2025 College Football Playoffs

[IrishTusker]

If you look at the final CFP rankings in the playoff era (2014-2024) you see that the highest ranked 10-2 (or 10-3) team has been ranked between 5 and 9, with an average rank of 7, and that there have been between 3 and 6 10-2 teams in the top 11 (and an average of 4 such teams). (I looked at top 11 to account for the G5 spot). ND is currently the highest ranked 2 loss team, and I'm not sure that changes if ND wins out, even if assuming other teams go 10-2. So I think the odds are very good that we will be ranked in the top 12 if we win out. I think the main danger is that we would get bounced by a 'bid-stealer' that wins a CCG.

 

[SDIrishFan]

I’m curious if the CFP committee rankings will be a large departure from the other two polls?

 

[stlnd01]

To me it will boil down to 10-2 ND or a 5th SEC team — and I think the committee picks us based on the simple fact that we are patently better than every potential SEC squad. I really think it will be that simple. Good chance ACC gets only one team too — GT still has NC State, Pitt, and Georgia — that leaves another potential spot for ND.

SEC: 4 (Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas AM)
BIG: 3 (OSU, Indiana, Oregon)
ACC: 2 (Miami, Georgia Tech)
Big 12:1 (BYU)
P5: 1 (Whoever)
ND or 5th SEC (Tennessee/OU/Vandy)

If one of Tennessee/OU/Vandy beats us out it'd be purely because of SEC bias.
Oklahoma has three ranked opponents and LSU remaining. They'll drop one. (if they win out they deserve it)
Vandy, let's see what happens this week @Texas.
Tennessee has the easiest road to 10-2, but their best win would probably be... Vanderbilt. Their schedule is no tougher than ours and when it comes to common opponents they barely beat Arkansas.

We *should* be in over any of those teams. The biggest threat actually might be if Texas went on a heater, but that seems unlikely after they barely survived Mississippi State.

 

[burmafrd1944]

IF we win out we are in

we will be ranked around 8 or so

Miami loss our worst showing and it was first game of the season which quite often is discounted

some people need to worry about stupid things

 

[GATTACA!]

My prediction is that when the actual rankings drop for the first time we’ll be higher than we have been in the AP and most of this discourse will be moot.

 

[SWirishfan]

There is 0.0% chance the odds of ND going undefeated down the stretch is 18% is what I know.

Now with these game by game ND win estimate, the overall probability of 10-2 is ~73.8%

 

[irish4ever]

I’m not saying Michigan is any good but they could win like 6-3, the way Ohio State has played them the last few times.

scUM hasn't beat any team worth a damn thus far this year. Oklahoma is overrated and they wupped the skunkbears 24-13 earlier. And how in the hell are they ranked ahead of U$C? USC ran for 224 yards and outgained Michigan 489 to 316 and won 31-13, so what catapults them in front of U$C other than media bias? AP polling simply SUCKS (fake news). I can't wait until the REAL poll comes out next week.

 

[NDRock]

IF we win out we are in

we will be ranked around 8 or so

Miami loss our worst showing and it was first game of the season which quite often is discounted

some people need to worry about stupid things

I don’t think anyone is “worried”. People do tend to discuss subjects on a forum, dedicated to those subjects. Nothing wrong with playing out different “what ifs” regarding aspects of college football and Notre Dame specifically. We could all just shut the fuck up about the whole season and then do a recap thread at the end. Would keep me from wasting as much time as I do.

 

[GATTACA!]

I don’t think anyone is “worried”. People do tend to discuss subjects on a forum, dedicated to those subjects. Nothing wrong with playing out different “what ifs” regarding aspects of college football and Notre Dame specifically. We could all just shut the fuck up about the whole season and then do a recap thread at the end. Would keep me from wasting as much time as I do.

 

[rtrn2glory]

Now with these game by game ND win estimate, the overall probability of 10-2 is ~73.8%

This

Stats here look like they really like Pitt

 

[Me2SouthBend]

While I believe ND is very likely in if they win out, a couple of nail biter wins against BC, Navy and/or Stanford could make things very dicey. Win each week. Big.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Beat BC.

 

[Dale]

10 - 2 ND versus 10 - 2 Tennessee could be a deciding debate:



Would be ND losses to Miami and A&M versus Tennessee losses to Georgia and Alabama.

Tennessee would only have a Vandy win (OU likely to become a 4 or 5 loss team). ND could use USC being a ranked win and likely make up the difference with others

or OU wins this weekend and loses down the stretch and two more knocked out.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

10 - 2 ND versus 10 - 2 Tennessee could be a deciding debate:



Would be ND losses to Miami and A&M versus Tennessee losses to Georgia and Alabama.

Obviously if they beat OU and Vandy (I don't see that happening) things would change, but we would have two direct data points to compare if/when we smash Syracuse. They only beat AK by 3 at HOME.

That's a brutal resume. Very confident that ND would get in with their two close losses to projected playoff teams, with Boise, USC and Pitt wins on the resume. And anyone with half a brain can see the defense is playing night and day ball since September.

 

[NDRock]

Obviously if they beat OU and Vandy (I don't see that happening) things would change, but we would have two direct data points to compare if/when we smash Syracuse. They only beat AK by 3 at HOME.

That's a brutal resume. Very confident that ND would get in with their two close losses to projected playoff teams, with Boise, USC and Pitt wins on the resume. And anyone with half a brain can see the defense is playing night and day ball since September.

Tennessee is pretty average. I’d be more worried about a one loss Vanderbilt being the 5th SEC team.

 

[stlnd01]

Tennessee is pretty average. I’d be more worried about a one loss Vanderbilt being the 5th SEC team.

If Vandy doesn’t lose another they probably deserve a spot over us, tbh. But they probably will.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Reece Davis was on XM Off Campus and had 2 points of interest

He believes that Texas A&M has the best win of the season with the win over ND.

He believes that ND is one of the top 5 teams in the nation.

 

[NDPhilly]

Reece Davis setting the stage for Disney to get the big viewership option in lol. I’ll take it.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Reece Davis was on XM Off Campus and had 2 points of interest

He believes that Texas A&M has the best win of the season with the win over ND.

He believes that ND is one of the top 5 teams in the nation.

He said that a few weeks ago too, he's been consistent with that message.

 

[IrishLion]

Reece Davis setting the stage for Disney to get the big viewership option in lol. I’ll take it.

I’ve been saying. They aren’t leaving out the cash cow/ratings darling. 10-2 ND is in, period. No reason to stress if ND does their thing.

If they can help it, they’re gonna open the playoffs with ND on a Friday night again, either in a juicy road matchup, or in South Bend if they can do it without looking **too** suspicious about manipulating things for the viewership.

Other teams might draw better on a Friday, but it would depend on the matchup. They KNOW ND will draw on a Friday, regardless of matchup.

(it lowkey helps that continued distance from the stench of BK, combined with Freeman being so goddamn likable, continues to make ND look like the cool kid in town. When Reece and Kirk are suddenly going to bat for ND when it would’ve been easy to write them off for losing their two biggest games, you know shit has turned)

 

[Bane]

I’ve been saying. They aren’t leaving out the cash cow/ratings darling. 10-2 ND is in, period. No reason to stress if ND does their thing.

If they can help it, they’re gonna open the playoffs with ND on a Friday night again, either in a juicy road matchup, or in South Bend if they can do it without looking **too** suspicious about manipulating things for the viewership.

Other teams might draw better on a Friday, but it would depend on the matchup. They KNOW ND will draw on a Friday, regardless of matchup.

(it lowkey helps that continued distance from the stench of BK, combined with Freeman being so goddamn likable, continues to make ND look like the cool kid in town. When Reece and Kirk are suddenly going to bat for ND when it would’ve been easy to write them off for losing their two biggest games, you know shit has turned)

Add Saban in too. He's been singing our praises all season. After Miami he said we would go 11-1. After the Aggies he said we would go 10-2. I'm not used to such positive media attention.

 

[ozzman]

Klatt ran through a simulation to pick the bracket. Even at 10-2 we need the stars to sign

 

[IrishSpartan]

We really need these teams to lose a game before conference championships start:
1. Georgia Tech (This is super important, Georgia game doesn't matter must be an ACC game)
2. Vandy/Ole Miss (One needs to start losing)
3.BYU/Texas Tech(Cant have two Big12 teams)
4.Tennessee(Cant let a SEC sneak in past us)

ACC is really killing us right now, Miami's loss really hurt us and right now we are on the outside looking in. Must win out and look good doing it. Chaos is good, sadly I don't see us getting a home game to start.

 

[NDRock]

Klatt ran through a simulation to pick the bracket. Even at 10-2 we need the stars to sign

Was a pretty good breakdown. Will be interesting to see how it changes by the week.

 

[NorthDakota]

I’ve been saying. They aren’t leaving out the cash cow/ratings darling. 10-2 ND is in, period. No reason to stress if ND does their thing.

If they can help it, they’re gonna open the playoffs with ND on a Friday night again, either in a juicy road matchup, or in South Bend if they can do it without looking **too** suspicious about manipulating things for the viewership.

Other teams might draw better on a Friday, but it would depend on the matchup. They KNOW ND will draw on a Friday, regardless of matchup.

(it lowkey helps that continued distance from the stench of BK, combined with Freeman being so goddamn likable, continues to make ND look like the cool kid in town. When Reece and Kirk are suddenly going to bat for ND when it would’ve been easy to write them off for losing their two biggest games, you know shit has turned)

Depending on how I'm feeling I would strongly consider driving down for a playoff game (even fairly last minute - 24 hour notice all I need) if I came across a reasonably priced ticket.

 

[NDRock]

Depending on how I'm feeling I would strongly consider driving down for a playoff game (even fairly last minute - 24 hour notice all I need) if I came across a reasonably priced ticket.

Last year’s home playoff game was the best atmosphere I’ve seen at ND. Was awesome.

 

[NotKoon]

I'm starting to think we might actually bet better off if Miami drops a second one to SMU this week. Worst case scenario is 11-1 Miami who doesn't make the conference championship game. Also think the committee would take the team who dropped two games by 4 points and then won 10 straight over the team who looked great early and then faded

 

[KPENN]

I'm starting to think we might actually bet better off if Miami drops a second one to SMU this week. Worst case scenario is 11-1 Miami who doesn't make the conference championship game. Also think the committee would take the team who dropped two games by 4 points and then won 10 straight over the team who looked great early and then faded

Yeah I’m starting to think this too.

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm starting to think we might actually bet better off if Miami drops a second one to SMU this week. Worst case scenario is 11-1 Miami who doesn't make the conference championship game. Also think the committee would take the team who dropped two games by 4 points and then won 10 straight over the team who looked great early and then faded

I think we benefit from lots of losses now. Nobody is going to hold the Miami or TAMU games over ND's head anyway unless it comes down to us vs them dor spots

 

[NDQuebec]

I'm starting to think we might actually bet better off if Miami drops a second one to SMU this week. Worst case scenario is 11-1 Miami who doesn't make the conference championship game. Also think the committee would take the team who dropped two games by 4 points and then won 10 straight over the team who looked great early and then faded

You may be right but the committee gives a lot of importance to head to head matchups.