2016 Presidential Horse Race

[BleedBlueGold]

Fox shows 701 Hillary to 697 Bernie - obviously some district consolidated vote thing going on there. Also shows Hillary getting 23 delegates to Bernie's 21 - but that does not include supers.


Might be fun to do a poll - Hillary, Trump or stay home as the three choices.

Iowa Democratic Party has announced that they will not be releasing the raw vote totals from the caucuses. The party did, however, release the vote totals in 2008.

Awkward: Iowa Dems Are Refusing to Release Raw Vote Totals - Christine Rousselle

 

[phgreek]

Awkward: Iowa Dems Are Refusing to Release Raw Vote Totals - Christine Rousselle

yup...

seems shady, and likely cover for supers to keep their pledge w/o having to explain...maybe? IDK.

 

[connor_in]

Time and a Trump candidacy, I suspect, would bind these wounds. I think lots of folks would show up just to vote against him, or Cruz. That said, I don't like the concept of super delegates. The candidate with the votes should win, period. And the DNC would damage their brand if they picked Hillary when Bernie got more votes.

You realize that same statement is true of Hillary, right? If HRC is the D nominee, then even with a Trump or a Cruz, R voter turnout would still be pretty big just to vote for Not-Hillary even if they have to hold their nose to do it (and maybe not admit it later)

 

[phgreek]

You realize that same statement is true of Hillary, right? If HRC is the D nominee, then even with a Trump or a Cruz, R voter turnout would still be pretty big just to vote for Not-Hillary even if they have to hold their nose to do it (and maybe not admit it later)

Oh this is lining up for trump...rapidly. Very Scary.

1) the stealth turnout for trump appears to already be documented as occurring as a punch at the establishment...and fueled by pundits and idiots like Huff PO...The more people mess with the common folks (I see you Huff PO) the stiffer the middle finger gets.

2) A Hillary nomination in the face of a perceived Bernie popular win. People will not let that go this cycle...even if Donald is on the other side. Then add in the morons like Steinam, Huff PO, and the other liberal rags who can't help their condescending jackass ways...the middle finger gets stiffer. Some vote Donald as a fuck you, and some just stay home.

3) Even if the people see a legit Hillary win, this scene is such a disaster we have a Bloomberg entry as an Indy because he fears Trump might win straight up. I think that would certainly crash the D bus.

From my chair I see more ways for trump to win than lose at this point...SMFH.

 

[GoIrish41]

You realize that same statement is true of Hillary, right? If HRC is the D nominee, then even with a Trump or a Cruz, R voter turnout would still be pretty big just to vote for Not-Hillary even if they have to hold their nose to do it (and maybe not admit it later)

I think its possible that the same is true, but unlikely. Trump only has the support of like a third of his own party. If the republicans would get their shit together and get it down to two candidates (one not named Cruz, a guy that somehow is more hated than Trump), I suspect Trump would be toast. Kasich or Rubio might have a shot to make it respectable showing, but with Trump heading the ticket, I just don't believe that the party will come out in big numbers for him. Maybe I'm just hoping our country isn't that f*cked and kidding myself, but we are talking about Donald Trump, here.

I get that people don't like Hillary, and I completely understand why. I don't like her much either. But people are terrified about what Trump might do in office -- not some policy decision that isn't in line with conservatism, but tweeting insults about a world leader's apperance because he doesn't like his/her stance on a position. His positions on Muslim's alone could set off a religious war and fundamentally alter our place in the world, emptying our treasury to fight a war over Trump getting his feelings hurt. It's not simply that people don't like him, it's that he could be a catastrophic figure in world history. For Christ sake, he just called Cruz a pussy at a campaign event this week. Anybody else in the history of American politics would have been disqualified by that, or any of 50 other things he has said. He says that's PC going crazy, I say he does not possess the self control to be president. Anybody who would vote for that guy is out of their freakin mind.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Christie is out.

 

[phgreek]

Christie is out.

figured that was coming...well for me its down to Kasich and JEB.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Funny Or Die Presents Donald Trump's The Art Of The Deal: The Movie from Owen Burke, Fu...

 

[BGIF]

Awkward: Iowa Dems Are Refusing to Release Raw Vote Totals - Christine Rousselle

"We haven't finished counting yet, Mr State Chairman. How many votes do you need for a win?"

Happy Days are here again! Shades of Landslide Lyndon.

Small wonder dems continually fight Voter I.D. or any other measure to ensure voting integrity like purging the dead from registration lists.

 

[connor_in]

Why Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Deserve the Black Vote | The Nation

 

[beryirish]

Fiorina is out also

 

[connor_in]

https://mobile.twitter.com/smod2016/status/697549358254809088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The rumors about the end of my campaign are completely false.
Smod doesn't drop out.
Smod drops in. pic.twitter.com/DdwDo28eLJ

 

[NDVirginia19]

Why Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Deserve the Black Vote | The Nation

Some stupid shit coming out of the pro Bernie media. Who's to say how black people should vote but black people themselves? This is one of the left's paradigms that I hate, they consistently assert that they know what's best for someone's voting interests and key into this identity politics feeding off of single issues. "Oh you're gay, you're an idiot if you vote republican." "You're a woman? You must hate your own gender and want to strip away your own rights if you vote republican" or my absolute favorite "Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz aren't real latinos because they are republican". It's absurd

 

[phgreek]

Fiorina is out also

crap...there goes the woman angle. Now Hillary will use the woman card...wait

 

[phgreek]

Why Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Deserve the Black Vote | The Nation

I can't speak for what black people should want...but history says ...well...ouch, the Clintons didn't do much to deserve the love.

 

[BGIF]

Ben Carson staying in race, sees South Carolina victory - CNNPolitics.com

By Tom LoBianco, CNN
Updated 6:00 PM ET, Wed February 10, 2016

Washington (CNN)Ben Carson said Wednesday he will be staying in the Republican race, despite a poor showing in New Hampshire, and is hoping to win big in South Carolina.

"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper on "The Lead." "You know, they're reminding me that I'm here because I responded to their imploring me to get involved. And I respect that and I'm not just going to walk away from the millions of people who are supporting me."

Carson came in second-to-last place Tuesday night, beating only former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore. His decision to stick in the race comes even as two candidates who beat him there, Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie, announced Wednesday they were ending their bids.

But Carson, who at one point attracted strong support from evangelical voters, said he expected to do well in South Carolina.

"I think I can win South Carolina. We're going to be putting a lot of time resources and effort here," Carson said.

Carson also downplayed his New Hampshire loss, saying he decided not to focus there on purpose.

"We didn't spend nearly as much money in New Hampshire as many others," Carson said. "We didn't spend anywhere near millions of dollars there, recognizing there were certain things that were going to happen there. So you have to pick your battles very carefully. We're doing just fine, people will continue to support us, we will move forward."

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Ben Carson staying in race, sees South Carolina victory - CNNPolitics.com

By Tom LoBianco, CNN
Updated 6:00 PM ET, Wed February 10, 2016

Is Carson out of touch with reality or what?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Idk if it's been mentioned but one of the funniest things going on in the GOP currently (to me anyways) is the Marco Roboto story. He's been literally repeating himself and his talking points during debates and speeches like some sort of computer glitch. Christie went after him in the last debate about it. Now people are showing up to his rally's dressed up like robots and getting assaulted by Rubio's supporters (ala Trump rally craziness).

The Trump vs Cruz fiasco is funny too. Especially the "he's a pussy" story.

 

[RDU Irish]

Hey - Trump didn't say that - he just repeated what a planted bystander said.

And Carson might as well hit So Car - it is on the way home to Florida. Dude is experiencing the dangers of the echo chamber - perfectly illustrating why he is not qualified to be president.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Hey - Trump didn't say that - he just repeated what a planted bystander said.

And Carson might as well hit So Car - it is on the way home to Florida. Dude is experiencing the dangers of the echo chamber - perfectly illustrating why he is not qualified to be president.

LOL. Yeah that's what I found funny about Trump. He totally "reprimanded" her for it too. Then repeated it loudly for everyone else to hear.

Cruz is a pussy though. The irony.

This is literally the best thing I've seen though:

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rQj0jQReCwE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[wizards8507]

Is Carson out of touch with reality or what?

He's either insane or an utter charlatan.

 

[wizards8507]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BGRAonpLeQg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[kmoose]

Idk if it's been mentioned but one of the funniest things going on in the GOP currently (to me anyways) is the Marco Roboto story. He's been literally repeating himself and his talking points during debates and speeches like some sort of computer glitch. Christie went after him in the last debate about it.

I heard this story and I don't get why it is a story....

We expect candidates to "get their message out", and we expect that message to be consistent no matter the audience. So wouldn't it make sense that they should be repeating some of the same things over and over? I mean, if that's what their platform is, it shouldn't change from state to state.

 

[wizards8507]

Idk if it's been mentioned but one of the funniest things going on in the GOP currently (to me anyways) is the Marco Roboto story. He's been literally repeating himself and his talking points during debates and speeches like some sort of computer glitch. Christie went after him in the last debate about it. Now people are showing up to his rally's dressed up like robots and getting assaulted by Rubio's supporters (ala Trump rally craziness).

The irony is that it was Chris Christie going after him. Chris Christie, mister "as a former federal prosecuter, it was my job to put terrorists in jail after 9/11" ad nauseam.

It's a shame that the discussion has been about the Rubio repeating himself and not about the substance of what he's saying. There's a fundamental rift in the Republican party about how to address Obama's agenda. Christie's argument is that Obama is an incompetent boob whose policies have failed because he's poor at "getting the job done" when it comes to implementing them. The key example there would be the healthcare.gov launch debacle. Rubio's point is that Obama is far from clueless. Rather, he knows exactly what he's doing and the reasons his policies have been unsuccessful is because they're bad policies that would have blown up even if the greatest administrator in the world was in charge of rolling them out. That's an important distinction when it comes to weighing which of these candidates will really take the country in a new direction versus simply trying to manage the country more efficiently in the same direction it's been going.

I heard this story and I don't get why it is a story....

We expect candidates to "get their message out", and we expect that message to be consistent no matter the audience. So wouldn't it make sense that they should be repeating some of the same things over and over? I mean, if that's what their platform is, it shouldn't change from state to state.

Did you watch the debate? I agree with you on substance, but it was a bad look for Rubio. Within the debate, he repeated the exact same words verbatim several times. He just got "stuck" in a bit of a mental block, but it was very off-putting.

 

[RDU Irish]

I heard this story and I don't get why it is a story....

We expect candidates to "get their message out", and we expect that message to be consistent no matter the audience. So wouldn't it make sense that they should be repeating some of the same things over and over? I mean, if that's what their platform is, it shouldn't change from state to state.

Keeps you safe from gaffes and you have limited air time to get a message out - gotta beat it into people's heads. Then again, if you are Trump you embrace gaffes and claim everyone is taking everything you say out of context.

Do agree that the debate was offputting but also petty.

I agree with Christie and Rubio - Obama is incompetent on both levels.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I heard this story and I don't get why it is a story....

We expect candidates to "get their message out", and we expect that message to be consistent no matter the audience. So wouldn't it make sense that they should be repeating some of the same things over and over? I mean, if that's what their platform is, it shouldn't change from state to state.

I should've been more clear. He's repeating talking points at the same speech and when he realizes he just repeated himself, it trips him up.

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xBX0Z1MkDyQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="854" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ePxJJb7vSSg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>


I'll admit, it's not that funny on it's face. But the progressive online media has had some fun with it and it's their parody sketches/editing, as well as the people dressing up like robots, later to be attacked by Rubio supporters, that amused me.

 

[GoIrish41]

I heard this story and I don't get why it is a story....

We expect candidates to "get their message out", and we expect that message to be consistent no matter the audience. So wouldn't it make sense that they should be repeating some of the same things over and over? I mean, if that's what their platform is, it shouldn't change from state to state.

He answered four questions within the first 15 minutes of the debate the same exact line. I mean, word for word. Christie made a case all week that Rubio is nothing but a guy who has memorized 20 second mini-speeches about a few topics and just repeats them over and over. He called him out on this at the beginning of the debate, and Rubio proved him right by robotically repeating the same memorized lines. In each case, Christie pointed it out ... "and there it is, the Washington sound bite." The accusation was that he didn't have any real substantive, deep rooted policies that he felt passionate about and only had bumper sticker rhetoric that he practiced in front of a mirror for 12 hours leading up to the debate. He made Rubio look like an idiot, and because he was right about his observation, Rubio helped him do it. Getting your message out is one thing, but repeating rehearsed lines word for word in the span of 10 or 15 minutes portrays a candidate who doesn't have any real passion or insight on a given topic, only talking points. Christie destroyed Rubio with the attack, and I think its clear that he lost votes as a result. Even Rubio admitted he did poorly in the debate and it cost him in NH. And now, everyone will be listening carefully to his answers to see if he continues the practice or he adjusts to make it look like he is something more than a character actor repeating his lines, or if he has any true depth and mastery over the information that is coming out of his mouth. If he doesn't adjust, Christie's attack will continue to hurt Rubio even though Christie is no longer in the race.

 

[kmoose]

Did you watch the debate? I agree with you on substance, but it was a bad look for Rubio. Within the debate, he repeated the exact same words verbatim several times. He just got "stuck" in a bit of a mental block, but it was very off-putting.

No. I didn't watch the debate. The story I saw pieced together a bunch of clips of different campaign stops, highlighting the similarity of the phrasing used. If that's his message, then they should be highlighting that he hasn't been changing it to suit the audience.

It is in Rubio's best interest, obviously, to make his message something other than boring and rote. However, you as a voter also have an obligation to look past the delivery and focus on the message. I'm not saying that people should agree with his message; but whining about his delivery being "off-putting" is simply people being lazy voters who expect every candidate to tailor their language to something that resonates with them, thereby abdicating their responsibility and projecting it on to the candidate.

 

[phgreek]

The irony is that it was Chris Christie going after him. Chris Christie, mister "as a former federal prosecuter, it was my job to put terrorists in jail after 9/11" ad nauseam.

It's a shame that the discussion has been about the Rubio repeating himself and not about the substance of what he's saying. There's a fundamental rift in the Republican party about how to address Obama's agenda. Christie's argument is that Obama is an incompetent boob whose policies have failed because he's poor at "getting the job done" when it comes to implementing them. The key example there would be the healthcare.gov launch debacle. Rubio's point is that Obama is far from clueless. Rather, he knows exactly what he's doing and the reasons his policies have been unsuccessful is because they're bad policies that would have blown up even if the greatest administrator in the world was in charge of rolling them out. That's an important distinction when it comes to weighing which of these candidates will really take the country in a new direction versus simply trying to manage the country more efficiently in the same direction it's been going.


Did you watch the debate? I agree with you on substance, but it was a bad look for Rubio. Within the debate, he repeated the exact same words verbatim several times. He just got "stuck" in a bit of a mental block, but it was very off-putting.

...particularly AFTER Christie already pointed it out. I agree, the message needs to be the same, and that Rubio makes a very important distinction. Mr. Obama has been straight forward about his objectives. Plus, it is also off putting to centrists to simply dismiss Obama as a dumb ass, and it gives a better platform to discuss what and how Rubio would change things if he presents Mr. Obama as a deliberate person and not a boob. I'm on the fence about Mr. Obama's administrative skills, and I don't think he is a good negotiator internally or externally, but he isn't a dumb ass, so Rubio has it right. But sometimes you come off better being smooth and WRONG...thus the last 7 years.

 

[wizards8507]

[/B]...particularly AFTER Christie already pointed it out. I agree, the message needs to be the same, and that Rubio makes a very important distinction. Mr. Obama has been straight forward about his objectives. Plus, it is also off putting to centrists to simply dismiss Obama as a dumb ass, and it gives a better platform to discuss what and how Rubio would change things if he presents Mr. Obama as a deliberate person and not a boob. I'm on the fence about Mr. Obama's administrative skills, and I don't think he is a good negotiator internally or externally, but he isn't a dumb ass, so Rubio has it right. But sometimes you come off better being smooth and WRONG...thus the last 7 years.

You don't even have to be particularly smooth in the world of Trump.