drayer54
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IDK man. 538 generic polls show majority want democratic congress and the women vote is pissed. Also show Dems likely to pick up multiple Senate seats while holding on to almost all of their current ones. House is now a tossup for Dems to remain in power but the abortion topic and general corruption of the GOP is a big deal for Dem turnout.
GOP wont put abortion back on any referendums ever again after what happened in kansas. That means getting a congress and president to legislate and codify is a huge deal for women. All the special elections have recently gone for Dems by a decent margin.
Dems have dramatically outspent GOP early, likely because the numbers were terrifying to them early, and they were dumping money on "MAGA Fascists" simultaneously to make hot primaries on the right. The GOP spending is just starting, and traditionally, an underwater President catches up with the incumbents in the closing months.
I struggle to believe abortion moves many people across the aisle on the vote. Especially as inflation and crime are still a black eye for Dems.
I'm not so confident in Senate races. Again, the early spending lead for dems, and 2020 R performance against polling was favorable.
Georgia looks good for the red team, even if election denier Abrams is underperforming Warnock.

