2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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Goldedommer44

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I can only speak for myself but I just do not believe that the Federal government should be involved with welfare or social services. I have no problem with states and private charities providing these services. I personally donate monthly to a private charity that provides services to unwed mothers and I would gladly give more if the federal government would cut all social service spending and my federal tax bill would drop accordingly. If it is argued that the Federal government simply collects the tax and returns it to the states as grants, I would say cut out the "middleman" to free up funds to be spent directly on actual services.

The amount of money that comes out of your check for social services is nothing compared to Corporate welfare. Here is an article talks about just that. Food Stamps Are Affordable; Corporate Welfare Is Not

Is the government did not help local no profits could not keep up with the demand. They are already having a hard enough time keeping up currently while it is still in place .
 

Whiskeyjack

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Regarding the debate over Muslim immigrants, here's an article from The Week's Michael Brendan Dougherty titled "The necessary task of integrating Islam within the West":

In what is both a reflection and an amplification of rising anti-Muslim sentiment in this country, Donald Trump has called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States "until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."

Trump's xenophobic statement and the popular fears it reflects have to be addressed intelligently and forcefully. We should begin addressing them by admitting that there are unique challenges with integrating Muslims and Islam itself into polities shaped by Western liberalism. But it is a task that has to be done. It cannot be avoided even by the most extreme restrictions on immigration or travel, because Muslims are our already our neighbors. And in an age of decentralized authority and instant digital communication, Islam will remain a way of life available to anyone in the West.

A particularly intense example of America's Trumpian Islamophobia was captured at a town meeting in Virginia over plans to build a mosque. A man erupted at a Muslim who was speaking, "Every Muslim is a terrorist, period." Others at the meeting applauded the erupting man for saying that he didn't want Islam's "death cult" in his town.

That is ignorant and wrong. But if you will, consider a more thoughtful and advanced version of this argument: The Prophet Muhammad was a military leader and conqueror, a militant posture that shapes Islam to this day. The Grand Ayatollah was telling the truth when he said "Islam is politics or it is nothing." Osama bin Laden's fatwa against America was totally consistent with the texts and spirit of early Islam. Today's millions upon millions of non-violent Muslims could reasonably be described as lax Muslims.

It's easy enough to dismiss that argument as bigoted, too, and to note that it fails to recognize the very real variety within Islam. At the same time, we should recognize that our culture entertains similarly structured arguments against more familiar religions.

People argue that Christianity is inherently sexist. Or that Catholicism's view of authority makes it resistant to civil law. We see and sometimes nurture the same preening, vandal spirit of the "Draw Muhammad day" when we call a condom-portrait of Pope Benedict art. Some of the right-wing criticisms of Islam or the customs of immigrants from Islamic countries can have a distinctively secularist flavor, for instance, their fear about the spread of female genital mutilation. It's possible that the discomfort some progressives have with criticizing Islam itself forcefully would disappear if Muslims seemed like a less vulnerable minority than they are. How do we get there?

Some say that today's anxiety around Muslim immigration is as irrational as previous fears about integrating immigrant Catholics in American life. That's too glib. While even the highest authorities in Catholicism of the 19th century did occasionally declare itself hostile to liberal society, the truth is that liberalism itself was shaped by its Christian inheritance. Islam's tensions with the West run much deeper than Catholicism's tensions with America ever did. Islam differs in important ways from Judaism and Christianity. There is Islam's emphasis on jurisprudence over theology. And Islam's form of triumphalism, which has more difficulty reconciling itself to a world in which Islamic ideas are marginal.

But Western Christians or secular people should not presume to tell Muslims that true Islam is violent. It is easy to find quietist strains of Islam that impress with their piety and devotion to the texts that are at the heart of Islam. A number of scholars and Islamic commentators, from Muhammad Abduh to Fazlur Rahman, have preached an Islam that is in creative tension with the West, rather than outright conflict.

Besides, America's liberal bargain, more than Europe's, is capacious and could accommodate a variety of expressions of Islam, just as it accommodates a variety of other religions, some of which build communities that strike us as illiberal. The challenges this represents may be truly awkward, but they are nonetheless necessary.

Consider the community of Samtar Hasidic Jews at Kiryas Joel in Monroe, New York, which has historically fallen within my own Congressional district. This community of Jews sees huge increases of its population because of its incredible fertility rate and welcome attitude to its own co-religionists. Nearly 90 percent of the community speaks Yiddish at home. Nearly half cannot speak English competently. It is widely reported that religious authorities in Kiryas Joel can swing the vote of the town and with their vote, the divided Congressional district in which it sits. Kiryas Joel's residents have an awkward and sometimes legally combative relationship with their Monroe neighbors over planning and development.

There in Kiryas Joel is much of what people claim to fear about Islamic integration, a separate, "unmeltable" group, one that keeps to its own language and folkways. And yet Kiryas Joel's peaceful existence with its neighbors is a testament not only to that community's genius, but the genius of America as well. There is simply no pressing reason for New York to tear up its very generous legal settlement to assimilate Kiryas Joel on its own terms.

Similarly, there is no inherent reason for America to tear up its legal settlement in response to Islam itself. There may be good reasons to limit immigration from Muslim nations. I believe there are. But they are not substantively very different from reasons to limit immigration from any or all nations.

And finally, if the anti-Muslim chauvinists really cannot handle any of the above arguments, the final argument for finding a way to better integrate Muslims should be to prove the superiority of the West itself. Christians, Jews, and other religious minorities have existed within Islamic civilization for over a millennia, not without incident, and not without awkward or painful compromises. If the West is better and stronger than Islamic civilization, it should be able to tolerate religious minorities better than Islamic civilization, too.
 

wizards8507

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Regarding the debate over Muslim immigrants, here's an article from The Week's Michael Brendan Dougherty titled "The necessary task of integrating Islam within the West":
Serious question. What if Nazis had called Naziism a religion?
 

Whiskeyjack

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Serious question. What if Nazis had called Naziism a religion?

I assume the implication here is that the West strains to accommodate Islam only out of some misguided tolerance of "religion", whereas fundamentally incompatible ideologies like fascism receive no such benefit. I'd counter that, unlike Islam, there are not millions of Nazis currently living peaceful lives in the West, nor are there "quietist strains" of Nazism.

Similar to the author, I'm not in favor of open borders. I think we should aggressively screen likely terrorists (young, Arab males with connections to countries in which Salafism is a significant influence) just as Israel has done for years. But that's a far cry from closing the border to Muslim travelers.
 

woolybug25

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I assume the implication here is that the West strains to accommodate Islam only out of some misguided tolerance of "religion", whereas fundamentally incompatible ideologies like fascism receive no such benefit. I'd counter that, unlike Islam, there are not millions of Nazis currently living peaceful lives in the West, nor are there "quietist strains" of Nazism.

Similar to the author, I'm not in favor of open borders. I think we should aggressively screen likely terrorists (young, Arab males with connections to countries in which Salafism is a significant influence) just as Israel has done for years. But that's a far cry from closing the border to Muslim travelers.

Well said, Whiskey.:cheers:
 

yankeehater

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I assume the implication here is that the West strains to accommodate Islam only out of some misguided tolerance of "religion", whereas fundamentally incompatible ideologies like fascism receive no such benefit. I'd counter that, unlike Islam, there are not millions of Nazis currently living peaceful lives in the West, nor are there "quietist strains" of Nazism.

Similar to the author, I'm not in favor of open borders. I think we should aggressively screen likely terrorists (young, Arab males with connections to countries in which Salafism is a significant influence) just as Israel has done for years. But that's a far cry from closing the border to Muslim travelers.

Whiskey....then you agree with Trump for the most part. His closing of the border is only temporary until "they figure it out." The problem that most people see is that there have been several high ranking officials, even before San Bernardino, from the FBI and other agencies whether to the media or while testifying saying the screening processes in place are not working. They have no idea for the most part who is coming into this country. I even saw one go on CNN, which is a national show, right after Paris and say we should know our States gun and carry laws because the Federal and local authorities will not get there in time to help you. Then San Berdu happens. I might agree that Trump might be playing on peoples fears, but a temporary close in not insane or unreasonable and peoples fears are real. I have seen polls that most Americans agree with Trump. One showed roughly over 40% of Dems, over 50% of Independents and over 70% of Republicans. I believe one of the most important roles of a Gov't is to protect their citizens and I know I personally am not feeling comfortable from what they are currently telling us.
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

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I assume the implication here is that the West strains to accommodate Islam only out of some misguided tolerance of "religion", whereas fundamentally incompatible ideologies like fascism receive no such benefit. I'd counter that, unlike Islam, there are not millions of Nazis currently living peaceful lives in the West, nor are there "quietist strains" of Nazism.

Similar to the author, I'm not in favor of open borders. I think we should aggressively screen likely terrorists (young, Arab males with connections to countries in which Salafism is a significant influence) just as Israel has done for years. But that's a far cry from closing the border to Muslim travelers.

One of the better retorts I've seen in a while.
 

wizards8507

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Similar to the author, I'm not in favor of open borders. I think we should aggressively screen likely terrorists (young, Arab males with connections to countries in which Salafism is a significant influence) just as Israel has done for years. But that's a far cry from closing the border to Muslim travelers.
Then you agree with Trump, albeit with more tact and eloquence.
 

T Town Tommy

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Whiskey....then you agree with Trump for the most part. His closing of the border is only temporary until "they figure it out." The problem that most people see is that there have been several high ranking officials, even before San Bernardino, from the FBI and other agencies whether to the media or while testifying saying the screening processes in place are not working. They have no idea for the most part who is coming into this country. I even saw one go on CNN, which is a national show, right after Paris and say we should know our States gun and carry laws because the Federal and local authorities will not get there in time to help you. Then San Berdu happens. I might agree that Trump might be playing on peoples fears, but a temporary close in not insane or unreasonable and peoples fears are real. I have seen polls that most Americans agree with Trump. One showed roughly over 40% of Dems, over 50% of Independents and over 70% of Republicans. I believe one of the most important roles of a Gov't is to protect their citizens and I know I personally am not feeling comfortable from what they are currently telling us.

It has already been discussed at length the limitations our government has to screen people. Just today it has been reported that the female terrorist involved in the San Bernardino attack had been radicalized years ago but passed every interview and check when trying to come to the US. And the decision to allow her in to our country took less than one day to approve. And the reason given for her approval was that there were no red flags found in the process. Just how well did anyone really look? Our government has found out all of this information now... why did they not find some of it before then? Because they don't have a coherent vetting process. And yet we have those that want to flood our country with individuals that we can not properly vet, usually with no assistance from their native countries, intelligence agencies, etc. That amazes me... and scares me even more.


San Bernardino: Farook believed tied to jihadist recruiter - CNN.com


If Malik had already radicalized years ago, how did she get the go-ahead to immigrate to the United States in 2014?

A senior State Department official told CNN on Wednesday that Malik was not asked about jihadist leanings when a U.S. consular official interviewed her in Pakistan for her fiancee visa application last year. That's because no red flags were found in the Department of Homeland Security application that was submitted and checked before the interview, the official said.

The consular officer who did the interview reported that Malik was able to answer enough questions about Farook to prove that she knew him well and that they had a personal relationship, a main focus of the consular interview process, according to two senior State Department officials.

After the interview, Malik passed two other security database checks before her visa was adjudicated. Records show the visa was decided on the day after the interview: May 23, 2014. Malik came to the United States on July 27 of that year. According to California marriage records, she married Farook just one month later.
 

BleedBlueGold

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Whiskeyjack

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Whiskey....then you agree with Trump for the most part. His closing of the border is only temporary until "they figure it out."

Then you agree with Trump, albeit with more tact and eloquence.

From Trump's website:

Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on.

That's a blanket refusal to allow any Muslims into the country for an indefinite period of time. Women, children and elderly people fleeing violence (which we unleashed) in the Middle East, Muslim Americans attempting to return from visiting family members in Europe, Muslim academics who teach at American Universities, etc. Suffice it to say, I don't agree with Trump.

If the relevant government agencies are so incompetent or hamstrung by political correctness that they can't even manage to effectively screen the very narrow profile under which 99.9% of radical Islamic terrorists fall, then the Obama administration deserves to be ruthlessly criticized for such a basic failure of governance; but instead, Trump the proto-fascist has decided to demonize the 1.7 billion Muslims globally as an undifferentiated threat to national security.
 
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wizards8507

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From Trump's website:

That's a blanket refusal to allow any Muslims into the country for an indefinite period of time. Women, children and elderly people fleeing violence (which we unleashed) in the Middle East, Muslim Americans attempting to return from visiting family members in Europe, Muslim academics who teach at American Universities, etc. Suffice it to say, I don't agree with Trump.

If the relevant government agencies are so incompetent or hamstrung by political correctness that they can't even manage to aggressively screen the very narrow profile under which 99.9% of radical Islamic terrorists fall, then the Obama administration deserves to be ruthlessly criticized for such a basic failure of governance; but instead, Trump the proto-fascist has decided to demonize the 1.7 billion global Muslims as an undifferentiated threat to national security.
Read The Art of the Deal. In any negotiation, open with hyperbole and bombast, then scale back so you look reasonable and compromising. Trump isn't proposing actual policy, he's just moving the conversation where it needs to be. I'd wager his "landing point" is exactly what you describe.

(I'm not a Trump supporter by any stretch. But I absolutely love what he's teaching Republican candidates.)
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Read The Art of the Deal. In any negotiation, open with hyperbole and bombast, then scale back so you look reasonable and compromising. Trump isn't proposing actual policy, he's just moving the conversation where it needs to be. I'd wager his "landing point" is exactly what you describe.

(I'm not a Trump supporter by any stretch. But I absolutely love what he's teaching Republican candidates.)
He isn't negotiating shit, he hasn't won the Presidency. He's been a demogogue taking advantage of the monstrous electorate that two decades of delusional AM radio and Fox News have created.
 

pkt77242

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Read The Art of the Deal. In any negotiation, open with hyperbole and bombast, then scale back so you look reasonable and compromising. Trump isn't proposing actual policy, he's just moving the conversation where it needs to be. I'd wager his "landing point" is exactly what you describe.

(I'm not a Trump supporter by any stretch. But I absolutely love what he's teaching Republican candidates.)

I 100% disagree with you. We should be having an intelligent discussion about what is happening in this world and how we should handle it. Trump is dragging the discussion down into the gutter. He is embodies what is wrong with politics in the U.S.
 

T Town Tommy

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He isn't negotiating shit, he hasn't won the Presidency. He's been a demogogue taking advantage of the monstrous electorate that two decades of delusional AM radio and Fox News have created.

So.. what has the overwhelming number of liberal media outlets been doing the last two decades? For the record, I wouldn't vote for Trump for any reason. But blaming the current state of affairs in this country on Fox News and AM radio is as laughable as Trump's tirades.
 

wizards8507

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I 100% disagree with you. We should be having an intelligent discussion about what is happening in this world and how we should handle it. Trump is dragging the discussion down into the gutter. He is embodies what is wrong with politics in the U.S.
When I say "I like what Trump is teaching Republican candidates," I'm not talking about his policy positions. I'm talking about the way he doesn't play the media's game. That's the reason he has support. It's not that people care about what he's saying, they just like that he's saying that with a giant middle finger in the air. We live in a media landscape where Willard Mitt "Moderate Vanilla on Blue-State White Bread" Romney was painted as a horrifying right-wing monster. Trump is proving that you don't need to try to play paddy-cake with a media that hates you to get support, especially when that media is going to turn you into a monster no matter what you say.

So.. what has the overwhelming number of liberal media outlets been doing the last two decades? For the record, I wouldn't vote for Trump for any reason. But blaming the current state of affairs in this country on Fox News and AM radio is as laughable as Trump's tirades.
Word.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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So.. what has the overwhelming number of liberal media outlets been doing the last two decades?

I'll take "being more in line with the rest of the developed world," for $1000, T Town.

For the record, I wouldn't vote for Trump for any reason. But blaming the current state of affairs in this country on Fox News and AM radio is as laughable as Trump's tirades.

I spent many years trying to make excuses for the Republican electorate but I've come to terms with the reality that AM radio and Fox News are doing a tremendous disservice to our country by legitimizing and then monetizing the backward views many in that electorate hold.
 

wizards8507

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I spent many years trying to make excuses for the Republican electorate but I've come to terms with the reality that AM radio and Fox News are doing a tremendous disservice to our country by legitimizing and then monetizing the backward views many in that electorate hold.
There's more intellectual heft in five pages of a Mark Levin book than in three months of programming on MSNBC.
 

pkt77242

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When I say "I like what Trump is teaching Republican candidates," I'm not talking about his policy positions. I'm talking about the way he doesn't play the media's game. That's the reason he has support. It's not that people care about what he's saying, they just like that he's saying that with a giant middle finger in the air. We live in a media landscape where Willard Mitt "Moderate Vanilla on Blue-State White Bread" Romney was painted as a horrifying right-wing monster. Trump is proving that you don't need to try to play paddy-cake with a media that hates you to get support, especially when that media is going to turn you into a monster no matter what you say.


Word.

Um, not really true. There are a lot of people who really do like what he is saying and that is the truly scary part about it. He has riled up a significant minority of the population who is xenophobic.

Words matter. People on here blamed Obama for the increase of attacks on cops. If someone attacks an Muslim in the U.S. for no reason, are you going to blame Trump? Do you think that some of the hateful speech thrown around by the right might have been the reason for the guy to attack Planned Parenthood? Words matter.

*I am not saying that you like what he says but that there is a significant minority of people who do.
 

woolybug25

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When I say "I like what Trump is teaching Republican candidates," I'm not talking about his policy positions. I'm talking about the way he doesn't play the media's game. That's the reason he has support. It's not that people care about what he's saying, they just like that he's saying that with a giant middle finger in the air. We live in a media landscape where Willard Mitt "Moderate Vanilla on Blue-State White Bread" Romney was painted as a horrifying right-wing monster. Trump is proving that you don't need to try to play paddy-cake with a media that hates you to get support, especially when that media is going to turn you into a monster no matter what you say.

Can you imagine a normal candidate really doing what Trump does?

Rubio insinuating a debate moderator is on the rag?

Kasich calling a female candidate's face ugly?

Christie saying that he would ban all muslims?

Cruz saying that he would round up all mexicans?

Jeb saying that McCain isn't a war hero?

I could go on and on. If he is teaching them a "playbook", then it's a playbook on how to get yourself killed in an election. There aren't many people, especially politicians, that can get away with saying the crazy @ss stuff he does and get away with it. He's a rare bird in that respect, and I don't know how many people could thrive like him in that environment.
 
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C

Cackalacky

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I 100% disagree with you. We should be having an intelligent discussion about what is happening in this world and how we should handle it. Trump is dragging the discussion down into the gutter. He is embodies what is wrong with politics in the U.S.

giphy.gif
 

Whiskeyjack

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Read The Art of the Deal. In any negotiation, open with hyperbole and bombast, then scale back so you look reasonable and compromising. Trump isn't proposing actual policy, he's just moving the conversation where it needs to be. I'd wager his "landing point" is exactly what you describe.

Trump as Batman ("not the candidate we deserve, but the one we need") gives him far too much credit. The guy's a genius at media manipulation and self-promotion, but he's also a completely unprincipled narcissist. He's not "playing the bad guy" to drag the national narrative in a more healthy direction.

(I'm not a Trump supporter by any stretch. But I absolutely love what he's teaching Republican candidates.)

I can empathize with that sentiment. Trump has been a nightmare for the GOP, and no one bears more blame for his current popularity than the Republicans' failure to address longstanding concerns of their own coalition. But let's not pretend Trump's candidacy is a good omen for this country.

He isn't negotiating shit, he hasn't won the Presidency. He's been a demogogue taking advantage of the monstrous electorate that two decades of delusional AM radio and Fox News have created.

Both major parties have consistently supported neo-liberal economic policies (open borders, globalization, etc.) over the last several decades. Those policies have had a seriously negative impact on a growing swathe of American voters whose interests aren't represented in DC at all. Their support for Trump may be nothing more than a big middle finger to the elites who run our country, but attempting to write them off as racist xenophobes isn't fair either.
 
B

Buster Bluth

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Their support for Trump may be nothing more than a big middle finger to the elites who run our country, but attempting to write them off as racist xenophobes isn't fair either.

And yet I can go into work and the majority of people there support Trump and will mutter slurs about Mexicans and mention how we should just "bomb them Muslims and let God sort em out."

My frustration with conservative media is that they legitimize it by presenting an outlandish view that does us all a disservice.

I can see the populist roots in Trump's campaign as a big "fuck you" to DC. I even somewhat support that. But his recent comments are just picking the fruit that conservative media fertilizes every day.
 

wizards8507

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Can you imagine a normal candidate really doing what Trump does?

Rubio insinuating a debate moderator is on the rag?

Kasich calling a female candidate's face ugly?

Christie saying that he would ban all muslims?

Cruz saying that he would round up all mexicans?

Jeb saying that McCain isn't a war hero?

I could go on and on. If he is teaching them a "playbook", then it's a playbook on how to get yourself killed in an election. There aren't many people, especially politicians, that can get away with saying the crazy @ss stuff he does and get away with it.
Try to see the nuance here. I am not suggesting that a "normal" candidate should say the things that Trump says, but they can in should say sane person things that may not be politically correct. See Whiskey's position on immigration screenings. Everything Whiskey articulated would have been labeled right-wing extremism in a pre-Trump world of discourse. The fact is, Trump isn't getting killed. He's leading. The Karl Rove consultant wing of the Republican party things a Republican candidate cannot win without the support of the liberal media. The lesson to be learned from Trump is that you can still build a coalition without the media's support and you're not going to get it anyways, so stop trying.

To your specific points:

Trump didn't say Megyn Kelly was on the rag.

Cary Fiorina does have a resting bitch face.

Christie says things much scarier than banning Muslims.

Rounding up illegal immigrants is no worse than giving speeding tickets to all people driving 90 in a 65

John McCain is a war hero. But he's also an idiot.

I can see the populist roots in Trump's campaign as a big "fuck you" to DC. I even somewhat support that. But his recent comments are just picking the fruit that conservative media fertilizes every day.
Maybe you listen to different conservative media than I do. Mark Levin is a constitutional scholar who hates Trump. His signature issue is an Article Five Convention of the States. I'm pretty sure Donald Trump doesn't even know what Article Five says. Glenn Beck has been the most open in his hatred of Trump, calling into question his personal character and fitness to lead long before even the first controversial comment. Rush hasn't openly criticized Trump (I believe they're personal friends) but has never said anything along the lines of "ban all Muslims."

The guy's a genius at media manipulation and self-promotion, but he's also a completely unprincipled narcissist.
Isn't that most of them, though? I'm pretty sure there are a total of two-and-a-half candidates on that debate state who have even a cursory understanding of the Constitution.
 
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pkt77242

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Trump as Batman ("not the candidate we deserve, but the one we need") gives him far too much credit. The guy's a genius at media manipulation and self-promotion, but he's also a completely unprincipled narcissist. He's not "playing the bad guy" to drag the national narrative in a more healthy direction.



I can empathize with that sentiment. Trump has been a nightmare for the GOP, and no one bears more blame for his current popularity than the Republicans' failure to address longstanding concerns of their own coalition. But let's not pretend Trump's candidacy is a good omen for this country.



Both major parties have consistently supported neo-liberal economic policies (open borders, globalization, etc.) over the last several decades. Those policies have had a seriously negative impact on a growing swathe of American voters whose interests aren't represented in DC at all. Their support for Trump may be nothing more than a big middle finger to the elites who run our country, but attempting to write them off as racist xenophobes isn't fair either.

I think that you are partially right.
I think he has picked up the support of both people who want to give the middle finger to D.C. and people (not necessarily the same people) who are xenophobes.
 
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