2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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connor_in

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I disagree with this. While the big failure of the Bush presidency was the Iraq War (no argument there), the Great Recession traces back to Clinton Era policies. That was a bubble that was going to pop regardless of what party was in the White House. I don't blame Bush for that one.

Also, let's not discount Obama's role in Congressional failures. If Obama wasn't so divisive, he would be able to implement bipartisan policies and work with both sides. Presidents should unite, not divide.

Clearly you understand nothing about politics. When R's are in power, it is incumbent on them to give ground on their principles/objectives to D's in the interest of working together for the betterment of America. When D's are in power, it is incumbent on R's to give ground on their principles/objectives to D's in the interest of working together for the betterment of America.
 
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Cackalacky

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You're completely misrepresenting the nuances of various "conservative" ideologies. The Tea Party is not a more-right-wing version of Bush's cowboy conservatism. That's not the case at all. The Tea Party was anti-Bush just as much as they were anti-Obama. Their beef is not with the left-right trajectory of American politics, but with the up-down trajectory.

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Also, it was Bill Clinton that created the subprime mortgage crisis. The Community Reinvestment Act basically said "you're a racist if you don't issue mortgages to people who can't afford them." Plus, Fed policies of artificially low interest rates meant that risk was ridiculously under-measured in the market.


Please stop. The Tea Party is about federalism and liberty. I don't know if you're intentionally trying to perpetuate falsehoods, or if you're a true believer about some caricature lie you've been told.


Come on. I absolutely can't stand Donald Trump but, of the two, Hillary is the one with American blood on her hands.

OMG.....I don't even have time to debunk this ish....
 
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Cackalacky

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I disagree with this. While the big failure of the Bush presidency was the Iraq War (no argument there), the Great Recession traces back to Clinton Era policies. That was a bubble that was going to pop regardless of what party was in the White House. I don't blame Bush for that one.

Also, let's not discount Obama's role in Congressional failures. If Obama wasn't so divisive, he would be able to implement bipartisan policies and work with both sides. Presidents should unite, not divide.

Yeah, that line of thinking infuriates me. Whenever they talk about "reaching across the aisle" and "working with both sides," what they actually mean is "conservatives cave on their principles to implement left-wing policies."

Obama was divisive???? For real???? Regardless of your fondness of him he was not divisive. The Republicans have been divisive. His entire campaign was about change. Changing the scrap pile of shit Bush left behind. From Day 1 the Republican strategy has been to block, dismantle, obscure, or otherwise undo anything Obama planned to do or was able to do at all. These two posts are rich....and totally a representation of CLINICAL PROJECTION.
 

wizards8507

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Obama was divisive???? For real???? Regardless of your fondness of him he was not divisive. The Republicans have been divisive. His entire campaign was about change. Changing the scrap pile of shit Bush left behind. From Day 1 the Republican strategy has been to block, dismantle, obscure, or otherwise undo anything Obama planned to do or was able to do at all. These two posts are rich....and totally a representation of CLINICAL PROJECTION.
Obama most polarizing president in modern history - CNNPolitics.com

Yeah, he campaigned on "hope and change" bullshit, but that's not how he governed.

Obama: I will use my pen and phone to take on Congress - CBS News

Barack Obama’s “Enemies” UPDATED | TIME.com

Obama: GOP Wants "Dirtier Air, Dirtier Water, Less People With Health Insurance" | RealClearPolitics
 
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GoIrish41

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Yeah, that line of thinking infuriates me. Whenever they talk about "reaching across the aisle" and "working with both sides," what they actually mean is "conservatives cave on their principles to implement left-wing policies."

The GOP made a public display of their intentions to obstruct Obama from the beginning ("Our No. 1 priority is to ensure Obama is a one-term president"). They systematically carried out that plan throughout the Obama administration -- not voting on presidential appointments (that latest of which is their comically stupid idea that they won't confirm an appointment to the Supreme Court, period). Obama tried to reach across the aisle. GOP got their way on almost all of their manufactured crisis' over debt ceilings. Boener bragged in one of those instances, ", I got 99% of everything I wanted" from the negotiations. In subsequent budget fights, Obama offered a 10-1 tradeoff for political spending cuts, vs. tax cuts, and was roundly rejected by Republican leadership who wanted it all or nothing. It is beyond absurd to suggest that he didn't attempt to bring Republicans into the fold and to ignore the fact that they broadcast that they had no intention of working with him on anything. Several of their members described "compromise" as a dirty word, and anyone who expressed any inkling of working with Obama did so over the real threat of being primaried. This is to say nothing of the 50+ times they attempted to dismantle Obamacare.
 

tussin

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Obama was divisive???? For real???? Regardless of your fondness of him he was not divisive. The Republicans have been divisive. His entire campaign was about change. Changing the scrap pile of shit Bush left behind. From Day 1 the Republican strategy has been to block, dismantle, obscure, or otherwise undo anything Obama planned to do or was able to do at all. These two posts are rich....and totally a representation of CLINICAL PROJECTION.

Not sure how anyone can argue with a straight face that Obama is NOT divisive. Pretty comical.
 

connor_in

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Obama was divisive???? For real???? Regardless of your fondness of him he was not divisive. The Republicans have been divisive. His entire campaign was about change. Changing the scrap pile of shit Bush left behind. From Day 1 the Republican strategy has been to block, dismantle, obscure, or otherwise undo anything Obama planned to do or was able to do at all. These two posts are rich....and totally a representation of CLINICAL PROJECTION.

Yeah! You guys are soooo messed up! Obama/The Democrats (tm) have been the most inclusive/compromising/reaching across the aisle president/party ever during this current administration.
 

ACamp1900

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Obama was not divisive................... seriously?
 

wizards8507

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The GOP made a public display of their intentions to obstruct Obama from the beginning ("Our No. 1 priority is to ensure Obama is a one-term president").
That's what you do when someone tries to do something that you believe is harmful. You try and prevent him from doing it. If someone wanted to punch your wife in the face ten times, you wouldn't compromise with him and agree that it would be okay if he only punched her in the face five times. Trying to stop a thing that you believe is harmful is a good thing. Now you can argue the merits of whether Obama's policies actually are harmful, but a politician who believes Obama is hurting the country is doing the right thing in trying to prevent him from doing so.

And what's with this bullshit that the President is the sole authority on anything? The statement "Obama has done nothing to implement Republican policies" is just as true as "Congress has done nothing to implement Obama policies". It's not a one-way street. The Constitution was written so that, if the President and Congress disagree, nothing gets done. That's how it's supposed to be. It's a good thing. It helps (though isn't perfect) ensure that only consensus polices get implemented.

If Trump is elected and decides he wants to cut taxes for people making over $1 million to 2% per year, I don't expect we'll see you bitching about how the "obstructionist" Democrats wont' let Trump do what he wants.
 
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pkt77242

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I disagree with this. While the big failure of the Bush presidency was the Iraq War (no argument there), the Great Recession traces back to Clinton Era policies. That was a bubble that was going to pop regardless of what party was in the White House. I don't blame Bush for that one.

Also, let's not discount Obama's role in Congressional failures. If Obama wasn't so divisive, he would be able to implement bipartisan policies and work with both sides. Presidents should unite, not divide.

Huh? Not really. While there is no doubt that the CRA was a portion of the problem it was by no means the majority of the problem. That is a lie (well partial lie) sold to us by "free market" people and the big banks. Banks acting to create extra profit, ratings agencies not doing their job, the derivative markets basically being unregulated, leverage rules for a few investment companies, etc., etc. Oddly the CRA loans during the Clinton administration weren't the risky ones, it it once Bush came into office and relaxed the CRA standards and oversight (and even allowed banks to replace atms with mortgage loans, to show that they were serving the community). Anyways the point is that to just simply blame the CRA is both factually wrong and a lie that has been sold to the American people.
 

pkt77242

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Obama was not divisive................... seriously?

Not sure how anyone can argue with a straight face that Obama is NOT divisive. Pretty comical.

I don't think it is a question of is Obama divisive now (he is) but was he originally.
I look at it this way if someone walks up and punches you in the face and then you punch them back are you aggressive? I would say no.

Similar with Obama, he became divisive but mostly due to the obstructionism of Republicans. I don't believe that he was originally divisive but after the Republicans time after time refused to work with him (and were divisive themselves) then yes he did become that way.
 

wizards8507

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Huh? Not really. While there is no doubt that the CRA was a portion of the problem it was by no means the majority of the problem. That is a lie (well partial lie) sold to us by "free market" people and the big banks. Banks acting to create extra profit, ratings agencies not doing their job, the derivative markets basically being unregulated, leverage rules for a few investment companies, etc., etc. Oddly the CRA loans during the Clinton administration weren't the risky ones, it it once Bush came into office and relaxed the CRA standards and oversight (and even allowed banks to replace atms with mortgage loans, to show that they were serving the community). Anyways the point is that to just simply blame the CRA is both factually wrong and a lie that has been sold to the American people.
Yes, banks like profit. Banks also dislike risk. Interest rates (the price of money) are the magical melting of the two. When interest rates are allowed to accurately measure risk, these markets regulate themselves. "Cheap money" from artificially low rates encourage bubbles, and all bubbles eventually burst.

The Threat of Bubbles, Not Inflation, Should Guide Fed Policy - The New Yorker

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d0nERTFo-Sk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

RDU Irish

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Under federalism shouldn't libertarians and such actually support a city's ability to govern in that manner though?

If he ran we'd actually see the size of pop become a national issue, which might be the most embarrassing point in an embarrassing campaign season.

But if it's Clinton vs Trump I'm Bloomberg all the way. If he doesn't run I think the Clinton Triangulation Strangulation wins my vote if only because the GOP is not mature enough at the moment to select Supreme Court justices.

IF he were to take that stand I would respect it, we all know politicians of this stripe are the exception and not the rule. However, I am not aware that Bloomberg and federalism have ever been used in the same sentence until this post.
 

connor_in

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I don't think it is a question of is Obama divisive now (he is) but was he originally.
I look at it this way if someone walks up and punches you in the face and then you punch them back are you aggressive? I would say no.

Similar with Obama, he became divisive but mostly due to the obstructionism of Republicans. I don't believe that he was originally divisive but after the Republicans time after time refused to work with him (and were divisive themselves) then yes he did become that way.

Well that is your opinion and that is fine, but it is merely equal to other people's opinions who disagree with you.
 

RDU Irish

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Seriously though, just think about what would happen to the Coke brother's stock.

Seriously though, it is the Koch brothers who run Koch Industries one of the largest private conglomerates in the world, a conglomerate they largely built themselves. Coca Cola is kind of a completely different thing. I would not put it past liberals to blame America's obesity epidemic on the Koch brothers though, they like to blame them for pretty much everything.
 

GoIrish41

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That's what you do when someone tries to do something that you believe is harmful. You try and prevent him from doing it. If someone wanted to punch your wife in the face ten times, you wouldn't compromise with him and agree that it would be okay if he only punched her in the face five times. Trying to stop a thing that you believe is harmful is a good thing. Now you can argue the merits of whether Obama's policies actually are harmful, but a politician who believes Obama is hurting the country is doing the right thing in trying to prevent him from doing so.

And what's with this bullshit that the President is the sole authority on anything? The statement "Obama has done nothing to implement Republican policies" is just as true as "Congress has done nothing to implement Obama policies". It's not a one-way street. The Constitution was written so that, if the President and Congress disagree, nothing gets done. That's how it's supposed to be. It's a good thing. It helps (though isn't perfect) ensure that only consensus polices get implemented.

If Trump is elected and decides he wants to cut taxes for people making over $1 million to 2% per year, I don't expect we'll see you bitching about how the "obstructionist" Democrats wont' let Trump do what he wants.

If that is "what you do" when you don't get your way, then nothing gets done -- for example the past five years in the U.S. Congress. Politics is about compromise, seeking common ground -- not obstruction. You seriously think that the record number of appointments that Obama has made only to be blocked in Congress were all going to do some sort of irreparable harm to the country? The sheer volume of unprecedented obstruction should provide ample evidence that there was no interest in welcoming the president to reach across the aisle. If you are suggesting that everything proposed by the president and blocked was somehow the worst thing that could ever happen, then I'd be more inclined to give your position credence. But we both know that is not the case. It was all about executing a plan that GOP leadership stupidly made a matter of public record.
 

wizards8507

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If that is "what you do" when you don't get your way, then nothing gets done...
Again, that's why we have a Constitution with separation of powers. Things only get done if they're consensus things.

...for example the past five years in the U.S. Congress. Politics is about compromise, seeking common ground -- not obstruction. You seriously think that the record number of appointments that Obama has made only to be blocked in Congress were all going to do some sort of irreparable harm to the country? The sheer volume of unprecedented obstruction should provide ample evidence that there was no interest in welcoming the president to reach across the aisle. If you are suggesting that everything proposed by the president and blocked was somehow the worst thing that could ever happen, then I'd be more inclined to give your position credence. But we both know that is not the case. It was all about executing a plan that GOP leadership stupidly made a matter of public record.
You're still harping on this concept that the President is the boss and it's up to Congress to do whatever he wants or otherwise be labeled "obstructionist." I could make the exact same argument you're making about Obama obstructing the Congress' agenda. They're equal branches of government. The President is not in charge. His wants and needs are no more important than those of Congress (see also: SCOTUS nomination).
 

pkt77242

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Yes, banks like profit. Banks also dislike risk. Interest rates (the price of money) are the magical melting of the two. When interest rates are allowed to accurately measure risk, these markets regulate themselves. "Cheap money" from artificially low rates encourage bubbles, and all bubbles eventually burst.

The Threat of Bubbles, Not Inflation, Should Guide Fed Policy - The New Yorker

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d0nERTFo-Sk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Bullshit. Banks during the mid 2000's took amazing amounts of risk on their own without being pushed by the government. Partly because bonuses were based on short term goals not long term, partly to chase profits to make investors happy, etc. Getting rid of Glass Steagall was a bad idea.

Also if you want to blame the CRA, I read a paper from the fed a few years back that stated over 50% of high priced loans (subprime, no doc, etc) were not CRA related and only something like 10% were both lower income and in CRA areas. So kind of hard to blame the CRA.


Lets take a look at AIG while not a bank, it is mind numbing how much they wrote in derivatives with little to back it up. The fact that derivatives weren't regulated is crazy.

Now I do agree that low interest rates helped drive the bubble. Partly due to the fact that the typical ways of earning money don't earn as much (such as Treasurys and muni bonds) and new investments need to be found.
 

woolybug25

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Yes, banks like profit. Banks also dislike risk. Interest rates (the price of money) are the magical melting of the two. When interest rates are allowed to accurately measure risk, these markets regulate themselves. "Cheap money" from artificially low rates encourage bubbles, and all bubbles eventually burst.

This is true at a 30,000 foot view of banking. But in practice, it doesn't tell the entire story.

Banks (rightfully so) want to be paid for their (shareholder) risk. That is typically done with interest rates. But also through fee income. Right now for instance, we are seeing the largest percentage of fee income to revenue numbers we have ever dealt with. This is based off of just what you are talking about. We are being squeezed by government regulation, suppressed interest rates, mandated provisions and liquidity premiums.

So banks aren't just getting hit on a suppressed Prime rate. The guvment has essentially swung the Risk Pendulum all of the way to the other side. Banks are flush with cash, but no ability to lend it.
 

wizards8507

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Bullshit. Banks during the mid 2000's took amazing amounts of risk on their own without being pushed by the government. Partly because bonuses were based on short term goals not long term, partly to chase profits to make investors happy, etc. Getting rid of Glass Steagall was a bad idea.

Also if you want to blame the CRA, I read a paper from the fed a few years back that stated over 50% of high priced loans (subprime, no doc, etc) were not CRA related and only something like 10% were both lower income and in CRA areas. So kind of hard to blame the CRA.
Of course THE FED said that. The Fed is who's primarily to blame. The reason the banks took the risks you mentioned in your first point is because the risk was cheap. Banks are much more likely to gamble when they can leverage debt at 0% than if they were actually paying market rates.

Lets take a look at AIG while not a bank, it is mind numbing how much they wrote in derivatives with little to back it up. The fact that derivatives weren't regulated is crazy.

Now I do agree that low interest rates helped drive the bubble. Partly due to the fact that the typical ways of earning money don't earn as much (such as Treasurys and muni bonds) and new investments need to be found.
Again, real interest rates would have regulated the markets without legislation. The derivative speculation was all being done on margin, i.e. debt. When debt is cheap (or free), i.e. low interest rates, it's going to run rampant.

This is true at a 30,000 foot view of banking. But in practice, it doesn't tell the entire story.

Banks (rightfully so) want to be paid for their (shareholder) risk. That is typically done with interest rates. But also through fee income. Right now for instance, we are seeing the largest percentage of fee income to revenue numbers we have ever dealt with. This is based off of just what you are talking about. We are being squeezed by government regulation, suppressed interest rates, mandated provisions and liquidity premiums.

So banks aren't just getting hit on a suppressed Prime rate. The guvment has essentially swung the Risk Pendulum all of the way to the other side. Banks are flush with cash, but no ability to lend it.
And the banks that get squeezed the hardest by the regulations are the neighborhood and community banks. Regulation doesn't much bother JPMorganCityCountrywideBankofAmericaMerryllLynch.
 
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pkt77242

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Of course THE FED said that. The Fed is who's primarily to blame. The reason the banks took the risks you mentioned in your first point is because the risk was cheap. Banks are much more likely to gamble when they can leverage debt at 0% than if they were actually paying market rates.


Again, real interest rates would have regulated the markets without legislation. The derivative speculation was all being done on margin, i.e. debt. When debt is cheap (or free), i.e. low interest rates, it's going to run rampant.


And the banks that get squeezed the hardest by the regulations are the neighborhood and community banks. Regulation doesn't much bother JPMorganCityCountrywideBankofAmericaMerryllLynchChaseWellsFargo.

Again the CRA had very little to do with the financial crisis. If under 10% of the high priced loans met both requirements for the CRA (30% or so met one criteria, either low income or a CRA area) and about 60% met none, why would we blame the CRA?

As to your middle point, then don't tell me that banks care about risk. They took massive risks during the mid 2000's. Yes they "care" about risk but they care more about profits.
As to the last point, I am all for breaking up the big banks.
 

woolybug25

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As to the last point, I am all for breaking up the big banks.

I always ask this when I hear this... how would that help?

We have over 5,000 banks in the United States. More than any other country (Canada, for reference, has 3). How would creating more banks solve any of the issues facing the banking industry? Big banks aren't squeezing out small guys, the opposite is happening. The big banks are buying up their debt products via capital markets as fast as community banks can underwrite it.

I'm all for smart regulation on the industry. But the knee jerk reactions of late haven't helped the industry. We need more regulation on derivatives, capital markets and trading. We need government to also do their part by increasing rates, lowering provisions and quit giving away stockholder money with all of the zero equity lending policies.
 

drayer54

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Interesting... you seem to share a lot of the same feelings on Trump, but would be willing to give him your vote?

If i'm a Republican... I am definitely not voting Trump. He is a grenade to an already embattled party. A nail in the coffin, if you will.

Trump is Idiocracy in real life. I think he is a total buffoon who has no principles and is fueled by nothing but ambition and the desire for power. I voted for Marco Rubio in the primary and never seriously considered Trump. The voters in this country are stupid, so I am slowly accepting that Trump 2016 is going to happen. People (some, not all) voted for Gore because he kissed his wife, they voted for Bush because he made them feel safe, Obama because he was black, and now Trump because he is essentially like sticking a middle finger in our nations capitol.

I love our founding fathers and the documents of the era. I think it was a magical period in history with almost divine intervention to create the greatest political documents of all time. This is why I cringe when people so freely give up the 2nd or 4th amendment and am horrified that Trump will hold the office of Jefferson and Madison.

However, the trend of voting for the lesser perceived evil between political forces will likely continue this year. I would genuinely cheer for the candidacy of Rubio or possibly Kasich, but people like me have been trumped by people who vote in anger. Hillary Clinton represents another kind of evil that I will oppose at every step. I think she is absolutely crooked and would bet my estate that she has committed several crimes in her career. I think she is no different from Trump in that she will say anything to get a vote and has no principal. This election would be a pure power chase by two people who lack any substance.

My hope is that Trump surrounds himself with people who do have a clue and keep him under control. I think he is smart enough to understand what he doesn't know. He has stated his VP will be a politician and I think he wants to "win" enough that he will hopefully keep the house standing long enough to get someone with principals in the office.

I'm resigned to the fact that my tax dollars will either be spent on a stupid wall or more stupid false entitlements in the coming years. I think the best hope for our party lies in Marco Rubio, a person who can expand the base beyond the white guys, but apparently the rest of the party doesn't see it that way.
 

wizards8507

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Again the CRA had very little to do with the financial crisis. If under 10% of the high priced loans met both requirements for the CRA (30% or so met one criteria, either low income or a CRA area) and about 60% met none, why would we blame the CRA?
Maybe I didn't demarcate my points clearly enough. The Community Reinvestment Act was one cause of the subprime mortgage crisis. The Federal Reserve holding interest rates artificially low as a separate point.

As to your middle point, then don't tell me that banks care about risk. They took massive risks during the mid 2000's. Yes they "care" about risk but they care more about profits.
Profit and risk are not unrelated. When interest rates properly reflect risk, the decision to take those risks is properly correlated to the expected profit. In other words, the decision to maximize profit and the decision to adequately manage risk lead you to the same conclusion. The fact that the interest rates were too low means that the risk-reward calculation was skewed. Derivative investments weren't perceived to be as risky as they were because they were being bought with free money.

As to the last point, I am all for breaking up the big banks.
Except that all the new regulations you'd like to see would lead right back to consolidation.
 

woolybug25

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And the banks that get squeezed the hardest by the regulations are the neighborhood and community banks. Regulation doesn't much bother JPMorganCityCountrywideBankofAmericaMerryllLynch.

To an extent, yes. They certainly do not have the reserves necessary to work with the provisions required by government (for the laymen reading, provisions are money we have to set aside for every loan written. It's a safeguard for when loans go bad), but that doesn't stop them from lending. They underwrite the deals and then sell them to big banks either in whole or part of a portfolio. They take the fee income of the sale to the larger bank, the larger bank takes the risk profile and interest income.

Where small banks are getting killed are the fees on debit cards, interchange fees and the Volcker Rule.
 

drayer54

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If a guy like Jim Webb was running against Trump, I think many people would agree with you and they'd cross party lines to vote for him. But HRC is scum. Everyone on the right and left knows it. She's a liar and just as self interested as Trump (if not more).
.

I would have crossed the aisle to support Jim Webb. He was my first senate vote and did wonders for the veterans in this country. He is a profoundly talented man and it's a damn shame he didn't rise in this election process.

I agree with everything you said here.
 
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