Path to the CFP?

[GATTACA!]

Neither Michigan state nor Pittsburgh moves needle much as they are teams we have played a ton lf those are the options then i pick whoever we are most likely to beat

I think in order of most likely ND win to least it would go...

MSU > OKSU > Pitt

Assuming the Oklahoma State RB is still out. If he'll be healthy then I'd flip them and Pitt.

I don't really care who we play as long as we win and get the Freeman era off on the right foot. No one gives a shit about any of these bowls and a win over any one of these teams doesn't move the needle more than another.

 

[IrishLax]

Pitt has the best QB and best offense which is why ND would be most likely to lose that game. They’d also be the most lowly ranked team, in the worst game, which would be lame.

MSU is best matchup for ND. Paper tiger built on running the ball, not particularly good at anything. Oklahoma State is the next best matchup — well coached team but devoid of NFL talent.

Really, all I care about is being in the Fiesta. That’s a good bowl on New Years Day.

 

[SBirishlawyer]

Only upside i see to okie state is dont know of we ever played em before and if so not in my lifetime/memory

 

[GATTACA!]

Pitt has the best QB and best offense which is why ND would be most likely to lose that game. They’d also be the most lowly ranked team, in the worst game, which would be lame.

MSU is best matchup for ND. Paper tiger built on running the ball, not particularly good at anything. Oklahoma State is the next best matchup — well coached team but devoid of NFL talent.

Really, all I care about is being in the Fiesta. That’s a good bowl on New Years Day.

Oklahoma State would have the best defense of that bunch though by far and I'd worry about our offense being able to move the ball on them consistently. Shapen was carving them up in the first half, but he was playing out of his mind. Placing basically every ball perfectly. After halftime OKST clamped down and Baylor totally sputtered. Wouldn't be as big of a deal is their offense looked as bad as it did today, but I think not having any run support with Warren out is what really exposed Sanders.

 

[tko]

While the stars did not align for a playoff spot, the energy and direction established this week with Freeman being named, along with little staff attrition, puts us in an awesome spot. These boys are angry about Kelly’s snubbing and subsequent trashing and are ready to get after whatever opponent we face. I’m pumped to see how the rest of the month goes with recruits as well. Let’s cap off this year the right way!!!!!

 

[MacIrish75]

Pitt has the best QB and best offense which is why ND would be most likely to lose that game. They’d also be the most lowly ranked team, in the worst game, which would be lame.

MSU is best matchup for ND. Paper tiger built on running the ball, not particularly good at anything. Oklahoma State is the next best matchup — well coached team but devoid of NFL talent.

Really, all I care about is being in the Fiesta. That’s a good bowl on New Years Day.

I don’t care how good Kenny Pickett and Pitt may be, my brain won’t be able to get around to seeing us playing them in a major bowl game as opposed to a 35 degree Saturday afternoon in October, where we hang onto beat them 23-19.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

We will most likely be favored in any scenario.

Something to ponder: ND has been favored THREE times in their last TWENTY bowl games.


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[stpeteirish]

Can’t handicap the bowl matchup until you know who’s opting out

 

[stpeteirish]

Reports are we will be playing Okie St in the Fiesta. They will be a notch higher in the final rankings than Mich St and the Fiesta is above the Peach in the pecking order for "at large". Baylor goes to Sugar as Big 12 champ.

 

[NDRock]

We will most likely be favored in any scenario.

Something to ponder: ND has been favored THREE times in their last TWENTY bowl games.


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Off the top of my head. Sun bowl (Hawaii), Iowa state game, and Miami game?

 

[phork]

Reports are we will be playing Okie St in the Fiesta. They will be a notch higher in the final rankings than Mich St and the Fiesta is above the Peach in the pecking order for "at large". Baylor goes to Sugar as Big 12 champ.

Reports from who? Jerry Palm and ESPN have us in rhe Peach vs Pitt.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Off the top of my head. Sun bowl (Hawaii), Iowa state game, and Miami game?

Miami was favored by 3, other two are correct.

Pinstripe vs Rutgers (-15.5)

ISU was -3.5, Hawaii -1.5


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[IrishLax]

Reports from who? Jerry Palm and ESPN have us in rhe Peach vs Pitt.

I don’t understand the “Peach Bowl versus Pitt” projections. Unless things have changed drastically since the last time ND was sent to the Fiesta in this cycle of bowls (2015 vs Ohio State), the Fiesta Bowl is the better bowl and gets the top two teams. I keep seeing suggestions that have us playing a Pitt team in what looks like a 5 versus ~12 matchup which makes no sense unless they’re intentionally trying to screw us.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I don’t understand the “Peach Bowl versus Pitt” projections. Unless things have changed drastically since the last time ND was sent to the Fiesta in this cycle of bowls (2015 vs Ohio State), the Fiesta Bowl is the better bowl and gets the top two teams. I keep seeing suggestions that have us playing a Pitt team in what looks like a 5 versus ~12 matchup which makes no sense unless they’re intentionally trying to screw us.

I THINK that in 2015 the bowls were getting to choose but now the committee does it all themselves. The criteria are here (scroll to the bottom and select #10):

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/s...-protocol.aspx

Which provides very little guidance beyond geography.

 

[CoachB]

Kinda funny reading the UM message board and seeing how scared they are of Bama and UGA. They are all saying they deserve to be #1 and to be playing Cincinnati in the playoffs.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

How can you be #5 and play Pitt in the Peach bowl? Big letdown if true.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Kinda funny reading the UM message board and seeing how scared they are of Bama and UGA. They are all saying they deserve to be #1 and to be playing Cincinnati in the playoffs.

Both Cincinnati and Michigan are going to be pretty big underdogs to the SEC. Michigan will have better odds for sure but I wouldn't bet on them upsetting either of them.

 

[Riddickulous]

Kinda funny reading the UM message board and seeing how scared they are of Bama and UGA. They are all saying they deserve to be #1 and to be playing Cincinnati in the playoffs.

I'd be doing the same thing if ND were in that position. A playoff win would go a long way.

 

[Trait Expectations]

Kinda funny reading the UM message board and seeing how scared they are of Bama and UGA. They are all saying they deserve to be #1 and to be playing Cincinnati in the playoffs.

How the hell do they deserve to be #1? Their best win is what....Iowa? Wisconsin? Bama just dismantled #1 Georgia.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I think in order of most likely ND win to least it would go...

MSU > OKSU > Pitt

Assuming the Oklahoma State RB is still out. If he'll be healthy then I'd flip them and Pitt.

I don't really care who we play as long as we win and get the Freeman era off on the right foot. No one gives a shit about any of these bowls and a win over any one of these teams doesn't move the needle more than another.

If it's Pitt - it will be the Peach Bowl.

 

[Riddickulous]

How the hell do they deserve to be #1? Their best win is what....Iowa? Wisconsin? Bama just dismantled #1 Georgia.

Their last two wins are over ranked teams by a combined score of 84-30.

 

[CoachB]

SIAP, what is the criteria for choosing bowl games? Why would it be Fiesta over Peach, or vice versa?

 

[NDRock]

Miami was favored by 3, other two are correct.

Pinstripe vs Rutgers (-15.5)

ISU was -3.5, Hawaii -1.5


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The Miami game was great. As soon as they came out of the locker room I knew it was over. Those boys wanted no part of the cold that day.

 

[stpeteirish]

Reports from who? Jerry Palm and ESPN have us in the Peach vs Pitt.

Stu Mandel from the Athletic. I see Palm (who is usually right) has us in the Peach and MSU in the Fiesta. Doesn't make sense as its been reported that the Fiesta has first pick of the "at large" teams. MSU will not be ranked above us and I'm unable to find a metric that makes them a more attractive choice than ND.

But we'll see. Palm might be right. Or Mandel might be right.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

SIAP, what is the criteria for choosing bowl games? Why would it be Fiesta over Peach, or vice versa?

1. The committee shall create the best matchups in these bowl games in light of the following considerations. None of these considerations shall affect the ranking of teams. Also, none of these considerations will be controlling in determining the assignment of teams to available bowl games.
   • The committee will use geography as a consideration in the pairing of teams and assigning them to available bowl games.
   • The committee will attempt to avoid regular‐season rematches when assigning teams to bowls.
   • To benefit fans and student‐athletes, the committee will attempt to avoid assigning a team, or conference, or the highest‐ranked champion of a non‐contract conference, to the same bowl game repeatedly.
   • The committee will consider regular‐season head‐to‐head results when assigning teams to bowls.
   • The committee will consider conference championships when assigning teams to bowls.

I'm guessing the ACC champ heads to the Peach Bowl due to the fact it's in the ACC's footprint.

I wonder how the committee will handle the fact that ND and MSU are long time rivals who haven't played lately. Does that make the matchup more or less likely? I have no idea.

Also, before this weekend Oregon was one spot ahead of MSU. Oregon got folded in half by Utah but usually the committee avoids dropping teams for losing in their CCGs. So if Oregon gets the third at-large bid you would figure they're headed to the Fiesta. Now that I think about it, I would love for a matchup with Oregon.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Jan. 1	Sugar New Orleans	SEC vs. Big 12	Ole Miss vs. Baylor
Jan. 1	Rose Pasadena, Calif.	Big Ten vs. Pac-12	Ohio State vs. Utah
Jan. 1	Fiesta Glendale, Ariz.	At-large vs. At-large	Michigan State vs. Oklahoma State
Dec. 30	Peach Atlanta	At-large vs. At-large	Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

 

[IrishLax]

MSU is by far the softest team on paper. Horrible passing defense, one trick pony on offense. Oklahoma State plays good team defense but you take it with a grain of salt because it's the Big 12 and everyone plays finesse offense. Pitt plays good offense with the best QB.

Pitt in the Peach Bowl would be a slap in the face to this team. Fiesta is a more prestigious game on New Years Day, and it would be "matchmaking" nonsense by the biased committee to put ND versus the lowest ranked ACC team that we see all of the time in the Peach Bowl.

 

[Riddickulous]

I wonder how opt outs would effect MSU or PItt. Would Walker opt out of the bowl? Would Pickett?

 

[Irish2155]

I hope it is not the Peach Bowl. Would rather play on New Years Day opposed to a Thursday night. Plus, as other's have noted, we play Pitt and MSU all the time. Give me Okie St. please.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

If no changes are made to the 4 team playoff model, it appears ND will need an undefeated regular season most years for inclusion.

With NY6 becoming less prestigious, ND needs to reconsider yearly goals for the program. Rivalry trophies and archaic bowl trophies are fun to talk about I guess.