ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[IrishFanJMercy]

There's
No way if FSU wins out that they get in! Sorry, the only good team they play left
On their schedule is Clemson.

 

[kmoose]

And Oklahoma's record against the top 25 at the time would be 5-0:

#23 Tennessee
#23 West Virginia
#2 Baylor*
#4 TCU*
#14 Oklahoma St.*

*week 8 as well

What looks better? Tennessee and WVU cancel out Temple and Pitt.
Oklahoma St. cancels Georgia Tech

So we are comparing wins over #2 and #4 to #10.

Obviously they have a worse loss but I think their two elite wins would easily trump, especially if Texas turns things around and that loss doesn't look as bad.

This was just a random hypothetical--really have no desire to debate this further.

I honestly didn't realize that there was a debate going on. I was just answering your question about who would be our best win, based on "at the time" ranking. I just threw the record against the Top 25 in there for reference.

 

[DillonHall]

FSU actually matches up better against Clemson. Golson will probably be more mobile against them and so far, mobile QBs are giving Clemson D fits. FSU may - MAY beat Clemson but I really don't think FSU can beat Florida.

I think it's quite a misconception that Golson is that mobile.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I think it's quite a misconception that Golson is that mobile.

Some of Golson's best passes in the past, and this year have been out of the pocket. Have you ever watched him play?

 

[Cackalacky]

I don't think so. Say Clempson, Ohio State, and Baylor are undefeated. We beat Stanford, who goes on to win the Pac-12. I don't think an SEC winning Ole Miss is in in that scenario. If anything, we'd have to be worried about an undefeated Memphis, who had a convincing win over the SEC champ on their belt.

A lot of these " scenarios" depend on where ND is ranked at the end of their season and where other teams playing a 13th conference.championship game are ranked before and after that last game. So at this point it is entirely plausible that an SEC champion will get in because...#SEC

 

[Freeman Ara]

I don't think so. Say Clempson, Ohio State, and Baylor are undefeated. We beat Stanford, who goes on to win the Pac-12. I don't think an SEC winning Ole Miss is in in that scenario. If anything, we'd have to be worried about an undefeated Memphis, who had a convincing win over the SEC champ on their belt.

Bigger question. If Alabama beats LSU and ends up 11-1 would the Committee put them in over a 2 loss Champion from their own conference?

 

[gkIrish]

Bigger question. If Alabama beats LSU and ends up 11-1 would the Committee put them in over a 2 loss Champion from their own conference?

How would that realistically happen?

 

[Dizzyphil]

How would that realistically happen?

Meet the idiots

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[Freeman Ara]

How would that realistically happen?

Let's say Alabama beats LSU by 21 points and Ole Miss barely beats the same now lower ranked LSU team. If your looking for the best 4 teams for the playoff then I think a top 5 ranked Bama team would have an argument.

 

[dad4aa]

How would that realistically happen?

It can't

nvm - thought Ole Miss' 2 losses were in conference

 

[gkIrish]

Let's say Alabama beats LSU by 21 points and Ole Miss barely beats the same now lower ranked LSU team. If your looking for the best 4 teams for the playoff then I think a top 5 ranked Bama team would have an argument.

In the extremely unlikely event Ole Miss wins out either Bama would make the playoff or neither.

 

[dad4aa]

.

 

[MJ12666]

It can't

nvm - thought Ole Miss' 2 losses were in conference

One in conference the other to Memphis.

 

[Cogs]

Best Case Scenario Clemson, Stanford, Temple win their conference and ND wins out. Pac 12 will be left out this year.

 

[GoldenDomer]

Our resumé looks a lot better today than it did before yesterday. Hopefully GT and USC keep it going.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Our resumé looks a lot better today than it did before yesterday. Hopefully GT and USC keep it going.

Don't count out Texas turning into a quality win ether.

 

[IrishinSyria]

A lot of these " scenarios" depend on where ND is ranked at the end of their season and where other teams playing a 13th conference.championship game are ranked before and after that last game. So at this point it is entirely plausible that an SEC champion will get in because...#SEC

Yeah, I mean this is college football. The only thing I expect at this point is that something crazy will happen before the end of the season. That being said, I think an ND team that wins out looks real good.

 

[IrishinSyria]

There's
No way if FSU wins out that they get in! Sorry, the only good team they play left
On their schedule is Clemson.

Florida would like to have a word with you.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Best Case Scenario Clemson, Stanford, Temple win their conference and ND wins out. Pac 12 will be left out this year.

Assuming OSU/MSU, Baylor/TCU, and Bama/LSU get in, how do both Clemson and ND get in? Even if the Pac-12 and Big 10 both self-destroy (which strikes me as unlikely), are they going to want to put in teams that have already played each other? As far as I am aware this only happened once in the BCS era (out of 16 games) and while I realize that was computer-driven, there is still probably a perception that we've already seen 'that game,' etc.

On the other hand, this leads to the bizarre situation that losing to another playoff contender hurts a team, which makes little sense. Also, the consensus view on ESPN yesterday, and that of Sir SEC on his radio show this week, was that an 11-1 ND would get in. Hopefully they are right.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

Assuming OSU/MSU, Baylor/TCU, and Bama/LSU get in, how do both Clemson and ND get in? Even if the Pac-12 and Big 10 both self-destroy (which strikes me as unlikely), are they going to want to put in teams that have already played each other? As far as I am aware this only happened once in the BCS era (out of 16 games) and while I realize that was computer-driven, there is still probably a perception that we've already seen 'that game,' etc.

On the other hand, this leads to the bizarre situation that losing to another playoff contender hurts a team, which makes little sense. Also, the consensus view on ESPN yesterday, and that of Sir SEC on his radio show this week, was that an 11-1 ND would get in. Hopefully they are right.

I dont see either Baylor or TCU getting in. Baylor and TCU will each lose an additional game to eiher Oklahoma or Ok State especially given that the bears lost their QB. I feel certain that an 11-1 ND gets in.

 

[BobbyMac]

Week 10:

Below is the:

Team...............Record......Opponent

AAC

(18) Houston........(0)..........Vandy
(16) Memphis.......(0)..........Tulane

ACC

(3) Clemson..........(0)..........@ NCSt................
(17) FSU...............(1)...........Syracuse..............
(UR) UNC..............(1).......... @ Pitt..................
(22) Duke..............(1)...........Miami...................


B1G

(1) tOSU................(0).............Bye.....................
(6) MSU.................(0).............Bye.....................
(10) Iowa...............(0).............Maryland.............


Big 12

(2) Baylor...............(0)..............Bye.....................
(5) TCU..................(0)..............WVU...................
(12) OSU................(0)..............@ TTU................
(14) OU..................(1)..............@ KU..................

I added OU since some think they could get in ahead of ND if both 11-1 and OU is the Big 12 champ

PAC-12

(13) Utah................(1)...............OSU....................


SEC

(11) Florida.............(1)...............UGA....................
(4) LSU.................(0)................Bye...................
(7) Bama................(1)................Bye....................
(19) Ole Miss...........(2)...............@ Aub.................

Added Ole Miss because they can win the SEC West and Championship. Own tie breaker with Bama also who they beat ON THE ROAD in convincing fashion. Some think they could even make playoffs with 2 losses. (with a loss to Memphis???)


Opponents Week 10 schedule:

Texas @ ISU
UVa vs GT
GT @ UVa
UMass @ Ball St
Clemson @ NC St
Navy vs USF
SC v@ Cal
Temple vs ND
Pitt vs UNC
WF vs Ville
BC vs VT
Stanford @ WSU

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">QB Seth Russell to undergo season-ending surgery. <a href="https://t.co/f2a9aLXeES">https://t.co/f2a9aLXeES</a></p>— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/BUFootball/status/658712099661705217">October 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Rough for them....could be pretty big for us though.

 

[BobbyMac]

Rough for them....could be pretty big for us though.

IS

They instantly fall to #6 in my poll and I give them a basically a 0% chance to beat OU, OSU, TCU, UT. It will be interesting to see if they can even get out of Manhattan with a win.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">QB Seth Russell to undergo season-ending surgery. <a href="https://t.co/f2a9aLXeES">https://t.co/f2a9aLXeES</a></p>— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/BUFootball/status/658712099661705217">October 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Rough for them....could be pretty big for us though.

IS

They instantly fall to #6 in my poll and I give them a basically a 0% chance to beat OU, OSU, TCU, UT. It will be interesting to see if they can even get out of Manhattan with a win.

Eh, could backfire. If everyone starts beating up on Baylor then there's less chance that both TCU and OK State drop games.

 

[irishfan]

Eh, could backfire. If everyone starts beating up on Baylor then there's less chance that both TCU and OK State drop games.

OK State gets Baylor, TCU, OU all at home, but I don't really think they're much of a threat to go 12-0. They beat Texas by 3, Kansas State by 2, and needed OT to beat WVU.

 

[IrishLax]

Oklahoma State would've lost to Texas if the refs didn't absolutely rob the Longhorns. Oklahoma State has won two games squarely on bad officiating... is what it is, but no way they go undefeated. They aren't talented.

 

[BobbyMac]

Eh, could backfire. If everyone starts beating up on Baylor then there's less chance that both TCU and OK State drop games.

My IS was just to denote that it is a huge deal for ND, not to say it was a definite good or bad situation. As you mentioned, it raises the chance for TCU or OSU to go undefeated but then again if Baylor tanks it hurts those teams' SOS. If they all end up at 11-1, that could be a back breaker against an 11-1 ND squad for a #4 seed if it came to that.

Only thing I know is, it's a big deal.

 

[Irish Knuckles]

Assuming OSU/MSU, Baylor/TCU, and Bama/LSU get in, how do both Clemson and ND get in? Even if the Pac-12 and Big 10 both self-destroy (which strikes me as unlikely), are they going to want to put in teams that have already played each other? As far as I am aware this only happened once in the BCS era (out of 16 games) and while I realize that was computer-driven, there is still probably a perception that we've already seen 'that game,' etc.

On the other hand, this leads to the bizarre situation that losing to another playoff contender hurts a team, which makes little sense. Also, the consensus view on ESPN yesterday, and that of Sir SEC on his radio show this week, was that an 11-1 ND would get in. Hopefully they are right.

i think ou wins the b12 this year. texas state fair was a big wake up call. with baylor's qb out, i favor ou in every game they have left. IF we win out and ou wins the b12, i think we get in over ou. h2h against texas. we can automatically take the p12 out. i think we end up with b10(msu/osu), sec(lsu/bama), acc(clemson) and ND. would be great if fsu wins the acc and loses to uf.

 

[BobbyMac]

i think ou wins the b12 this year. texas state fair was a big wake up call. with baylor's qb out, i favor ou in every game they have left. IF we win out and ou wins the b12, i think we get in over ou. h2h against texas. we can automatically take the p12 out. i think we end up with b10(msu/osu), sec(lsu/bama), acc(clemson) and ND. would be great if fsu wins the acc and loses to uf.

Don't forget, Ole Miss controls their own destiny in the SEC West. An 11-2 Ole Miss as SEC Champ would be mighty nice.

 

[Irish Knuckles]

Don't forget, Ole Miss controls their own destiny in the SEC West. An 11-2 Ole Miss as SEC Champ would be mighty nice.

it would be extremely nice. lsu may be too high or too low pending the outcome of their game with bama. that's what i'm hoping for when they roll into oxford. down side, is that ole miss would probably play uf again in the seccg. we won't get a nod over a 12-1 uf, but maybe uf loses to fsu. i think if clemson wins out we're good, but if a 1 loss fsu wins the acc i don't think we get in over them either. the uf/fsu game will have implications for us, just have to see what shakes out till then. actually, duh, uga beating uf would be good right now.

we won't get in over a 1 loss acc (fsu/clemson) or a 1 loss sec team. only 1 loss team we get in over is ou. hopefully texas goes apeshit and gives baylor a beatdown just in case ou losses to baylor. that charlie strong defense is coming along, especially the dline.

i just think it's more likely that ou runs the table in the b12. i pretty sure they beat tcu because the frogs defense is decimated right now. have to see how stindman(is that correct?) plays at qb for baylor.