ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Whiskeyjack]

...and LSU loses to Arkansas, Ole Miss or A&M and there goes Bama's resume?

Don't question the narrative. Apparently ND fans have to reflexively propagate the SEC circle jerk, too.

 

[gkIrish]

Teams that control their own destiny IMO:

Definitely:
OSU/MSU/Iowa
Bama/Florida
Baylor/Oklahoma St.
Clemson

Arguable:
ND
Stanford/Utah
Oklahoma
LSU

Until the top group drops down to 3 teams, I will not feel good at all even if we win out.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I don't.

OU still has to play Baylor, TCU, and OKST. If they run through that and finish with one loss, they'll be way up in the rankings. If Stanford loses prior to playing ND, they'll drop in the rankings and suddenly a win over Stanford may not be enough to catapult ND over a team like OU who just rattled off three wins against Top 15 teams.

If OU finishes with one loss but Stanford continues to win, you're looking at a potential Top 5 matchup (give or take) in ND vs Stanford. A win there puts ND in the driver seat as SOS will be better, loss will be better, the Texas game favors ND, etc.

That's why I think both things needs to happen. Again, I think Stanford holds the golden ticket for ND's trip to the playoffs.

 

[tussin]

We can all agree that Bama is a really good team, but let's not forget that they already lost to a crappy Ole Miss team, almost lost to a crappy Vols team, and, until this week, their best win was against a overvalued B1G team with no quality wins. It's not a foregone conclusion that they are just going to waltz through the rest of their schedule.

 

[BobbyMac]

You say that so matter of fact. MSU has been underrated good all year and is catching Bama at the perfect time after the LSU game. I give them a 25% chance at pulling an upset.

Don't question the narrative. Apparently ND fans have to reflexively propagate the SEC circle jerk, too.

Perfect timing Whiskey...

Where do you see FEI's projected win % for Bama v. Miss St? Do you think it will be higher than 75%

 

[BobbyMac]

Teams that control their own destiny IMO:

Definitely:
OSU/MSU/Iowa
Bama/Florida
Baylor/Oklahoma St.
Clemson

Arguable:
ND
Stanford/Utah
Oklahoma
LSU

Until the top group drops down to 3 teams, I will not feel good at all even if we win out.

Ummm... If you have have 4 columns of "Definites"... There are no arguables.

.

 

[gkIrish]

Ummm... If you have have 4 columns of "Definites"... There are no arguables.

.

The "Arguables" are the teams that would arguably get in if one of the Definites dropped out. Sorry I should have made that more clear.

If, say, Clemson lost twice, it's not clear which of the "Arguables" would get in if they win out. So it's not clear if they control their own destiny in any way.

 

[tussin]

Where do you see FEI's projected win % for Bama v. Miss St? Do you think it will be higher than 75%

I haven't seen it. I bet it's 70-80%.

 

[ulukinatme]

Ummm... If you have have 4 columns of "Definites"... There are no arguables.

.

I see what you're saying, but I assume what gkIrish meant was if one team from each of those rows wins out, then the Top 4 spots are filled and we're on the outside looking in. I think the SEC and B1G spots are probably definites already, they just have to decide on a team, but I guess chaos could ensue. Everything really depends on what happens in the Big 12 in the coming weeks.

 

[wizards8507]

The problem with the Big 12 for us is timing. They play on December 5, we don't. Even if we're ahead after Stanford, they could jump us that week.

 

[Luckylucci]

Navy destroying Memphis sure helps ND's resume. I thought this was pretty interesting.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Perfect timing Whiskey...

Where do you see FEI's projected win % for Bama v. Miss St? Do you think it will be higher than 75%

I don't think Fremeau projects out win probabilities further than next week. Here were his projections from Week 10. 'Bama's +.055 advantage in FEI led the model to project a 61% chance for 'Bama to win by 3.

Had 'Bama played MSU last Saturday instead, the FEI disparity would have been 0.084. The model would have probably been a bit more confident in projecting a victory for 'Bama, but not ~75%.

 

[BobbyMac]

The "Arguables" are the teams that would arguably get in if one of the Definites dropped out. Sorry I should have made that more clear.

If, say, Clemson lost twice, it's not clear which of the "Arguables" would get in if they win out. So it's not clear if they control their own destiny.

The B1G teams control their destiny.

The Big-12 teams control their destiny

Clemson controls it's destiny.

Technically, Bama and Florida do not control their destiny, the committee does because:

If Stanford wins out completely dominating Oregon, Cal, ND and a one loss Utah they can "argue" with the SEC, especially if Florida is the champ. I believe Bama gets in over them 100% but it's still in the committee's hands.


.

 

[gkIrish]

The B1G teams control their destiny.

The Big-12 teams control their destiny

Clemson controls it's destiny.

Technically, Bama and Florida do not control their destiny, the committee does because:

If Stanford wins out completely dominating Oregon, Cal, ND and a one loss Utah they can "argue" with the SEC, especially if Florida is the champ. I believe Bama gets in over them 100% but it's still in the committee's hands.

I do not agree with that at all. The Pac-12 champ is not jumping a 1 loss SEC champion under any circumstances whatsoever.

 

[koonja]

GKIrish is the board's Eeyore this year, lol.

 

[BobbyMac]

I don't think Fremeau projects out win probabilities further than next week. Here were his projections from Week 10. 'Bama's +.055 advantage in FEI led the model to project a 61% chance for 'Bama to win by 3.

Had 'Bama played MSU last Saturday instead, the FEI disparity would have been 0.084. The model would have probably been a bit more confident in projecting a victory for 'Bama, but not ~75%.

Well Bama is at MSU this weekend so we will know the week 11 FEI projections tomorrow or is it Wednesday?

I'd personally think it's a pick em game but I'll guess the FEI WP is 71%

.

 

[BobbyMac]

I do not agree with that at all. The Pac-12 champ is not jumping a 1 loss SEC champion under any circumstances whatsoever.

Completely disagree. Stanford hangs 50 burger blowouts the next 4 games, they can be the choice above Florida. I think Bama it's 99.999% in if they win out. I'd say 100% but it's simply not a mathematical fact.

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[gkIrish]

GKIrish is the board's Eeyore this year, lol.

 

[irishfan]

GKIrish is the board's Eeyore this year, lol.

He's right though.

(not a shot at you) It's better than everyone saying to relax and we'll be in if we go 11-1. If it were that simple, two 11-1 teams wouldn't have been shut out last season.

TCU last year finished 6th and had wins over #11 and #25 with a very, very close road loss at #5. That's going to be a pretty close profile to what we will have to end this year. Our SOS will be stronger hopefully, but that's also dependent on Stanford winning the PAC-12, Temple/Navy continuing to win, and USC finishing ranked. Would it shock anyone if we go 11-1 and only Stanford and Navy are ranked?

 

[Irish Insanity]

The problem with the Big 12 for us is timing. They play on December 5, we don't. Even if we're ahead after Stanford, they could jump us that week.

And their schedules these next 2 games are tougher.

 

[texbender]

just need to keep winning. if we go 11-1 and don't get in, go win the 12th. all you can do is play and win. after that, it's out of your control.

 

[irish4ever]

My worry these next 2 games for us is that our schedule is soft. Meanwhile OU, TCU, Baylor, and OK St all play each other.

Irish win out, at 11-1, I feel they'll make it in over any 11-1 big-12 team. Therefore, root for cannibalization in the big-12 ... they just need to beat up each other here in Nov. With TCU and OU each with a loss, the focus has to be on Okl St. (@ ISU, vs. Baylor, vs. OU) and Baylor (vs OU, @ Okl St., @TCU and vs Texas).

Gotta be a Sooner fan this w/e against Baylor, then a Baylor fan against Okl St. next w/e. I'd love to see Texas come thru the last game of the year against Baylor, but not likely to happen being on the road and all.

 

[gkIrish]

What kind of shape are College Football Playoff contenders in?

So you don't have to click on an ESPN article, it basically says that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St., Baylor and Oklahoma St. are the only teams that control their own destiny. ND is in "good shape" according to the article.

The Irish are right on the selection committee's bubble, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them crack the top four this week. Their only loss is a close one on the road to No. 1-ranked Clemson, and the win over Navy now looks even better after the Midshipmen manhandled Memphis. If Notre Dame wins out -- especially if Stanford goes on to win the Pac-12 -- the Irish have a great chance to be in the playoff. It will be tough to crack the top four, though, if the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC all produce undefeated conference champions and a one-loss Alabama wins the SEC.

 

[mick2]

so who should we root for this week?

OU over BAY
MISS ST over BAMA
ILL over OSU

anyone else besides the obvious root for our opponents?

 

[irishfan]

so who should we root for this week?

OU over BAY
MISS ST over BAMA
ILL over OSU

anyone else besides the obvious root for our opponents?

Oklahoma State is at Iowa State. They're favored by 14, but crazier things have happened. Utah losing to Arizona would be nice as well. We should have them beat if it came down to it, but we could be in trouble if Utah goes 12-1 and beats Stanford in the Conference Championship by a larger margin than us.

Also, I assume USC won't be in the committee's Top-25 tonight, but they are #26 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, so any teams ranked 20-25 losing this week would be nice to get them ranked by next week.

 

[gkIrish]

so who should we root for this week?

OU over BAY
MISS ST over BAMA
ILL over OSU

anyone else besides the obvious root for our opponents?

Maryland, South Carolina, Indiana, Iowa St., Arkansas (who I think may actually be able to beat LSU), and Minnesota are all teams we should root for.

 

[dublinirish]

Arky beat LSU last year and held Fornette to 9 yard on 5 carries lol, they might repeat

 

[texbender]

Ned OU to beat Baylor, but Baylor still has OSU and TCU and Texas.

 

[irishfan]

Maryland, South Carolina, Indiana, Iowa St., Arkansas (who I think may actually be able to beat LSU), and Minnesota are all teams we should root for.

Why Indiana? If anything, wouldn't Michigan going 10-2 and winning their division over OSU be good for us? Feel like the committee would try and sneak in a 12-1 OSU regardless of a late-season loss.

 

[dublinirish]

Why Indiana? If anything, wouldn't Michigan going 10-2 and winning their division over OSU be good for us? Feel like the committee would try and sneak in a 12-1 OSU regardless of a late-season loss.

SCUM wins they go to the title game vs Iowa (likely) no?