If your standard for POTUS is simply āno worse than Trumpā then you have extremely low taste in leaders. I demand better for the US regardless of party affiliation but it seems to get worse each cycle.
Economic impact overall must combine an aanalysis of
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| Year | Annual GDP Growth | Inflation (December, YOY) | Unemployment Rate (December) | Business Cycle and Notable Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | N/A | 0.6% | 3.2% | August peak and October market crash |
| 1930 | -8.5% | -6.4% | 8.7% | Contraction |
| 1931 | -6.4% | -9.3% | 15.9% | Contraction |
| 1932 | -12.9% | -10.3% | 23.6% | Contraction |
| 1933 | -1.2% | 0.8% | 24.9% | New Deal and March trough |
| 1934 | 10.8% | 1.5% | 21.7% | Expansion |
| 1935 | 8.9% | 3.0% | 20.1% | Expansion |
| 1936 | 12.9% | 1.4% | 16.9% | Expansion |
| 1937 | 5.1% | 2.9% | 14.3% | May peak |
| 1938 | -3.3% | -2.8% | 19.0% | June trough |
| 1939 | 8.0% | 0% | 17.2% | Expansion and Dust Bowl ended |
| 1940 | 8.8% | 0.7% | 14.6% | Expansion |
| 1941 | 17.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Expansion and WWII |
| 1942 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 4.7% | Expansion |
| 1943 | 17.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | Expansion |
| 1944 | 8.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | Bretton Woods |
| 1945 | -1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | February peak, recession, October trough |
| 1946 | -11.6% | 18.1% | 3.9% | Expansion and Fed cuts |
| 1947 | -1.1% | 8.8% | 3.6% | Marshall Plan and Cold War |
| 1948 | 4.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | November peak |
| 1949 | -0.6% | -2.1% | 6.6% | October trough and NATO |
| 1950 | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | Expansion and Korean War |
| 1951 | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% | Expansion |
| 1952 | 4.1% | 0.8% | 2.7% | Expansion |
| 1953 | 4.7% | 0.7% | 4.5% | Korean War ended and July peak |
| 1954 | -0.6% | -0.7% | 5.0% | May trough, Dow at 1929 level |
| 1955 | 7.1% | 0.4% | 4.2% | Expansion |
| 1956 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | Expansion |
| 1957 | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.2% | August peak |
| 1958 | -0.7% | 1.8% | 6.2% | April trough |
| 1959 | 6.9% | 1.7% | 5.3% | Fed raised rates |
| 1960 | 2.6% | 1.4% | 6.6% | April peak and Fed cut |
| 1961 | 2.6% | 0.7% | 6.0% | JFK spending and February trough |
| 1962 | 6.1% | 1.3% | 5.5% | Cuban Missile Crisis |
| 1963 | 4.4% | 1.6% | 5.5% | LBJ spending, Fed raised rates |
| 1964 | 5.8% | 1.0% | 5.0% | Fed raised rate |
| 1965 | 6.5% | 1.9% | 4.0% | Vietnam War, Fed raised rates |
| 1966 | 6.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | Expansion, Fed raised rates |
| 1967 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | Expansion |
| 1968 | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.4% | Fed raised rates |
| 1969 | 3.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | Nixon, Fed raised rates, December peak |
| 1970 | 0.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | November trough, Fed cut rates |
| 1971 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 6.0% | Expansion and wage-price controls |
| 1972 | 5.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | Expansion |
| 1973 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 4.9% | Vietnam War and gold standard ended, November peak. |
| 1974 | -0.5% | 12.3% | 7.2% | Stagflation, Watergate, Fed raised rates |
| 1975 | -0.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | March trough, Fed cut rates |
| 1976 | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | Expansion, Fed cut rates |
| 1977 | 4.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | Carter took office |
| 1978 | 5.5% | 9.0% | 6.0% | Fed raised rates |
| 1979 | 3.2% | 13.3% | 6.0% | Fed raised then lowered rate |
| 1980 | -0.3% | 12.5% | 7.2% | Januart peak, Fed raised rates, July trough |
| 1981 | 2.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | Reagan, Expansion peaked in July |
| 1982 | -1.8% | 3.8% | 10.8% | November trough, Fed cut rates |
| 1983 | 4.6% | 3.8% | 8.3% | Reagan spent on defense |
| 1984 | 7.2% | 3.9% | 7.3% | Expansion |
| 1985 | 4.2% | 3.8% | 7.0% | Expansion |
| 1986 | 3.5% | 1.1% | 6.6% | Tax cuts |
| 1987 | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | Black Monday |
| 1988 | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | Expansion, Fed raised rates |
| 1989 | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.4% | S&L Crisis |
| 1990 | 1.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | July peak |
| 1991 | -0.1% | 3.1% | 7.3% | March trough |
| 1992 | 3.5% | 2.9% | 7.4% | Expansion, Fed cut rates |
| 1993 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 6.5% | Expansion |
| 1994 | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.5% | Expansion |
| 1995 | 2.7% | 2.5% | 5.6% | Fed raised rates |
| 1996 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | Fed cut rate |
| 1997 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | Fed raised rates |
| 1998 | 4.5% | 1.6% | 4.4% | LTCM crisis |
| 1999 | 4.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | Expansion |
| 2000 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | Expansion |
| 2001 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.7% | March peak, 9/11, and November trough |
| 2002 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 6.0% | Expansion |
| 2003 | 2.8% | 1.9% | 5.7% | JGTRRA |
| 2004 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | Expansion |
| 2005 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | Expansion |
| 2006 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | Expansion |
| 2007 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | December peak |
| 2008 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 7.3% | Contraction and Financial Crisis |
| 2009 | -2.6% | 2.7% | 9.9% | June trough |
| 2010 | 2.7% | 1.5% | 9.3% | Obamacare and Dodd-Frank |
| 2011 | 1.5% | 3.0% | 8.5% | Expansion |
| 2012 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 7.9% | Expansion |
| 2013 | 1.8% | 1.5% | 6.7% | Expansion |
| 2014 | 2.3% | 0.8% | 5.6% | Expansion |
| 2015 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 5.0% | Strong dollar, low oil prices, Fed raised rates steadily |
| 2016 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.7% | Presidential race |
| 2017 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 4.1% | Weakening dollar boosted growth |
| 2018 | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.9% | Trump tax plan boosted growth |
| 2019 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | Goldilocks economy |
| 2020 | -3.4% | 1.4% | 6.7% | February peak before recession |
| 2021 | 5.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | Recovery, resettling after new strains of coronavirus |
Economic impact overall must combine an aanalysis of
GDP
Inflation
Unemployment
An inflation parrot is not an economist.
US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year Compared to Inflation and Unemployment
U.S. Real GDP Growth Rate by Year, Compared to Inflation and Unemployment
The U.S. real GDP growth rate since 1929 has varied greatly. The chart in this article compares it to inflation, unemployment, and business cycle phases.www.thebalance.com
DP Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment by Year
The table below shows how GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates have changed each year since 1929. GDP is the annual rate and inflation is for December of that year and is the year-over-year rate.43 The unemployment rate is as of December that year. Unemployment rates for the years 1929 through 1947 were calculated from a different BLS source as current BLS data only goes back to 1948.67 You'll also find notes for events that happened each year, or which phase of the business cycle the economy was in at that year.
Year Annual GDP Growth Inflation (December, YOY) Unemployment Rate (December) Business Cycle and Notable Events 1929 N/A 0.6% 3.2% August peak and October market crash 1930 -8.5% -6.4% 8.7% Contraction 1931 -6.4% -9.3% 15.9% Contraction 1932 -12.9% -10.3% 23.6% Contraction 1933 -1.2% 0.8% 24.9% New Deal and March trough 1934 10.8% 1.5% 21.7% Expansion 1935 8.9% 3.0% 20.1% Expansion 1936 12.9% 1.4% 16.9% Expansion 1937 5.1% 2.9% 14.3% May peak 1938 -3.3% -2.8% 19.0% June trough 1939 8.0% 0% 17.2% Expansion and Dust Bowl ended 1940 8.8% 0.7% 14.6% Expansion 1941 17.7% 9.9% 9.9% Expansion and WWII 1942 18.9% 9.0% 4.7% Expansion 1943 17.0% 3.0% 1.9% Expansion 1944 8.0% 2.3% 1.2% Bretton Woods 1945 -1.0% 2.2% 1.9% February peak, recession, October trough 1946 -11.6% 18.1% 3.9% Expansion and Fed cuts 1947 -1.1% 8.8% 3.6% Marshall Plan and Cold War 1948 4.1% 3.0% 4.0% November peak 1949 -0.6% -2.1% 6.6% October trough and NATO 1950 8.7% 5.9% 4.3% Expansion and Korean War 1951 8.0% 6.0% 3.1% Expansion 1952 4.1% 0.8% 2.7% Expansion 1953 4.7% 0.7% 4.5% Korean War ended and July peak 1954 -0.6% -0.7% 5.0% May trough, Dow at 1929 level 1955 7.1% 0.4% 4.2% Expansion 1956 2.1% 3.0% 4.2% Expansion 1957 2.1% 2.9% 5.2% August peak 1958 -0.7% 1.8% 6.2% April trough 1959 6.9% 1.7% 5.3% Fed raised rates 1960 2.6% 1.4% 6.6% April peak and Fed cut 1961 2.6% 0.7% 6.0% JFK spending and February trough 1962 6.1% 1.3% 5.5% Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 4.4% 1.6% 5.5% LBJ spending, Fed raised rates 1964 5.8% 1.0% 5.0% Fed raised rate 1965 6.5% 1.9% 4.0% Vietnam War, Fed raised rates 1966 6.6% 3.5% 3.8% Expansion, Fed raised rates 1967 2.7% 3.0% 3.8% Expansion 1968 4.9% 4.7% 3.4% Fed raised rates 1969 3.1% 6.2% 3.5% Nixon, Fed raised rates, December peak 1970 0.2% 5.6% 6.1% November trough, Fed cut rates 1971 3.3% 3.3% 6.0% Expansion and wage-price controls 1972 5.3% 3.4% 5.2% Expansion 1973 5.6% 8.7% 4.9% Vietnam War and gold standard ended, November peak. 1974 -0.5% 12.3% 7.2% Stagflation, Watergate, Fed raised rates 1975 -0.2% 6.9% 8.2% March trough, Fed cut rates 1976 5.4% 4.9% 7.8% Expansion, Fed cut rates 1977 4.6% 6.7% 6.4% Carter took office 1978 5.5% 9.0% 6.0% Fed raised rates 1979 3.2% 13.3% 6.0% Fed raised then lowered rate 1980 -0.3% 12.5% 7.2% Januart peak, Fed raised rates, July trough 1981 2.5% 8.9% 8.5% Reagan, Expansion peaked in July 1982 -1.8% 3.8% 10.8% November trough, Fed cut rates 1983 4.6% 3.8% 8.3% Reagan spent on defense 1984 7.2% 3.9% 7.3% Expansion 1985 4.2% 3.8% 7.0% Expansion 1986 3.5% 1.1% 6.6% Tax cuts 1987 3.5% 4.4% 5.7% Black Monday 1988 4.2% 4.4% 5.3% Expansion, Fed raised rates 1989 3.7% 4.6% 5.4% S&L Crisis 1990 1.9% 6.1% 6.3% July peak 1991 -0.1% 3.1% 7.3% March trough 1992 3.5% 2.9% 7.4% Expansion, Fed cut rates 1993 2.8% 2.7% 6.5% Expansion 1994 4.0% 2.7% 5.5% Expansion 1995 2.7% 2.5% 5.6% Fed raised rates 1996 3.8% 3.3% 5.4% Fed cut rate 1997 4.4% 1.7% 4.7% Fed raised rates 1998 4.5% 1.6% 4.4% LTCM crisis 1999 4.8% 2.7% 4.0% Expansion 2000 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% Expansion 2001 1.0% 1.6% 5.7% March peak, 9/11, and November trough 2002 1.7% 2.4% 6.0% Expansion 2003 2.8% 1.9% 5.7% JGTRRA 2004 3.9% 3.3% 5.4% Expansion 2005 3.5% 3.4% 4.9% Expansion 2006 2.8% 2.5% 4.4% Expansion 2007 2.0% 4.1% 5.0% December peak 2008 0.1% 0.1% 7.3% Contraction and Financial Crisis 2009 -2.6% 2.7% 9.9% June trough 2010 2.7% 1.5% 9.3% Obamacare and Dodd-Frank 2011 1.5% 3.0% 8.5% Expansion 2012 2.3% 1.7% 7.9% Expansion 2013 1.8% 1.5% 6.7% Expansion 2014 2.3% 0.8% 5.6% Expansion 2015 2.7% 0.7% 5.0% Strong dollar, low oil prices, Fed raised rates steadily 2016 1.7% 2.1% 4.7% Presidential race 2017 2.3% 2.1% 4.1% Weakening dollar boosted growth 2018 2.9% 1.9% 3.9% Trump tax plan boosted growth 2019 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% Goldilocks economy 2020 -3.4% 1.4% 6.7% February peak before recession 2021 5.7% 7.0% 3.9% Recovery, resettling after new strains of coronavirus
ARTICLE SOURCES
the chart is instructive as it lays out the data side by side, and discloses what is, for some, some "incovenient truths"
about recenet economic data and growth
Facts are facts
Lies are lies
Gas prices in Ireland say no.
Biden excuses are really getting more and more of a joke. Biden and friends printed trillions and trillions and you can see the
results from the beginning of his Presidency.
None of his policy goals help but keeps telling us to go buy a Tesla.
The day Ukraine fell under attack, Biden's political assault on oil and gas continued, but it's global, blame Russia, etc.
Biden pauses new oil and gas leases amid legal battle over cost of climate change
The leasing pause comes after a Louisiana federal judge blocked officials from using higher cost estimates of climate change.www.cnbc.com
It's prob a good thing. 81 million Americans deserve this crap.
Joes had too many missteps for them to be forgotten in the next 2-4 months. Repubs will keep reminding everyone.
I don't think this looks as good as you may seem to think it does.
Iāll throw my hat into the ring a little bitā¦ā¦..Iām an environmental scientist by eduction but have worked on the business side for most of my working life. That being said, my organization has a lot (i.e. hundreds) of clients that work in the oilfield industry. This would include service contractors, product manufacturers and all kinds of companies working upstream, midstream and downstream. Most all of them say that the current governmental administration has curbed their ability to produce āmoreā oil and natural gas. It has also become increasingly difficult for them to handle the logistical side of moving product for a number of reasons. I donāt generally ask them for specifics but it has been a common theme the past year. I am all for alternative energy that will be efficient as well as kinder to the planet. I also realize that we are a long way from really being able to do that consistently. As we build out the infrastructure for EVs, convert power plants from coal/petroleum, make EVs affordable to everyone, etcā¦ā¦.it would be wise to make efficient use of the petroleum resources we have available to us rather than make it difficult.
I think that is all fair, and good points. My point lays more in that most of the market is dictated outside of NA, so it's tough to be the market setters and if OPEC etc. raise their prices why would any NA corp not raise their prices.
Understood TG and I appreciate your response. I would theorize that the more independent the US can be in energy production, the more control we as a country would have in setting the price for petroleum here. Some countries are very dependent on outside sources to meet their energy needs but here in North America, that is not necessarily the case. Obviously, we have to use our resources in an environmentally responsible manner but that doesnāt mean we shouldnāt use them if we can.
That's where the rub is. Produce more here and we're not as dependent on pricing from other sources.
I get that and to some extent I believe that would help with things like transportation/quality control. With pricing though, I just can't see the big O&G corps accepting a lower rate without some sort of government subsidy. Unless we can get to a level of global oversupply which would take an incredible effort by everyone.
In the short term, almost nothing can be done other than largely symbolic moves of releasing national reserves. Maybe you can convince other countries such as Saudia Arabia to open the spigot a little more.
Haven't the Suadis and UAE already pushed back against increasing US oil output? Thought I read that somewhere recently.
Don't think they would push back against the US increasing oil output. Biden's trying to convince them that they should increase production. UAE appears to be more supportive on that subject. The Saudi's don't appear to be receptive.
Sorry, that's what I meant. Which just leads me back to the question: What is the US supposed to do? Ban oil from one terrible government, only to be begging other terrible governments to make up for it. More domestic drilling doesn't seem to help in the short term as described in the other thread. Not to say that it couldn't help at least at some point in the future. But as far as immediate impacts? What needs to happen and what's a realistic time period to see prices begin to fall back to a reasonable rate?
Wasn't aware the they had done this already. Is it a percentage of the sale price?