2025 College Football Playoffs

[rtrn2glory]

I would think that an argument could be made that if somehow Miami and A&M both win their conference title games and we win out that we are a legitimate top 5 team

 

[NDPhilly]

ND is -330 to make the playoffs on DraftKings, that’s 77% implied probability. Thats the 5th highest of any team, behind only OSU, IU, A&M, and Bama.

Our odds to win out are basically 80%, so win out and we’re in.

 

[ab2cmiller]

ND is -330 on DraftKings, that’s 77% implied probability. Thats the 5th highest of any team, behind only OSU, IU, A&M, and Bama.

Our odds to win out are basically 75%, so win out and we’re in.

So the oddsmakers are implying that if we win out we have a 95+% chance of making the playoffs.

There is not one ounce of me that is going to worry about that 5% chance we don’t.

All of this handwringing is driving me nuts.

 

[irishu]

So if we have a 77% chance to make the playoffs and 75% chance to win out….you’re saying there’s a chance we get in with a 9-3 record???

 

[ab2cmiller]

So if we have a 77% chance to make the playoffs and 75% chance to win out….you’re saying there’s a chance we get in with a 9-3 record???

View attachment 3060935

I didn't even catch that the percentages were inverted. I just assumed that the chances of us winning out was the greater %.

 

[DillonHall]

we win out and we are in baring some truly strange happenings

This is simply inaccurate. It’s unlikely, but ND is gonna be out if the favored team wins every game the rest of the season

 

[NDRock]

ND is -330 to make the playoffs on DraftKings, that’s 77% implied probability. Thats the 5th highest of any team, behind only OSU, IU, A&M, and Bama.

Our odds to win out are basically 75%, so win out and we’re in.

That’s seems about right. There are things that could keep us out at 10-2 but I expect us to be in.

 

[burmafrd1944]

This is simply inaccurate. It’s unlikely, but ND is gonna be out if the favored team wins every game the rest of the season

you are simply WRONG
IF we win out we are in
only fools think otherwise

 

[burmafrd1944]

If Vanderbilt ends season with 2 losses total, Miami finishes with one loss but not ACC Champs, BYU/Texas Tech split regular season game and Big 12 championship game, Tennessee/Texas runs table...Notre Dame is out.


We need to happen-

• Vanderbilt lose to Texas, plus at least one more loss
• Texas lose to AM more than 1 point
• Tennessee lose to Oklahoma
• Oklahoma lose at least 1 more
• BYU or Texas Tech to win out and Big 12, probably need BYU to have 2 losses as well
• Virginia to lose 2

Would help-

• Ole Miss lose 2 more
• Oregon lose to USC
• Indiana lose 2
• Miami win ACC or lose two more

ridiculous
at least half the teams will have two losses and ND will have several factors in their favor as I pointed out

 

[DillonHall]

ridiculous
at least half the teams will have two losses and ND will have several factors in their favor as I pointed out

I would guess ND is going to have zero wins over teams that are ranked at the end of the season. The resume is going to be pretty weak

 

[Dizzyphil]

I would guess ND is going to have zero wins over teams that are ranked at the end of the season. The resume is going to be pretty weak

SEC and Big10 going to have to some serious 'cannibalism'...

 

[sixstar]

you are simply WRONG
IF we win out we are in
only fools think otherwise

bro talks like Vizzini

 

[DillonHall]

SEC and Big10 going to have to some serious 'cannibalism'...

I just don't see that - I think the SEC will get 5 teams. A&M, Georgia, Bama, and Ole Miss are in. And likely Vandy or Tennessee.

The B1G will likely get 3 - OSU, IU, Oregon

So that's 8 spots already gone. Big 12 will hopefully just get one. Then a G5 team makes 10 spots. If two ACC teams get in, we're out. The problem is Miami won't even make the ACC championship game barring upsets and Miami will stay ahead of us unless they implode and lose two more games

 

[Dizzyphil]

I just don't see that - I think the SEC will get 5 teams. A&M, Georgia, Bama, and Ole Miss are in. And likely Vandy or Tennessee.

The B1G will likely get 3 - OSU, IU, Oregon

So that's 8 spots already gone. Big 12 will hopefully just get one. Then a G5 team makes 10 spots. If two ACC teams get in, we're out. The problem is Miami won't even make the ACC championship game barring upsets and Miami will stay ahead of us unless they implode and lose two more games

Even with that scenario... Irish are still sitting on a thin bubble

 

[Wild Bill]

The initial rankings haven't been released and a ton of football left. We don't know shit.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The initial rankings haven't been released and a ton of football left. We don't know shit.

No we don't... But the remaining schedules don't lie ..

 

[stlnd01]

No we don't... But the remaining schedules don't lie ..

Yes they do. We just don't know how yet.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Yes they do. We just don't know how yet.

Irish has probably the weakest remaining schedule among the top 15... Don't fool yourself..

 

[jprue24]

Need some of these teams to get blown out.

 

[Wild Bill]

No we don't... But the remaining schedules don't lie ..

Yes we know the remaining schedule. Now we just need weekly polls and the results of the games left on the schedule.

 

[SportsingHard]

Although I believe ND will have the resume to make the playoffs if they go 10-2, it seems to me a lot of people are forgetting it's not ultimately about resumes (or at least not who beat whom and who lost to whom.) See undefeated FSU getting left out in 2023 because they were missing their QB. If ND keeps playing like they have been, they will have 1) the eyeball test, 2) advanced statistics, and 3) a 10-0 streak on their side, and those loom large. For those reasons and quality losses, any other 10-2 team is going to find it hard to top them.

 

[NDWarrior]

For sure nothing is guaranteed which is why, again, I would like to see the following losses that will help ND a lot because they also would result in being comparison points:

- USC to beat (ideally, clobber) Oregon
- Pitt beats GA Tech after we beat Pitt (ideally, handily by Q3 of the game)
- Vandy loses to either Texas or Tennessee

We win out and the above losses happen, I think we're probably pretty solidly in, even if it's the 11th or 12th ranked spot.

 

[TracyGraham]

I would guess ND is going to have zero wins over teams that are ranked at the end of the season. The resume is going to be pretty weak

So by the standard of favored team winning, USC will be 9-3(I'm assuming they will be favored against everyone except Oregon and will have 3 loses to 3 ranked teams). You dont think a 9-3 USC will be ranked???
Who needs enemies to crap on our schedule when our fans seem more than willing to do so?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Although I believe ND will have the resume to make the playoffs if they go 10-2, it seems to me a lot of people are forgetting it's not ultimately about resumes (or at least not who beat whom and who lost to whom.) See undefeated FSU getting left out in 2023 because they were missing their QB. If ND keeps playing like they have been, they will have 1) the eyeball test, 2) advanced statistics, and 3) a 10-0 streak on their side, and those loom large. For those reasons and quality losses, any other 10-2 team is going to find it hard to top them.

Exactly this, well said.

 

[NDRock]

Although I believe ND will have the resume to make the playoffs if they go 10-2, it seems to me a lot of people are forgetting it's not ultimately about resumes (or at least not who beat whom and who lost to whom.) See undefeated FSU getting left out in 2023 because they were missing their QB. If ND keeps playing like they have been, they will have 1) the eyeball test, 2) advanced statistics, and 3) a 10-0 streak on their side, and those loom large. For those reasons and quality losses, any other 10-2 team is going to find it hard to top them.

I agree that it's not always about resume. I think the 2023 thing came down to there was no way they were leaving out the SEC champion who went undefeated in SEC play, especially after they beat the #1 team in the country. The QB thing was a good excuse to fall back on. It was always stupid to have a 4 team playoff and 5 major conferences.

 

[DillonHall]

So by the standard of favored team winning, USC will be 9-3(I'm assuming they will be favored against everyone except Oregon and will have 3 loses to 3 ranked teams). You dont think a 9-3 USC will be ranked???
Who needs enemies to crap on our schedule when our fans seem more than willing to do so?

lol ok, so they’d probably be ranked 20-25 in that scenario. I’d be pleasantly surprised if they beat Nebraska

 

[BleedingGold]

I figure we need:

USC, Miami, NC State, and A&M to win out.
&
Pitt and Navy to win out minus ND.

This will maximize our competition and our chances for a home game. Obviously the Big 12 and SEC imploding helps too!

 

[pumpdog20]

Starting to get to the point where too much chaos needs to occur and I don't think enough will happen unfortunately.

 

[RudyVerse]

I figure we need:

USC, Miami, NC State, and A&M to win out.
&
Pitt and Navy to win out minus ND.

This will maximize our competition and our chances for a home game. Obviously the Big 12 and SEC imploding helps too!

Aren't we at the point of viewing Miami as a barrier given they're ranked #10 and we're #12?

 

[Bane]

Starting to get to the point where too much chaos needs to occur and I don't think enough will happen unfortunately.

This goes against all of the oddsmakers, the analytics sites (all of which have ranked in the top 5), and really just seems based on pessimism. Until the actual CFP rankings come out we don't actually know what we need to happen.