2025 College Football Playoffs

[Huntr]

Right, I'm saying it SHOULDN'T count in Strength of Schedule. Beating 6-win Bethune-Cookman is not the same thing as beat 6-win Penn State, yet when SOS is reduced to opponents' winning percentage, they're identical.

It's not that simple. Playing an FCS team lowers your SoS.

It's not solely based on opponents win percentage.


Donchess said this about calculating it. (DRatings are an excellent predictor , btw)

This is an interesting discussion, too.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

When did ND leave the comp grouping of Bama/OU and enter the comp grouping of Miami/BYU?

Referring to Yuracheck's comments in Dale's post above.

 

[EvilleIrish]

When did ND leave the comp grouping of Bama/OU and enter the comp grouping of Miami/BYU?

Pretty sure the committee said last night the hardest decision was Bama vs ND.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Pretty sure the committee said last night the hardest decision was Bama vs ND.

Sorry, I forgot to quote Dale's post. Maybe I'm missing context, but the words from Yuracheck in the above exchange almost make it sound like BYU/Miami/ND are grouped together as he talked about their respective rankings. Maybe, I misunderstood.

 

[Katzenboyer]

You cannot top RGIII's tweet about this shit.

Lock this thread now.

View attachment 3061441

He's one of the dumbest, most phony people in sports broadcasting today.

Sucks to see, as I loved watching him as a player.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Sorry, I forgot to quote Dale's post. Maybe I'm missing context, but the words from Yuracheck in the above exchange almost make it sound like BYU/Miami/ND are grouped together as he talked about their respective rankings. Maybe, I misunderstood.

It's impossible to know because seems like the goalposts get moved weekly.

 

[stlnd01]

Pretty sure the committee said last night the hardest decision was Bama vs ND.

Yeah. Deciding how they were going to publicly justify the outcome they had decided they needed (protecting Bama from a potential SECCG loss) must have been very difficult for them.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Odds cooled off and stabilized after me and many others made tickets for worst case scenario.

I’d say Vegas is all in on ND making it.


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[2013Irish]

Yeah, but it's about protecting the SEC. Clay Travis said the SEC "wouldn't allow" Bama to be left out because they lost the CCG. I didn't realize the SEC made these decisions? Well, based on the new rankings, they appear to do.

Clay Travis went to GWU. He's not an SEC guy or a serious person.

 

[stlnd01]

Clay Travis went to GWU. He's not an SEC guy or a serious person.

Travis may not have attended an SEC university but he got his start as a college football media presence in Tennessee and certainly seems an SEC homer (wasn't he also a key player in the Tennessee revolt against Greg Schiano?). Agree he's not a serious person regardless of where he went to college.
Personally I think it has more to do with not wanting to screw Bama, in particular, and less about the SEC. There seems no particular thumb on the scale for Vandy or Texas. But for us the end result is the same.

 

[317Irish]

Odds cooled off and stabilized after me and many others made tickets for worst case scenario.

I’d say Vegas is all in on ND making it.


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I hope you’re right. It seems like the wild swings started this past Sunday through Tuesday and were foreshadowing the committees moves. I’m guessing if we look at the movement this Saturday night and Sunday morning of ND’s odds to make the playoffs we will have a good idea of how this plays out. That’s if we don’t see a BYU win which might bury us anyways.

 

[NDMatt91]

Travis may not have attended an SEC university but he got his start as a college football media presence in Tennessee and certainly seems an SEC homer (wasn't he also a key player in the Tennessee revolt against Greg Schiano?). Agree he's not a serious person regardless of where he went to college.
Personally I think it has more to do with not wanting to screw Bama, in particular, and less about the SEC. There seems no particular thumb on the scale for Vandy or Texas. But for us the end result is the same.

He's a Tennessee fan and a big SEC honk. And yes, he was one of the Vol fans who started the revolt against Schiano.

 

[tko]

It’s going to be a long week. What a total shit show.

 

[ozzman]

 

[Blazers46]

ND needs to divorce the ACC. Not sure if anyone noticed but the ACC Network has aired the ND-Miami game a billion times, sometimes back to back since Sunday leading to yesterday. They hate Notre Dame.

 

[Irish#1]

SIAP

Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman responds to team's dropping in College Football Playoff rankings

Freeman told NBC News on Wednesday he will “agree to disagree” after the Fighting Irish were dropped to 10th in the latest CFP rankings.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

ND needs to divorce the ACC. Not sure if anyone noticed but the ACC Network has aired the ND-Miami game a billion times, sometimes back to back since Sunday leading to yesterday. They hate Notre Dame.

Burn it down, that deal needs to die.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Burn it down, that deal needs to die.

Agreed. The conference is an albatross. The majority of other sports can join the Big East. The hockey team already plays in the Big 10. The fencing teams can go independent. The Big East is a better fit for our men's basketball program with more compelling rivalries. The ACC is also starting to suck in women's basketball.

 

[Irish#1]

Clay Travis went to GWU. He's not an SEC guy or a serious person.

He's an SEC fan for sure.

 

[Bane]

You cannot top RGIII's tweet about this shit.

Lock this thread now.

View attachment 3061441

OMG. I'm sure he's just dumb and doesn't know what he's talking about the theological implications of calling Mormons Christians while denying Catholics are is lowkey so funny I hope he meant it. I would love to see him have to break down that logic.

 

[Bane]

I think he means less about metrics and more about actual FBS wins. Haters love to point out the “unfairness” of ND not playing a CCG but most, if not all; those teams play at least one FCS opponent so if they play in their CCG they still play 12 FBS opponents. They should get zero credit for having an extra bye disguised as a football game.

Yeah and I'm tired of hearing "when two teams have the exact same record head to head should be honored," because in college football that is stupid. Lets say NIU had finished the season last year 11-1, zero chance they would have been ranked ahead of us despite having "the exact same record." This is an NFL talking point that is applied to CFB and I agree that we shouldn't count FCS wins in the official win column. Miami only beat 9 FBS level teams, we beat 10, those are not the same records.

Clay Travis went to GWU. He's not an SEC guy or a serious person.

Uh, Travis is a massive SEC homer. He's a Vols fan but has been pushing for Vandy to make the playoffs and Pavia to win the Heisman for the past month because in SEC land the conference matters more than the team you cheer for. His "Hesiman leaderboard" has had Pavia and Marcel Reed for a longtime.

I agree, he's not a serious person, but he is absolutely a SEC homer.

 

[2013Irish]

Yeah and I'm tired of hearing "when two teams have the exact same record head to head should be honored," because in college football that is stupid. Lets say NIU had finished the season last year 11-1, zero chance they would have been ranked ahead of us despite having "the exact same record." This is an NFL talking point that is applied to CFB and I agree that we shouldn't count FCS wins in the official win column. Miami only beat 9 FBS level teams, we beat 10, those are not the same records.


Uh, Travis is a massive SEC homer. He's a Vols fan but has been pushing for Vandy to make the playoffs and Pavia to win the Heisman for the past month because in SEC land the conference matters more than the team you cheer for. His "Hesiman leaderboard" has had Pavia and Marcel Reed for a longtime.

I agree, he's not a serious person, but he is absolutely a SEC homer.

Agree he's an SEC fan. I just wanted to take a shot at him.

 

[Dale]

Guys Clay Travis doesn’t give a fuck about ND versus Miami. It’s just a take to get clicks

 

[wizards8507]

Agreed. The conference is an albatross. The majority of other sports can join the Big East. The hockey team already plays in the Big 10. The fencing teams can go independent. The Big East is a better fit for our men's basketball program with more compelling rivalries. The ACC is also starting to suck in women's basketball.

 

[wizards8507]

OMG. I'm sure he's just dumb and doesn't know what he's talking about the theological implications of calling Mormons Christians while denying Catholics are is lowkey so funny I hope he meant it. I would love to see him have to break down that logic.

He's obviously saying "BYU is getting screwed in general," not by Notre Dame in particular. His comparison was BYU versus [the entire subset of teams ranked from 8 through 12].

 

[jprue24]

@burmafrd1944 you alright? You make it through the night?

 

[OrlaNDomer]

They're under no obligation to drop them with a loss. This is more about protecting them from getting leapfrogged by BYU.

This would be a good thing for ND. If they don't drop Bama 1 spot after a loss they can't drop BYU 1 spot after a loss (presumably... I guess they can, but that would be tough to explain away unless the losses were super lopsided). If BYU doesn't drop a spot, ND won't be next to Miami.

 

[jprue24]

This idea that the committee has to do anything is kinda moot at this point. It's positioned to have "reason" to go in multiple directions this weekend. They have used different data points for different decisions and kept enough hidden that it's impossible to know what kind of weight each data point is getting when comparing two teams.

I haven't seen anything this year which has caused me to change my mind about what ND controls. If ND loses more than one game, the playoffs are completely out of their control.

 

[ColinKSU]

Guys Clay Travis doesn’t give a fuck about ND versus Miami. It’s just a take to get clicks

It’s also important to note that Clay Travis is a cynical asshole who doesn’t actually believe in anything and will beat whatever drum he needs to beat about anything if it’ll make him money and raise his profile.

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Odds cooled off and stabilized after me and many others made tickets for worst case scenario.

I’d say Vegas is all in on ND making it.


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Yeah, this is what gives me a good amount of hope on the BYU lose and ND in scenario.

Vegas wouldn't be making the ND NO line so juiced if they felt the debate between Miami and ND was very close in the committees eyes.
It would be closer to like +200 for instance, and not almost exactly correlated with the BYU ML number vs Texas Tech.

I have to imagine the betting splits on that Yes / No is like 95% ND NO at the +380 - +400 number
The average person betting ain't laying -500 odds on just about anything.

Vegas is going to likely make a killing if BYU games goes the way it should, and ND makes the playoff and Miami misses.
If BYU loses, and Miami Yes ticket gets home in spit of ND then some odds makers are going to be having some uncomfortable conversations with thier bosses about how they got that projection so wrong.