2016 Presidential Horse Race

[BGIF]

At what point does someone just up and assassinate Trump? Like in any movie there is already someone plotting behind the scenes...

Super Tuesday II IS the Ides of March.

2060 years ago some Senators banded today to stop Julius's train.

Yon Graham Cracker has a mean and hungry look

The Donald

Small handed people have no right to lead. He couldn't hold a fasces with both hands!

Marcus Rubius

Inaudible

Physician Ben

As the only adult in the forum and the last one to balance the budget, I, a sitting Governor with proven experience to reach across the aisle and get things done, come to bury Donald not to praise him

 

[gkIrish]

IMHO the exact opposite is true. If Trump goes into a brokered convention with 35+% of the popular vote and and more elected delegates than the others and is then denied the nomination through behind the scenes maneuvering, a good percentage of his supporters will refuse to support the Republican nominee. Some will stay home on election day. Some will vote for the Democratic nominee. And some will vote for a third party candidate. Trump may even run as a third party candidate if he wins the most delegates and is then denied the nomination.

Since the past few presidential elections have been decided by a relatively small percentage, the Republicans need a large turnout. Denying Trump the nomination, that he rightfully won at the primary polls, will only help the Democrats win in November. A shift of one or two percent could decide the election.

The problem the Republicans face is an ability to compromise, even among themselves. The supporters of Bernie and Hillary will come together to support the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination. I can't say the same for the supporters of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. There is a far larger gap between tea party members and establishment Republicans than there is between moderate and progressive Democrats. Trump's supporters, especially, are angry at the establishment Republicans as much as they are angry at the establishment Democrats. If denied the fruits of their electoral support for Trump, it will be difficult to get them to support those who have denied their candidate the nomination. If Trump's ego is hurt by establishment Republican politicians, he will likely run as a third party candidate to destroy the Republican Party. He will not fade quietly into the background.

You are basically saying that we might as well live with the fact that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. Because there's no way Cruz is going to get enough delegates to keep a convention from happening. It seems to me that either (A) there will be a convention or (B) Trump will be the nominee. I don't see a path for Cruz to be the nominee without a convention. Is that fair?

If so, all your points about Trump haters not voting for a different Republican nominee still stand. And therefore I don't see how Cruz is uniquely more capable of beating Hillary than Kasich.

 

[GATTACA!]

At what point does someone just up and assassinate Trump? Like in any movie there is already someone plotting behind the scenes...

Aaaaaaaand now you're on a list somewhere.

Think so? I hated Obama in 2012 way more than I hate Hillary.

Racist

But for real that's absurd. I think you're in the minority of conservatives on that one. My wife, who knows absolutely nothing about politics who often has to ask me if we are republicans or democrats lol, looked at me today while a Hillary ad was running and asked "How the hell is anyone voting for her??".

IMHO the exact opposite is true. If Trump goes into a brokered convention with 35+% of the popular vote and and more elected delegates than the others and is then denied the nomination through behind the scenes maneuvering, a good percentage of his supporters will refuse to support the Republican nominee. Some will stay home on election day. Some will vote for the Democratic nominee. And some will vote for a third party candidate. Trump may even run as a third party candidate if he wins the most delegates and is then denied the nomination.

Since the past few presidential elections have been decided by a relatively small percentage, the Republicans need a large turnout. Denying Trump the nomination, that he rightfully won at the primary polls, will only help the Democrats win in November. A shift of one or two percent could decide the election.

The problem the Republicans face is an ability to compromise, even among themselves. The supporters of Bernie and Hillary will come together to support the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination. I can't say the same for the supporters of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich. There is a far larger gap between tea party members and establishment Republicans than there is between moderate and progressive Democrats. Trump's supporters, especially, are angry at the establishment Republicans as much as they are angry at the establishment Democrats. If denied the fruits of their electoral support for Trump, it will be difficult to get them to support those who have denied their candidate the nomination. If Trump's ego is hurt by establishment Republican politicians, he will likely run as a third party candidate to destroy the Republican Party. He will not fade quietly into the background.

I agree about the first part. Trump supporters are pissed off, that's why they are Trump supporters. Stealing the nomination from him, which is how they will see it, would push them over the edge. A good chunk either won't vote or still will vote Trump. If he gets screwed at the convention i think Trump 100% runs as an independent.

I disagree about the second part. There have been multiple stories about how Bernie might not even endorse Hillary should she win, that's how disgusted he is with the tactics she's been using against him. A LARGE chunk of his supporters hate Hillary the way some republicans hate Trump. Lots of Bernie supports wont vote for Hillary, especially the young vote. Good luck getting any of them out to the polls.

 

[woolybug25]

I honestly don't think that Republicans should support Trump if he is the nominee. If he becomes the nominee the party will end up being a joke in the general. I think they will not only lose, but also cement the legacy of being the angry racist party.

The only thing worse than that, is if Trump actually won the general. In that case, he would run our country like a tyrant. Destroy our values and pretty much destroy the image of the Republican party in the process. The only difference is that his actions wouldn't last just over an election cycle, his actions would now how long term implications for the future of our country.

But it is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, because a brokered convention would end up either with a new candidate and a third party Trump, or just with Trump, but with even more chaos.

 

[pkt77242]

Aaaaaaaand now you're on a list somewhere.



Racist

But for real that's absurd. I think you're in the minority of conservatives on that one. My wife, who knows absolutely nothing about politics who often has to ask me if we are republicans or democrats lol, looked at me today while a Hillary ad was running and asked "How the hell is anyone voting for her??".



I agree about the first part. Trump supporters are pissed off, that's why they are Trump supporters. Stealing the nomination from him, which is how they will see it, would push them over the edge. A good chunk either won't vote or still will vote Trump. If he gets screwed at the convention i think Trump 100% runs as an independent.

I disagree about the second part. There have been multiple stories about how Bernie might not even endorse Hillary should she win, that's how disgusted he is with the tactics she's been using against him. A LARGE chunk of his supporters hate Hillary the way some republicans hate Trump. Lots of Bernie supports wont vote for Hillary, especially the young vote. Good luck getting any of them out to the polls.

Yes and No. Younger people prefer Sanders, there is no question of that but in a Clinton vs Trump situation, the millennials choose Hilary at about the same rate as they choose Sanders in a Sanders vs Trump match-up.

Poll: The solution for Clinton's millennials problem is named Trump

 

[GATTACA!]

Yes and No. Younger people prefer Sanders, there is no question of that but in a Clinton vs Trump situation, the millennials choose Hilary at about the same rate as they choose Sanders in a Sanders vs Trump match-up.

Poll: The solution for Clinton's millennials problem is named Trump

Oh for sure they support Hillary over Trump, but the turnout will be terrible if it's Hillary. Sanders has even been struggling in spots to get young people out to vote. Millennials just won't vote if those are their options.

 

[drayer54]

Kasich would get slaughtered. The Republicans have tried it twice in a row and it was a miserable failure. "Squishy moderate" isn't an effective electoral strategy for two reasons.

1. The media hates Republicans and will portray even squishy moderates as right-wing extremists.

2. The base will stay home.

Last time we ran the businessman who ran on his record of being a leader and making money. The CFO guy who offered limited ideas and ran on his record of success. Worked real well. It didn't help that he was a complete stiff. However, I would argue that Kasich isn't the one who is 2012 part Deux.

 

[Buster Bluth]

This election is unlike any other because of how much Republicans hate Hillary. She will be destroyed if the candidate is not Trump or Cruz. That leaves Kasich.

I just don't see it.

Say Kasich gives you Ohio (and I hear Sherrod Brown is on the short list for VP, so the Clintons won't give it up without a fight), and let's just say for fun he somehow takes Pennsylvania, and even New Hampshire where he did so well in the primary. And let's say the GOP takes back Virginia too, for shits and giggles. Even with all of that, they still lose.

Kasich hasn't done well in the south, do the Clinton's snag Arkansas? Do they pick a Virginia or Colorado VP to solidify one of those states?

 

[drayer54]

I disagree. People have a say in who they vote into office. Said candidates are supposed to represent the people. In it's current state, it seems far more politicians represent their donors. Hence the need to remove money from politics. See Americans want gun law reform vs NRA lobbyists in DC. Clearly the opposite of democracy, and yet mostly based on money.

The NRA is strong because of its massive membership of Americans like me, who give money (like me), and vote (like me). If it weren't for its devoted membership, it wouldn't have money nor power.
This idea that all of the country is clinged to their chair to take guns away is ludicrous. Nothing like a party that is actively trying to rob citizens of their freedom to motivate the gun lobby.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/4269/text

 

[calvegas04]

I wouldn't mind Rubio being on the ticket, but Cruz and Hillary no thank you. I would vote Trump over Hillary. As far as Bernie voters go I don't see them going out in force to vote for Hillary

 

[Legacy]

Your taxes have (almost) never been so low, Donald

Your taxes have (almost) never been so low, Donald

and you want them lower? (to 25%)

GOP Debate: The weaknesses and chutzpah in Trump's tax plans

Just to begin, Trump’s proposals are wildly reckless as fiscal policy. According to the Tax Policy Center, a joint enterprise of the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute, Trump’s tax plan would gut federal revenues by $9.8 trillion over 10 years. In 2020, his plan would reduce personal income tax revenues by $695 billion or more than 36 percent, and gut corporate income tax revenues by $196 billion or 50 percent. All told, the revenue losses under Trump’s plan in 2020 come to $915 billion, equal to all defense spending projected for that year ($570 billion), plus 44 percent of all Social Security retirement benefits in 2020 ($793 billion). If Trump wants to finance his tax plans by borrowing instead of cutting spending, he should know that such a large, additional burden on credit markets would push up interest rates and slow growth, and likely trigger a U.S. debt crisis.

Trump: "I love the poorly educated."

 

[pkt77242]

The NRA is strong because of its massive membership of Americans like me, who give money (like me), and vote (like me). If it weren't for its devoted membership, it wouldn't have money nor power.
This idea that all of the country is clinged to their chair to take guns away is ludicrous. Nothing like a party that is actively trying to rob citizens of their freedom to motivate the gun lobby.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/4269/text

There is broad support for certain measures such as universal background checks (something like 85-90% depending on the survey) but it is a non-starter because of the gun lobby. That is an example of the NRA (and other gun groups) preventing broadly supported measures.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The NRA is strong because of its massive membership of Americans like me, who give money (like me), and vote (like me). If it weren't for its devoted membership, it wouldn't have money nor power.
This idea that all of the country is clinged to their chair to take guns away is ludicrous. Nothing like a party that is actively trying to rob citizens of their freedom to motivate the gun lobby.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/4269/text

Not what I was suggesting regarding the NRA. There is a legitimate complaint amongst its members that the values of said members aren't reflected by the NRA elites. There was a poll a while back that showed something like 90% of the country wanted stricter gun laws and that included republicans and NRA members. Yet when it came time to legislate, congress batted that shit down and when it was looked into, to no ones surprise, the NRA lobbyists backed almost every single representative who voted. Thats my example of money and power ruling the legislation instead of what the overwhelming majority of Americans wanted. This isn't a "strip everyone of their guns" bill. It was simply "let's take away some loopholes." See obama's EO once congress failed to deliver.

 

[gkIrish]

I just don't see it.

Say Kasich gives you Ohio (and I hear Sherrod Brown is on the short list for VP, so the Clintons won't give it up without a fight), and let's just say for fun he somehow takes Pennsylvania, and even New Hampshire where he did so well in the primary. And let's say the GOP takes back Virginia too, for shits and giggles. Even with all of that, they still lose.

Kasich hasn't done well in the south, do the Clinton's snag Arkansas? Do they pick a Virginia or Colorado VP to solidify one of those states?

You aren't even considering who Kasich could pick as his VP. Say it's Cruz. That would help lock up the South.

Kasich has a 17.6% average lead over Hillary in polls and as high as 21% in one poll.

 

[Grahambo]

At what point does someone just up and assassinate Trump? Like in any movie there is already someone plotting behind the scenes...

We're on to you.

 

[Grahambo]

When are we gonna have the Irish Envy election?

 

[GoIrish41]

When are we gonna have the Irish Envy election?

When there are two nominees ... so maybe after tonight.

 

[calvegas04]

Rubio just dropped out of the Race

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I'll say it again I don't want Trump as the nominee and I don't like his history with the Clintons. But shouldn't Hillary supporters be just as concerned about the Clintons' past with the Donald?

 

[BGIF]

Kasich Wins Ohio

Kasich Wins Ohio

called by CNN

19% reported
kasich 43.3%
trump 34.4%
cruz 14.6%

 

[irishfan]

Rubio just dropped out of the Race

I thought he gave a great speech personally.

 

[BGIF]

FL 99 Delegates To Trump

FL 99 Delegates To Trump

89% Reported
trump 45.7%
rubio 27.0%
cruz 17.0%
Kasich 6.8


Trump won ALL Education and Income Groups in Exit Poll.

75% of the primary voters were Republican, Trump won the largest group 47%.

22% were Independenhts, Trump won the largest group 44%.

 

[BGIF]

FL

FL

Trump is not the conservative candidate but of the 31% who identified themselves as very conservative voters Trump won the largest group 48% to Cruz's 25%.

39% identified themselves as somewhat conservative Trump won with 48% to Rubio's 31%

26% identified themselves as moderate Trump won with 43% to Rubio's 26%

 

[BGIF]

NC GOP Close

NC GOP Close

39% IN

Trump 40%
Cruz 38
Kasich 13
Rubio 8

Trump has about a 19K lead.

 

[BGIF]

MO GOP Close in Early Reporting

MO GOP Close in Early Reporting

4% IN

Trump 40%
Cruz 33
Kasich 11
Rubio 11


Trump lead about 2,700

 

[BGIF]

Hillary Rolling

Hillary Rolling

FL, NC, OH in the win column and leads in the early returns from IL and MO

 

[loomis41973]

This election is unlike any other because of how much Republicans hate Hillary. She will be destroyed if the candidate is not Trump or Cruz. That leaves Kasich.

Absolutely wrong.

 

[drayer54]

Absolutely wrong.

Trumps bs can't even take a majority of the party. Being painted as a bigot for months who hosts a traveling Jerry Springer show won't win an election. Kasich is the last hope.

 

[connor_in]

FL, NC, OH in the win column and leads in the early returns from IL and MO

 

[loomis41973]

Trumps bs can't even take a majority of the party. Being painted as a bigot for months who hosts a traveling Jerry Springer show won't win an election. Kasich is the last hope.

If Kasich is the last hope you may as well award it to Clinton then. He won't beat either Trump or Cruz. Guy won his own state and acts like he's doing something....laughable.