2016 Presidential Horse Race

[connor_in]

My tinfoil hat theory is that this is Trump's role.

Just FYI...over the weekend, started seeing #TrumpIsADemocrat on twitter

 

[Cackalacky]

What I am hearing about Sanders from various sources on the right are that he is either a pawn and is meant to show how moderate HRC is OR he will shock the world and either capture the nomination or push for it up until close to the convention. It seems like it kinda what depends on what happens with HRC on her various outstanding issues.

I seriously doubt he is a pawn. Dude has one last chance and is going for broke. As I have said before HRC was beat from the left before and those that voted for Obama still did not get what they wanted and they definitely are not gonna get it from HRC. Its a long road to 2016 still though.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Trump is both winning and losing by a pretty large margain. That seems a sure sign of a fractured party to me.

you crack me up. The GOP is in the early stages of picking a candidate, and there are far too many candidates right now. So they are "fractured."

Hilary's tanking, Sanders is drawing huge crowds, Biden will probably run, but all is well under the blue tent? Haha. Ooookkkk

 

[GoIrish41]

you crack me up. The GOP is in the early stages of picking a candidate, and there are far too many candidates right now. So they are "fractured."

Hilary's tanking, Sanders is drawing huge crowds, Biden will probably run, but all is well under the blue tent? Haha. Ooookkkk

I made no comment about the "blue tent" but only on polls in the GOP primaries. Trump has way more support than any of the other candidates.nhebis also the candidate that nearly a third of the party believes lost the debate, even though his poll numbers have not moved. That tells me that about a forth of the party is in his camp and nearly a third (rightfully) recognized that his brash reformance in the debate was not good, and nobody (judging from the polls) has mounted a credible challenge to Trump ... At least not yet. There seems to be a pretty clear divide on those who support Trump and those who don't. Given his "approach" and the sues he is putting front and center, there is going to be a clash that I don't see being reconciled easily -- a fracture. The Dems' primary s going smooth compared to the GOP's. Otis supposed to be a comparison of ideas and plans. Bernie's success is pushing Hillary left. Her plan fr free public education today is a tip of the hat to Bernie's early success! That is how primaries work. She did not call him a clown and he did not suggest anything about her menstrual cycle. She has not gotten into a screaming match with any of the other candidates on national TV. These are apparently all republican-only strategies.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

She is considered more business friendly than folks like, say, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. She has a lot of ties to big banks and large companies through donations to her campaigns. Bernie's rhetoric suggests he's ready to dismantle big companies TR style while Hillary is more consiliatory toward them. As an example, Bernie doesn't give a crap if he offends big oil with his proposed policies. He has been pushing renewable energy and diminishing the hold of oil companies on Americans for years. Meanwhile, Hillary is avoiding offering an opinion on the Keystone Pipeline, so she doesn't lose votes by not being environmentally conscious enough, but she won't come out against it either, so as to not anger the oil comanies. Eventually, she will be forced to answer the question, but because she is pretty far to the right of Bernie, I'm not sure I'm confident which way she will go when she has to answer. I also think a lot of what people don't like about her is this sort of political fence balancing, and never being quite sure which side she's going to jump down on at any given time. ... that, and her and Slick Willy seem to be continuously at the center of one "scandal" or another. You can make up your own mind about whether it is the GOP being successful at demonizing her or that she does not particularly believe that all of the rules apply to her. My personal feeling that she is "moderate" because it is politically expedient for her to be such. I'm obviously one of those Democrats who hasn't bought into Hillary.

With all of that said, I'd much prefer Bernie from what I know of both. If you said we are definitely going to end up with a Democrat in office in 2016 but I can choose: Bernie all the way. His positions that are on the left of Hillary are the only reason I find some common blood with Democrats and since neither will ever take up some of my more conservative leanings, ie - the diginity of all human life not just ex-utero, at least Bernie represents a change from the big business tie-ins.

 

[GoIrish41]

With all of that said, I'd much prefer Bernie from what I know of both. If you said we are definitely going to end up with a Democrat in office in 2016 but I can choose: Bernie all the way. His positions that are on the left of Hillary are the only reason I find some common blood with Democrats and since neither will ever take up some of my more conservative leanings, ie - the diginity of all human life not just ex-utero, at least Bernie represents a change from the big business tie-ins.

This is where I am at. I am also am looking at Kasich on the other side in the event that Hillary wins the nomination. But, he has an uphill slog to win the nomination, too. I would have to come a long way to support Hillary.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I made no comment about the "blue tent" but only on polls in the GOP primaries. Trump has way more support than any of the other candidates.nhebis also the candidate that nearly a third of the party believes lost the debate, even though his poll numbers have not moved. That tells me that about a forth of the party is in his camp and nearly a third (rightfully) recognized that his brash reformance in the debate was not good, and nobody (judging from the polls) has mounted a credible challenge to Trump ... At least not yet. There seems to be a pretty clear divide on those who support Trump and those who don't. Given his "approach" and the sues he is putting front and center, there is going to be a clash that I don't see being reconciled easily -- a fracture. The Dems' primary s going smooth compared to the GOP's. Otis supposed to be a comparison of ideas and plans. Bernie's success is pushing Hillary left. Her plan fr free public education today is a tip of the hat to Bernie's early success! That is how primaries work. She did not call him a clown and he did not suggest anything about her menstrual cycle. She has not gotten into a screaming match with any of the other candidates on national TV. These are apparently all republican-only strategies.

Wait till the Dem debates start haha. Bernie and Biden are going to leave Hillary beaten and bloody (politically). It's hilarious how you paint the picture of a broken GOP after one debate, and talk like what's happening with the Dems is exactly how it's supposed to happen lol

 

[GoIrish41]

Wait till the Dem debates start haha. Bernie and Biden are going to leave Hillary beaten and bloody (politically). It's hilarious how you paint the picture of a broken GOP after one debate, and talk like what's happening with the Dems is exactly how it's supposed to happen lol

There has never been a debate like that one. Donald Trump is in control of your election season. No matter how many faux fights that Christie starts, or how many well phrased liberty speeches Rand makes or how many appeals to the faithful Huckabee makes, nobody is talking about anyone else. All you guys keep hoping against hope that you are right when you say he has no chance of getting the nomination, but you aren't sure anymore. It seems a quarter of your party has gone "all in" on crazy. All the other candidates are getting no traction whatsoever -- at least not anything like Trump's. He is up at all hours of the night tweeting insults at FoxNews moderators and speaking publicly about a woman's menstrual cycle. And he does not drop in the polls. Meanwhile he is way ahead while calling women fat pigs and refusing to swear he will not run an end around on the party. That is not a normal debate and this is no ordinary GOP primary. None of that kind of craziness is happening on the other side. If the GOP is not broken, it is difficult for me to understand what broken is.

 

[IrishinSyria]

This is where I am at. I am also am looking at Kasich on the other side in the event that Hillary wins the nomination. But, he has an uphill slog to win the nomination, too. I would have to come a long way to support Hillary.

Understatement of the year award. I can see him sitting on the bottom half of the red ticket if they end up with someone on the right end of the spectrum like Walker, but that will just be an empty appeal to the moderates. He's got no chance of winning top billing, even if he'd be a strong candidate in the general.

 

[GoIrish41]

Understatement of the year award. I can see him sitting on the bottom half of the red ticket if they end up with someone on the right end of the spectrum like Walker, but that will just be an empty appeal to the moderates. He's got no chance of winning top billing, even if he'd be a strong candidate in the general.

That is his only chance to win. Slim but he has nothing else.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Take an entire generation of Conservatives and drown them in endless hours of Rush, Hannity, and Beck on the radio and Fox News' looney propaganda on the television and this is what you get. It was bizarre when Sarah Palin got the VP nomination. It was bizarre this time four years(ish) ago when Michele Bachmann in the lead. Now I almost expect it.

If your party is set up to slowly walk millions of faux-conservatives into crazy land, and that is what has been happening due to our horrendous media situation, this is what you get. First it was blowhands trying to get bookdeals and monetize the ignorance, and now it's fucking Donal Trump.

Thankfully I left the GOP out of frustration in 2012, so this whole Trump deal has been pretty hilarious.

One has to wonder though, competitively, if he can prop up the campaigns of others so he can maintain his plurality. I seriously doubt he can top 50% of the GOP votes, but if he funds the "losers" he could really toy with the party for a long time. Considering most of them are political prostitutes, they would almost certainly stay in it as long as their election chest grows.

I didn't watch the debate, but I imagine three of them looked like policy guys and the rest looked like the clowns they are. But that's just it, when your voting base requests a clown show, don't get upset when a professional clown upstages you.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

No big surprise that Bernie's supporters would have nothing better to do than come to his rally. Does this include the one with the lady introducing him and calling all white people racists during a 20 minute rant? Sounds like a fun crowd.

I was at the rally in Phoenix, perhaps I missed that bit.

 

[yankeehater]

If the Democratic party is the progressive, move forward, lean forward party who target the youth vote, then why do they not have a viable candidate under the age of 65? Right now their candidates look like the grumpy, old, white, rich elitist.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

If the Democratic party is the progressive, move forward, lean forward party who target the youth vote, then why do they not have a viable candidate under the age of 65? Right now their candidates look like the grumpy, old, white, rich elitist.

It could be that perception doesn't bother the "youth" very much. What you're about may just be more important to them.

 

[Redbar]

If the Democratic party is the progressive, move forward, lean forward party who target the youth vote, then why do they not have a viable candidate under the age of 65? Right now their candidates look like the grumpy, old, white, rich elitist.

Sanders Among the Least Wealthy Presidential Candidates--NPR.org

The Sanders household took in more than $205,000 in 2014, and paid the feds nearly $28,000 in taxes — an effective rate of about 20 percent based on Sanders' taxable income of $141,000. That means they likely earned more than 95 percent of Americans, according to the most recent data available from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Sanders had an estimated net worth of $330,000 in 2013, according to financial disclosures filed with the U.S. Senate and analyzed by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, a watchdog group that tracks money in politics. But that's a relative pittance on Capitol Hill, where the median net worth for a member of Congress topped $1 million in 2013, according to the Center's analysis. In the Senate, Sanders is downright poor: the median there was about $2.8 million.

"Congress is a special, elite set," said the Viveca Novak, the Center's editorial and communications director. "Most members of Congress are millionaires."

And Sanders is pretty poor by senatorial standards, Novak said: Based on his 2013 financial disclosure forms, the independent ranked as the 86th richest member of his chamber.

The Sanders' earnings also dims in comparison to the money raked in by his top rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton. The former secretary of state and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, made more than $25 million in speaking fees alone between the start of 2014 and mid-May of this year, according to financial disclosures.

"He's pretty close to the bottom" among presidential candidates, Novak said. "I don't know if there's any major candidate who has a smaller net worth. I mean, you look at [Republican] Jeb Bush, and Jeb Bush last year made about $8 million. So there's a pretty big disparity there."

When speaking or typing with the intention of making a point, truth is important. If you don't know the veracity of your point, then research is key. Google can be an important tool for this.

 

[Cackalacky]

Bernie Sanders - Racial Justice Platform

 

[Cackalacky]

Its peeks behind the curtain that are the most telling to me. How many of you watching the "debate" caught this?
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ST7xs6AhWBA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[RDU Irish]

What will be interesting is what Trump follows up with for favors received. "She came to my wedding" is not a political favor. If he follows up with substance, things that drag Hillary and Bill into the mud, it may work. He will never be on the stage with Hillary but you can imagine him calling Hillary a whore for being his lapdog for a couple of bucks. Fun spiel but it gets old and he won't follow up with any substance or proof that he is looking out for anyone other than himself.

But yes, the other guys all groveling for a donation was pretty pathetic.

 

[RDU Irish]

A conservative pawn designed to distract from (and presumably help) the other GOP candidates, or a Democrat pawn designed to infiltrate the Republican primary only to withdraw and either endorse HRC or run third-party, thus ensuring her victory? Either seems pretty plausible to me.


Maybe. But I think people associate him with his own "TRUMP" brand much more than the GOP brand.

Unrelated, this article from Grantland doesn't paint Scott Walker in a very positive light. Ironically, the author is a liberal who's ripping Walker apart for engaging in some very big-government machinations.

Palace Intrigue: Stadium Fights Explode in Milwaukee and L.A. «

Milwaukee is a dysfunctional cluster. Wisconsin in general is incredibly protective of their sports teams and tend to invert their brain with their arse when stadium topics come up. Big time inferiority complex it and professional sports make them feel like a real town (even if the Brewers and Bucks are never competitive). Really doesn't matter if Walker is pandering to supporters or actually believes the crap he says about a new stadium, he is dead wrong and flushing money down the toilet, he deserves every ounce of criticism he gets and it showcases he comes from a small market.

It is meaningful that Marquette uses the arena for their men's basketball as well. That is a very strong contingent of Walker supporters and they only have basketball on which to hang their hat. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks are a front with Marquette being the intended beneficiary.

I say this while still supporting him.

 

[Cackalacky]

What will be interesting is what Trump follows up with for favors received. "She came to my wedding" is not a political favor. If he follows up with substance, things that drag Hillary and Bill into the mud, it may work. He will never be on the stage with Hillary but you can imagine him calling Hillary a whore for being his lapdog for a couple of bucks. Fun spiel but it gets old and he won't follow up with any substance or proof that he is looking out for anyone other than himself.

But yes, the other guys all groveling for a donation was pretty pathetic.

The "she came to my wedding" thing is gross because the inference was there. Yeah she came to my wedding and she had to because I gave her money. Trumps family member was also awarded a federal court position. It really is "I pay you now and when I come knocking down the road, you WILL deliver." How is that not meet the standard of an "appearance of corruption"?


And yes.... the others were basically admitting they do not expect him to be in the race later and could not help themselves begging for his money....fucking gross.

 

[yankeehater]

[/B]

Sanders Among the Least Wealthy Presidential Candidates--NPR.org

When speaking or typing with the intention of making a point, truth is important. If you don't know the veracity of your point, then research is key. Google can be an important tool for this.

Redbar I am glad you were able to come up with one example. I do not need Google to figure out Mr. Sanders does fit the other criteria however.

 

[Cackalacky]

Redbar I am glad you were able to come up with one example. I do not need Google to figure out Mr. Sanders does fit the other criteria however.

What criteria? White? OK 70% of the country is white.

Male? Ok 50% of the country is male

Elitist? I can hear Sarah Palin now.... What does this even mean? New Englander? College Educated? Living within 100 miles of an Ivy League School? Is he one of them book readers?

“I was in Nashville, Tennessee last year. After the show I went to a Waffle House. I'm not proud of it, I was hungry. And I'm alone, I'm eating and I'm reading a book, right? Waitress walks over to me: 'Hey, whatcha readin' for?' Isn't that the weirdest fuckin' question you've ever heard? Not what am I reading, but what am I reading FOR? Well, goddamnit, ya stumped me! Why do I read? Well . . . hmmm...I dunno...I guess I read for a lot of reasons and the main one is so I don't end up being a fuckin' waffle waitress.”
-Bill Hicks

 

[GoIrish41]

What criteria? White? OK 70% of the country is white.

Male? Ok 50% of the country is male

Elitist? I can hear Sarah Palin now.... What does this even mean? New Englander? College Educated? Living within 100 miles of an Ivy League School? Is he one of them book readers?

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

It could be that perception doesn't bother the "youth" very much. What you're about may just be more important to them.

This seems a bit....trite. Both sides are about perception, how do you think Obama won and was named to Times "Man of the Year" before he did anything? I'm not an Obama hater and I'm not a 'publican, so you can't use those as reasons for my questions.

Obama won because of perception. He was the cool, "not Bush"-type candidate who had done fairly little in his career until 8 years ago. Or maybe I'm misremembering and everyone will explain how great he was?

Perception is everything in our culture and acting like one side looks behind the veil while the other munches on grass like good little sheep is disingenuous. Unless you really believe yourself to be a part of some mental vanguard, then it's just delusional.

 

[GoIrish41]

This seems a bit....trite. Both sides are about perception, how do you think Obama won and was named to Times "Man of the Year" before he did anything? I'm not an Obama hater and I'm not a 'publican, so you can't use those as reasons for my questions.

Obama won because of perception. He was the cool, "not Bush"-type candidate who had done fairly little in his career until 8 years ago. Or maybe I'm misremembering and everyone will explain how great he was?

Perception is everything in our culture and acting like one side looks behind the veil while the other munches on grass like good little sheep is disingenuous. Unless you really believe yourself to be a part of some mental vanguard, then it's just delusional.

I don't want to speak for no.1IrishFan, but I think you may have read a little more into his statement than he meant by it. In fact, my reading of the statement you quoted leads me to believe that he agrees with what you said here. My reading is that "maybe young people don't think he's too old, or that his age is that important of a factor," and "the character and substance of the candidate is far more important than age." That is certainly the perception that Sanders seems to be using to make unanticipated gains with
Democrats this cycle.

 

[GoIrish41]

Rand is having a rough month.


Rand Paul 2016: Senator faces emerging doubts at home - POLITICO

 

[phgreek]

What criteria? White? OK 70% of the country is white.

Male? Ok 50% of the country is male

Elitist? I can hear Sarah Palin now.... What does this even mean? New Englander? College Educated? Living within 100 miles of an Ivy League School? Is he one of them book readers?

Elitest = clueless human who advocates for things w/o an operable understanding of the rational limits or unintended consequences or even the efficacy of the "benefit"...but knows it "feels good", and likely won't impact them.

Often evidenced by people who aren't particularly active in normal service arenas...ie participation in PTA, volunteering in the soup kitchen, coaching Little league, leading scouting, manning the grill at the church social. Often evidenced by people who insulate themselves with like minded people in endeavors to "Define" things w/o alot of discussion like HOAs, academia, politics. It is evidenced at times by that quality of people who can totally benefit from an enormous carbon footprint, but decry my SUV. It is evidenced at times by someone who buys property next to a farm, builds a home, and then covertly tries to build a coalition of neighbors to run the farmer off. It is a clueless hypocrisy, that when present, has the impact on normal people of turning Mr. Hand into Mr. Fist....so they rarely mix with normal people. If none of this makes sense...uhm, your HOA duties are lagging.

In my life Elitests are like Elk...you can presume alot about where you might find them...but alas, in real time they simply are where they are, and they are VERY uncomfortable if you happen to infiltrate them...in fact they post sentinels to prevent it and spend an enormous amount of time searching out places of refuge. You know them when you see them quite quickly...well, and I usually smell them (elk...yea elk) before I ever see them.

Now...rather that applies here...kinda...you don't have to be an Elitest to appeal to one (Pander) with your policies.

 

[phork]

Trump leads because, being a tool or not, he is telling everyone how it is. Flat out. PC out the window. Rich people donate to candidates and then extract favours later down the line? YOU DONT SAY.

 

[ACamp1900]

Trump leads because, being a tool or not, he is telling everyone how it is. Flat out. PC out the window. Rich people donate to candidates and then extract favours later down the line? YOU DONT SAY.

I have a few co workers who love him, I keep trying to talk sense into them and this is exactly what they tell me. They are sick to death of everyone running scared from issues and they have had it with political correctness. So they like Trump.

 

[phgreek]

I have a few co workers who love him, I keep trying to talk sense into them and this is exactly what they tell me. They are sick to death of everyone running scared from issues and they have had it with political correctness. So they like Trump.

Yea...I kinda wish someone could cleanly tie into the feeling trump is locked onto, and explain a little about the reality that truth is not the end...

To me Trump is the guy at work who can tell you everything wrong, and thinks the solution to every problem is some permutation of kicking someone's ass.

In the short term, I think foreign bad actors would reel it in in a hurry because he is unpredictable...but as his domestic support failed, we'd be in worse shape...

Can we pay him not to run??? The guy would make Massive bank if he offered.