2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GoIrish41]

That's what I'm talking about. If a pollster calls a Trump supporter and says "who would you vote for in a race between Paul Ryan and Hillary Clinton," the Trump supporter is going to be like "well that means those a-holes in the ESTABLISHMENT robbed Trump at the convention," and he answers "Clinton".

Wouldn't the Bernie supporters do the same thing, though? Yet, Hillary still beats Ryan in the poll.

 

[woolybug25]

That's what I'm talking about. If a pollster calls a Trump supporter and says "who would you vote for in a race between Paul Ryan and Hillary Clinton," the Trump supporter is going to be like "well that means those a-holes in the ESTABLISHMENT robbed Trump at the convention," and he answers "Clinton".

You are literally pulling that out of your ass. There is no way to know what the telephone pollers thought when making their choice.

I doubt most Trump supporters would be able to put that together, but even if they could, I don't think it is the likely scenario that they would vote for an establishment candidate in Hillary either. It's an argument that isn't supported in any fact.

 

[wizards8507]

Wouldn't the Bernie supporters do the same thing, though? Yet, Hillary still beats Ryan in the poll.

No. Bernie is losing the delegate battle so there's no notion that he'd be "robbed" if not the nominee. Trump supporters aren't the smartest people on the planet and the notion that a plurality is different than a majority is lost on them.

You are literally pulling that out of your ass. There is no way to know what the telephone pollers thought when making their choice.

Of course. I'm saying I believe the polls are inaccurate and I explained my theory as to why. There's no way to know unless that scenario comes to pass.

I doubt most Trump supporters would be able to put that together, but even if they could, I don't think it is the likely scenario that they would vote for an establishment candidate in Hillary either. It's an argument that isn't supported in any fact.

I'm not suggesting they'd actually vote for Hillary. I'm saying they'd tell a POLLSTER that they'd vote for Hillary simply because the outrage that Paul Ryan could possibly be the nominee would be more palpable.

 

[woolybug25]

No. Bernie is losing the delegate battle so there's no notion that he'd be "robbed" if not the nominee. Trump supporters aren't the smartest people on the planet and the notion that a plurality is different than a majority is lost on them.

Bernie supporters think the system is rigged too. Where are you getting this from? haha

 

[wizards8507]

Bernie supporters think the system is rigged too. Where are you getting this from? haha

Sanders has 42% of the popular vote and 46% of the pledged delegates. "The system" is actually working in his favor.

Bernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears | FiveThirtyEight

 

[GoIrish41]

No. Bernie is losing the delegate battle so there's no notion that he'd be "robbed" if not the nominee. Trump supporters aren't the smartest people on the planet and the notion that a plurality is different than a majority is lost on them.

Poll: 1-in-4 Bernie Sanders supporters won't vote for Hillary Clinton - POLITICO

 

[woolybug25]

Sanders has 42% of the popular vote and 46% of the pledged delegates. "The system" is actually working in his favor.

Bernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears | FiveThirtyEight

I didn't say that he was, I said they feel like he is getting cheated. Just like Trump. '

Trump supporters think he is getting cheated even if he doesn't win the required amount of delegates to win outright, and Bernie supporters think they are being cheated by SuperPAC's and unfair voting. They are probably both wrong, but that doesn't mean that it isn't what they think.

Which means your original assumption is flawed.

 

[kmoose]

How are these our best options?

Well, in 1920, the 19th Amendment was added to the Constitution of the United States.........

 

[wizards8507]

I didn't say that he was, I said they feel like he is getting cheated. Just like Trump.

Trump supporters think he is getting cheated even if he doesn't win the required amount of delegates to win outright, and Bernie supporters think they are being cheated by SuperPAC's and unfair voting. They are probably both wrong, but that doesn't mean that it isn't what they think.

Which means your original assumption is flawed.

I agree that both Trump and Sanders supporters are wrong, but the analogy is imbalanced. For one, there are only two Democrat candidates. One or the other will have a majority of the delegates on the first ballot. Even if the Sanders people view that as being "cheated," it's far less "egregious" than the Republican nomination going to Paul Ryan who, as others pointed out, isn't even running. The other imbalance is that almost all of the Republicans would be pissed at a Paul Ryan nomination, not just half. Both Trump people and Cruz people would be pissed at a Paul Ryan nominee, while only Bernie Sanders people would be pissed at a Hillary Clinton nomination.

 

[Legacy]

I didn't say that he was, I said they feel like he is getting cheated. Just like Trump. '

Trump supporters think he is getting cheated even if he doesn't win the required amount of delegates to win outright, and Bernie supporters think they are being cheated by SuperPAC's and unfair voting. They are probably both wrong, but that doesn't mean that it isn't what they think.

Which means your original assumption is flawed.

Why not four parties with Trump, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders representing clear choices? Dump the Electoral College. The popular vote total does not determine who is President anyway.

 

[phgreek]

Poll: 1-in-4 Bernie Sanders supporters won't vote for Hillary Clinton - POLITICO

...liking me some Sanders and his people more every day...

 

[BleedBlueGold]

...liking me some Sanders and his people more every day...

I'm in that 25%. Already made up my mind that I won't vote for HRC. I can't stand her and wouldn't be able to support that decision if/when called into question. I know that HRC is a better choice than Trump. But I just can't support her. She's awful.

I will still vote though in order to use my voting voice towards other elections on the ballot in Indiana.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I posted this in a different thread, but this one gets more action. Figured I could throw a softball to any Trump supporters on here, considering this post just did the dirty work for them:

Things Trump has said that I agree with:

• Takes the populist stance against corruption in D.C.
• Piss poor trade deals have aided in the extraction of jobs in America.
• Big Pharm needs to be fixed, ie, open up borders to allow competition with prices.
• End carried interest loophole.
• War in Iraq was a huge mistake.*
• Calls out the corrupt media.**

*Like most Trump-stances, he's flip-flopped on this. He was originally for it. But he landed some punches at a debate when he called out Bush and anyone affiliated with how badly they botched the war. He gets points for that in my book.

**This is very ironic for me to list considering how it's worked in his favor most of the time. But imo, a lot of times, he's just trolling them because he knows he can get air time. By saying and doing a lot of the shit he does, he gets more free media coverage. That in itself proves how corrupt they are. Other than that, he hasn't really hit the core issue with the media in that they're bought and biased and rely on ratings as opposed to informing viewers. I'll give the Drumpf half-credit here.

Literally everything else that's come out of his mouth, I've been against. Either because he's flip-flopped so many times that you don't know what he actual believes, or because what he's said is bigoted and racist, or because it's bad policy, or because it lacks policy.

Noteworthy: I despise Trump, but I just listed more things in a single post than any Trump supporter on this board has listed ever. I'll rep myself. Haha. Lets be real though, the man is a total buffoon.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Merkley becomes first senator to back Sanders in White House bid | TheHill

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I'm in that 25%. Already made up my mind that I won't vote for HRC. I can't stand her and wouldn't be able to support that decision if/when called into question. I know that HRC is a better choice than Trump. But I just can't support her. She's awful.

I will still vote though in order to use my voting voice towards other elections on the ballot in Indiana.

I just can't understand this perspective. As a Bernie supporter, you don't have to like her. But sitting out the presidential race essentially equates to a vote for the republican...a republican (no matter who it is) who will nominate a Scalia-type judge for the Supreme Court. If you think money in politics is bad, I don't understand how you can do that.

 

[kmoose]

I just can't understand this perspective. As a Bernie supporter, you don't have to like her. But sitting out the presidential race essentially equates to a vote for the republican...a republican (no matter who it is) who will nominate a Scalia-type judge for the Supreme Court. If you think money in politics is bad, I don't understand how you can do that.

Are you seriously suggesting that people who are against money in politics should vote for Hillary Clinton?

How does a non-vote equate to a vote for the Republican, exactly?

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Are you seriously suggesting that people who are against money in politics should vote for Hillary Clinton?

I'm suggesting that the Supreme Court could overturn Citizens United with another moderate or liberal. That would happen with Clinton. It would not happen with any Republican.

How does a non-vote equate to a vote for the Republican, exactly?

Um...because it means the Democrat didn't get the vote. So, I guess...math...

 

[NDinL.A.]

It’s absolutely classic/hypocritical (to the highest degree) how the Donald has been crying like a little bitch and threatening lawsuits because he doesn’t know the delegate rules and he’s getting his ass kicked by Cruz on the ground.

Classic because every time things don’t go his way, he threatens lawsuits (and doesn’t go through with them lol). And incredibly hypocritical because I watched a debate just a couple of months ago in which Trump bragged about knowing the Visa B1-H laws so well that he was able to hire foreigners (instead of Americans) when, through his own admission in that debate, he shouldn’t have been able to. But he boasted that knew the rules and the loopholes so well that he was able skirt them, because that’s what he does and that’s what makes him such a success. But now someone else does it, and wipes the floor with him, and suddenly it’s unfair and the system is corrupt? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Sorry Donald, you got played because of your ignorance and your hubris. Stop whining like a bitch and accept it. You did the same thing with the Visas, and you did the same thing with the bankruptcy laws. Now that the tables are turned, everyone is out to get you and everyone is corrupt and “lawsuits are coming” LOL. What a joke.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I just can't understand this perspective. As a Bernie supporter, you don't have to like her. But sitting out the presidential race essentially equates to a vote for the republican...a republican (no matter who it is) who will nominate a Scalia-type judge for the Supreme Court. If you think money in politics is bad, I don't understand how you can do that.

I support Bernie because he's everything that Hillary is not (and he's not everything that she is).

It's my opinion that HRC is in fact a Rebublican dressed up like a Dem. Her records show her as a Center-Right to Center-Left politician. She's a neo-lib and I don't agree with her actions (damn what she says, she panders with the worst of them). Will she be as bad as Trump/Cruz? No. And your point regarding the Supreme Court is valid. Her choice would be further left than Cruz's candidate. But would she choose far enough left for it to matter? I honestly don't believe she would. She is everything that's wrong with money in politics. Why would she bother "fixing" it? I don't find her to be Left of Obama and he nominated Garland (who's views on overturning CU are questionable). What makes you think that HRC will do better? I just don't buy it.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I support Bernie because he's everything that Hillary is not (and he's not everything that she is).

It's my opinion that HRC is in fact a Rebublican dressed up like a Dem. Her records show her as a Center-Right to Center-Left politician. She's a neo-lib and I don't agree with her actions (damn what she says, she panders with the worst of them). Will she be as bad as Trump/Cruz? No. And your point regarding the Supreme Court is valid. Her choice would be further left than Cruz's candidate. But would she choose far enough left for it to matter? I honestly don't believe she would. She is everything that's wrong with money in politics. Why would she bother "fixing" it?

I agree that she's a Center-Left politician with some conservative tendencies. And, for that reason, you can certainly support Bernie with vigor. But I don't understand the desire to sit out. Cruz and Trump wouldn't just be sort of worse. They'd be horrific for things that Bernie voters support. Not just Supreme Court stuff (though that is, I believe, the biggest one), but on tax policy, entitlement programs, the ACA, foreign wars (as hawkish as Hillary is, she's no where near "see if the sand glows"), and any number of other issues.

Bernie agrees with me.
Bernie Sanders Makes Nice: ‘On Her Worst Day’ Hillary is ‘100 Times Better’ Than Any Republican | Mediaite

 

[phgreek]

I support Bernie because he's everything that Hillary is not (and he's not everything that she is).

It's my opinion that HRC is in fact a Rebublican dressed up like a Dem. Her records show her as a Center-Right to Center-Left politician. She's a neo-lib and I don't agree with her actions (damn what she says, she panders with the worst of them). Will she be as bad as Trump/Cruz? No. And your point regarding the Supreme Court is valid. Her choice would be further left than Cruz's candidate. But would she choose far enough left for it to matter? I honestly don't believe she would. She is everything that's wrong with money in politics. Why would she bother "fixing" it? I don't find her to be Left of Obama and he nominated Garland (who's views on overturning CU are questionable). What makes you think that HRC will do better? I just don't buy it.

...well and she has done worse with classified material than many who've paid dearly for their transgressions. She and all her people are hypocritical, ruling class garbage that needs to be taken to the curb. Washington DC has devolved from a hub of leadership, to a mob-style compound where the latest crime is hatched, and perpetrated. Step 1 is denial of power. Power is derived from confidence of people. So this isn't just about her being denied the presidency...it is about her and her ilk receiving a no confidence vote...the numbers need to show establishment pigs like Hillary Clinton are over. You sir, are going in the right direction.

 

[kmoose]

I'm suggesting that the Supreme Court could overturn Citizens United with another moderate or liberal. That would happen with Clinton. It would not happen with any Republican.



Um...because it means the Democrat didn't get the vote. So, I guess...math...

But neither did the Republican, so it's a push. So, I guess........... logic...

 

[IrishJayhawk]

But neither did the Republican, so it's a push. So, I guess........... logic...

If you are a Democrat and you sit out rather than voting for the Democrat, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are happy. yes, it's a one vote swing instead of a two vote swing. But it's as good as a vote for the Republican.

I don't think I'm saying anything controversial here.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I agree that she's a Center-Left politician with some conservative tendencies. And, for that reason, you can certainly support Bernie with vigor. But I don't understand the desire to sit out. Cruz and Trump wouldn't just be sort of worse. They'd be horrific for things that Bernie voters support. Not just Supreme Court stuff (though that is, I believe, the biggest one), but on tax policy, entitlement programs, the ACA, foreign wars (as hawkish as Hillary is, she's no where near "see if the sand glows"), and any number of other issues.

Bernie agrees with me.
Bernie Sanders Makes Nice: ‘On Her Worst Day’ Hillary is ‘100 Times Better’ Than Any Republican | Mediaite

I agree that HRC is way better for the US than Trump/Cruz.

But HRC is just more of the same Establishment, D.C. politics and that's what I'm against. This power hungry plutocracy, imo, has ruined this country. Decades of bad deals and legislature have lead to where we are. HRC is not the person to shake the boat....she's the captain of the boat.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I agree that HRC is way better for the US than Trump/Cruz.

But HRC is just more of the same Establishment, D.C. politics and that's what I'm against. This power hungry plutocracy, imo, has ruined this country. Decades of bad deals and legislature have lead to where we are. HRC is not the person to shake the boat....she's the captain of the boat.

Then I would still urge you to hold your nose and vote for her if she's the nominee. We have the system we have. Advocate like crazy for a new system. But, in the mean time, there is still a huge difference between the two likely candidates. That difference is worth voting for.

 

[kmoose]

If you are a Democrat and you sit out rather than voting for the Democrat, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are happy. yes, it's a one vote swing instead of a two vote swing. But it's as good as a vote for the Republican.

I don't think I'm saying anything controversial here.

It wasn't controversial to say that the world was flat, in 1216. It's not "as good as a vote for the Republicans", and voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil. It's one thing to vote for evil when you have no other option, but abstaining IS an option. But thank you for illustrating something:

Thank you for the perfect illustration of the idea that "it's not about electing the right person, it's about electing the right party".

I mean, it's not like that kind of thinking has led to the fvcked situation we are in right now or anything.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

It wasn't controversial to say that the world was flat, in 1216. It's not "as good as a vote for the Republicans", and voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil. It's one thing to vote for evil when you have no other option, but abstaining IS an option. But thank you for illustrating something:

Thank you for the perfect illustration of the idea that "it's not about electing the right person, it's about electing the right party".

I mean, it's not like that kind of thinking has led to the fvcked situation we are in right now or anything.

It's not about electing the right party. I's about electing the person who's policy positions most align with yours. Bernie supporters have way more in common with Hillary than they do either of the other two options. Bernie has said as much.

Abstaining doesn't accomplish much of anything beneficial for Bernie supporters. It is a good thing for Cruz/Trump. And, in the end, the idea that "it doesn't matter because they're all bad choices" is, for his supporters, masochistic (how's that for a lot of commas?). A Cruz or Trump presidency would be catastrophic for many of the things that Bernie supporters believe are important.

Have a good day.

 

[wizards8507]

My hot take on Paul Ryan's speech yesterday is that a brokered convention is going to Rubio.

 

[pumpdog20]

Then I would still urge you to hold your nose and vote for her if she's the nominee. We have the system we have. Advocate like crazy for a new system. But, in the mean time, there is still a huge difference between the two likely candidates. That difference is worth voting for.

Nope, he should stick to his beliefs. If he (and those like him) keep voting for what they don't like, then you keep getting what you don't like. An even better outcome is that Hillary doesn't get voted.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Then I would still urge you to hold your nose and vote for her if she's the nominee. We have the system we have. Advocate like crazy for a new system. But, in the mean time, there is still a huge difference between the two likely candidates. That difference is worth voting for.

Eh.....maybe but maybe not. My outlook is probably much more negative, but I don't agree with what you are implying.

I think part of what drives people to vote for Sanders or Trump is being pissed with the system we have. I think the realization is starting to hit people that our two party system is rigged. Barring the super delegates switching, Clinton wins. The average Joe on the street feels like he/she has no voice, since the super's are what ultimately determines who is nominated. For the Republicans, the same feelings will persist with a brokered convention. This isn't the way we were told government works in our Civics class in middle school. If we do what you say, we will go against those emotions and vote along party lines (at least the party that fits each person general preferences). In that case, what incentive to the parties have to change if people simply fall back inline and vote like you suggest?

People want the proverbial politician blood in the street. They want the political revolution that Bernie strives for. They want someone to say "fuck you" to the Republican base. I don't think those emotions subside or even remain neutral with a Cruz / Clinton battle. I think it get's worse. The parties need to change before the masses turn on them....and they will....violently if they must. It's just a matter of whether or not parties are tied into this and act before it gets ugly. I think one party will change before the other and it will take an election to convince them the need to change. Abstaining votes is one way to do this without violence.