2014 NCAA football Real $$$ Bets

[DomeX2 eNVy]

11 for 16 on the year which is still a damn good 69%... my profit margin overall though is now as if I was going 61% because of the extra coin I put on ND.

What lines do you like this week?

I've pretty much missed every week's big bet. When will I learn. At least for pride, my random walk has gotten back to .500.

I haven't studied yet this week as work is getting crazy. But ones of interest are:
Georgia -10 to bounce back at Kentucky
Money still moving away from 1 loss Duke
Rice is 6-2 ATS and won their last 5 in games hosting UTSA
Baylor getting 5.5 at Oklahoma
I think OSU might beat MSU
ND/ASU should score in the 60's but I've missed on the Irish over every time I've tried this year.

We'll see later this week what I decide to do.

I find it pathetic than neither of the Mississippi teams even have lines due to weak ass opponents - #1 - smh.

 

[gkIrish]

I've pretty much missed every week's big bet. When will I learn. At least for pride, my random walk has gotten back to .500.

I haven't studied yet this week as work is getting crazy. But ones of interest are:
Georgia -10 to bounce back at Kentucky
Money still moving away from 1 loss Duke
Rice is 6-2 ATS and won their last 5 in games hosting UTSA
Baylor getting 5.5 at Oklahoma
I think OSU might beat MSU
ND/ASU should score in the 60's but I've missed on the Irish over every time I've tried this year.

We'll see later this week what I decide to do.

I find it pathetic than neither of the Mississippi teams even have lines due to weak ass opponents - #1 - smh.

Duke -3 last week was one of the all-time luckiest pushes for betters on both sides. Pitt missed a 24? yard field goal to win it with no time left in regulation. Then Pitt makes a field goal in overtime and Duke wins by 3 because they score a touchdown. The extra point was unnecessary because Duke went 2nd in that overtime.

 

[fitz_bu47]

Duke was +3 or 3.5. They weren't the favorite. I won some money on the Dukies scoring that OT TD. I like them again this week at Syracuse.

 

[gkIrish]

Duke was +3 or 3.5. They weren't the favorite. I won some money on the Dukies scoring that OT TD. I like them again this week at Syracuse.

Oh you're right my bad. It was still an epic fail on Pitt's part not to at least push at +3

 

[TheTurningPoint]

Why am I just seeing this thread? Awesomeness.

Last weekend was rough on the wallet. How does Vegas know a hot UNC squad is going to go to The U and lose to a true freshman qb by 27?

 

[fitz_bu47]

True, gkIrish. I was feeling very fortunate watching that one in O.T. Gotta steal one from time to time.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Here we go agian, there were lots of lines I liked, but only went with these 7:

Georgia Tech -3.5 for $40 Georgia Tech has been pretty solid lately, and should pull out a road win against NC St. They just struggle a bit against fast pass offenses. Tech already lost to Duck and UNC; they don't want to lose to all 3 teams in the triagle.
Purdue +17.5 for $60 Wisconsin has moved from 15.5 to 17.5 point favorite, and I see Purdue keeping it close - I really like the extra couple points.
Ducke -4 for $140 Again, I'm going deep to the well here with the Blue Devils. They just get no respect despite being 6-2 ATS this year. How are they only a 4 point favorite against Syracuse who is missing their top two QBs?
West Virginia/Texas Over 52.5 for $100 Granted Texas doesn't have a high powered offense, but this line seems low to me with WVU playing.
Texas A&M +23.5 for 60 Auburn is the better team but this line opened -14.5. This is a risky pick with a 1-start freshman QB for A&M; but I'm expecting a quick maturation process with extra practice reps + Auburn looking on to Georgia.
Baylor +6 for $40 I don't trust Oklahoma to stop Baylor, and I'm taking the value as the line has moved from +2.5 to +6. That is too big a point gap to give the Bears.
Presbyterian +50.5 for $60 Mississippi should come out fired up after losing two weeks in a row - but how could I not take over 50 points? Granted this is a team that lost to NIU by 52 and NC St by 42 scoring a combined 3 points in those games. OK, so I'm made a mistake on this, but there is a chance Ole Miss coasts and only wins by 49.

On the plus side, public money is moving to ASU, which is a good sign for the underdog Irish. The over line moved to 60.5 and that was too high for me - though it will go over. Leaving money on the table here.

Is Iowa St vs Kansas the worst Power 5 match up possible?
I really like Utah at home +8, but didn't have the guts to bet it; and I think OSU pulls it out today.

Running total: Win = $1358; Loss = $1670; Net = - $312; Pending = $750; record (28-28-1)

Go Irish!

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Georgia Tech, Duke, Texas A&M, and Baylor all covered easily for me. Then I got lucky with Presbyterian and their 0-48 loss (even though I thought they'd lose by 49 - lol)
Then there is Purdue who missed covering by 0.5 points and West Virginia's pathetic performance missed that over by 3.5 points.

I wish I would have gone with Georgia, Rice, and the ND over like I said earlier this week - oh well.
Anyway, 5-2 for +$146 is a keeper and helps heal the bruises of the ND game - still not sure what I witnessed there.

Running total: Win = $1664; Loss = $1830; Net = - $164; Pending = $250; record (33-30-1)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

ND opened a 16.5 favorite and are now at -17. So it looks like we should get an 8th win.

The Westage (formerly LVH) has some future games with new lines. Of interest. USC is currently a 4.5 favorite against ND - I think the Irish should be a good bet, especially if the line moves up.
Also:
West Virginia -2.5 vs Kansas St
Baylor -8.5 vs Kansas St
UCLA -3 vs Stanford; UCLA -3 vs USC - interesting it is the same line and all the Bruin love still
LSU -1 vs Texas A&M - really? I'll go to the bank on the Tigers here
TCU -10 vs Texas - I see TCU rolling in this one
Arizona and Arizona St = pick'em
Ole Miss -3 vs Miss St - ????
Alabama -7 vs Auburn
Georgia -14 vs Georgia Tech - liking Tech in this one
AND Michigan +18 against OSU

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

On my phone, so limited commentary this week, but again going against the public on some line moves - these value plays have been working. And what's up with the SEC lines? Arkansas/LSU pick'em. #1 getting 10 points. The great Auburn is a dog?

Miss St +10 for $60
ND/NW over 51 For $60
Nevada +3 for $40
Duke -4 for $60
Kentucky +11 for $60
Utah +9 for $80
UNLV +26.5 for $40

 

[IrishLax]

Only bet I took was Miss State +11... which I really have serious reservations about... but 11 is a lot of freaking points. Sets up well for a back door cover. Could easily see Bama up 28-10 with MSU scoring a late TD or something.

 

[Black Irish]

I'm not a sports better, but what do all of you players think about the close line on FSU-Miami? 2.5 pts the last I saw. Seems way to close for #3 defending National Champ against an unranked Convict team.

 

[gkIrish]

Just saw on Gameday that when teams cover "big" against Notre Dame (not sure what that means), they are 2-20 ATS the following week. Body Blow Theory?

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I'm starting out with 4 games this week. I've been traveling all week and just getting to look at games now. I'll update my stats later.

ND/Louisville over 51.5 for $140
USC +4.5 for $100
Utah -4.5 for $80
Boston College +17 EV for $60

I'm also liking Hawaii.
BC was my pick at the start of the year to beat FSU, so I'm stick with it. Louisville might score 40 by themselves.

 

[IrishLax]

So last week's Mississippi State +11 got me to 12 for 17 with their backdoor cover... then as I mentioned in the Louisville thread I took the Cardinals and the points. I ended up locking in $250 at Louisville +7 (for really heavy juice) and another $250 at Louisville +3.5 (no juice) because that's what I could get from my guy. I'll count that as one bet for win % which brings me to 13 for 18 on the year (72%... still best year ever by a solid margin) and in net $$ I'm...

12x$100
1x$500
4x$-110
1x$-330
NET = +$930

 

[IrishSteelhead]

In a sports book last week I did a 5 game parlay for $100:

OSU -13.5 against Minny LOSS
MSU +10.5 against Bama WIN
MSU/Bama under 54.5 WIN
FSU -1.5 against Miami WIN
Georgia -1.5 against Auburn WIN

Ticket would have paid close to $2,000. Yet another reason to hate Ohio State.....

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Updating the yearly total with the last few weeks - including my whopping +$8 last week. Looking for some good games this weekend. I like ND and Marshall so far; gut feels.

Running total: Win = $2066; Loss = $2170; Net = - $104; Pending = $250; record (39-35-1)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I'm falling into the biggest trap game of the year; but what the hell.

$200 on Arizona +14.5 The set up: Arizona beat Oregon by 26 late last year. Arizona went to Eugene and gave Oregon their only loss of the year by 7 points. And now on a neutral field, the Ducks are giving over 2 touchdowns? It's got to be a trap, but I'm falling hard. Here's to hoping the Cats can keep it close.

Running total: Win = $2142; Loss = $2340; Net = - $198; Pending = $200; record (40-38-1)

 

[IrishLax]

Nevada sports bettors wagered, lost more than ever in 2014 - ESPN

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

3 game parlay

Georgia Tech -7.5 against Duke

The over (75) in Baylor/Rice

Bowling Green -3 against Purdue