ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[NDhoosier]

I see us getting in over a 1 loss ACC champion. If it is Florida State, they lost to a team we crushed; our loss is better. If it is Clemson, it will be later in the season which is never good for the voters and our loss was by 2 on the road with a chance to win in a monsoon. You cannot really ask for a better loss (when it comes to the voters).

 

[gkIrish]

I see us getting in over a 1 loss ACC champion. If it is Florida State, they lost to a team we crushed; our loss is better. If it is Clemson, it will be later in the season which is never good for the voters and our loss was by 2 on the road with a chance to win in a monsoon. You cannot really ask for a better loss (when it comes to the voters).

We beat Georgia Tech by 8. Although we know we crushed them, the committee will just see that as an 8 point win at home.

And what if FSU destroys Clemson?

 

[Blaise]

We beat Georgia Tech by 8. Although we know we crushed them, the committee will just see that as an 8 point win at home.

And what if FSU destroys Clemson?

Agreed.. Best case to me is Clemson to win out til acc title game and then lose there... If ND beat a top 7 Stanford team, and Clem loses to a less than team, it will be fresh in minds and ND will get the nod

 

[Irishcop]

If ND finishes 11-1 does anyone think the committee will take into account all the season ending injuries ND had early in the season and still finished 11-1. Or does that not really matter?

 

[RDU Irish]

They only make excuses for SEC teams and pOSU. Wasn't one big reason OSU made it last year the logic of playing so well with a third string QB?

Does anyone think they will take into account the incredible amount of money that would follow ND into the playoffs?

Much like an undefeated Iowa launching into the playoffs with a win over Top 10 MSU or OSU, ND beating a top 10 Stanford to finish the season will carry a lot of weight. There is a crap load of bias toward what ever data is most recent. Not a lot of teams will be able to recover from a loss here on out (LSU is the only one I think can afford to lose one and still control their destiny by winning the SEC CCG).

 

[wizards8507]

If ND finishes 11-1 does anyone think the committee will take into account all the season ending injuries ND had early in the season and still finished 11-1. Or does that not really matter?

It might matter subtly in the back of their minds like "wow, that's impressive when you consider all of those injuries," but I don't think it'll actually be a metric like strength of schedule or common opponents. At best, it'll be part of an "eye test" tiebreaker.

 

[RDU Irish]

We pass the eye test better than 2012, IMO. I haven't heard too many commentators trash on us for lacking elite talent, to the contrary I our talent is well respected and few if any teams are perceived as more talented. I don't think we will get credit for elite back-ups but I also don't think we will be discounted like (we really deserved) in many years past.

 

[wizards8507]

We pass the eye test better than 2012, IMO. I haven't heard too many commentators trash on us for lacking elite talent, to the contrary I our talent is well respected and few if any teams are perceived as more talented. I don't think we will get credit for elite back-ups but I also don't think we will be discounted like (we really deserved) in many years past.

I agree completely. I think any objective observer would have recognized that we were not the best team in the country heading into the championship game with Alabama in 2012. That said, we rightfully earned our place there by winning all of our games. I'm afraid something similar bites us in the ass this year. I think we're a better football team than both Baylor and TCU and we play a stronger schedule, but if either of them goes undefeated, they will have earned the right to play in the playoff ahead of us.

 

[JohnnyJasper]

If ND finishes 11-1 does anyone think the committee will take into account all the season ending injuries ND had early in the season and still finished 11-1. Or does that not really matter?

I don't think they would take it that much into account.
I think there are a number of factors that need to happen for us to even be considered.

Stanford has to win out until our showdown last game of the season.
OSU still has Mich St and Mich. Either way OSU/MSU gets 1 loss.
Clemson has not been as dominate and impressive as their ranking proves and still has to get past FSU.
TCU still has Baylor which awards either of them 1 loss.
And Bama still has LSU which would give 1 of them at least 1 loss.

Long as we meet up with Stanford both at 10-1 we should have a tremendous opportunity of getting the bid for the final four.

Beat Temple.

 

[IrishLax]

We beat Georgia Tech by 8. Although we know we crushed them, the committee will just see that as an 8 point win at home.

And what if FSU destroys Clemson?

This is what sucked about those garbage time TDs. Score should've been 30-7, we handled Georgia Tech like no one else has this year besides Clemson... but our win looks worse than Duke's who was in a 6 point game the entire 4th quarter until scoring a garbage time TD and going for 2.

 

[RDU Irish]

This is what sucked about those garbage time TDs. Score should've been 30-7, we handled Georgia Tech like no one else has this year besides Clemson... but our win looks worse than Duke's who was in a 6 point game the entire 4th quarter until scoring a garbage time TD and going for 2.

I'm sure Condi will understand that nuance, the rest of the bozos probably not. GT is not going to be discounted b/c they knocked off FSU. People were acting like they wouldn't win another game all season after we slobberknocked them. OMM mentioned it a few times, playing ND is a battle that other teams have to recover from as well. Texas and GT are excellent examples.

 

[wizards8507]

I see us getting in over a 1 loss ACC champion. If it is Florida State, they lost to a team we crushed; our loss is better. If it is Clemson, it will be later in the season which is never good for the voters and our loss was by 2 on the road with a chance to win in a monsoon. You cannot really ask for a better loss (when it comes to the voters).

Absolutely ZERO chance we get in over a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson, and it would frankly be an outrage if we did. Yes, their loss would be later in the season so we might temporarily jump them, but they'd immediately re-jump us after the ACC championship game.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Absolutely ZERO chance we get in over a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson, and it would frankly be an outrage if we did. Yes, their loss would be later in the season so we might temporarily jump them, but they'd immediately re-jump us after the ACC championship game.

Yeah, pretty much agree with this unless Clempson gets blown out in their loss.

 

[wizards8507]

Yeah, pretty much agree with this unless Clempson gets blown out in their loss.

More interesting to me is if Clemson goes into the ACC championship game undefeated, then loses to drop to 12-1. What is a 12-1 conference loser in relation to 11-1 Notre Dame, considering they beat us head-to-head but lost to Pitt, whom we beat.

 

[IrishinSyria]

More interesting to me is if Clemson goes into the ACC championship game undefeated, then loses to drop to 12-1. What is a 12-1 conference loser in relation to 11-1 Notre Dame, considering they beat us head-to-head but lost to Pitt, whom we beat.

That scenario probably leads to what happened to Baylor and TCU last year with the selection committee going with any plausible 4 teams that don't have that problem.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

That scenario probably leads to what happened to Baylor and TCU last year with the selection committee going with any plausible 4 teams that don't have that problem.

Yeah, I think this is correct.

 

[Cackalacky]

More interesting to me is if Clemson goes into the ACC championship game undefeated, then loses to drop to 12-1. What is a 12-1 conference loser in relation to 11-1 Notre Dame, considering they beat us head-to-head but lost to Pitt, whom we beat.

With that spot only in question. I think they get in ahead of us. I can't see how winning one more game does not give them the advantage no matter who they played to get there and considering ND was inactive at the time of the championship game.

 

[RDU Irish]

Absolutely ZERO chance we get in over a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson, and it would frankly be an outrage if we did. Yes, their loss would be later in the season so we might temporarily jump them, but they'd immediately re-jump us after the ACC championship game.

Were you alive in 1993?

I think FSU is better able to recover from their one loss than Clemson - their win over Clemson would be worth more than Clemson's win over FSU (who could turn around and lose to Florida to finish with 3 losses and well out of the top 10). ND would be their signature win and we would all be screaming bloody murder about the monsoon crapshoot, home field advantage - we want a rematch. FSU would have wins over Clemson and Florida to finish the season and jump well in the polls, Duke/Pitt win would be enough to hold tight.

Summary, I think it is much less likely for FSU to beat all three of Clemson, Florida and Pitt/Duke than it is for Clemson to finish undefeated. Neither scenario is a high probability event, IMO.

 

[RDU Irish]

With that spot only in question. I think they get in ahead of us. I can't see how winning one more game does not give them the advantage no matter who they played to get there and considering ND was inactive at the time of the championship game.

That makes zero sense to me. Conference championships are elimination games. You lose, you are out. They have stated how much value they put on championship game winners, they have not yet been presented with a case of the favored teams losing. WTF could justify putting a losing team in over the team that just beat them for a championship? Only case I can see this happening is if the conference gets two teams put in the playoffs because everyone else sucks.

 

[wizards8507]

That makes zero sense to me. Conference championships are elimination games. You lose, you are out.

That's not a rule. If that were a rule, then every single person bitching about ND's schedule being unfair because we don't play in a conference championship game is correct. The CFP is supposed to be the four best teams. Not the four best conference champions, or the four teams whose losses came earliest in the season. Four best teams.

 

[gkIrish]

That's not a rule. If that were a rule, then every single person bitching about ND's schedule being unfair because we don't play in a conference championship game is correct. The CFP is supposed to be the four best teams. Not the four best conference champions, or the four teams whose losses came earliest in the season. Four best teams.

I agree.

If LSU is 12-0 heading into the SEC championship against a 2 loss Florida and the Pac-12, ACC & ND all have 2 losses. LSU will still be a playoff team regardless of the outcome of that game IMO.

 

[Cackalacky]

That makes zero sense to me. Conference championships are elimination games. You lose, you are out. They have stated how much value they put on championship game winners, they have not yet been presented with a case of the favored teams losing. WTF could justify putting a losing team in over the team that just beat them for a championship? Only case I can see this happening is if the conference gets two teams put in the playoffs because everyone else sucks.

No they are not. They can be but that is not a defacto rule. My point was that Pitt may not be ranked high enough to be in the playoff contention but they beat Clemson who is. There is one spot open where ND/ Clemson/ Pitt are fighting for it. I t is entirely plausible that a 12-1 Clemson gets the spot over ND who Clemson beat and Pitt who won but did not rank high enough to get into the top 4.

Clemson, by several measures and models is a very good team offensively and particularly defensively. The way they are playing I could totally see them be #1 at the time of the Championship game (given some things happen of course and also how much the committee likes them over OSU). If they lose, I don't see them falling past #5 under that scenario. I personally still think ND matches up better against them than what we showed but we are here now at this point. Not knowing where Pitt or ND will be prior to the Championship game is a big factor but it won't be as high as Clemson is if they win out.

 

[RDU Irish]

If your stance is that losing early is no different than losing late then we are not going to agree on this, ever.

Flip OSU's schedule last year and let me know if they make it in. Had they lost to Va Tech in the last week before the B1G CCG to make VaTech a 500 bowl eligible team there is no way in hell they were getting in over TCU and Baylor.

 

[tussin]

So at this point it would really be better for us if Clemson nosedives?

 

[RDU Irish]

I agree.

If LSU is 12-0 heading into the SEC championship against a 2 loss Florida and the Pac-12, ACC & ND all have 2 losses. LSU will still be a playoff team regardless of the outcome of that game IMO.

The situation you are describing is the "everyone else sucks" scenario I suggested is necessary to get a CCG loser in the playoffs. I would think the SEC would take two spots in that case as Florida taking a knee would be a bit bogus.

 

[Blaise]

I agree.

If LSU is 12-0 heading into the SEC championship against a 2 loss Florida and the Pac-12, ACC & ND all have 2 losses. LSU will still be a playoff team regardless of the outcome of that game IMO.

Yes, but does a 12-0 losing to Florida get in over a 12-1 conference champ FSU, or 11-1 ND, or 11-1 Big 12 champ?

 

[wizards8507]

So at this point it would really be better for us if Clemson nosedives?

It's a tradeoff between strength of schedule and the ACC's playoff spot. I believe someone will get out of the Big 12 undefeated and the SEC and Big 10 both have an easy road to 12-1. For those reasons, yes. The ACC playoff spot coming up for grabs is "more good" than Clemson losing a bunch would be bad for our SOS.

Best case is Clemson ends with two losses but wins the ACC (preserves SOS but eliminates ACC from playoff). Then:

2. Nosedive (eliminates ACC from playoff at the expense of SOS)
3. Undefeated, wins the ACC (preserves SOS but guarantees ACC playoff spot)
4. One loss, wins the ACC (same as #3, but one extra loss on our SOS)

 

[wizards8507]

Yes, but does a 12-0 losing to Florida get in over a 12-1 conference champ FSU, or 11-1 ND, or 11-1 Big 12 champ?

No yes yes.

Doesn't matter thought because LSU won't be 12-0 heading in, they'd be 11-0. How delicious is it that a rained out game against McNeese State might end up screwing them?

 

[gkIrish]

No yes yes.

Doesn't matter thought because LSU won't be 12-0 heading in, they'd be 11-0. How delicious is it that a rained out game against McNeese State might end up screwing them?

Yes, but does a 12-0 losing to Florida get in over a 12-1 conference champ FSU, or 11-1 ND, or 11-1 Big 12 champ?

I think a 12-1 or 11-1 SEC team gets in hands down no matter when they lose.

 

[gkIrish]

By the way, the way this season is going I think my preferred model of a 6 team playoff is even more preferable.

8 teams would probably eliminate most of the discussions we are having, which is no fun.

4 teams leaves out a worthy Power 5 champ or a worthy ND or a combination of both.

6 teams gives ND a fair chance every year (or any at-large team) and still allows every Power 5 team to have a worthy representative.