The Road to the Playoff

[pumpdog20]

Well there's only one thing to do: "Win the whole fuckin' thing".

 

[T Town Tommy]

Whether or not he is a huge FSU homer doesn't negate the fact that I agree with his assessment of the top 25 polls and the built in advantage the SEC has.

The SEC has proven they belong in the Top 25 polls year after year. Their record against other conferences, bowls, etc show that they are typically pretty close to where they are ranked. This year? Guess we can wait and see as we really do not know much about any team in any conference.

Remember what I said about him when he puts Notre Dame on blast in a few weeks. His opinion of the SEC will pale in comparison to what he will likely say about the Irish. Maybe your opinion of him changes then.

 

[koonja]

JMO:

My opinion of South Carolina's defense really couldn't get lower after watching them vs. AM.

So that basically whipes out my opinion of Georgia. There's no excuse for why they couldn't impose their will on SC's defense after watching AM go for 700 yards on them.

LSU should have/could have lost to a Wisconsin team who does not have a defense. It's Wisconsin, and it's the most down they've been in a while actually. Not to mention two defenders (including NT) went down and didnt return in the 1st half of that game. All things equal, I'd take Wisconsin over LSU if there was a rematch.

So that leaves us Bama, who played even with WVU and ended up with a couple more plays/turnovers to win the game. No excuse for a first game, it's not like Bama was bored. I think they'll get to great, but they're not right now, IMO.

So that leaves you with AM as the only team I think is great right now in the SEC.

*Haven't seen Auburn*.

But fear not, SEC fans, cause you've been given the benefit of the doubt with incredible pre-season rankings, so now that you start playing directional schools, your record will be taken at face value when you start playing each other and a loss won't mean as much since you'll be losing to a top 5 team.

If we get 3 players back and stay healthy, I'd be happy to play LSU/SC/Georgia in a bowl game. They really don't scare me. Auburn, AM, and Bama when they get it figured out, I wouldn't want to play. But those other teams are not great.

 

[T Town Tommy]

JMO:

My opinion of South Carolina's defense really couldn't get lower after watching them vs. AM.

So that basically whipes out my opinion of Georgia. There's no excuse for why they couldn't impose their will on SC's defense after watching AM go for 700 yards on them.

LSU should have/could have lost to a Wisconsin team who does not have a defense. It's Wisconsin, and it's the most down they've been in a while actually. Not to mention two defenders (including NT) went down and didnt return in the 1st half of that game. All things equal, I'd take Wisconsin over LSU if there was a rematch.

So that leaves us Bama, who played even with WVU and ended up with a couple more plays/turnovers to win the game. No excuse for a first game, it's not like Bama was bored. I think they'll get to great, but they're not right now, IMO.

So that leaves you with AM as the only team I think is great right now in the SEC.

*Haven't seen Auburn*.

But fear not, SEC fans, cause you've been given the benefit of the doubt with incredible pre-season rankings, so now that you start playing directional schools, your record will be taken at face value when you start playing each other and a loss won't mean as much since you'll be losing to a top 5 team.

LOL... and where does those powerhouse opponents the Irish beat justify their Top 10 ranking koon? If you gonna run with the big dogs... you gotta win the big ones. The SEC has done that... time and time again.

Besides, you should be worried with your opponents and not the teams in the SEC. Plenty of time left to see how it all shakes out.

 

[koonja]

LOL... and where does those powerhouse opponents the Irish beat justify their Top 10 ranking koon? If you gonna run with the big dogs... you gotta win the big ones. The SEC has done that... time and time again.

Besides, you should be worried with your opponents and not the teams in the SEC. Plenty of time left to see how it all shakes out.[/QUOTE]

Oh you just wait until October 18th at 11pm and I'll have the fun bus fueled up .

If you don't buy my theory then you won't see my point (which is fine, you don't have to if I'm not making it clear).

Yes, it will work itself out, but SEC's given an advantage in that they haven't beaten anyone either. What's the best victory in the whole conference? AM over SC who couldn't stop OMM on a fly sweep? Maybe I've missed the world beaters they've taken down. Not being sarcastic, maybe they have big wins I haven't seen.

My point is, they get these lofty preseason rankings, based on beating no one, and they haven't looked good in doing it (Bama over WVU, LSU over Wisconsin - who's not good this year -). Then they beat up on shit schools for 3/4 weeks, then everyone's in the top 5 so if they lose, it really doesn't matter because they lost to a 'juggarnaunt'.

Name a SEC victory that was more impressive than shutting out Michigan 37-0? There isn't one IMO. But ND is behind all of the 'world beaters' who had less impressive victories, but will remain in FRONT of ND for the next couple of weeks, even though ND will be playing vastly better opponents.

It's an obvious up hill battle IMO if you're not in the SEC.

And...

 

[greyhammer90]

FIX THE QUOTES NOW BEFORE THIS GETS OUT OF HAND

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

FIX THE QUOTES NOW BEFORE THIS GETS OUT OF HAND[/QUOTE]

why

 

[greyhammer90]

why

I'll kill you.

 

[greyhammer90]

LOL... and where does those powerhouse opponents the Irish beat justify their Top 10 ranking koon? If you gonna run with the big dogs... you gotta win the big ones. The SEC has done that... time and time again.

Besides, you should be worried with your opponents and not the teams in the SEC. Plenty of time left to see how it all shakes out.

Troll troll troll your boat.

When exactly did Ole Miss win a "big one"?

 

[koonja]

Troll troll troll your boat.

When exactly did Ole Miss win a "big one"?

Ole Miss in the top 10. Ridiculous. So when they finally face a legit team in Bama, they'll losing to the #2-3 team, so won't fall. #FoolProof.

 

[tussin]

Ole Miss in the top 10 is an absolute joke. You can't even argue they deserve it based on past results; since 2012 they have won a game against exactly 1 team that finished the season ranked.

 

[irishfan]

Long way away but curious to hear if you guys would rather we....

1) beat FSU (who goes 12-1) and lose to a 10-2 team like ASU or Stanford

2) go 11-1 with a close loss to 13-0 FSU

Not sure which one is better

 

[RDU Irish]

So Tommy, how many losses can the SEC winner get away with before they drop from the playoff? Their improved lower tier of the conference increases the odds of extra losses, especially when consider the top teams are not as strong as years past (which it does not seem like you are disputing).


Consider some of these after thought teams (and yes I consider Ole Miss in this category despite their ridiculous #10 ranking). This batch can't lose all of these games, statistically they should pull out maybe 20% of these games so that each team averages about one upset. I'm guessing this year the pain is spread around rather than a few teams falling apart leaving LSU/Bama to fight it out on top.

Ole Miss - Bama, Auburn, LSU, TAMU
Tennessee - GA, Bama, SoCar, Mizzou
Arkansas - Auburn (L 45-21), TAMU, Bama, GA, LSU, Mizzou
Mizzou - SoCar, GA, TAMU (Arguably the easiest SEC schedule out there)
Kentucky - SoCar, LSU, Mizzou, GA (took FL to three OTs last week)
Florida - Bama, LSU, Mizzou, GA, SoCar
MState - LSU, TAMU, Auburn, Bama

 

[greyhammer90]

Long way away but curious to hear if you guys would rather we....

1) beat FSU (who goes 12-1) and lose to a 10-2 team like ASU or Stanford

2) go 11-1 with a close loss to 13-0 FSU

Not sure which one is better

Beat FSU after losing to Stanford. Hype train rolling.

 

[irishfan]

Either way, our chances come down to going 3-1 against Stanford, Florida State, ASU, and USC. We should be 7-20 pt favorites against Cuse, UNC, Navy, Louosville, and NW. None of those games are road games, we have no excuse losing them.

We have no cupcakes left, but this schedule is more than manageable to go 11-1.

 

[koonja]

I think it's impossible to predict without the 3 suspended players. I love what I see without them, but everyone is a major impact player and that's 3 first day NFL picks. Those guys come back and I'm not afraid of anyone on our schedule.

 

[MNIrishman]

The SEC has proven they belong in the Top 25 polls year after year. Their record against other conferences, bowls, etc show that they are typically pretty close to where they are ranked. This year? Guess we can wait and see as we really do not know much about any team in any conference.

Remember what I said about him when he puts Notre Dame on blast in a few weeks. His opinion of the SEC will pale in comparison to what he will likely say about the Irish. Maybe your opinion of him changes then.

Not sure where this proof is coming from. SEC has a losing record to the Big East (mcubed.net : NCAA Football : SEC : Records against conferences) and hasn't won the Sugar Bowl since 2010. Mostly the proof is a circle jerk of:

1) ESPN reinforces its investment with unearned high rankings.
2) SEC teams play each other which looks great.
3) The winning team gains more spots for a win than the losing team loses
4) Everyone is ranked highly.
5) Florida loses to Georgia Southern at home.
6) SEC! SEC! SEC!

Head-to-head, the SEC is about the same as the PAC-12 this year, maybe a little worse.

 

[IrishLion]

The SEC is king, but only because of the top 4/5 teams in the west and the top 1/2 teams in the East, meaning there are 7 very respectable squads...

The problem is that the SEC "perception" makes the bottom of the SEC out to be on a higher level than the rest of college football, which simply isn't true. The lower half of the league, in reality, does NOT meet the perception that is set. The SEC west is a gauntlet, sure, but the entire league schedule is made out to be a gauntlet, which irritates me because the bottom half of the SEC is usually garbage.

So the perception comes from "oh, these SEC teams play the best competition week-in-and-week-out," when really there are plenty of garbage matchups to go around, particularly in the east.

The other thing is... I used to believe that the entire league was on a platform myself. But then when A&M and Mizzou came in, and were immediately competitive despite being Big XII squads, alarm bells went off.

Edit: My point is that the SEC has produced the best team, legitimately, 7 out of the last 8 years or whatever the number is for the consecutive-natty's streak. However, the league is much more fallible than what people think. The absolute best example, which has already been mentioned: Ole Miss.

What a crock of sh*t that Ole Miss is viewed as a top-10 squad.

 

[RDU Irish]

Let's look at bowl games, where you are forced to play respectable out of conference opponents. However, the SEC has stacked this schedule to their favor such that they are all close to home and play inferior conference opponents. No bowl tie ins with the Pac12 and three I think with the B1G usually including something like the 5th and 6th best teams of the B1G.

 

[General Colon Bowel]

All this hypothesizing doesn't mean anything. Just let the season play out. It's possible that we go undefeated, while beating the ACC champ (FSU), B1G champ (Mich), Pac12 Champ (USC or Stanford), CUSA champ (Rice), a 10-2 Navy team, and a plethora of teams who end up 2nd or 3rd in their conference (ASU, Stanford or USC, Syracuse, Louisville, UNC) and we finish with the #1 SOS. But it's also possible that we finish 9-3 with games against zero conference champions, and a relatively mediocre SOS. The point is, it's been three weeks. Let's save the arguments about SOS and who deserves to be where until we actually have a good portion of the season to assess things

Plus the best way to not have to worry about SOS and whether or not we're going to get screwed out of the playoffs is to win. Win every game and we're in.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I thought about including the top-10 teams, and maybe I will when the tenth is not Ole Miss. I agree with others that Ole Miss will probably finish 7-5 and so far from the top-10 they won't remember what it looked like. But then again, I don't know how many teams in other conferences would finish much better if they played in that division. I think Ole Miss would probably be the 3rd or 4th best team in the B1G and go 10-2 if they were so fortunate to be from Illinois and not Mississippi.

 

[koonja]

All this hypothesizing doesn't mean anything. Just let the season play out. It's possible that we go undefeated, while beating the ACC champ (FSU), B1G champ (Mich), Pac12 Champ (USC or Stanford), CUSA champ (Rice), a 10-2 Navy team, and a plethora of teams who end up 2nd or 3rd in their conference (ASU, Stanford or USC, Syracuse, Louisville, UNC) and we finish with the #1 SOS. But it's also possible that we finish 9-3 with games against zero conference champions, and a relatively mediocre SOS. The point is, it's been three weeks. Let's save the arguments about SOS and who deserves to be where until we actually have a good portion of the season to assess things

Dude, it's a BYE week. AKA time to fight, lol.

 

[Rhode Irish]

All this hypothesizing doesn't mean anything. Just let the season play out. It's possible that we go undefeated, while beating the ACC champ (FSU), B1G champ (Mich), Pac12 Champ (USC or Stanford), CUSA champ (Rice), a 10-2 Navy team, and a plethora of teams who end up 2nd or 3rd in their conference (ASU, Stanford or USC, Syracuse, Louisville, UNC) and we finish with the #1 SOS. But it's also possible that we finish 9-3 with games against zero conference champions, and a relatively mediocre SOS. The point is, it's been three weeks. Let's save the arguments about SOS and who deserves to be where until we actually have a good portion of the season to assess things

Plus the best way to not have to worry about SOS and whether or not we're going to get screwed out of the playoffs is to win. Win every game and we're in.

Us talking about it will not interfere with the season's ability to play itself out, I promise. The idea here is to provide a place for people who are interested in how it unfolds to talk about it as it goes on, as sports fans are wont to do.

 

[RDU Irish]

Since 2000

Tennessee is 1-5 against the Pac12, 2-1 vs. B1G, 1-2 vs the Big12, 2-4 vs. the ACC. Pretty crappy. 6-12 overall, 1.4 matchups per year

Ole Miss has NEVER played a Pac12 team, no B1G since 1990, 5-5 vs Big12, 1-2 vs the ACC (translation, avoid power conferences like the plague), overall 6-7 for one matchup per year

Miss State - 0-2 vs Pac12, 1-1 vs B1G, 1-1 vs Big12, 1-2 vs ACC (overall 3-6, .7 matchups per year)

Arkansas - 0-2 vs Pac12, 0-3 vs B1G, 7-4 vs Big12, no ACC since 1995 (overall 7-9, 1.2 matchups per year)

Kentucky - no Pac12 since 1976, 4-2 vs B1G, no Big12 since 1983, 2-1 vs ACC (overall 6-3)

As for more name brand "institutions"

Florida - no Pac12 since 1989, 4-3 vs B1G, 1-0 vs Big12, 10-8 vs ACC (pretty much FSU), overall 15-11

Auburn - 3-2 vs Pac12, 3-2 vs B1G, 2-0 vs Big12, 4-6 vs ACC (overall 12-10)

LSU - 7-0 vs Pac12, 4-2 vs B1G, 3-1 vs Big12, 5-1 vs ACC (pretty damn impressive at 19-4)

Georgia - 2-0 vs Pac12, 4-2 vs B1G, 3-2 vs Big12, 18-3 vs ACC (thanks GT), overall 27-7, 2.6 per year

SoCar - no Pac12 since 1983, 5-1 vs B1G, 0-1 vs Big12, 12-9 vs ACC (overall 17-11, 2.1/matchups per year)

BAMA - 0-2 vs Pac12, 4-1 vs B1G, 5-4 vs Big12, 5-1 vs ACC (overall 14-6 for 1.5 major conference match-ups per year)


so other than the top handful of teams in the SEC, they haven't dominated. You can also attribute bowl games to probably over half of the power conference matchups the entire conference faces, the other half mostly goes to interstate rivalries (SoCar vs Clemson, Florida vs FSU, Georgia vs GT) other than those games there isn't a heck of a lot of challenging games and the Pac12 is obviously avoided like the plague (13-13 vs Pac12 since 2000)

 

[GowerND11]

Let's look at bowl games, where you are forced to play respectable out of conference opponents. However, the SEC has stacked this schedule to their favor such that they are all close to home and play inferior conference opponents. No bowl tie ins with the Pac12 and three I think with the B1G usually including something like the 5th and 6th best teams of the B1G.

Everything is close to home. Florida won't leave the state for OOC games. When SEC teams leave the South they travel in Agust or September, and sneak that FCS OOC game at home at the end of October.

It's admirable what some SEC teams do in the beginning of the season with SOME OOC games (Alabama, I credit them for playing Michigan, Va Tech, WVU, PSU, even when they all aren't at the top of their game.) that are against decent Power 5 teams, but they do so, as I said, in the beginning of the season. I'd love to see Florida come north of the Mason-Dixon, even in October. Can you imagine an SEC team traveling north to play ND, OSU, Meatchicken, PSU, Oregon, etc at the end of October or into November?

Remember what happened to Miami (ACC, I know) in the Sun Bowl a few years back. Our guys wore short sleeves, while Miami players just did not look comfortable at all.

 

[Jerry]

Long way away but curious to hear if you guys would rather we....

1) beat FSU (who goes 12-1) and lose to a 10-2 team like ASU or Stanford

2) go 11-1 with a close loss to 13-0 FSU

Not sure which one is better

It's probably better to lose to Stanford early, then beat FSU. That win gets you a huge boost and then you finishing off the season climbing every week.

 

[RDU Irish]

Summary of SEC since 2000

vs. Pac12 - 13-13

vs. B1G - 30-19

vs. Big12 - 28-20

vs. ACC - 60-37 (GaTech 9-15 vs the SEC, Duke 1-7, WF 5-6, Clemson 13-14, FSU 9-10, NCST 0-4, UNC 2-3, UVA 1-3, Miami 6-3, doesn't seem to add up must be something with realignment and how the mcubed site calcs the wins)

 

[IHateMarkMay]

Alright try to stay with my thoughts, im a bit scatter brained from lack of sleep.

FSU is huge, more for us than for them.

If ND loses to FSU and beats every other team, the media will claim that FSU put ND in their place, no need for a rematch in the playoff.

If ND beats FSU and goes undefeated, playoff for sure. FSU will win every other game and be in there as well because the media can't get enough of them. I feel like the media would want a rematch in the playoff, and you know how hard it is to beat the same team twice...

Reading back it looks like a double standard so I hope it makes sense.

 

[Blaise]

I want to knock off the impossible "Dream Team" of FSU at their house... Means more... I just don't see any way we do that unless we get the suspended players back and get healthy

 

[Black Irish]

Long way away but curious to hear if you guys would rather we....

1) beat FSU (who goes 12-1) and lose to a 10-2 team like ASU or Stanford

2) go 11-1 with a close loss to 13-0 FSU

Not sure which one is better

I was leaning towards scenario #2 but after reading what's on here I'm starting to lean towards #1. FSU is the pinnacle of a really tough 3 game stretch. Better to start bad (close loss to Stanford, who hopefully wins out afterwards) then go for 2 straight wins over a good UNC team and then slay the giant in Tallahassee.

It's interesting how big of a difference it makes between going undefeated and having 1 loss, not just for the Irish, but almost any team. If you are a top 10-15 team right now and win out, you're in, just by virtue of the fact that it's almost inconceivable that there will be more than 1-2 undefeated teams from the Power 5 at season's end. But there could be 3-4 one loss teams. 11-1 would be incredible for the Irish this season, but they could still get frozen out with that record depending on how everything else shakes out.