After grinding out another win against a relentless Navy team the Irish head down to Tempe, Arizona for one of those quality match-ups that the playoff committee puts so much stock in. Although the Irish looked impressive in their close loss to FSU it seems that this has been the game everyone has been waiting for to help them decide whether to buy or sell Notre Dame’s legitimacy this season. With the exception of an ugly loss to UCLA at the end of September, the Sun Devils have navigated a tough PAC 12 schedule keeping them in contention for a spot in the conference championship game as well as keeping alive their own dreams for a playoff run.
Similar to the Irish, Todd Graham’s squad has escaped a few close calls needing a last second Hail Mary to beat USC on the road and surviving Utah last weekend at home thanks to two missed Utes field goals in overtime. The Sun Devils have had to overcome a mix of adversity to claw their way to their one loss record but have none the less set them up for what’s essentially a playoff elimination game with the Irish which will see one team emerge as a contender and the other left to speculate about other post-season possibilities.
Aside from the loss of some key defensive personnel from last year’s unit the biggest challenge for ASU this season has been handling an injury to their dynamic Senior QB Taylor Kelly. Kelly has been back for two games now but has struggled a bit. Before his injury, Kelly’s only action this season was against two teams that have only 5 wins between them and a winless Weber State at the start of the season, so it’s tough to really gauge what kind QB he is this season. He’s thrown an interception in both of his games since his return with a few more very close calls while accounting for only 3 TDs, all through the air with a 56% completion rating. His rusty performance the past two weeks has left some fans clamoring for back-up QB Mike Bercovici who performed well in Kelly’s absence against a very rigorous slate of opponents. Bercovici doesn’t possess the mobility of his dual-threat counterpart but he’s been much more efficient through the air and remains a viable option for Graham to utilize.
While Kelly continues working to return to form and regain his elusive and proficient dual-threat abilities, he has a few playmakers around him to help. Junior DJ Foster is the unquestioned lead RB with nearly 3 times as many carries and over 400 more yards than the next RB on the depth chart, Freshman Demario Richard, but Todd Graham commented this week on his desire to get the Freshman more involved. In addition to Foster’s dominance in the team’s rushing statistics he’s also the second leading receiver with 452 receiving yards and 2 TDs to go along with his 701 yards and 6 TDs on the ground.
Much like Foster’s separation between himself and the other RB’s, Junior WR Jalen Strong has been equally as dominant in his position group. Strong’s 821 yards and 8 TDs through the air overwhelm the numbers put up by the next most productive WR, Sophomore Cameron Smith, who has tallied 328 receiving yards for 3 TDs. Brian Kelly very appropriately made a comparison of Strong to Michael Floyd as they are almost identical in size and both bring a physicality to the position. Seven different players have logged receiving TDs for the Sun Devils but there’s an obvious reliance upon Strong with Taylor Kelly seeking out the WR maybe a little too much. If the Irish Secondary can control Strong like they’ve done with the other dynamic WRs they’ve faced then they could put a serious damper on the ASU passing game.
When it comes to the ASU Defense, the unit could be accurately labeled as a work in progress but they’ve shown some definite development and progress over the last few games. After replacing a boat load of starters from last season and moving a few pieces around it seems that this group is starting pull things together but they haven’t faced a QB like Golson with options like the Irish Offense has since getting destroyed by UCLA in their own house. Graham deploys an aggressive defensive scheme that Brian Kelly compared to Notre Dame’s approach and then went further to say that they are a lot like Syracuse just bigger. That may cause Irish fans some concern when remembering the struggles of Golson against that chaotic Cuse Defense but it should also be noted that was the game when the Irish trotted out a reshuffled O Line, a unit that has significantly improved over the past month.
That Irish O-Line may have its hands full picking up some exotic pressures but it should be able to get enough of a push to allow an emerging Irish ground game led by Tarean Folston a chance to flourish against an ASU Defense that ranks 90th in the country defending the run, allowing an average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Sun Devils Defense has also shown itself to be susceptible to big plays, giving up five 80 yard plus plays against UCLA. Brian Kelly will look to exploit both of those deficiencies, likely using the run to set up some deep shots downfield.
It’s reasonable to expect the Irish Offense to find a good bit of production in this game both through the air and on the ground so the main concern this week will be an Irish Defense that has to move forward without key middle linebacker Joe Schmidt. ASU runs an up tempo Offense and Schmidt’s leadership will be greatly missed when Irish defenders are rushing to get into proper sets quickly. Even with Schmidt on the field, the Irish couldn’t handle UNC’s fast paced attack but Kelly and VanGorder feel that game served as a wake-up call and both seem confident that they will correct a lot of the mistakes that led to that defensive melt-down. The biggest issue caused by the increased tempo was Notre Dame’s inability to substitute in their specialty 3rd down and situational packages, leaving players on the field that were not prepared to execute what was required. Brian VanGorder has claimed that there will not be a repeat of that situation as he’ll have his players better prepared to stay on the field and not rely so heavily on those sub-packages.
On paper it seems simple, stay glued to Jalen Strong and eliminate him as a go-to target while stuffing the run and containing Taylor Kelly. It’s just too bad games aren’t played on paper. A lot of this game will come down to Kelly and what he’s able to do. If he plays to his abilities and shows flashes of his former Heisman potential self then this game will turn into a shoot out between two great mobile QBs, but if he continues to lack efficiency and isn’t effective using his feet then the Irish Defense could really pin their ears back. ASU has multiple playmakers but it’s really a three man show composed of Kelly, Strong, and Foster that lives and dies by what Kelly is able to do. Kelly’s rusty return to action has resulted in ASU’s two lowest scoring games this season and he’ll be facing a Notre Dame Defense that’s no stranger to dynamic QBs. The Irish have been stout against the run, limited star WRs, and contained mobile QBs. They won’t be facing anythingSaturday that they haven’t already seen or beaten.
If ASU wants to win on Saturday, Kelly needs to be able to evade pressure and make plays throwing the ball, because while the Irish have done well limiting mobile QBs on the ground, they’ve struggled with those that can make accurate passes. The Irish cannot lose accountability of receivers, including RB’s, when Kelly scrambles and they have to defend the middle of the field. Todd Graham will surely be looking to attack Nyles Morgan in his first start as a true Freshman but VanGorder isn’t going to leave him hanging out to dry. This game will really test the chemistry and cooperation of this defensive unit as Schmidt’s responsibilities will be distributed amongst multiple players and they’ll have to step up their communication. You also have to consider that while Morgan is nowhere near Schmidt’s level mentally or in experience, he was a 5 star prospect for a reason. He’s an extremely talented athlete that plays physical with a lot of speed and effort. He can make up for a lot with that ability and he’ll give VanGorder a few very exciting options that he didn’t have with Schmidt.
Overall, even if the Irish Defense struggles I just don’t see Taylor Kelly being able to outplay Golson, especially the way he’s been struggling. In addition to Notre Dame’s edge at QB, they just have so many more proven options on Offense than ASU. I also feel like the Irish O-Line and running game will find a lot of production while the Sun Devils struggle running the ball. In fact, that may be the most important aspect of this game. If ASU cannot effectively use their running game then it puts the game completely on Taylor Kelly and I think that would result in mistakes that give the Irish a chance to pull away and grind out yards on the ground while burning the clock, giving ASU even less of a chance to score points.
Golson played an outstanding game against Navy and seemed to have regained some confidence in being himself and just letting the game come naturally. I think he continues that trend this weekend and earns back some of the hype and respect that he lost through his rough patch. Led by Golson making plays with both his arms and legs, supplemented by another big day from Folston, the Irish will win this game. Whether it’s close in the end or not depends on Taylor Kelly and the Irish Defense but this ASU team is not as good as the team that lost to a Rees led Irish team last season. The Irish are faster and more potent on both sides of the ball this year and they will earn some much due respect this weekend in Tempe.