Coach D at ISD put out pretty good update today on all this:
CFB Playoff Picture - Week 2 - Irish Sports Daily
There was some shuffling of the College Football Playoff committee’s Top 25, but there was nothing new for Notre Dame. The Irish remain No. 10 in the poll, but t
he reshuffling should help Notre Dame moving forward.
The first three teams remain the same with Oregon joining Mississippi State, Florida State and Auburn in the Top 4. Arizona State joined the Top 10 at the No. 9 spot, replacing Ole Miss in the Top 10. Arizona State is now one spot ahead of the Irish. This is a good thing for Notre Dame, as a victory over the Sun Devils would give Notre Dame the signature win they lack right now.
This is week two of our breakdown of teams that are in contention with Notre Dame for the first playoff in college football history.
Here is a breakdown of those teams:
1. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-0)
KEY WINS: at #16 LSU (34-29), #3 Auburn (38-23), Texas A&M (48-31)
LOSS: None
SCORING OFFENSE: 39.1 (No. 12)
SCORING DEFENSE: 20.1 (No. 20)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 522.4 (No. 8)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 434.8 (No. 89)
SCORING MARGIN: +19.0
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. Tennessee-Martin
Nov. 15 – at #6 Alabama
Nov. 22 – vs. Vanderbilt
Nov. 29 – at #4 Mississippi
Dec. 6 – SEC Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Mississippi State had to come from behind to beat 4-5 Arkansas, but the Bulldogs did what good teams are supposed to do, win games when you are not playing your best football. The reality is, Mississippi State’s 7-point road win at Arkansas is more impressive than Alabama’s 1-point win at the same location. Beating Arkansas was not a given, so pulling off that road win was huge for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State hosts Tennessee-Martin this weekend, which will give the Bulldogs a chance to breathe after a tough stretch. This is essentially a “get healthy” game and a glorified scrimmage as Mississippi State prepares to travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in two weeks. Mississippi State also has a road trip to Ole Miss on the docket, so there is still a lot of work to be done for them as they look to hold onto their spot at the top of the poll.
2. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-0)
KEY WINS: #21 Clemson (23-17 OT), #10 Notre Dame (31-27), at Louisville (42-31)
LOSS: None
SCORING OFFENSE: 38.4 (No. 14)
SCORING DEFENSE: 22.8 (No. 41)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 459.0 (No. 32)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 388.6 (No. 61)
SCORING MARGIN: +15.6
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. Virginia
Nov. 15 – at Miami, Fla.
Nov. 22 – vs. Boston College
Nov. 29 – vs. Florida
Dec. 6 – ACC Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Florida State cleared its last major hurdle when it came from behind to beat then #25 Louisville on the road. The Seminoles were down 21-0 in the first half against the Cardinals, but they rallied late for the 42-31 win. Miami on the road is looking like a much tougher game than it did a few weeks ago, as the Hurricanes are on a three game win streak (beat Cincinnati 55-34, Virginia Tech 30-6, North Carolina 47-20). Florida’s win over Georgia was big for the Gators, who are now 4-3 with some winnable games remaining on the schedule. The Seminoles need Florida to win out, which could possibly get the Gators back into the Top 25 and give the Seminoles one more quality win.
Notre Dame would need Florida State to lose twice to pass them in the polls, so at this point in time Notre Dame fans should be pulling for Florida State to win out, which would mean Notre Dame’s only loss is against the No. 2 (possibly No. 1) team on the road in a hotly contested game. It’s not as good as a quality win, but it still helps.
3. AUBURN TIGERS (7-1)
KEY WINS: at #7 Kansas State (20-14), #16 LSU (41-7), at #11 Ole Miss (35-31)
LOSS: at #1 Mississippi State (38-23)
SCORING OFFENSE: 38.8 (No. 13)
SCORING DEFENSE: 22.0 (No. 34)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 498.1 (No. 17)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 378.6 (No. 54)
SCORING MARGIN: +16.8
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. Texas A&M
Nov. 15 – at #20 Georgia
Nov. 22 – vs. Samford
Nov. 29 – at #5 Alabama
Dec. 6 – SEC Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Auburn racked up another very impressive win, beating then #4 Ole Miss on the road in what was a great football game. Ole Miss gave Auburn everything they could handle, something I did not think the Rebels could do, but Auburn pulled it out in the end. The win was huge for Auburn, as they now have by far the best resume of the one-loss teams. Some bad news for Auburn, their defense gave up 492 yards (7.0 per play) to an average to below-average Ole Miss offense. That’s the third straight game the Tiger defense gave up at least 469 yards and 31 points. Auburn has also allowed 498.7 yards and 34.7 points per game over their last three games. Auburn still has an extremely difficult schedule remaining. They have a home contest against Texas A&M this weekend, which should be a relatively easy win. Auburn then travels to Athens to take on Georgia, a team that is now in a must-win mode to win the SEC East. After a bye week against Samford, the Tigers travel to Alabama for the Iron Bowl. If they manage those four wins, Auburn would still need to win the SEC Championship game. If Auburn wins out they absolutely deserve to be in the playoffs.
Notre Dame needs Auburn to lose one more game, hopefully against Georgia. Auburn losing to Georgia and beating Alabama would be the ideal situation for Notre Dame.
4. OREGON DUCKS (8-1)
KEY WINS: #8 Michigan State (46-27), at #22 UCLA (42-30), Washington (45-20), Stanford (45-16)
LOSS: #12 Arizona (24-31)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.4 (No. 6)
SCORING DEFENSE: 24.8 (No. 56)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 533.8 (No. 5)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 458.6 (No. 103)
SCORING MARGIN: +20.6
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #17 Utah
Nov. 15 – Bye Week
Nov. 22 – vs. Colorado
Nov. 29 – at Oregon State
Dec. 5 – Pac 12 Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Oregon took a huge step forward this weekend by whipping Stanford 45-16. Stanford was one of two final major hurdles before the Pac 12 title game. The win, coupled with the Ole Miss loss, vaulted Oregon into the Top 4. Although Oregon is in position to win out, there are not any more “big wins” left on the schedule. A win on the road over Utah this weekend would be a good one, but it does not compare with some of the “huge wins” that are still there for the SEC West teams to have. So Oregon is going to have to look really, really good over its final five games and cannot afford any slip ups. It would seem
the only way Notre Dame can pass Oregon is if the Ducks lose another game.
5. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (7-1)
KEY WINS: #23 West Virginia (33-23), Texas A&M (59-0), Florida (42-21)
LOSS: at #11 Mississippi (17-23)
SCORING OFFENSE: 36.5 (No. 18)
SCORING DEFENSE: 14.0 (No. 2)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 508.9 (No. 11)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 277.3 (No. 4)
SCORING MARGIN: +22.5
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #16 LSU
Nov. 15 – vs #1 Mississippi State
Nov. 22 – vs. Western Carolina
Nov. 29 – vs. #3 Auburn
Dec. 6 – SEC Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Alabama gained a spot despite having a bye week, thanks to Ole Miss losing to Auburn. The Crimson Tide have a lot of big games remaining on their schedule. This weekend Alabama travels to Baton Route to take on #16 LSU. A week later Alabama hosts #1 Mississippi State before a scrimmage against Western Carolina. Alabama will end the season with a home game against #3 Auburn, and if the Crimson Tide win out they would likely play in the SEC title game. If Auburn runs the table and goes 5-0 they will almost be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. At that point the question is what becomes of Mississippi State? That should be interesting to watch. This weekend’s game against LSU will be one of the top games to watch.
Of course for Notre Dame, a LSU win would be huge.
6. TCU HORNED FROGS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #18 Oklahoma (37-33), at #23 West Virginia (31-30), Minnesota (30-7)
LOSS: at #13 Baylor (58-61)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.0 (No. 2)
SCORING DEFENSE: 22.6 (No. 40)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 550.0 (No. 3)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 370.0 (No. 48)
SCORING MARGIN: +25.4
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. #9 Kansas State
Nov. 15 – at Kansas
Nov. 22 – Bye Week
Nov. 27 – at Texas (Thursday)
Dec. 6 – vs. Iowa State
ANALYSIS: Going into last weekend, TCU was resting on its win over Oklahoma. Now, with its 31-30 come from behind victory over #23 West Virginia, the Horned Frogs have two “big wins” on their resume. TCU gets another chance this weekend when it takes on #7 Kansas State. It will serve as the biggest “elimination game” of the weekend.
This could be TCU’s last big test. If the Horned Frogs get past Kansas State its last big test would be a road game against 4-5 Texas. This could really be the weekend that decides whether or not TCU is a legitimate playoff team. Kansas State still has two really tough tests remaining, so
Notre Dame fans should be pulling for Kansas State to pull off the victory, as the Wildcats have a tougher road to remain unbeaten.
7. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #15 Oklahoma (31-30), Texas (23-0), Oklahoma State (48-14)
LOSS: #3 Auburn (14-20)
SCORING OFFENSE: 38.3 (No. 15)
SCORING DEFENSE: 18.6 (No. 12)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 424.1 (No. 56)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 321.1 (No. 16)
SCORING MARGIN: +19.7
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #6 TCU
Nov. 15 – Bye Week
Nov. 20 – at #23 West Virginia
Nov. 29 – vs Kansas
Dec. 6 – at #12 Baylor
ANALYSIS: Kansas State whipped Oklahoma State this weekend, a win that allowed them to leap Michigan State and come in at #17 in the second poll. The Wildcats have a very tough road remaining. As was noted above, Kansas State plays in an elimination game this weekend against TCU. One of those teams will likely be removed from playoff contention. With games remaining against #23 West Virginia and #12 Baylor, Kansas State could conceivably get back into the mix, but it would be tough. Kansas State is a good football team and is one of the very few teams that rank in the Top 20 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense. That is a big reason the Wildcats keep winning despite not having the top-to-bottom talent of most of their opponents.
8. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #15 Nebraska (27-22), Purdue (45-31), Indiana (56-17)
LOSS: at #5 Oregon (27-46)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.5 (No. 5)
SCORING DEFENSE: 20.3 (No. 22)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 515.3 (No. 9)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 279.4 (No. 5)
SCORING MARGIN: +25.2
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. #16 Ohio State
Nov. 15 – at Maryland
Nov. 22 – Rutgers
Nov. 29 – at Penn State
Dec. 7 – Big 10 Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Michigan State didn’t play last weekend and they were jumped by Kansas State, who beat unranked Oklahoma State.
I’m not sure how beating Oklahoma State, who isn’t very good, made the committee realize that Kansas State was now better than Michigan State. It’s also interesting that Kansas State’s only “big win” was over two-loss Oklahoma, who is currently ranked #15. Michigan State’s “big win” was over #13 Nebraska. Kansas State’s body of work is better, but it isn’t any better this week than it was last week. Michigan State gets its chance for another big win this weekend when it hosts #14 Ohio State.
A win over the Buckeyes would give the Spartans two wins over Top 25 teams, which should boost their overall ranking. If the Spartans beat Ohio State they are set up for a strong finish, with road games against Maryland and Penn State to go along with a home game over Rutgers. After that it will boil down to Michigan State either getting a rematch against #13 Nebraska or a game against #25 Wisconsin.
9. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #17 Utah (19-16), at USC (38-34), Stanford (26-10)
LOSS: #18 UCLA (27-62)
SCORING OFFENSE: 34.4 (No. 36)
SCORING DEFENSE: 24.1 (No. 49)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 483.6 (No. 22)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 385.3 (No. 58)
SCORING MARGIN: +10.3
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs #10 Notre Dame
Nov. 15 – at Oregon State
Nov. 22 – vs Washington State
Nov. 28 – at #19 Arizona (Friday)
Dec. 5 – Pac 12 Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Arizona State won an overtime game at home over #17 Utah, which vaulted the Sun Devils up five spots to No. 9. The committee must have liked Arizona State’s resume, with quality wins over USC, Stanford and Washington as they headed into last week. With a win over a ranked them the committee went all in for Arizona State.
This is actually a great thing for Notre Dame. If the Irish can go on the road and beat a Top 10 football team it would give them a huge win that right now the committee does not believe it has.
10. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-1)
KEY WINS: Stanford (17-14), North Carolina (50-43), Syracuse (31-15)
LOSS: at #2 Florida State (27-31)
SCORING OFFENSE: 35.4 (No. 29)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.6 (No. 28)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 458.3 (No. 34)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 359.1 (No. 41)
SCORING MARGIN: +13.8
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #9 Arizona State
Nov. 15 – vs Northwestern
Nov. 22 – vs. Louisville
Nov. 29 – at USC
ANALYSIS: Notre Dame needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Navy, although the Midshipmen had the lead for just one possession.
The concern for Notre Dame was whether or not they would get knocked down based on the win, but they did not. Notre Dame remains #10 and in good position to make a big jump this weekend. Arizona State leaped the Irish, so
a Notre Dame win this weekend not only gives the Irish a huge win over a Top 10 team, it also would bump the Irish up one spot. TCU and Kansas State also play each other, and both are ranked ahead of the Irish. A Notre Dame win would also allow the Irish to jump the loser of that game. So a victory this weekend puts Notre Dame up to #8 at the very least. Notre Dame still very much has a shot at the playoffs as long as it keeps winning and handling its business.
11. MISSISSIPPI REBELS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #5 Alabama (23-17), at Texas A&M (35-20), vs. Boise State (35-13)
LOSS: at #19 LSU (10-7), #3 Auburn (35-31)
SCORING OFFENSE: 31.8 (No. 48)
SCORING DEFENSE: 13.2 (No. 1)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 426.4 (No. 55)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 327.4 (No. 19)
SCORING MARGIN: +18.6
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – vs. Presbyterian
Nov. 15 – Bye Week
Nov. 22 – at Arkansas
Nov. 29 – vs. #1 Mississippi State
Dec. 6 – SEC Championship Game
ANALYSIS:
Ole Miss losing to Auburn was huge for Notre Dame. I still do not understand why Ole Miss is considered such a highly ranked team. They’ve lost two games in a row but remain the No. 11 team in the country? Ahead of teams like Baylor, Nebraska and Ohio State? Ahead of a two-loss team in LSU that beat them? The committee loves Ole Miss for some reason, so seeing them get knocked off was big for the Irish. Ole Miss also suffered some devastating injuries in the game, especially the loss of wide receiver Laquan Treadwell, who is now out for the season. Ole Miss has to travel to Arkansas for what will be a tough game and they finish the season off by hosting #1 Mississippi State.
I have a very hard time seeing Ole Miss passing a one-loss Notre Dame team, but with the Rebels just one spot behind Notre Dame, it is still a possibility, which to be honest is an absolute joke. Notre Dame fans should become huge Arkansas fans over the next couple of weeks, and then hope the Rebels can knock off Mississippi State in the season finale.
12. BAYLOR BEARS (7-1)
KEY WINS: #7 TCU (61-58), at Texas (28-7), at Iowa State (49-28)
LOSS: at #23 West Virginia (27-41)
SCORING OFFENSE: 50.4 (No. 1)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.9 (No. 31)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 590.3 (No. 1)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 322.6 (No. 17)
SCORING MARGIN: +28.5
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #15 Oklahoma
Nov. 15 – Bye Week
Nov. 22 – vs Oklahoma State
Nov. 29 – vs. Texas Tech
Dec. 6 – vs #7 Kansas State
ANALYSIS: Baylor has remained on the outskirts of the Top 10 due to his convincing loss to West Virginia. Of course, Baylor is a big victory away from making a big jump. Baylor already holds a huge win over #6 TCU. Baylor travels to Norman, Oklahoma this weekend to take on the Sooners. Right now, Oklahoma is ranked #15, and a victory this weekend would give Baylor two really good wins with the most recent win coming on the road. Baylor will also be looking for some style points against Oklahoma if it can win. TCU beat Oklahoma at home by 4, Kansas State beat Oklahoma on the road by 1. If Baylor can beat Oklahoma as soundly as it did last season (won 41-12) it would send a huge message. Baylor also has a home game against #7 Kansas State, so
there will be two more opportunities for the Bears to send a message to voters.
13. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (8-1)
KEY WINS: Miami (41-31), at Northwestern (38-17), Rutgers (42-24)
LOSS: at #8 Michigan State (22-27)
SCORING OFFENSE: 40.4 (No. 11)
SCORING DEFENSE: 19.7 (No. 16)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 490.6 (No. 20)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 339.8 (No. 25)
SCORING MARGIN: +20.7
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – Bye Week
Nov. 15 – at #25 Wisconsin
Nov. 22 – vs. Minnesota
Nov. 28 – at Iowa (Friday)
Dec. 7 – Big 10 Championship Game
ANALYSIS: Nebraska’s resume is what is keeping it back right now. The Cornhuskers have a very good loss, a 5-point loss on the road against #7 Michigan State. Of course if anyone actually watched that game it wasn’t
really that close. But on paper it looks good. What has hurt Nebraska is it lacks any good wins, but over the last three weeks Miami has whipped some opponents, which makes Nebraska’s victory over the Hurricanes look better and better. If Miami can somehow beat Florida State next weekend (Nov. 15) it could possibly vault them into the Top 25, which would be huge for Nebraska. If that does not happen, Nebraska still has three chances for quality wins. A season ending road win over Iowa would actually be a good win, although it won’t be a poll changer most likely. Next weekend, when Nebraska travels to #25 Wisconsin, is a chance for Nebraska to get another good win. A home win over Minnesota also won’t be a game changer, but it’s just one more quality win over a quality opponent. Of course, none of those games would be as big as a Big 10 title win over the winner of this weekend’s Michigan State/Ohio State game.
Nebraska is going to have a tough road to get there, but they do have an outside shot at making the playoffs.
14. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (7-1)
KEY WINS: Cincinnati (50-28), at Maryland (52-24), at Penn State (31-24)
LOSS: Virginia Tech (21-35)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.6 (No. 4)
SCORING DEFENSE: 19.9 (No. 17)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 505.1 (No. 14)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 300.0 (No. 8)
SCORING MARGIN: +25.7
REMAINING SCHEDULE
Nov. 8 – at #8 Michigan State
Nov. 15 – at Minnesota
Nov. 22 – vs. Indiana
Nov. 29 – vs. Michigan
Dec. 7 – Big 10 Championship Game
ANALYSIS: On paper there is a lot to like about Ohio State’s resume. The Buckeyes are 7-1, they are ranked in the Top 10 in scoring offense and total defense, the Top 20 in scoring defense and total offense and the Buckeye are winning games by a margin of 25.7 points per game.
But the problem for Ohio State is the fact its schedule has been a joke up to this point in time. Ohio State has zero wins over Top 25 teams, but worse yet is the fact its opponents thus far have a 33-36 combined record. Ohio State’s loss was also to a 4-5 Virginia Tech team that has lost to East Carolina, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Miami, Boston College and is currently last in the ACC Coastal Division. A lot of that could change this weekend if the Buckeyes can get a road win over #8 Michigan State. Troubling for Ohio State is the fact that even if it beats Michigan State, a road game against Minnesota and home games against Indiana and Michigan won’t exactly impress voters.
Notre Dame likely needs Ohio State to win this weekend in the matchup between two Top 15 teams.
