2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Bogtrotter07]

White, blue collar Dems (the so-called Reagan Democrats) left the party in the 1980's and have never returned. Since Reagan they have either voted Republican or not voted at all. If Trump is the candidate, they may make an effort to get out and vote. But their turnout will be offset by Republicans turned off by Trump. It won't effect the Democratic vote much at all, since they haven't voted for a Democrat since Kennedy and Johnson.

The danger to the Democrats is that blacks, Hispanics, and young voters will not turn out in the same numbers they did for Obama. The election is the Democrats to win (even if Hillary is the candidate) unless Democratic voters decide to stay home on election day.

Your first paragraph is interesting, because all of the Reagan Democrats, except for the oldest, say 70 years plus, never considered themselves Republicans, but Independents. I have known quite a few, and they have consistently crossed party lines.

I think they will return to vote for the Democratic candidate, especially if it is Bernie, because they don't fall for the 'socialist propaganda' label; they know what a populist is.

As far as persons of color, and the youth, I believe they are terrified of someone like Trump being elected.

I hate to say it but I believe it is 'white man thinking' that stereotypes blacks and Hispanics into not caring who is elected. These significant minorities have been energized in the last eight years, and no one believes the Presidency is the old white man's club, anymore.

When I was young, youth spoke out, influencing the political landscape for a generation, only to cave to material things and personal comfort.

But it will be interesting to see with the youth today, they have had an entitlement, and freedom never before experienced. They are used to doing what they want, and getting their way. They also have more information available at their disposal than ever in human history.

The question is, will they take over the responsibility and actually act with empathy and compassion toward their fellow man, making the best choices this fall for their future, and the future of their descendants?

 

[phgreek]

I hope the DOJ does investigate. As far as the rest of your post see below the next quote.



I think that in the Super Tuesday primaries, and earlier, many democrats crossed over to vote against Trump, etc. For example, Ohio had their Governor on the ballot, which was a preferred alternate.

The most recent primaries seemed to lack an acceptable Republican Alternative, and show a frustration on the part of Democrats, most Independents, and some moderate Republicans to continue to deal with Donald Trump.

NDinLA hit the bulls eye in his susinct commentary on Trump's campaign. People see his hypocrisy, tired of his pedantic, petulant ramblings, and terrified at the prospect that he could actually be chief executive of this country.

As far as Republicans versus Democrats, I learned my lesson from observation early. The grass roots organizations would have to cheat vote by vote with traditional fraud. Those with the power and money do it by manipulating voting machines, or ballots, limiting access to the vote, etc.

You can see this throughout the history of the nation. Dem's in Chicago had deceased on their rolls, who often voted more than once. In the deep south the aristocratic and Northern Republican Military control established all kinds of conditions like literacy test (Sometimes in Chinese), or no access to polling booths. The way that each side has cheated, (and I am clearly not simply speaking of Republicans versus Democrats), has not change, but has directly translated due to advancement in technology!

As a completion to my point. As a youth I got a chance to get to know Thomas Ludlow Ashly, a powerful Democratic Representative from Ohio's 9th Congressional District. I mean this guy got things done as witnessed from what bacon he brought home. Until a while after he retired, every Volkswagen imported to America came through the Port of Toledo. The list of other things he accomplished is long; you have the idea.

Why do I mention this? "Lud" was a Yale graduate, a close personal friend of the Bush family, particularly HW, and a friend of other iconic conservative figures such as WF Buckley. "Lud" was the first Bonesman I met. In truth, other than some support for labor, without which he could have never been elected, Lud was really a Republican of his day in orientation and ideology. That is why when he lost in 1980 it was to a Republican.

Both candidates were saying the same thing in their campaigns, so much so that the voters couldn't distinguish between them, and the Republican, Ed Webber, was carried in with the Reagan Democratic vote. To finish this off, the anomaly of that whole political situation was complete in '82 when Webber, the first term Congressman lost badly to a politically inexperience woman, with almost no resume.

I expect that same effect as '82 against the previous wave of Republican success, followed by zero accomplishment, and bunches of bad feelings.

So am I to gather you look at Bernie absolutely curb stomping Hillary as having nothing to do with her being a criminal, and everything to do with people hating Trump. Don't get me wrong. I'm sure there is some Trump crossover....but thats change my party anger...where Hillary is just a simple screw her crooked ass. I'm going with him winning due to response to Hillary's crooked ass...

 

[BleedBlueGold]

So am I to gather you look at Bernie absolutely curb stomping Hillary as having nothing to do with her being a criminal, and everything to do with people hating Trump. Don't get me wrong. I'm sure there is some Trump crossover....but thats change my party anger...where Hillary is just a simple screw her crooked ass. I'm going with him winning due to response to Hillary's crooked ass...

Bernie has a massive following based on his principals, his authenticity, his voting record, and his policies. I'm sure he gets votes from the anti-Clinton people. But by in large, it's my opinion that Bernie's supporters are voting For Bernie and not Against Clinton, if that makes sense.

 

[phgreek]

Bernie has a massive following based on his principals, his authenticity, his voting record, and his policies. I'm sure he gets votes from the anti-Clinton people. But by in large, it's my opinion that Bernie's supporters are voting For Bernie and not Against Clinton, if that makes sense.

yea, it does...I'm just saying I think getting people to change their party (running from trump) is less likely a contributor to his resounding success (at times) than someone who looks at Hillary and says oh hell no, because they don't have to change parties to do it...

 

[irishroo]

1) 50% applies to those making over $10M per year. Although that's federal income tax only as others will be quick to point, total tax burden will end up being higher. 2) Bernie's free tuition applies to undergrad.

*And while you're not working, in order to not pay taxes, please refrain from calling the fire department, police department, using roads, public parks/beaches, and don't expect the military to fight any wars for you, schools to educate you (or your kids), or hospitals to care for you.

**I had a friend argue with me about taxes and how "39% is really high, man. That's ridiculous. I shouldn't have to pay that." Funny thing is, I know how much he makes...his effective rate after deductions is probably between 15%-20%...soooo great argument fella. The reason I bring this up is because people see Bernie's high rates but fail to comprehend that the vast majority of people will not be effected by increases. Tax rates are exceptionally low in this country. Ever since Reagan's cuts. Reaganomics do not work anymore. Trickle down does not work. It's time to increase the tax revenue and start paying for shit that benefits this country as a whole. Investing in the people, investing in the infrastructure and not lining the pockets of multi-billionaires and war mongers. Just my two cents.

Interesting look at the different candidates' tax plans here: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Bernie would cost me an additional 9-10k per year... no thanks.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Interesting look at the different candidates' tax plans here: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Bernie would cost me an additional 9-10k per year... no thanks.

The idea behind that tax calculator for each candidate is cool but this is hardly accurate. But I'll play along anyways. Even if my taxes go up the $10k this suggests. Is it subtracting out the costs of healthcare, which in my family is more than $12,000 per year? Lets say after it's said and done, my taxes Do go up. Personally, I'm ok with that because I don't vote based on my bank account. Voting and politics (for me) is about the country, not just my pocket book. So if my taxes go up, but it means tax revenues have money to pay for better infrastructure, better schools, better medical care, etc for everyone...then yeah, sign me up.

 

[IrishLax]

Interesting look at the different candidates' tax plans here: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Bernie would cost me an additional 9-10k per year... no thanks.

The difference between Cruz and Bernie for me is over $25k. I loathe Ted Cruz, but if my choice was between those two, how do I not cast a vote for that? If they both were able to put their plans in, then Bernie getting elected = me writing a check for $100k for his first term... for which I will see ZERO improvement to my status quo.

HillDog makes my taxes go up $400ish. Once again she comes through as the most pragmatic choice, even if she is dislikable... or corrupt... or a criminal... or tried to silence/smear rape victims... or...

 

[irishroo]

The idea behind that tax calculator for each candidate is cool but this is hardly accurate. But I'll play along anyways. Even if my taxes go up the $10k this suggests. Is it subtracting out the costs of healthcare, which in my family is more than $12,000 per year? Lets say after it's said and done, my taxes Do go up. Personally, I'm ok with that because I don't vote based on my bank account. Voting and politics (for me) is about the country, not just my pocket book. So if my taxes go up, but it means tax revenues have money to pay for better infrastructure, better schools, better medical care, etc for everyone...then yeah, sign me up.

This is all fine and you're obviously entitled to your opinion, but you and I have a fundamental disagreement on our approach to politics on the bolded. I absolutely vote based on my bank account - it's without a doubt my primary influence on my political choices.

 

[gkIrish]

The difference between Cruz and Bernie for me is over $25k. I loathe Ted Cruz, but if my choice was between those two, how do I not cast a vote for that? If they both were able to put their plans in, then Bernie getting elected = me writing a check for $100k for his first term... for which I will see ZERO improvement to my status quo.

HillDog makes my taxes go up $400ish. Once again she comes through as the most pragmatic choice, even if she is dislikable... or corrupt... or a criminal... or tried to silence/smear rape victims... or...

I'm in almost the same exact situation. Hate Cruz but don't think I could realistically cast a vote for Bernie if it's between those two.

If any of the candidates proposed forgiving all federal student loans I would immediately vote for them....

 

[woolybug25]

Interesting look at the different candidates' tax plans here: This simple calculator tells you how each presidential candidate's tax plan affects you - Vox

Bernie would cost me an additional 9-10k per year... no thanks.

That's a cute exercise, but it's entirely innacurate. They show my tax rate under Bernie as .5% less than what my rate was this year, but somehow calculated a $12k+ increase in taxes.

The math simply doesn't work.

2016 Tax Brackets | Tax Foundation

 

[kmoose]

The government has a yearly budget based on yearly tax revenue. I don't follow this person's logic on "paid my share, I should maintain access." Take roads/bridges for example. They require yearly maintenance: Plowing/Salt, patching, paving, cleaning, painting, mowing, bridge repair, etc. Continued use warrants continued upkeep which warrants continued tax revenue to cover the costs.

Why is this a question when it pertains to public universities? Is this currently an issue for high school students at public schools who also have a driver's license and use public roads? Primary education wasn't always free to the public. America adapted and made education a priority. Bernie is trying to push that education to a higher standard by extending free education, paid for by taxes (like it currently is), to public universities.

There is $1.2 Trillion in outstanding student loan debt that says otherwise.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

There is $1.2 Trillion in outstanding student loan debt that says otherwise.

I was referencing education K-12 that's paid for via property taxes and such.

 

[GoIrish41]

I'm in almost the same exact situation. Hate Cruz but don't think I could realistically cast a vote for Bernie if it's between those two.

If any of the candidates proposed forgiving all federal student loans I would immediately vote for them....

That is a Green Party position. Left of Bernie is where you want to be?

 

[koonja]

I'm in almost the same exact situation. Hate Cruz but don't think I could realistically cast a vote for Bernie if it's between those two.

If any of the candidates proposed forgiving all federal student loans I would immediately vote for them....

I would vote for Brick if he promised to forgive student loans.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

This is all fine and you're obviously entitled to your opinion, but you and I have a fundamental disagreement on our approach to politics on the bolded. I absolutely vote based on my bank account - it's without a doubt my primary influence on my political choices.

I don't fault those who vote based on candidate tax plans (I don't think it should be the "primary influence" but that's your prerogative). I, myself, am bothered by how irresponsible our government is with spending and the thought of giving more of my money to them to continue pissing it away on war and tax cuts to billionaires causes hesitation in my willingness to vote for someone who wants to raise my taxes. Believe me, I get it. So for me to be okay with paying higher rates, I need something in return. That something is what Bernie is suggesting, albeit with a current Congress that will undoubtedly fight him. Less war, less "welfare" for the rich in the form of tax cuts, loopholes, and subsidies, and much more focus on infrastructure to help get the employment rate up, fighting global warming and investing in cleaner energy, investing in our children and their education, more affordable healthcare, better treatment for our Vets....I mean, I could on and on with ways to focus more attention on the middle class and poor (which is literally the opposite of what our current Congress does) and in that event, higher taxes is easier for me to accept. It's how I view society. Whiskey posted an article talking about what makes a good society the other day. I enjoyed it and the first part of it falls in line with my thinking in that,

I once read a remark apocryphally attributed to either Peter Maurin or Dorothy Day, I forget which, that defined the “good society” as a society that makes it easier to be good. By that standard, we should structure our society, including our economy, in ways that make it easier for people in it to be good, to do the right thing.

What Is A Good Society? | The American Conservative

I tend to view taxes as a way to better society as a whole. I guess it's just that simple for me. The methods of going about it are difficult and debatable, because as the article mentions, we need to agree on the end game as far as what defines a good society, before we can determine the methodology in which to succeed in attaining said goal. And that seems to be where the Right and Left get hung up each time.

 

[kmoose]

I'm in almost the same exact situation. Hate Cruz but don't think I could realistically cast a vote for Bernie if it's between those two.

If any of the candidates proposed forgiving all federal student loans I would immediately vote for them....

Serious question........... why? Why is student loan debt your "absolute" issue?

 

[koonja]

Serious question........... why? Why is student loan debt your "absolute" issue?

Not him, but the otherwise disposable income I'd have if I didn't have student loans could certainly stimulate myself and the economy.

 

[gkIrish]

That is a Green Party position. Left of Bernie is where you want to be?

Serious question........... why? Why is student loan debt your "absolute" issue?

I'm not really being serious, but if you knew how much I owed you would understand why I would even say it half-jkingly.

 

[kmoose]

Not him, but the otherwise disposable income I'd have if I didn't have student loans could certainly stimulate myself and the economy.

Yeah, well think of all of the disposable income people would have to stimulate the economy if we just forgave their mortgages or car loans? That's not a valid reason to forgive debt that you willingly took on.

 

[kmoose]

I'm not really being serious, but if you knew how much I owed you would understand why I would even say it half-jkingly.

Have you tried any of these programs?

Learn More – Freedom Student Aid

 

[koonja]

Yeah, well think of all of the disposable income people would have to stimulate the economy if we just forgave their mortgages or car loans? That's not a valid reason to forgive debt that you willingly took on.

What you say is fair. But some of us didn't necessarily willingly take it on. I guess you could say we could have skipped college, but we know that's not a good idea in today's world.

I work with young people who don't know what tuition is because they never paid it, then people like me who were never given more than the $100 to register for classes every semester, and had to loan out all tuition, room and board, and pay for all expenses.

 

[gkIrish]

What you say is fair. But some of us didn't necessarily willingly take it on. I guess you could say we could have skipped college, but we know that's not a good idea in today's world.

I work with young people who don't know what tuition is because they never paid it, then people like me who were never given more than the $100 to register for classes every semester, and had to loan out all tuition, room and board, and pay for all expenses.

Yeah to add to this I "willingly" took on debt because my parents couldn't pay for college/law school for me. I was definitely in the minority amongst my peers, who received significant help from family.

So I was left with the choice of not doing what I wanted to do with my life or taking on significant debt.

 

[kmoose]

What you say is fair. But some of us didn't necessarily willingly take it on. I guess you could say we could have skipped college, but we know that's not a good idea in today's world.

I work with young people who don't know what tuition is because they never paid it, then people like me who were never given more than the $100 to register for classes every semester, and had to loan out all tuition, room and board, and pay for all expenses.

Why couldn't you have reduced your debt load by going to a community college that was significantly cheaper (presumably staying at home with mom and dad while doing so) and getting your core courses out of the way without taking on significant debt? What you are REALLY saying is, "I didn't do it the smart way, and now I have significant debt. (that's not a criticism, LOTS of people are in that category) and I want people to absolve me of my financial responsibilities now." If your payments are too high, look into the link I posted above. If you don't qualify for student loan debt relief programs, then you probably make too much. If you make too much and still find that student loans are crippling the lifestyle you want to lead, then maybe you should reconsider your expectations for your lifestyle.

 

[kmoose]

Yeah to add to this I "willingly" took on debt because my parents couldn't pay for college/law school for me. I was definitely in the minority amongst my peers, who received significant help from family.

So I was left with the choice of not doing what I wanted to do with my life or taking on significant debt.

Maybe this is your parents' fault, for not better preparing you for some realities:

Hardly ANYONE is "doing what they wanted to with their life". Most of those who are, made YUGE sacrifices to do it.

Your peers' financial situations have no bearing on your responsibility for your incurred debt.

 

[irishroo]

I don't fault those who vote based on candidate tax plans (I don't think it should be the "primary influence" but that's your prerogative). I, myself, am bothered by how irresponsible our government is with spending and the thought of giving more of my money to them to continue pissing it away on war and tax cuts to billionaires causes hesitation in my willingness to vote for someone who wants to raise my taxes. Believe me, I get it. So for me to be okay with paying higher rates, I need something in return. That something is what Bernie is suggesting, albeit with a current Congress that will undoubtedly fight him. Less war, less "welfare" for the rich in the form of tax cuts, loopholes, and subsidies, and much more focus on infrastructure to help get the employment rate up, fighting global warming and investing in cleaner energy, investing in our children and their education, more affordable healthcare, better treatment for our Vets....I mean, I could on and on with ways to focus more attention on the middle class and poor (which is literally the opposite of what our current Congress does) and in that event, higher taxes is easier for me to accept. It's how I view society. Whiskey posted an article talking about what makes a good society the other day. I enjoyed it and the first part of it falls in line with my thinking in that,



What Is A Good Society? | The American Conservative

I tend to view taxes as a way to better society as a whole. I guess it's just that simple for me. The methods of going about it are difficult and debatable, because as the article mentions, we need to agree on the end game as far as what defines a good society, before we can determine the methodology in which to succeed in attaining said goal. And that seems to be where the Right and Left get hung up each time.

I agree with you on the bolded - I don't think you'll get much argument from either side of the aisle that the tax code needs to be simplified in order to avoid, for example, situations where a guy like Mitt Romney ends up with a 14% effective tax rate - but I don't think that really encompasses what Bernie's proposing. I'm a 24 year old single dude, I do my own taxes for free on H&R Block. I'm certainly not utilizing any sort of fancy loopholes to lower my tax rate, nor would I consider myself "rich," but Bernie still wants to take an additional ~$9k out of my pocket every year. That's why I cannot and will not ever support him.

 

[ACamp1900]

Yeah to add to this I "willingly" took on debt because my parents couldn't pay for college/law school for me. I was definitely in the minority amongst my peers, who received significant help from family.

So I was left with the choice of not doing what I wanted to do with my life or taking on significant debt.

I was here also... I also went to school right during an era when higher ed. costs ballooned and the cost for my final year was significantly higher than what it was during my first year... I also wasn't eligible for some of the programs/help many of my friends took advantage of since I was a white male with married parents (who didn't make anything as already alluded to). I'm very much better off with my degrees but yeah,...

 

[woolybug25]

Yeah to add to this I "willingly" took on debt because my parents couldn't pay for college/law school for me. I was definitely in the minority amongst my peers, who received significant help from family.

So I was left with the choice of not doing what I wanted to do with my life or taking on significant debt.

But why should that debt be everyone else's burden? Joe the Plummer or Freddy the Fireman aren't asking for your money. I don't get why people think they are entitled to elite education simply because they are a citizen. I want to be rock star, but I don't feel I'm entitled to music lessons because I've been "left with the choice to pay for it or not do what I want to with my life". You wanted to go to law school and didn't have the money. So you willingly took debt to do so. You're not entitled to my money because you chose to pursue elite education.

 

[koonja]

But why should that debt be everyone else's burden? Joe the Plummer or Freddy the Fireman aren't asking for your money. I don't get why people think they are entitled to elite education simply because they are a citizen. I want to be rock star, but I don't feel I'm entitled to music lessons because I've been "left with the choice to pay for it or not do what I want to with my life". You wanted to go to law school and didn't have the money. So you willingly took debt to do so. You're not entitled to my money because you chose to pursue elite education.

I don't think anyone's saying they're entitled to anything. But if a pres candidate promised to forgive federal student loans, I'd vote the F out of him.

 

[gkIrish]

But why should that debt be everyone else's burden? Joe the Plummer or Freddy the Fireman aren't asking for your money. I don't get why people think they are entitled to elite education simply because they are a citizen. I want to be rock star, but I don't feel I'm entitled to music lessons because I've been "left with the choice to pay for it or not do what I want to with my life". You wanted to go to law school and didn't have the money. So you willingly took debt to do so. You're not entitled to my money because you chose to pursue elite education.

I don't want a handout. I'm just explaining why I had to do what I did.

I am dealing with my debt as best I can and I'm not relying at all on anyone to help me.

I don't want free healthcare. I don't want free education. I'm about as fiscally conservative as it gets.

 

[ACamp1900]

You're not entitled to my money because you chose to pursue elite education.

I agree with you and shared my experience only because it matched gk's a bit... I am curious though, why should the logic of the quoted statement change because someone chose NOT to pursue an education? Not saying you feel that way, but many clearly do.