Russia Invades Ukraine

[NEIIrish]

Whiskey sorry but this is candy ass chicken crap spewing out of your pie hole.
How is this not a comparison with Russia and Nazi Germany? It is the same thing! The West is so afraid of starting something up that they dont dare want to stand up to evil. So they let people die and it wont stop Putin from his goals just like it didnt stop Hitler from his.
A nuclear armed Russia. Russia has been nuke armed for fifty years now. So what? Just roll over and let them do whatever they want until they plant their flag in your backyard? Im sure then you will man all the way up right?
Putin will not stop with Ukraine. His full intention is reclaiming the USSR and that means several NATO states.
But I guess it is okay to let 4.1 million people die and lose everything just as long as they dont knock on NATOs steps right? What happens then? Will you still be in the fetal position saying dont tempt a nuclear-armed Russia then too?

On the sliding scale of importance Taiwan definitely ranks higher than Ukraine. Also China is an easier boogyman than Russia, who half of the right seems to admire.

NDAK what's with the immediate politicized crapnote?
I suppose we're back to "Don't ask for whom the bell trolls, it trolls for thee," and back to ignore.

The veteran CIA and Pentagon officials have HUGE says in any decisions regarding nuclear matters and threats, so much so that certain retired generals have remarked that they would disobey certain types of proclamations by certain Presidents in recent memory. .... so shove the LOL and actually learn something. (I could have read the post as being from someone at least slightly serious without the "lol" but that's the talisman of the troll or the ignoramus --- neither is flattering nor useful.)

You lost all credibility when you said the CIA and military leaders weren’t politicos. LOL

 

[PerthDomer]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

Really good interview with a Russia scholar. Goes into what he sees this being a historic pattern of Russia and how NATO expansion made this better and not worse by moving the site of conflict to the Ukraine vs Poland/the Baltics.

"What we have today in Russia is not some kind of surprise. It’s not some kind of deviation from a historical pattern. Way before nato existed—in the nineteenth century—Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it’s not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in the nineteen-nineties. It’s not a response to the actions of the West. There are internal processes in Russia that account for where we are today."

"He’s getting what he wants to hear. In any case, he believes that he’s superior and smarter. This is the problem of despotism. It’s why despotism, or even just authoritarianism, is all-powerful and brittle at the same time. Despotism creates the circumstances of its own undermining. The information gets worse. The sycophants get greater in number. The corrective mechanisms become fewer. And the mistakes become much more consequential."

 

[PerthDomer]

Probably goes back in. Though I doubt Ukraine would rebuild their military with the Bear keeping an eye on them.

We all want things we can't have. Ukraine isn't worth dying for and I'm guessing their leadership has found that out the last week or two.

The history of the Ukraine is choosing to die to be free even if it doesn't work. They resisted the Nazis, they resisted the USSR and were starved to death. The lesson of the last 2 weeks is they're getting more willing to die for freedom. I'd also remind you they haven't even entered the Ukranian speaking part of the country yet. The resistance in Mariupol for example is in one of the most linguistically and ethnically Russian cities in the country.

Also the longer this goes the more russia's resource base dies off. They need microchips they can't get. They need western equipment to extract resources and farm. The longer these sanctions last the weaker their resource base gets.

 

[NorthDakota]

You lost all credibility when you said the CIA and military leaders weren’t politicos. LOL

Doubt Old Man Mike has any understanding of the damage the CIA took when John Brennan took a media job and told us his thoughts.

George Bush 1 was a Neocon willing to reneg in his promise to not raise taxes. Burnt some bridges. But thats the sort of cat who was absolutely qualified to run the CIA. John Brennan is, was, and always will be an embarrassment to the American people. Much like the entire generation who followed the Greatest Generation.

 

[NorthDakota]

The history of the Ukraine is choosing to die to be free even if it doesn't work. They resisted the Nazis, they resisted the USSR and were starved to death. The lesson of the last 2 weeks is they're getting more willing to die for freedom. I'd also remind you they haven't even Pentwater the Ukranian speaking part of the country yet. The resistance in Mariupol for example is in one of the most linguistically and ethnically Russian countries in the country.

Also the longer this goes the more russia's resource base dies off. They need microchips they can't get. They need western equipment to extract resources and farm. The longer these sanctions last the weaker their resource base gets.

Good for them. They will die then. Not my problem.

Btw...tractors work for a long time. Anyone who has worked on a farm knows that. I'm sure they'll manage. And I doubt we'll keep the sanctions up. It costs us money to lock Russia out of the world economy. Elections are coming up.

End of the day, we'll quietly lift sanctions. Pretty gross that people are rooting for Ukrainian people to stand up to a country and die while we just watch on our phones. We aren't gonna do anything. They should make a deal.

 

[BrownerandFry]

A simple arithmetic question

Putin PROMISED survivors of his Ukrainian war dead the ruble equivalent of $65,000 American.

If they lose, say 1,000 soldiers, that is 65 million.

If they lost say 20,000 which could happen if there is urban warfare in Kyiv.

That is 1.3 billion

The Russian defense budget is only 70 billion.

Germany by doubling its budget, will have a more robust defense budget than Russia. Deutschland 100 b/Russia 70 b.

Is Vlad going to be able to pay the survivors out of petty cash?

He has loans coming due.

What if the survivors of the Russian War dead start knocking on the door looking for the $65 k.?

 

[PerthDomer]

A simple arithmetic question

Putin PROMISED survivors of his Ukrainian war dead the ruble equivalent of $65,000 American.

If they lose, say 1,000 soldiers, that is 65 million.

If they lost say 20,000 which could happen if there is urban warfare in Kyiv.

That is 1.3 billion

The Russian defense budget is only 70 billion.

Germany by doubling its budget, will have a more robust defense budget than Russia. Deutschland 100 b/Russia 70 b.

Is Vlad going to be able to pay the survivors out of petty cash?

He has loans coming due.

What if the survivors of the Russian War dead start knocking on the door looking for the $65 k.?

They're going to see really heavy inflation and then potentially hyperinflation. The Putin base in Russia is culturally analogous to MAGA here. People in the countryside, pensioners, etc. Putin is already raising pension benefits. He'll continue to spend more to keep his base loyal. The Rouble can't buy what it used to outside the country and the money supply is increasing while real GDP is plummeting. If the Ukranians can hold out a few months the domestic situation in Russia will get uglier.

 

[NorthDakota]

Does anyone actually believe Germany is gonna rearm? Look...I love German culture. Their history is incredibly interesting. My ancestry is nearly entirely Kraut. They make good cars and great weapons.... but they are a useless country filled with useless people.

Germany rearming has zero value to Ukraine. This is all virtue signaling. Notice nobody is gonna help Ukraine beyond pledging to give them anti-tank and anti-air weapons.

 

[PerthDomer]

Does anyone actually believe Germany is gonna rearm? Look...I love German culture. Their history is incredibly interesting. My ancestry is nearly entirely Kraut. They make good cars and great weapons.... but they are a useless country filled with useless people.

Germany rearming has zero value to Ukraine. This is all virtue signaling. Notice nobody is gonna help Ukraine beyond pledging to give them anti-tank and anti-air weapons.

Yes. They've seen the danger of their old approach. And it helps us because a rearmed Europe can deal with their near abroad and free us up to deal with Asia. Increasing their LNG import ability is also good for our economy.

The sanctions are going to last for a while. Even if they abate as long as Putin is in charge Russia will be seen as much riskier to deal with and foreign investment won't flood back in. You'll see accelerating emigration of young Russians and their economy continue to circle the drain.

 

[NorthDakota]

Yes. They've seen the danger of their old approach. And it helps us because a rearmed Europe can deal with their near abroad and free us up to deal with Asia. Increasing their LNG import ability is also good for our economy.

The sanctions are going to last for a while. Even if they abate as long as Putin is in charge Russia will be seen as much riskier to deal with and foreign investment won't flood back in. You'll see accelerating emigration of young Russians and their economy continue to circle the drain.

I'm sorry but I see no value in making Russia a pariah. That just begs for more conflict. No state benefits more than my own from this btw. North Dakota is among the leaders in grain, oil, gas, etc.

This weird desire to punish Russian people needs to stop. Our current actions have basically encouraged them to double down. We haven't provided them an off ramp in any way (at least publicly), and now thousands of Russian young men and thousands of Ukrainians of all ages are going to die.

Hopefully they reach a deal soon. Ukraine surely understands now that we aren't going to save them. Russia hopefully sees their own predicament as well.

 

[BrownerandFry]

Well, there are already a bunch of Stingers and Javelins in the Ukrainian Freedom Fighters' hands hands.


Now, in collaboration with NATO, America is sending some very sophisticated MANPADS to the Ukrainians. And it is moving swiftly.

Vlad thought he had "a schematic advantage." Uh, not so much, Vlad

 

[IrishLax]

 

[NorthDakota]

Well, there are already a bunch of Stingers and Javelins in the Ukrainian Freedom Fighters' hands hands.


Now, in collaboration with NATO, America is sending some very sophisticated MANPADS to the Ukrainians. And it is moving swiftly.

Vlad thought he had "a schematic advantage." Uh, not so much, Vlad

Congrats on rooting for people to die and for suffering.

Vlad has a big schematic advantage. It's called big guns and nukes lol. Ukraine has neither.

 

[NorthDakota]

That could be true, but Ukrainian media has been objectively garbage during this entire thing. They want western intervention. So they raise the stakes of allegations.

 

[PerthDomer]

I'm sorry but I see no value in making Russia a pariah. That just begs for more conflict. No state benefits more than my own from this btw. North Dakota is among the leaders in grain, oil, gas, etc.

This weird desire to punish Russian people needs to stop. Our current actions have basically encouraged them to double down. We haven't provided them an off ramp in any way (at least publicly), and now thousands of Russian young men and thousands of Ukrainians of all ages are going to die.

Hopefully they reach a deal soon. Ukraine surely understands now that we aren't going to save them. Russia hopefully sees their own predicament as well.

The off ramp is regime change. Every time Russia has lost a war or taken unacceptable losses we've seen it. Addition of a parliament post Russo-Japanese war, deposition of the Tsar in WWI, Afganistan pushing the USSR to fall.

We root against Russia because they're a malign actor. They prop up dictatorships, assassinate people publicly in other countries, and generally just try to stir up shit. Weakening them also cuts off China from its strongest strategic ally. The stuff they extract can be extracted elsewhere (including the US).

Several great powers have lost wars vs. Weaker ones that were willing to suffer more. See the US in 1776, Vietnam, etc. Why do you think Russia will fare differently here. And why do you see that as inevitable?

 

[BrownerandFry]

So much for "SANCTIONPROOFING" The Russian economy

Divestment From Russia by Foreign Business Could Increase Pressure on Putin

While Putin made prewar preparations to attempt to sanction-proof the Russian economy, he was not ready for the risk of a mass foreign exodus from the Russian market.

www.lawfareblog.com

Putin will soon start squealing like Ned Beatty in Deliverance

This is not yet three weeks old....

Old "Mo" has switched sides.

 

[NorthDakota]

The off ramp is regime change. Every time Russia has lost a war or taken unacceptable losses we've seen it. Addition of a parliament post Russo-Japanese war, deposition of the Tsar in WWI, Afganistan pushing the USSR to fall.

We root against Russia because they're a malign actor. They prop up dictatorships, assassinate people publicly in other countries, and generally just try to stir up shit. Weakening them also cuts off China from its strongest strategic ally. The stuff they extract can be extracted elsewhere (including the US).

Several great powers have lost wars vs. Weaker ones that were willing to suffer more. See the US in 1776, Vietnam, etc. Why do you think Russia will fare differently here. And why do you see that as inevitable?

That's not an off ramp in any way, shape, or form.

Sorry but thats just dumb and war hawk nonsense.

Ukraine has already lost. Their cities are being besieged. Millions have fled. Thousands have died and that number will only go up.

If they want this to end they'll make a deal.

 

[NorthDakota]

So much for "SANCTIONPROOFING" The Russian economy

Divestment From Russia by Foreign Business Could Increase Pressure on Putin

While Putin made prewar preparations to attempt to sanction-proof the Russian economy, he was not ready for the risk of a mass foreign exodus from the Russian market.

www.lawfareblog.com

Putin will soon start squealing like Ned Beatty in Deliverance

This is not yet three weeks old....

Old "Mo" has switched sides.

Maybe Russia will squeal.... but I have my doubts. A hard people led by a hard man. They have suffered through much worse historically.

 

[PerthDomer]

That's not an off ramp in any way, shape, or form.

Sorry but thats just dumb and war hawk nonsense.

Ukraine has already lost. Their cities are being besieged. Millions have fled. Thousands have died and that number will only go up.

If they want this to end they'll make a deal.

Did the North Vietnamese lose the Vietnam War? The Taliban lose in Afganistan? I'm honestly surprised at the conventional success Ukraine has had. The part Russia can't win is the occupation. If Putin wants he has an off ramp of withdrawing now. But he won't. So millions on both sides will suffer due to one man's pride and despotism.

 

[IrishLax]

Maybe Russia will squeal.... but I have my doubts. A hard people led by a hard man. They have suffered through much worse historically.

Yeah but now those people have “something to lose.” They’re not going to electively go back to breadlines and poverty to fight some dictator’s optional war. It’s a question of when not if Putin gets replaced with the status quo.

 

[NorthDakota]

Did the North Vietnamese lose the Vietnam War? The Taliban lose in Afganistan? I'm honestly surprised at the conventional success Ukraine has had. The part Russia can't win is the occupation. If Putin wants he has an off ramp of withdrawing now. But he won't. So millions on both sides will suffer due to one man's pride and despotism.

Congrats on rooting for millions to die.

Russia (allegedly) offered to basically take the Russian parts of Ukraine. If that's the case, seems pretty fair and is likely a big acknowledgment that they figured out Ukraine wasn't gonna fall apart at the sight of Russian troops.

Make a deal. I give zero shits about a largely Godless country who aborts their children at 50%+ rates.... but I hate to see the the bloodshed.

 

[PerthDomer]

Maybe Russia will squeal.... but I have my doubts. A hard people led by a hard man. They have suffered through much worse historically.

They have 20% interest rates. Higher than the Volker shock. Then sanctions. The reason NK or Iran don't respond to sanction is their relative well being was low to start with. They're like the frog that got boiled slowly. This is a massive shock at the same time tens of thousands will be dying. If Russians were bought into this war before it started you might have a point. But they weren't. Putin won't even call this a war for that reason.

 

[NorthDakota]

Yeah but now those people have “something to lose.” They’re not going to electively go back to breadlines and poverty to fight some dictator’s optional war. It’s a question of when not if Putin gets replaced with the status quo.

Their status quo is a Putin like figure. They've never not been led by a strongman.

Think it might be best for folks to accept Russia for what it is.

 

[PerthDomer]

Congrats on rooting for millions to die.

Russia (allegedly) offered to basically take the Russian parts of Ukraine. If that's the case, seems pretty fair and is likely a big acknowledgment that they figured out Ukraine wasn't gonna fall apart at the sight of Russian troops.

Make a deal. I give zero shits about a largely Godless country who aborts their children at 50%+ rates.... but I hate to see the the bloodshed.

I'm not "rooting" for anything. This is a tragedy. If Putin would withdraw and we could have the status quo that'd be the best outcome. But we live in the real world.

I've fortunately never lived in a country under attack and had to decide between freedom and safety. I'd like to think id make the same choice as the Ukranians or our Founding Fathers.

The offer btw was territory plus disarming the country plus Zelensky as a figurehead with Russian backed administration. That'd get a no from me because once you disarm... they can come back if you say elect someone they don't like.

 

[NorthDakota]

They have 20% interest rates. Higher than the Volker shock. Then sanctions. The reason NK or Iran don't respond to sanction is their relative well being was low to start with. They're like the frog that got boiled slowly. This is a massive shock at the same time tens of thousands will be dying. If Russians were bought into this war before it started you might have a point. But they weren't. Putin won't even call this a war for that reason.

I think that works with western countries. I'm not convinced Russians will respond to that. I hope they do.

Henry Kissinger said regarding Vietnam that you need to know what your enemies care about. Basically the US fought in Vietnam the way we fought Germany. But it turned out we were fighting Vietnam... not Germany.

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm not "rooting" for anything. This is a tragedy. If Putin would withdraw and we could have the status quo that'd be the best outcome. But we live in the real world.

I've fortunately never lived in a country under attack and had to decide between freedom and safety. I'd like to think id make the same choice as the Ukranians or our Founding Fathers.

The offer btw was territory plus disarming the country plus Zelensky as a figurehead with Russian backed administration. That'd get a no from me because once you disarm... they can come back if you say elect someone they don't like.

As long as we don't get involved.... whatever works for me. If I was leading Ukraine, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat. Doesn't matter if they have a military.... they'll never be in NATO. If they come back, every Ukrainian probably has an AK in their basement anyway

 

[PerthDomer]

I think that works with western countries. I'm not convinced Russians will respond to that. I hope they do.

Henry Kissinger said regarding Vietnam that you need to know what your enemies care about. Basically the US fought in Vietnam the way we fought Germany. But it turned out we were fighting Vietnam... not Germany.

And to the Russian people the Ukraine is Vietnam politically, except they're killing their relatives in many cases. This has been a horrible miscalculation by Putin.

 

[PerthDomer]

As long as we don't get involved.... whatever works for me. If I was leading Ukraine, I'd take that deal in a heartbeat. Doesn't matter if they have a military.... they'll never be in NATO. If they come back, every Ukrainian probably has an AK in their basement anyway

Russia's invasion in 2014 and now weren't about NATO. They're about Ukraine's economy integrating more with Europe and less with Russia. Which has been the pattern since then. Putin doesn't want his people looking to the West.

Also, I'm curious. Would you have advised the poles to bend the knee in WW2? Should the soviets have stood down to avoid the death of tens of millions? Did the Asian countries that fought wars to resist Japan make a mistake?

 

[NorthDakota]

And to the Russian people the Ukraine is Vietnam politically, except they're killing their relatives in many cases. This has been a horrible miscalculation by Putin.

That may well be. I would agree it was a miscalculation.

But the fact that they are relatives would seem to fortify Putin's assertion that Ukraine belongs with Russia. After all.... the two are related. That only gives him a casus belli as far as I'm concerned.

 

[NorthDakota]

Russia's invasion in 2014 and now weren't about NATO. They're about Ukraine's economy integrating more with Europe and less with Russia. Which has been the pattern since then. Putin doesn't want his people looking to the West.

Also, I'm curious. Would you have advised the poles to bend the knee in WW2? Should the soviets have stood down to avoid the death of tens of millions? Did the Asian countries that fought wars to resist Japan make a mistake?

Poland was fighting for their lives. Germany had plans to basically send all the Slavs to Siberia. Ditto on the Russians.

Russia has no intention of liquidating what they perceive as their own people.