2025 College Football Playoffs

[DillonHall]

I said that at the party last night too. This could be their way of almost forcing NDs hand. I think Auburn has the same chance to beat Bama as BYU does beating TT. So I doubt that scenario plays out.

Yeah Texas Tech should be motivated because they'll have a bye to play for

 

[T Town Tommy]

Game day crew was saying they get 2 spots if this happens.

This is why the scheduling of both Miami and Texas A&M that early doesn’t make sense.

I don’t want to see it happen but IMO this could be the way college football forces ND to join a conference.

The issue is that this committee hasn’t really ranked teams based on what prior committees have done. The quality of OOC opponents mattered in years past but this year it seems to me that they aren’t valuing as much, or at least as much. If Michigan somehow wins out that gives them four teams in the playoffs and at least three of them have SOS’s in the 50-60 range. If that’s the criteria moving forward then I see less OOC marquee matchups happening.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

A 10-2 Notre Dame isn’t getting left out of the playoffs. People can debate records, opponents, eye test, whatever. The committee has been very clear that they believe the Irish belong.

I’m seeing a lot of this, and it’s how I felt, but I’m not so sure anymore.

So we are #9 in the rankings, but effectively 11th in because top 5 conference champions qualify and there will most likely be two conference champs worse than us.

Let’s say Bama and BYU also win their conference championships. They also leapfrog us.

Honest question: in this scenario, how do you think we get in? It would have to be with us jumping ahead of #9 this Tuesday, in preparation of this (the committee has explicitly said any teams not in conference championship will remain ranked in relation to one another). But with how we’ve been stuck at #9 the past few weeks, I don’t think we move up without another team being upset.

 

[Kingbish01]

I’m seeing a lot of this, and it’s how I felt, but I’m not so sure anymore.

So we are #9 in the rankings, but effectively 11th in because top 5 conference champions qualify and there will most likely be two conference champs worse than us.

Let’s say Bama and BYU also win their conference championships. They also leapfrog us.

Honest question: in this scenario, how do you think we get in? It would have to be with us jumping ahead of #9 this Tuesday, in preparation of this (the committee has explicitly said any teams not in conference championship will remain ranked in relation to one another). But with how we’ve been stuck at #9 the past few weeks, I don’t think we move up without another team being upset.

I don't see how they go from 9 to 13 with Bama, BYU and even Mich winning because both those team are already in the top 12 and their is room for one more...Miami or Michigan...am I looking at this right?

 

[T Town Tommy]

I’m seeing a lot of this, and it’s how I felt, but I’m not so sure anymore.

So we are #9 in the rankings, but effectively 11th in because top 5 conference champions qualify and there will most likely be two conference champs worse than us.

Let’s say Bama and BYU also win their conference championships. They also leapfrog us.

Honest question: in this scenario, how do you think we get in? It would have to be with us jumping ahead of #9 this Tuesday, in preparation of this (the committee has explicitly said any teams not in conference championship will remain ranked in relation to one another). But with how we’ve been stuck at #9 the past few weeks, I don’t think we move up without another team being upset.

How does the committee value losses in conference championship games? Earlier it was teams shouldn’t be penalized for losing the game then said recently that it would be evaluated as another data point. So who knows what they think. But to your question, I think the fact that the committee has ranked the Irish where they have means that a lot of chaos would have to happen for them to leave the Irish out - like Michigan winning today and Oregon losing and then Michigan beating Indiana in their conference championship game. Just seems like too many what ifs right now to overcome for the Irish not making it in.

 

[NDty9]

A lot of people in here that are clearly just being overly negative, to somehow try and prepare themselves should something go DRASTICALLY wrong… knock it off. It’s a lame tactic.

Focus on one thing. ND crushing tonight. That’s all. Stop being pussies

 

[DillonHall]

I don't see how they go from 9 to 13 with Bama, BYU and even Mich winning because both those team are already in the top 12 and their is room for one more...Miami or Michigan...am I looking at this right?

ND is virtually 11th right now, not 9th, because a G5 and ACC team will eventually jump them. There's not much room for error

 

[notredomer23]

ND is virtually 11th right now, not 9th, because a G5 and ACC teams will eventually jump them

I’m not following. G5 and ACC will be 11 and 12. Not ahead of ND.

 

[NDty9]

ND is virtually 11th right now, not 9th, because a G5 and ACC team will eventually jump them. There's not much room for error

That’s not how it works

 

[DillonHall]

That’s not how it works

Dude yeah it is. You're so ignorant. There's no G5 or ACC team ahead of ND right now but they're guaranteed to get in

 

[DillonHall]

I'm talking about spots in the 12-team playoff, not seeding

 

[irishff1014]

The issue is that this committee hasn’t really ranked teams based on what prior committees have done. The quality of OOC opponents mattered in years past but this year it seems to me that they aren’t valuing as much, or at least as much. If Michigan somehow wins out that gives them four teams in the playoffs and at least three of them have SOS’s in the 50-60 range. If that’s the criteria moving forward then I see less OOC marquee matchups happening.

I am not trying to go to pick on you but the SEC, the big ten, the acc are scheduling these awful teams. East Illinois, UL Monroe for bama.

Tennessee playing ETSU. This should be frowned upon.

We played Tennessee State 2 years ago for the HBCU. And imo that shouldn’t happen.

Kentucky is in the Sec and you can’t blame bama for playing a crappy in conference team.

 

[DillonHall]

Teams guaranteed to get in:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. A&M
4. Georgia
5. B12 champ
6. Ole Miss
7. ACC champ (a team that's not currently ahead of ND)
8. Highest ranked G5 conference champ (a team that's not currently ahead of ND)

Teams likely to get in:
9. Oklahoma (have to beat LSU at home)
10. Oregon (have to beat Washington on the road)

That leaves two spots for ND, Bama, Miami. If Michigan wins today, they're also definitely in the mix for one of those last two spots. If Bama beats Auburn and wins the SEC, they'd obviously be ahead of ND and Georgia would still be in the Playoff. If BYU gets the automatic spot, Texas Tech is definitely still in the mix since I'm not sure the committee would punish a team that much for losing a conference championship game. Utah and Vandy have probably hit their ceilings

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

I’m not following. G5 and ACC will be 11 and 12. Not ahead of ND.

That’s the issue. They will be the 11th and 12th teams in the playoffs, despite not being in the top-12 rankings.

So it’s really like we need to be in the top 10 of the actual rankings. We are #9.

If BYU and Bama win their conference championships, they take two more spots and we slide out of the playoffs, despite maybe being in the top 10.

Teams ahead of us winning this week + Bama over Georgia + BYU over TT is unlikely, but altogether possible.

Not wetting the bed but also recognizing it’s definitely not true that ND is in no matter what. I think a lot of people saying this don’t understand the framework, see us at #9, and think there’s no way we drop 4 spots.

 

[IrishinSyria]

After the Irish are national champions we are all going to have a laugh reading through the weekly (daily?) freakouts.

I have a lot of confidence regarding the things this team and coaching staff control and much less confidence regarding the things they don’t.

doesn’t feel like that position will age poorly regardless of what happens.

 

[Green Mountains]

The top 5 ranked conference champions if BYU and Alabama win:

For argument sake (after next weeks conference games):

• Alabama
• OSU
• BYU
• Virginia/SMU
• Tulane

None of BYU; UVA / SMU; or Tulane is will be ranked above the Irish, but yet they will get 3 of the spots.​

​

That leaves in rank order 7 positions:

• Indiana
• Texas A&M
• Ole Miss
• Oklahoma
• Georgia (losing to Alabama)
• Oregon
• Texas Tech (does the committee penalize a conference championship loss?)

1st out Notre Dame
2nd out Miami
3rd out Texas

If it's Texas Tech over BYU, ND is the last team in (not the worst ranked, probably 10th) with the ND / Miami argument.

If it's a Georgia win, I'm sure Alabama drops out as the 1st or 2nd team out. And we are potentially left with the ND / Miami argument with one team in.

We want / need Georgia to beat Alabama and we want / need Texas Tech to beat BYU. And go PITT. Given the current rankings, Texas Tech winning is most important.

For today, let's hope LSU beats OU. Given that Alabama dropped below us, another loss for Oklahoma should drop them behind ND. Also, let's cheer for Washington (6.5 point dogs) at home vs. Oregon. That should drop Oregon below ND.

 

[DillonHall]

That’s the issue. They will be the 11th and 12th teams in the playoffs, despite not being in the top-12 rankings.

So it’s really like we need to be in the top 10 of the actual rankings. We are #9.

If BYU and Bama win their conference championships, they take two more spots and we slide out of the playoffs, despite maybe being in the top 10.

Teams ahead of us winning this week + Bama over Georgia + BYU over TT is unlikely, but altogether possible.

Not wetting the bed but also recognizing it’s definitely not true that ND is in no matter what. I think a lot of people saying this don’t understand the framework, see us at #9, and think there’s way we drop 4 spots.

Bro, this might be too complicated for some people

 

[stlnd01]

Yes there is a five-way parlay that blocks us out. Yes there's a scenario where we're vying for an at-large bids against equally big-time programs that are currently not in the picture but will/could be (the way tv announcers last night went straight to Texas' playoff case was annoying).
But all we really need is one or two things to break our way - Washington beating Oregon would be grand, for instance - and we're fine.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Wouldn’t count out Texas either

 

[Bane]

Wouldn’t count out Texas either

We know you aren't.

 

[IrishinSyria]

The top 5 ranked conference champions if BYU and Alabama win:

For argument sake (after next weeks conference games):

• Alabama
• OSU
• BYU
• Virginia/SMU
• Tulane

That leaves in rank order 7 positions:

• Indiana
• Texas A&M
• Ole Miss
• Oklahoma
• Georgia (losing to Alabama)
• Oregon
• Texas Tech (does the committee penalize a conference championship loss?)

1st out Notre Dame
2nd out Miami
3rd out Texas

If it's Texas Tech over BYU, ND is the last team in (not the worst ranked, probably 10th) with the ND / Miami argument.

If it's a Georgia win, I'm sure Alabama drops out as the 1st or 2nd team out. And we are potentially left with the ND / Miami argument with one team in.

We want / need Georgia to beat Alabama and we want / need Texas Tech to beat BYU. And go PITT. Given the current rankings, Texas Tech winning is most important.

And this doesn’t even account for nightmare scenarios like Michigan beating Ohio State.

 

[NDFAN2008]

The G5 team has no business being in it should be the 13 highest ranked teams end of story

 

[Green Mountains]

The G5 team has no business being in it should be the 13 highest ranked teams end of story

That's a great point of view....but not the rules we are operating under. As much as I might agree, that's the the circumstance for 2025.

 

[IrishinSyria]

That's a great point of view....but not the rules we are operating under. As much as I might agree, that's the the circumstance for 2025.

Also IMO it’s fine. Expanding the field gave a bunch of teams a shot that would never have sniffed a shot at the natty under any previous system. Hard to complain about this system when under any previous system our national championship aspirations would haven’t ended in week 2.

 

[burmafrd1944]

Its clear that the committee highly values teams that are consistent

Outside of the two unbeaten teams, who has been more consistent this season then ND?

up and down teams like Texas and Alabama and so on clearly have less value

teams that win by the skin of their teeth again and again also are not highly valued

 

[notredamermotherpray4us]

ND is virtually 11th right now, not 9th, because a G5 and ACC team will eventually jump them. There's not much room for error

Why do you think we get jumped by the ACC champ and G5? They are basically already locked in at 11 and 12 and the only reason they get in is because they are guaranteed a spot. Not sure why you think they'll be moved up? If we fall to 11 we would be out. Though I think it's a coin flip that TTU stays ahead of us if they lose to BYU.

 

[Dale]

They aren’t gonna put a 3 loss team (Texas) above 1 loss team (BYU).

At most Texas could jump Miami lol. I think realistically jumping Utah is their ceiling.

 

[DillonHall]

Why do you think we get jumped by the ACC champ and G5? They are basically already locked in at 11 and 12 and the only reason they get in is because they are guaranteed a spot. Not sure why you think they'll be moved up? If we fall to 11 we would be out. Though I think it's a coin flip that TTU stays ahead of us if they lose to BYU.

I'm talking about priority in terms of getting into the playoffs - they're currently behind ND but they will both get in automatically like you said. I'm not talking about seeding.

We're saying the same thing. I'm saying we're basically #11 in the pecking order to get in right now, so if we fall two spots (from 9 to 11), we're out because of the automatic bids for ACC and G5

 

[DillonHall]

Thanks for the neg reps, it really shows how little you understand the playoff format

 

[Kingbish01]

Thanks for the neg reps, it really shows how little you understand the playoff format

How do you check Neg Reps? I hope I have some!