-SEC/B1G conferences also got guarantees that their champions would get in (Duke would have loved this)
2) As mentioned before, the ND guarantee is a lot weaker than everyone else's guarantee
3) This was traded for significantly less money and control

The take away at the time was everyone ceding power to the B1G and SEC, including ND

 

[RDU Irish]

LITERALLY NONE

Alabama ahead of ND barely in two of 15, Miami behind ND in all. Bama ahead of Miami in 8 out of 15.

Average ranking
ND 7.47
Miami 11.53
Alabama 10.2

Further confirmation of what everyone already knows. ND over both by a large margin.

AP - #10 ND's 1094 points are closer to Oklahoma at 1154 than they are to #11 Miami at 1017 points which is a tighter gap ahead of #12 Bama's 973 points.

Similar story in Coaches Poll - OU 1093, ND 1037, Miami 941, Bama 913

Every non-retarded CFB fan who is being honest had ND ahead of Miami and Bama. ND is the #1 two loss team, IMO and it isn't really close.

 

[jprue24]

Does anyone know of a single ranking system which had both Miami and Bama ahead of ND? Honestly question, I dont know of one other the CFP rankings.

More than a few have ND ranked one spot ahead. Pulled the rankings from here

College Football Ranking 2025-2026

NCAA PerformanZ Ratings

Football ratings, NFL, NCAA Football Basketball Baseball Computer ratings predictions

www.thepredictiontracker.com

Alternative College Football Ranking System - Superior Performance Ranking System

This college football ranking system is an alternative to the CFP one. It measures performance based on score margin and opponent ranking.

superiorperformancerankingsystem.com

GitHub - taylorleprechaun/CFBPollNew: Upgraded CFBPoll

Upgraded CFBPoll. Contribute to taylorleprechaun/CFBPollNew development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

 

[IrishinSyria]

The issue with schedule prediction at this point is nobody knows what the transfer portal is going to do to anyone's rosters. There don't appear to be any true Tier 1 games on the schedule (which I am defining as good chance of being a Top 10 team over the course of the season). But there are a few teams with a reasonable chance to be better than last year.

SMU has been a good (not great) team the past two years and would have been in the ACC CG if they hadn't blown their last game against Cal (an outcome that screwed us just as much as the Duke-UVA outcome). I would put them in whatever category you have Navy in, especially since nobody gives ND any credit for beating Navy.

MSU is losing their best player, but they have a new coach that is generally well respected, so maybe they put together a solid but not spectacular team as opposed to the dumpster fires they've had the past few years. Syracuse was looking like a good (not great) team until Angeli went down, if he comes back healthy, that's not a bad road game.

Don't get me wrong, it's not a great schedule and like I said, there are no true Tier 1 games on it. The ACC being dogshit is a substantial anchor around the SOS. It would be cool if they spent half as much time and energy on improving their product as they did shitting on us for the past 3+ weeks. But I'm not holding my breath.

Miami and USC could very well easily be tier 1 games.

 

[sfk324]

Miami and USC could very well easily be tier 1 games.

Could be? Yes. Are they now? No. Which is my point. Parsing the schedule now is premature. At least wait until the portal movements shake out before pulling out the crystal ball.

 

[Canes4theWin]

Every non-retarded CFB fan who is being honest had ND ahead of Miami and Bama. ND is the #1 two loss team, IMO and it isn't really close.

I can understand how reasonable people would disagree about whether Miami or ND should be more deserving (ND stronger computer #s and poll ratings/Miami due to H2H and close enough in rankings).

Saying that unless you have ND above Miami you’re retarded is not a very reasonable argument. H2H has been used consistently to determine a tie breaker in situations with similar resumes

With that said, I agree that Bama at 10-3 is definitely not as deserving as Miami or ND, and I think the sec benefited greatly from BS sec bias. Ole miss, oklahaoma, and bama are not as good as they’re getting credit for

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I can understand how reasonable people would disagree about whether Miami or ND should be more deserving (ND stronger computer #s and poll ratings/Miami due to H2H and close enough in rankings).

Saying that unless you have ND above Miami you’re retarded is not a very reasonable argument. H2H has been used consistently to determine a tie breaker in situations with similar resumes

With that said, I agree that Bama at 10-3 is definitely not as deserving as Miami or ND, and I think the sec benefited greatly from BS sec bias. Ole miss, oklahaoma, and bama are not as good as they’re getting credit for

The point of these advanced analytics is to look at all variables that a human brain can't comprehend simultaneously. There are 136 FBS schools. You can't play everybody. H2H is one game out of thousands that make up the data within the advanced stats. Miamis H2H win is already taken into account and they are universally behind ND in every (nearly? maybe one) metric. I don't understand why this is difficult for people (not necessarily you) to understand. They already gave Miami all the credit for beating ND (its baked into the metrics already), its just not enough credit to make up for the rest of the data available!!!

 

[BrianWalsh]

I can understand how reasonable people would disagree about whether Miami or ND should be more deserving (ND stronger computer #s and poll ratings/Miami due to H2H and close enough in rankings).

Saying that unless you have ND above Miami you’re retarded is not a very reasonable argument. H2H has been used consistently to determine a tie breaker in situations with similar resumes

With that said, I agree that Bama at 10-3 is definitely not as deserving as Miami or ND, and I think the sec benefited greatly from BS sec bias. Ole miss, oklahaoma, and bama are not as good as they’re getting credit for

Similar resumes? Miami lost to two unranked teams, one at home. Notre Dame lost to a playoff team and a questionable playoff team.

 

[bumpdaddy]

I feel like the outrage over the automatic bid for top 12 should be something we use. We should really be hammering the backroom dealing aspects of the committee and advocating for a more transparent system. We could easily say that we would give up our guarantee if we had more surety over the process during the season, hopefully meaning something like the old BCS where you know where you stand with most people and can more easily track week to week changes and their justifications.

I think that would be a worthy tradeoff because as it stands, the guarantee doesn't mean much because the backroom dealing aspects of the committee means they could very easily just put us at 13 if they don't want us in. And while it would be good to have the guarantee and a better system, we are taking such a PR hit right now that I think there are probably too many negatives with the guarantee deal that we might end up getting rid of it for nothing, so we might as well try to get something for it instead.

OK, not bad, but I think we could keep it simpler than that. Any time someone declares that the MOU gives ND special treatment, Bevaqua or MF should just say...

"This isn't special treatment. Our position is that ALL teams in the top 12 should be guaranteed a spot. If conferences want special carve-outs for their champions even if they aren't in the top 12, we just want to make sure we don't unfairly get squeezed out of a spot."

 

[ab2cmiller]

OK, not bad, but I think we could keep it simpler than that. Any time someone declares that the MOU gives ND special treatment, Bevaqua or MF should just say...

"This isn't special treatment. Our position is that ALL teams in the top 12 should be guaranteed a spot. If conferences want special carve-outs for their champions even if they aren't in the top 12, we just want to make sure we don't unfairly get squeezed out of a spot."

Agreed.

or

"We agree that no individual team or conference should get special treatment. We're willing to rip up the MOU if it is replaced by a new agreement that calls for the top 12 teams get in the CFP. No automatic qualifiers. Do we have a deal?"

 

[russianirish]

Similar resumes? Miami lost to two unranked teams, one at home. Notre Dame lost to a playoff team and a questionable playoff team.

Just reply to the thread. For this kind of development, in russian language, we have a single word spelled "bespredel" meaning "Coordinated lawlessness". Have no more to say.

 

[Irish#1]

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Let’s pretend this is true. Even if it is, it will be memory-holed because it goes against the current narrative.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[IRISHDODGER]

There is no evidence at all, but a lot of SEC teams are trying to re-jigger their OOC scheduling with the conference moving to 9 games (finally) so that is something to watch.

The other schools ND is scheduling with are regional Big Ten schools and the required ACC so the idea that you could "freeze" ND is retarded. The ACC is definitely trying to play hard ball now that it is clear that ND wants out of the conference and if they don't have leverage the whole thing might go up in flames.

Brian Smith of “Locked On” said that the public will be surprised to see how many SEC teams will be on ND’s schedule in the next few years. He said it could be as many as 3 in one season. He’s sounds pretty dialed in as a recruiting analyst who lives in Auburn & is well versed on ND’s history going back to the Lou Holtz/Vinny Cerrato days. He added if ND can keep Traore and sign a DT, he’d expect them to win it all.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Let’s pretend this is true. Even if it is, it will be memory-holed because it goes against the current narrative.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I do not need to pretend. I did the footwork and voice analysis of the man. He is tied in to the pop tart bowl.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Brian Smith of “Locked On” said that the public will be surprised to see how many SEC teams will be on ND’s schedule in the next few years. He said it could be as many as 3 in one season. He’s sounds pretty dialed in as a recruiting analyst who lives in Auburn & is well versed on ND’s history going back to the Lou Holtz/Vinny Cerrato days. He added if ND can keep Traore and sign a DT, he’d expect them to win it all.

Oh god, don't tell 08. Lol

 

[Bluto]

The point of these advanced analytics is to look at all variables that a human brain can't comprehend simultaneously. There are 136 FBS schools. You can't play everybody. H2H is one game out of thousands that make up the data within the advanced stats. Miamis H2H win is already taken into account and they are universally behind ND in every (nearly? maybe one) metric. I don't understand why this is difficult for people (not necessarily you) to understand. They already gave Miami all the credit for beating ND (it’s baked into the metrics already), it’s just not enough credit to make up for the rest of the data available!!!

This take is stupid and is a reflection of the current tech/econ bro world view.

If the actual game that was played can be overlooked/discounted why even play any games?

Why not just feed team talent rankings or whatever other metrics some dickhead decides to cook up, feed them into some fucked off game simulator and declare who’s champion?

What makes college football (and football in general) great is that any team can win on any given day due to so many variables that it would be impossible to capture the why.

Anyhow, people trying to turn CFB into baseball with all this “stats” bullshit fuckin suck. lol.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

This take is stupid and is a reflection of the current tech/econ bro world view.

If the actual game that was played can be overlooked/discounted why even play any games?

Why not just feed team talent rankings or whatever other metrics some dickhead decides to cook up, feed them into some fucked off game simulator and declare who’s champion?

What makes college football (and football in general) great is that any team can win on any given day due to so many variables that it would be impossible to capture the why.

Anyhow, people trying to turn CFB into baseball with all this “stats” bullshit fuckin suck. lol.

Ok, so let's just stick with basic 4th grade math transitive property and declare Florida the national champion. You totally missed the point.

 

[Bane]

This take is stupid and is a reflection of the current tech/econ bro world view.

If the actual game that was played can be overlooked/discounted why even play any games?

Why not just feed team talent rankings or whatever other metrics some dickhead decides to cook up, feed them into some fucked off game simulator and declare who’s champion?

What makes college football (and football in general) great is that any team can win on any given day due to so many variables that it would be impossible to capture the why.

Anyhow, people trying to turn CFB into baseball with all this “stats” bullshit fuckin suck. lol.

But you said it yourself (more or less), the best team doesn't always win, advanced metrics help to quantify "the eye test," talent composition, performance vs. the strength of your opponent, etc.

NIU beat us last year, were they better than us?

Head to head is a factor, but it's never, ever (and I mean, EVER), been the end all, be all in CFB. We have to decide if the CFP is tasked with getting the best teams in, the most "deserving" teams, or if it's just an invitational to enrich one network and the conferences that it owns (hint: it's the last one).

As to the "why even play the games" talking point that was hammered on a loop by Miami media people and ESPN, if an entire season can be boiled down to a single game, why even play the rest of them? The season is 12 games long. Performance can vary for a number of factors from game to game (such as the reasons we struggled the first two games), but advanced analytics can help to gauge the consistency of performance throughout a season. There's a reason every computer model, every single one, had us ranked higher than Miami, generally by several positions.

 

[Bluto]

But you said it yourself (more or less), the best team doesn't always win, advanced metrics help to quantify "the eye test," talent composition, performance vs. the strength of your opponent, etc.

NIU beat us last year, were they better than us?

Head to head is a factor, but it's never, ever (and I mean, EVER), been the end all, be all in CFB. We have to decide if the CFP is tasked with getting the best teams in, the most "deserving" teams, or if it's just an invitational to enrich one network and the conferences that it owns (hint: it's the last one).

As to the "why even play the games" talking point that was hammered on a loop by Miami media people and ESPN, if an entire season can be boiled down to a single game, why even play the rest of them? The season is 12 games long. Performance can vary for a number of factors from game to game (such as the reasons we struggled the first two games), but advanced analytics can help to gauge the consistency of performance throughout a season. There's a reason every computer model, every single one, had us ranked higher than Miami, generally by several positions.

On that day NIU was better.

If NIU then proceeded to go 12-0 or 11-1 they should have made the playoffs.

They didn’t.

All this metrics bullshit obfuscating is what opened the door for Alabama to be in.

Using my pea brained games mater methodology Bama is out because they lost
three times and got their ass kicked twice.

ND lost twice in close games to good teams so they’re in.

Shit ain’t rocket science.

 

[tirishman505]

On that day NIU was better.

If NIU then proceeded to go 12-0 or 11-1 they should have made the playoffs.

They didn’t.

All this metrics bullshit obfuscating is what opened the door for Alabama to be in.

Using my pea brained games mater methodology Bama is out because they lost
three times and got their ass kicked twice.

ND lost twice in close games to good teams so they’re in.

Shit ain’t rocket science.

While I tend to agree with your overall point, let's not pretend to that Bama got in because of metrics. We're all adults here.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

This take is stupid and is a reflection of the current tech/econ bro world view.

If the actual game that was played can be overlooked/discounted why even play any games?

Why not just feed team talent rankings or whatever other metrics some dickhead decides to cook up, feed them into some fucked off game simulator and declare who’s champion?

What makes college football (and football in general) great is that any team can win on any given day due to so many variables that it would be impossible to capture the why.

Anyhow, people trying to turn CFB into baseball with all this “stats” bullshit fuckin suck. lol.

On that day NIU was better.

If NIU then proceeded to go 12-0 or 11-1 they should have made the playoffs.

They didn’t.

All this metrics bullshit obfuscating is what opened the door for Alabama to be in.

Using my pea brained games mater methodology Bama is out because they lost
three times and got their ass kicked twice.

ND lost twice in close games to good teams so they’re in.

Shit ain’t rocket science.

Please formally submit your complaint to 1993 Florida State. And when you do, make sure you use pen and not crayon.

 

[SouthernLeprachaun]

There are TVs in North Dining Hall that always are on ESPN 24/7... a bunch of us students complained yesterday about it, and those TVs are now on CBS sports network until the playoffs are over

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

There are TVs in North Dining Hall that always are on ESPN 24/7... a bunch of us students complained yesterday about it, and those TVs are now on CBS sports network until the playoffs are over

 

[Bluto]

Please formally submit your complaint to 1993 Florida State. And when you do, make sure you use pen and not crayon.

Ok sure.

My only complaint is that Bama made the playoffs in lieu of ND and all this ND “was better in the models than Miami” cry baby nonsense only served as a convenient distraction from the core argument that Bama should have been the first team out because they’re objectively not that good as demonstrated by the fact that they lost three games, two of which were blowouts.

Again, this shit ain’t that complicated.

 

[Wild Bill]

Ok sure.

My only complaint is that Bama made the playoffs in lieu of ND and all this ND “was better in the models than Miami” cry baby nonsense only served as a convenient distraction from the core argument that Bama should have been the first team out because they’re objectively not that good as demonstrated by the fact that they lost three games, two of which were blowouts.

Again, this shit ain’t that complicated.

So you wanna PUNISH them for losing a CCG you bastard???

 

[Bane]

On that day NIU was better.

If NIU then proceeded to go 12-0 or 11-1 they should have made the playoffs.

They didn’t.

All this metrics bullshit obfuscating is what opened the door for Alabama to be in.

Using my pea brained games mater methodology Bama is out because they lost
three times and got their ass kicked twice.

ND lost twice in close games to good teams so they’re in.

Shit ain’t rocket science.

Alabama did not get in because of metrics and at no point in time was that ever really presented as part of their case. In fact, their salesmen on ESPN during the reveal show said that Alabama was explicitly not an "eye test" darling (metrics=eye test more or less) but was stating their case via their resume.

If you're not a believer in metrics then you really don't have much of a cause to be upset with ND's exclusion as our resume lagged behind Alabama's in many ways and Miami had the head to head.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

Bama is the only school that didn’t drop in the final CFP rankings after the CCG’s, correct? BYU, UVA, OSU all dropped after they lost.