2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


  • Total voters
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B

Buster Bluth

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You seem to think the purpose of the Congress is to do what the President wants, and the American people can fuck off.

Did you hit your head recently? This is a new low for you, the ol' cherry-pick-unpopular-programs-and-have-him-defend-them-even-though-that-wasn't-the-point-he-was-making trick, smooth.

I'll comment on them, but here's why this is stupid: when I say the GOP is opposing Democrats' bills, that means they are blocking both the good ones and the bad ones (good/bad being weighed on popularity, which is itself a weird way to measure things), so you pointing out the "bad" ones and going "Well yeah chief that just makes sense" is laughably illogical.

Americans oppose amnesty for illegal immigrants.

...and yet they favor a path to citizenship. Words and branding are powerful.

Americans don't like the Affordable Care Act.

Neither do I, but here's a fun bit: journalists obtained a Fox News memo in which their partisan bosses instructed their anchors to use "government option" and never "public option" when they can prevent it, because Americans oppose one and favor another even though they're the same. damn. thing. Words and branding are powerful, and just like I was saying before there is now a gigantic entity known as Fox News that can brand politics in a way that hasn't existed before.

Americans don't like drone strikes on American citizens living abroad (though they do support drone strikes on foreign terrorists). Americans don't like bulk phone metadata collection. On what basis are Republicans the bad guys for opposing things that the American people oppose?

These are weird simply because they're not Republican vs Obama issues like many other issues. I mean correct me if I'm wrong but Republicans have majorities in both houses and things like the USA Freedom Act passes through both houses. Enter your "yeah they caved!" line, but then why use that as evidence to back your point about opposing his agenda?

Plus am I wrong or were the PATRIOT Act and borderline-legal drone strikes started under Republicans in the 2000's?

...do we want to bring up the numerous popular measures Republicans won't even talk about?

Nothing displays the extreme status of the Republican party as well as this clip from 2012 primaries:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WKzGZj32LYc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And you guys want to tell me it's the Democrats who are being tough to work with these days?
 

wizards8507

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Did you hit your head recently? This is a new low for you, the ol' cherry-pick-unpopular-programs-and-have-him-defend-them-even-though-that-wasn't-the-point-he-was-making trick, smooth.

I'll comment on them, but here's why this is stupid: when I say the GOP is opposing Democrats' bills, that means they are blocking both the good ones and the bad ones (good/bad being weighed on popularity, which is itself a weird way to measure things), so you pointing out the "bad" ones and going "Well yeah chief that just makes sense" is laughably illogical.



...and yet they favor a path to citizenship. Words and branding are powerful.



Neither do I, but here's a fun bit: journalists obtained a Fox News memo in which their partisan bosses instructed their anchors to use "government option" and never "public option" when they can prevent it, because Americans oppose one and favor another even though they're the same. damn. thing. Words and branding are powerful, and just like I was saying before there is now a gigantic entity known as Fox News that can brand politics in a way that hasn't existed before.



These are weird simply because they're not Republican vs Obama issues like many other issues. I mean correct me if I'm wrong but Republicans have majorities in both houses and things like the USA Freedom Act passes through both houses. Enter your "yeah they caved!" line, but then why use that as evidence to back your point about opposing his agenda?

Plus am I wrong or were the PATRIOT Act and borderline-legal drone strikes started under Republicans in the 2000's?

...do we want to bring up the numerous popular measures Republicans won't even talk about?

Nothing displays the extreme status of the Republican party as well as this clip from 2012 primaries:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WKzGZj32LYc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And you guys want to tell me it's the Democrats who are being tough to work with these days?
I'm not defending the Republican party in general, and I'm certainly not defending the Patriot act. I'm merely responding to the conversation about filibusters, the most prominent of which were Ted Cruz trying to defund the Affordable Care Act and Rand Paul speaking out against drone strikes and NSA spying.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Parties have never been homogeneous voting blocks though. That's why there is a whip, etc.

Are you guys even reading what I'm typing?

Obama having no political short game is his fault. If he and his party were physically incapable of wrangling even one vote from the "opposition" then 1) they had bad legislative leaders or 2) they had bad policies. Or both.

Like you can't take a policy that was wildly unpopular with the American public at large AND didn't even have full support of his own part and say "it's all the Republicans fault!" You talk about Obamacare, but there were MANY Democrats (like ND's own Joe Donnelly) who behind closed doors ADAMANTLY opposed the legislation because it was unpopular among their constituents and then got whipped/coerced/bought into supporting it. If you have to spend all of your political capital on your own party then I guess I can see how you wouldn't have any left over to get votes from the opposition. And that's exactly what happened.

Please go back and show me where I've defended the bill. What "fault" would I even be associating with Republicans?

Wiz said Obama could do whatever he wanted, and I said that's not so true because he only had 59.

Any fault I've placed on Republicans is long-term and not having much to do with Obamacare. The Republicans have been the ones refusing to work with the Democrats during his term, and that it's largely because of the power of Fox News and other conservative media outlets. I have yet to read anything pushing back against that and points like the Norquist pledge, which is the only actual opinion I've put forth.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I know you are talking to Buster, but here are my thoughts.

- Authorized the assassination of Osama Bin Laden
- He created the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.
- As of January 2016, a record 64 consecutive months of overall job growth.
- Negotiated a deal with Swiss banks permitting the US government to gain access to bank records of criminals and tax evaders.
- Unfroze the secondary market for SBA loans which immediately brought liquidity to community banks. This was all part of his Financial Stability Plan.
- Repealed the reprehensible “Don’t Ask Don’t Tell” policy.
- Issued a Presidential Memorandum reaffirming the rights of gay couples to make medical decisions for each other. Laying the groundwork for the legalization of Gay Marriage.
- Strengthened the Endangered Species Act.
- Blocked all oil and gas drilling in Bristol Bay, Alaska, one of the most pristine environments in North America, and Wooly's prime time spot.

Thanks for the list. Most of these items are outside my areas of expertise, so I'll take your word for it. I asked Buster specifically since his political priorities (realism in foreign policy abroad, maintaining civil rights at home, etc.) seem to overlap strongly with my own; and Obama hasn't done well regarding things I care about.

Despite running hard against Bush in 2008, he ultimately doubled down on his predecessor's worst policies by destabilizing Libya, Ukraine and Syria, while further expanding on the drone assassination program and dragnet surveillance of Americans. Religious liberty has also suffered significantly during his tenure, as his administration is currently litigating against Notre Dame, the Little Sisters of the Poor, et al. in an effort to force Catholic institutions into complicity with behavior they deem to be deeply immoral. And then there's his signature policy initiative, the ACA, which entrenched the worst aspects of the pre-existing cronyist third-party-payor system without realizing any of the cost savings that would have come via single-payor or a market-based system.

Those are just the one's i'm sure about. There are several that, regardless of the knee jerk reactions from his detractors, can't really be judged in the near term. The reality is that all Presidents are looked at under a better light as time goes by. Obama will too.

You really think history will judge GW Bush kindly? To be clear, I'm not arguing that Obama was a "bad" president. But if you want to rate him as "mediocre" (as Buster did), one would expect a roughly equal mix of good and bad policy choices. I'm just not seeing enough success to even out the significant failures.
 

wizards8507

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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/onUaRyvfv1A" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Pretty clever.
 

IrishLax

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Are you guys even reading what I'm typing?

Please go back and show me where I've defended the bill. What "fault" would I even be associating with Republicans?

Wiz said Obama could do whatever he wanted, and I said that's not so true because he only had 59.

Any fault I've placed on Republicans is long-term and not having much to do with Obamacare. The Republicans have been the ones refusing to work with the Democrats during his term, and that it's largely because of the power of Fox News and other conservative media outlets. I have yet to read anything pushing back against that and points like the Norquist pledge, which is the only actual opinion I've put forth.

Yup, and that's why I quoted a very specific section:

"Uh huh. If you don't have 60 votes you might as well have 41 if the other Party opposes your plan. Being just "one or two votes off" is the same as being a dozen votes off."

I didn't quote any of your other posts or any other parts of posts for a reason. This is what I responded to, because IMO it's misleading with respect to congressional politics. The difference between 60 votes and 41 votes is actually HUGE (not negligible) if you have strong opposition from another party... because it's infinitely easier to wrangle 1 vote than it is to wrangle 20.

If Obama had tried to put forth policy that was supported by the American public at the time, then he would've been able to get it done. He didn't, and the ACA is a prime example of that and how he wasted his political capital. Which is why I brought it up, because it's a great illustration fo the challenges he and Democratic leadership faces. It's not only probably the most renowned piece of legislation from that time period, but it's one where we actually have lots of anecdotal accounts of what happened behind the scenes to get it done, and why it was so hard for them.
 

woolybug25

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You really think history will judge GW Bush kindly? To be clear, I'm not arguing that Obama was a "bad" president. But if you want to rate him as "mediocre" (as Buster did), one would expect a roughly equal mix of good and bad policy choices. I'm just not seeing enough success to even out the significant failures.

I think we have already seen GW's image greatly improve. Time heals all wounds and whatnot.

The thing is with Obama, is that on a high level, he has made a lot of moves. Gay rights, the war in Afghanistan, Affordable Care, Environmental Advocacy, Bin Laden, Emission Standards, Nuclear Deal with Iran, Emissions Deal with China, Blocked Keystone Pipeline, Bank Bailout, Auto Bailout, Cuba, TARP, etc, etc...

The list goes on and on. Now, every single poster on this site can look at the items above and state they disagree, hate and/or think some or all of those aren't "achievements". But I promise you that there are people that see one or more of those as a major achievement. We can debate whether they are until the cows come home... but there will be people that remain.

So time, political landscape, etc will round the edges off of all of those items. Then people will remember the charismatic, first black President that visited more countries in his first six months than any prior President did throughout their term. They will remember the one liners, the speeches and the SNL skits. The people that really hate him 20 years from now, will be the same people that hated him before he stepped one foot into the White House. The more moderate, young, etc... well, they just wont care as much. They will prefer to respect the "character", just like Carter, Bush Sr, Reagan, etc. Tis life.
 

Whiskeyjack

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The more moderate, young, etc... well, they just wont care as much. They will prefer to respect the "character", just like Carter, Bush Sr, Reagan, etc. Tis life.

You're probably right; I don't really care about his public perception now, or how future generations will judge him. Suffice it to say that those who were hoping for a return to saner foreign policy and respect for civil rights after Bush have been sorely disappointed in Obama's presidency.
 

kmoose

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8 U.S. Code § 1481 - Loss of nationality by native-born or naturalized citizen; voluntary action; burden of proof; presumptions

(a) A person who is a national of the United States whether by birth or naturalization, shall lose his nationality by voluntarily performing any of the following acts with the intention of relinquishing United States nationality—

(3) entering, or serving in, the armed forces of a foreign state if (A) such armed forces are engaged in hostilities against the United States, or (B) such persons serve as a commissioned or non-commissioned officer; or

In other words, if you join a foreign army, you lose your American citizenship. However, ISIS isn't a recognized country so they don't count. Interestingly, Ted Cruz has a solution to that.

Join ISIS, lose US citizenship? Lawmakers target Americans sympathizing with terror groups | Fox News

I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here. But I hope that you aren't insinuating that average people on the street are going to assume that an American citizen who is fighting for ISIS in Iraq has been stripped of their citizenship and therefore is no longer a citizen? Anwar al-Awlaki was never stripped of his citizenship, despite YEARS of actively and openly recruiting people to join in the jihad movement against America.
 

Whiskeyjack

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President Trump's first State of the Union Address:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sGUNPMPrxvA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

wizards8507

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I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here. But I hope that you aren't insinuating that average people on the street are going to assume that an American citizen who is fighting for ISIS in Iraq has been stripped of their citizenship and therefore is no longer a citizen? Anwar al-Awlaki was never stripped of his citizenship, despite YEARS of actively and openly recruiting people to join in the jihad movement against America.
I'm saying that is (or should be) the case, regardless of whether average people on the street assume it to be. It makes the question of "should we drone strike American citizens engaged in war against the United States" irrelevant because there's no such thing as an American citizen engaged in war against the United States.
 

kmoose

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I'm saying that is (or should be) the case, regardless of whether average people on the street assume it to be. It makes the question of "should we drone strike American citizens engaged in war against the United States" irrelevant because there's no such thing as an American citizen engaged in war against the United States.

OK... I disagree, but that's beside the point.

The point is that I bet that a TON more people would voice their support for drone strikes on US citizens in foreign countries if the question were amended to replace suspicion
of being involved with terrorism, with certainty of participation in terrorist activities/support of terrorism against the US.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Reihan Salam just posted an article for Slate titled "I can't hate Donald Trump":

I can’t bring myself to hate Donald Trump. Part of this is a quirk of biography. Like a lot of native New Yorkers around my age, I find his outer-borough accent so comfortingly familiar that I can’t help but smile whenever I hear his voice, even when he’s saying something outrageously offensive. To a certain kind of smart, scrappy, lower-middle-class New York youth in the ’80s and ’90s, Trump was the living embodiment of gaudy success—a kind of mash-up of Santa Claus, Scrooge McDuck, and Vito Corleone. When I was a kid, it was not at all uncommon to hear friends and classmates declare that they wanted to be Donald Trump when they grew up. They didn’t want to be real estate developers or casino magnates. They literally wanted to be Trump, which seems doubly strange in hindsight, as so few of the kids I have in mind were white.

But nostalgia isn’t the only reason I can’t hate Trump. The deeper explanation for my ambivalence is that he is speaking for millions of Americans who’ve lost faith in the political process. Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary was broad and decisive. He fared well among Republican primary voters across the ideological, religious, and class spectrum. As Ron Brownstein has observed, however, “[Trump’s] appeal notably lagged among both evangelicals and better-educated Republicans.” Elsewhere, in an analysis of the Iowa counties in which the various Republican counties fared best, Patrick Ruffini found a striking contrast between the counties that went for Rubio and for Trump. While the counties that went for Rubio tended to have a higher number of households with incomes greater than $200,000, more new home construction, and more adults with post-graduate degrees, the counties that went for Trump tended to have higher rates of unemployment and a higher share of adults who identify as Scots-Irish, or simply as “American.” This fits neatly with Nate Cohn’s analysis of the Trump coalition, which he finds is concentrated in counties across the country with a low proportion of college-educated adults. Trump is strongest not in the metropolitan corners of America, where he’s spent most of his life. Rather, his strongholds are the mostly overlooked sections of the South, Appalachia, and the rural and semi-rural North.

Why is Trump doing so much better among non-college-educated, secular voters than among churchgoers and the college-educated? One possibility is that the Republicans who look to Rubio, Bush, and other mainstream candidates are broadly satisfied with the direction of American life. They’re more likely to believe that their lives have been enriched by immigrant labor, and to feel more insulated from global economic competition. The religiously devout can be found in every social class, but those who are part of strong religious communities have a source of spiritual and emotional support that their secular counterparts often lack.

Many have been struck by the overwhelming whiteness of Trump’s campaign, not least the small number of self-identified “white nationalists” who’ve rallied around his campaign. I would argue that the Trump coalition illustrates how whiteness as a category is so expansive as to be almost meaningless. The Scots-Irish or “American” whites who see Trump as their champion are profoundly different from the metropolitan whites who dominate the upper echelons of U.S. society—so much so that the convention of lumping them together as “white” detracts far more from our understanding of how they fit into our society than it adds to it. J.D. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, a forthcoming book on the place of Appalachian whites in modern America, estimates that roughly one-quarter of whites belong to the Scots-Irish tribe that has embraced Trump. If we were to separate out these Americans as a race or ethnicity unto themselves, Vance writes, we would finds rates of poverty and substance abuse that would shock our national conscience. But we don’t generally collect detailed statistics on the Scots-Irish. We don’t have a clear sense of how their labor force participation or disability rates compare to those of other Americans, including other white Americans. And so their experiences and their collective traumas blend into whiteness, where they can be safely ignored. Whites are privileged, after all.

None of this is to suggest that Donald Trump deserves the support of those who are putting so much faith in him. It’s fair to question his judgment, his temperament, and his understanding of what an executive can and can’t do in a constitutional republic. I certainly do. But there is a reason Trump’s message is resonating with working-class white voters while the messages of other Republican candidates are not. His supporters believe that Trump will fight for them, and they have no such confidence in his GOP rivals. The voters flocking to Trump believe that they’ve been lied to and betrayed by conventional politicians, and that he is offering them the unvarnished truth.

When Barack Obama first emerged on the political scene, he excited voters who saw in him a reflection of their own experiences. His mixed ancestry, his upbringing as the son of an intellectually curious and at times very poor single mother, and his experience of upward mobility through higher education—all of these experiences resonated with Americans who’d had similar journeys, and who felt validated by Obama’s narrative.

Trump and Obama are almost as different as one American can be from another. Nevertheless, Trump has built a gut-level connection that is no less formidable, and with an entirely different set of Americans. Obama famously swore off the conventional route to wealth and achievement, having chosen to work as a community organizer rather than climb the professional ranks. Trump would never have renounced earthly rewards in the same way. What Trump did was reject the upper-class culture of restraint. Whereas those who inherit great wealth typically shrink from proclaiming the bottomlessness of their appetites, Trump openly describes himself as “a very greedy person.” That’s something Mitt Romney, another product of privilege, would never say in a million years. Trump’s avariciousness reads as authenticity, and so he’s somehow more believable when he declares himself a convert to public-spiritedness, as when he insists that he wants to harness his greed for good—that he wants “to be so greedy for our country,” as he said at a presidential debate in January.

Trump is a traitor to his class, who rails against hedge funders and the executives of drug companies for manipulating the political process to enrich themselves at the expense of ordinary Americans. These are the very same people you’d expect Trump to dine with at Mar-a-Lago, and here he is declaring war on them. The fact that his tax plan would “be a huge windfall for private equity and hedge funds,” in the words of Len Burman, director of the Tax Policy Center, is almost immaterial to the people who support him. There is something strange and compelling about seeing a billionaire declare war on his own kind.

Contrast Trump with the runner-up in the New Hampshire primary, John Kasich. Kasich has at least as much of a claim to speaking for the Scots-Irish whites who have been central to Trump’s success. Though he’s of eastern European descent, Kasich grew up in working-class western Pennsylvania, where he lived among the descendants of Appalachians who fled rural poverty for jobs in the region’s booming industrial cities. Yet Kasich seems incapable of playing the role of class traitor. Before becoming governor of Ohio, Kasich had parlayed his political renown into a job as a managing director at Lehman Brothers, a storied bank that went down in flames when the 2008 financial crisis hit. Kasich is an admirable figure in many respects, and he’s forgotten more about the workings of government than Donald Trump will ever know. Yet in the eyes of many Trump supporters, Kasich is the more compromised figure, as Trump has been quick to own up to his gleeful participation in political corruption.

Imagine how dangerous Trump would be if he were more disciplined and focused, and if he had serious prescriptions for how to make the global economy work for Americans in the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution. For now, however, Trump is on a mission of destruction: He is demonstrating the weakness of the Republican donor class, which has barely dented him over months of campaigning, and he is forcing orthodox conservatives to question the agenda they’ve been advancing for decades as they see rank-and-file GOP voters reject it in large numbers. I hate Trump far less than I hate the Republicans who’ve paved his way. And if Trump goes down in flames, as I still believe he will, the Republican Party must never forget the Rust Belt Americans he’s inspired—because if they do, there will be another Trump waiting in the wings.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Thought this Sanders add was pretty effective:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nyhfJTFJHu8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And here's an article by Will Wilkinson titled "Is there a libertarian case for Bernie Sanders":

Andrew Kirell of the Daily Beast has asked the question. The answer is actually very easy, but it’s not one I’ve seen anyone give. Yes, there is a libertarian case for Bernie Sanders. Here it is.

According to the libertarian Fraser Institute’s preliminary 2015 Human Freedom Index, which combines measures of personal, civil, and economic freedoms, here are the top ten freest countries in the world:

  1. Hong Kong
  2. Switzerland
  3. Finland
  4. Denmark
  5. New Zealand
  6. Canada
  7. Australia
  8. Ireland
  9. The United Kingdom
  10. Sweden
The United States—city on a hill, conceived in liberty, beacon of freedom unto the world—ranks a humiliating 20th, just behind the island nation of Mauritius and just ahead of the Czech Republic, which was part of a communist dictatorship when I was in high school. If this is America’s “libertarian moment,” then color me underwhelmed.

The libertarian case for Bernie Sanders is simply that Bernie Sanders wants to make America more like Denmark, Canada, or Sweden … and the citizens of those countries enjoy more liberty than Americans do. No other candidate specifically aims to make the United States more closely resemble a freer country. That’s it. That’s the case.

Is it really that easy? I think so. But perhaps you’re skeptical. Let me explain myself more fully. Join me, won’t you, on a brief philosophical foray.

Thomas Reid, the Scottish Enlightenment philosopher, pointed out that there are two ways to construct an account of what it means to really know something, rather than just believing it to be true. The first way is to develop an abstract theory of knowledge—a general criterion that separates the wheat of knowledge from the chaff of mere opinion—and then see which of our opinions qualify as true knowledge. Reid noted that this method tends to lead to skepticism, because it’s hard, if not impossible, to definitively show that any of our opinions check off all the boxes these sort of general criteria tend to set out.

That’s why Descartes ends up in a pickle and Hume leaves us in a haze of uncertainty. It’s all a big mistake, Reid said, because the belief that I have hands, for example, is on much firmer ground than any abstract notions about the nature of true knowledge that I might dream up. If my theory implies that I don’t really know that I have hands, that’s a reason to reject the theory, not a reason to be skeptical about the existence of my appendages.

According to Reid, a better way to come up with a theory of knowledge is to make a list of the things we’re very sure that we really know. Then, we see if we can devise a coherent theory that explains how we know them.

The 20th century philosopher Roderick Chisholm called these two ways of theorizing about knowledge “methodism”—start with a general theory, apply it, and see what, if anything, counts as knowledge according to the theory—and “particularism”—start with an inventory of things that we’re sure we know and then build a theory of knowledge on top of it.

The point of all this is that an analogous distinction applies to our thinking about politics.

Suppose you’re especially interested in liberty, as I am. If you’re a theory-first methodist, what you’re going to do is concoct a general theory of liberty and then use it to tell you what a maximally free regime looks like. I think the analogy to theories of knowledge is very good here, since strong theory-first libertarians often come to the conclusion that no state-based regime can ever qualify as fully free. This amounts to deep theory-driven skepticism about government that’s a lot like deep theory-driven skepticism about knowledge. But then, well… what? I can’t tell you for sure that I’m not stuck in a computer simulation, so I don’t know that I have hands. And I can’t tell you for sure how to square my intuitions about coercion and consent with the legitimacy of government (or property, for that matter). Okay. Sure. So what now? We’ve got to get on with life. What gloves should I buy for my maybe-computer-simulated hands? What kind of maybe-illegitimate government should we want to live under?

Thomas Reid’s way is a better way. If you’re a data-first libertarian particularist, what you’re going to do is identify the regimes in which people enjoy the most freedom, and then try to come up with a theory of freedom that makes sense of the pattern of apparent facts.

But wait! How can you tell which regimes are freest without starting with an implicit theory of freedom? Great question. You can’t, really. But it’s not that big a problem.

The Fraser index breaks freedom down into personal, economic, and civil domains. Surely, there’s some sort of theory behind that. And the authors make a ton of assumptions about what counts as more or less freedom in each of those domains. But they’re all fairly reasonable assumptions, largely based on ordinary, commonsense ideas about freedom. At least they’re reasonable to me.

The important thing to note, in this case, is that the scholars making these assumptions, Ian Vásquez and Tanja Porčnik, former Cato Institute colleagues of mine, are libertarians who understand freedom as “the absence of coercive constraint.” And when they apply that notion of freedom and stick all their Koch-funded assumptions into an index and add everything up, Denmark, which is what Bernie Sanders thinks of as a model of “democratic socialism,” comes out a lot freer than the United States. Canada, which has precisely the sort of single-payer health-care system Bernie Sanders wants, comes out a lot freer than the United States—on a libertarian index of freedom.

You might notice that Scandinavian social democracies and somewhat more American-style Anglophone capitalist welfare states both feature heavily in the top ten of liberty. If any of the candidates in the race were touting Hong Kong (questionably ranked, in my opinion, in the age of de jure Chinese control) or New Zealand as models they wish to emulate, it would be pretty reasonable for libertarians to prefer those candidates. But there aren’t any. Only Bernie Sanders is pointing at regimes in which people enjoy more freedom than they do in the United States and saying, “Let’s be a lot more like that.”

Bernie Sanders wants to make the United States more like countries that are significantly more free than the United States, according to an index of overall freedom built on libertarian assumptions about the nature of freedom, and no other candidate does. That’s the libertarian case for Bernie Sanders. As long as you’re not allergic to starting with data rather than theory, it’s really pretty strong.

The biggest problem with my particularist, data-first libertarian argument for Bernie Sanders is that Bernie Sanders doesn’t seem to actually understand that Denmark-style social democracy is funded by a free-market capitalist system that is in many ways less regulated than American capitalism. As I wrote a few month’s ago:

The lesson Bernie Sanders needs to learn is that you cannot finance a Danish-style welfare state without free markets and large tax increases on the middle class. If you want Danish levels of social spending, you need Danish middle-class tax rates and a relatively unfettered capitalist economy. The fact that he’s unwilling to come out in favor of either half of the Danish formula for a viable social-democratic welfare state is the best evidence that Bernie Sanders is not actually very interested in what it takes to make social democracy work. The great irony of post-1989 political economy is that capitalism has proven itself the most reliable means to socialist ends. Bernie seems not to have gotten the memo.
Which is to say, democratic socialism, according to Bernie Sanders’ superannuated understanding of it, may have a dash too much Venezuela in it. That said, I think Sanders, if he had his druthers, really does want us to be more like Denmark, as it actually is, and that his dustier vintage socialist ideas are largely a function of the fact that American socialists have never had to reconcile themselves with capitalism because they’ve never governed.
Bernie is something like the mirror image of libertarian idealists in this respect. In the unlikely event that libertarian idealists ever manage to come into political power, they’d find it necessary to reconcile themselves with redistributive social insurance in order to sustain political support for a lightly-regulated dynamic market economy—just like practical, governing socialists have in fact found it necessary to reconcile themselves with relatively free markets.

Of the top ten freest countries, New Zealand probably has the most recognizably “libertarian” character, and is probably the best real-world example of what a counterfactually “libertarianized” America might look like under the governance of a bunch of pragmatically libertarian Rand Paul types (if they weren’t pretending, badly, to be conservative). The fact that New Zealand doesn’t function all that differently from Denmark, and the fact that Denmark and New Zealand enjoy indistinguishable levels of freedom, illustrates just how unworried libertarians ought to be about the possibility of a Denmark-admiring, single-payer-wanting, democratic socialist president.

I’ll be surprised if Sanders prevails against Hillary Clinton in the primaries. And I’ll be gobsmacked if he wins the general election. But if he does somehow survive the onslaught of red-baiting and became president, where he’d take us, if he could get anywhere at all, isn’t that far from where libertarians in power would take us, if they could get anywhere at all. If we’re lucky, we’ll live to see Bernie Sanders’ America and experience a future in which the United States, made great again, manages to knock Mauritius down a peg on the world freedom league tables, seizing the inestimable glory of 19th place.
 
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phgreek

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Thought this Sanders add was pretty effective:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nyhfJTFJHu8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


me too...I literally had a chris mathews moment...no I'm not drinking...the chills...sheesh.
 

phgreek

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couple quick observations about Democrat debate.

Bernie is doing extremely well for someone fighting with one hand...no question about Email, FBI...and he didn't interject it...yet again. Seriously...does someone have pictures bern?

If hillary hugs Mr. Obama any tighter, Mrs. Obama is going to smell hillary's perfume at night...its creepy.

Republicans better be ready, and if Donald Trump goes forward, start the funeral march now...they'll kill him, and the moderators will not avoid his exposed flank like they do Hillary and the email issue/ Clinton foundation donations...better send forward Kasich or Bush or this is going to get ugly....not because they are more moderate...but because they are more experienced and competent than any other option...
 

FightingIrishLover7

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Really enjoyed Bernie's rebuttal to not supporting Obama enough. "I just want to remind everyone, only one person on this stage has ever ran against Obama."

Seriously though, a few months ago, Hillary was trying to differentiate herself from Obama, now she's getting into bed with him? Can it be any more obvious that she's clinging onto him for his fans? (especially minorities)
 

brick4956

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<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aHzRCk-4ilM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Hillary likes to lie a lot
 

brick4956

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<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hGC2vg27bFI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

BleedBlueGold

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Thought this Sanders add was pretty effective:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nyhfJTFJHu8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And here's an article by Will Wilkinson titled "Is there a libertarian case for Bernie Sanders":

Great add. Bernie doesn't run negative adds. I've found his marketing team to be pretty enlightening. Kind of reminds me of ND's recruiting style in that they sell themselves and don't negatively recruit. I've always found it off-putting when campaigns focus on bashing their opponents but never actually try to sell themselves. *Happy to be able to connect ND football to my main man Bernie, haha.

Thanks for posting the article. I recently had a discussion about this sort of thing the other day. Now I have a little more backing. I still need to read through the Freedom Index. Hopefully I'll have some time over the weekend.
 
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GoldenDomer

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You would think a son of Polish immigrants would understand why capitalism works. There's a reason they came here.
 
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wizards8507

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And here's an article by Will Wilkinson titled "Is there a libertarian case for Bernie Sanders":
Absurd. Those liberty indexes are ridiculous.

1. Welfare states are built on redistribution of income.
2. Redistribution of income comes from taxation of income.
3. Taxation of income is confiscation of income.
4. Income is the product of one's labor.
5. Confiscation of the product of one's labor is slavery.
C1. Welfare states are built on slavery.

6. Slavery is the human condition least associated with liberty.
C2. Welfare states are not conducive to liberty.

The great irony of the article is that they speak about deregulated markets as the thing that can support the welfare state. But with deregulated markets, the welfare state can be made obsolete anyways.

I'll concede that such a system might be more libertarian than what we have today, but that's like saying America is less interventionist than Nazi Germany. Not exactly a bragging point.
 
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IrishLax

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Thought this Sanders add was pretty effective:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nyhfJTFJHu8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And here's an article by Will Wilkinson titled "Is there a libertarian case for Bernie Sanders":

Really good ad.

I will say though, I was personally disappointed by Sanders at the debate last night. Nothing super specific, just didn't feel like he did a good job staying on message and using specifics to answer questions.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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1. Welfare states are built on redistribution of income.

2. Redistribution of income comes from taxation of income.

giphy.gif


3. Taxation of income is confiscation of income.

giphy.gif


4. Income is the product of one's labor.

giphy.gif


5. Confiscation of the product of one's labor is slavery.

1061.gif


C1. Welfare states are built on slavery.

giphy.gif
 

palinurus

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Are you guys even reading what I'm typing?



Please go back and show me where I've defended the bill. What "fault" would I even be associating with Republicans?

Wiz said Obama could do whatever he wanted, and I said that's not so true because he only had 59.

Any fault I've placed on Republicans is long-term and not having much to do with Obamacare. The Republicans have been the ones refusing to work with the Democrats during his term, and that it's largely because of the power of Fox News and other conservative media outlets. I have yet to read anything pushing back against that and points like the Norquist pledge, which is the only actual opinion I've put forth.

Proof?
 

woolybug25

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Hey Wiz...

arrested-development-sword-of-destiny-silence-slave-buster-gob.gif


There is nothing more unbecoming than someone trying to make his dumb thought more simple because he thinks people don't understand him...
 

wizards8507

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Hey Wiz...

arrested-development-sword-of-destiny-silence-slave-buster-gob.gif


There is nothing more unbecoming than someone trying to make his dumb thought more simple because he thinks people don't understand him...
Tweets and GIFs, that's what our political discourse has become. Dispute a premise if you don't like the argument. I wasn't enumerating my points for simplicity, I was enumerating my points so you can argue specific premises in your attempt to discredit my argument.
 

woolybug25

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Tweets and GIFs, that's what our political discourse has become. Dispute a premise if you don't like the argument. I wasn't enumerating my points for simplicity, I was enumerating my points so you can argue specific premises in your attempt to discredit my argument.

2 out of 10.

Needs more apples.
 
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