2014 NCAA football Real $$$ Bets

[DomeX2 eNVy]

While betting vBucks is fun (thanks McGibblets, Jade, et al); I thought it would be fun for people to discuss what they are really betting on and more importantly "The WHY".

I will track my bets, the amount, and running totals - so you all can see what an idiot I am. I'd love to hear others opinions and maybe even follow their lead - if the argument is sufficient. I am a casual, 'for fun' bettor; so I rarely will wager over $100, and more often in the $20-$25 range - just to have action.

Anyway, I made my first 3 bets of the year this week on college:

$80 (-1.25) on Florida State to win under 11.5 games
$50 (+1.05) on Ohio State to win under 10.5 games
$40 (-1.05) on Notre Dame to win over 7.5 games

*these are all for the regular season and require 12 games to be played

Running total: Win = 0; Loss = 0; Pending = $170

I really like the Florida State bet, and obviously I'm not the only one with a -1.25 price. I was actually shocked to see 11.5 as the total. Experts at fine sites like ESPN are ranting about how easy their schedule is. Maybe, and they will probably be the most talented team in all their games; but the ACC isn't a joke, and even Duke is of good quality these days. So for this bet to lose, FSU has to beat: Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, and Florida. Granted all but the Miami game are at home, but it is easy to see at least one let down; and I wouldn't be surprised if it was against Boston College which is sandwiched between Miami and Florida.
But the main reason I like this bet is how improbable it is for any team to go undefeated for two regular seasons. The last team I found to do this was Nebraska about 20 years ago. That was a different time, and their schedule was less intimidating. Even Alabama couldn't do this while still winning back to back championships. Of course I'm praying it is the Irish that win me this one, but I'm not getting my hopes up . . . yet.

The bet on Ohio Stat is higher risk and one I can see arguing the other side. Yes they have won a lot the past couple years; yes Urban is a good coach and knows how to win; and YES their schedule is soft and then has extra padding like a pillow top mattress. However, I feel this is the worst OSU team in years. They are returning 1 defensive back, and Taylor Decker is their only full time returning OL starter. I don't think their recruiting classes are that solid; nor their position coaching. I see them losing to MSU, and at least one of Navy, Cincinnati, or Va Tech. Who knows maybe even scUM can play them if things go right. Anyway I think they need to be perfect every week to win 11 or 12.

And then there is the total homer bet on ND. 7.5 seems low with this team and coaching staff. If they can win 8 with Tommy at QB against an almost as difficult schedule; I sure hope they win at least that many this year. I am worried about the schedule; timing of games; and the defensive unknowns - so there is risk. However, again I'm not alone and I'm glad I got in early at -1.05. I recently saw this line moved to -1.55; big money coming in on ND. Then there were less professional sites that advertised 9.5 as the total. Assuming the Irish take care of business against Rice, Navy, Syracuse, Northwestern, and Purdue (no guarantee at all - even Rice scares me a bit); and win the ones they should against Michigan and Louisville (again, not guaranteed but I think will happen). That means they only need to win one game against the big 5: FSU, USC, UNC, Stanford, and Arizona St - I can easily seeing ND winning 2 or 3 of these. Maybe too much cool aid here, as I could see us going as low as 6-6; but I think 9-3 is more likely.

I'll be looking for other lines for season totals: thinking hard on UNLV over 4.5 after going 7-6 last year and improving (imo). Let me know what you guys think.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Awesome idea.

One nitpick...Ohio State was the last team to have consecutive undefeated regular seasons...they did it the last two years.

And as much as I hate OSU, I don't like your bet there. But I hope you're right!!!

 

[IrishLax]

Would never, ever have touched that OSU bet. If I did it would've been to bet the other way.

I like ND to go over 7.5 even if the early lines say ND should only win around 6.8 games. Unless we have a rash of injuries at DT and LB I just can't see us failing to get to 8.

I've got a lot of thoughts on individual early lines, with the best of the year being ND -3 versus Navy. Basically free money.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Awesome idea.

One nitpick...Ohio State was the last team to have consecutive undefeated regular seasons...they did it the last two years.

And as much as I hate OSU, I don't like your bet there. But I hope you're right!!!

Shit, you're right - I looked right through the B1G champ game. It is still tough to do unless you totally schedule patsies. Damn it.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Would never, ever have touched that OSU bet. If I did it would've been to bet the other way.

I like ND to go over 7.5 even if the early lines say ND should only win around 6.8 games. Unless we have a rash of injuries at DT and LB I just can't see us failing to get to 8.

I've got a lot of thoughts on individual early lines, with the best of the year being ND -3 versus Navy. Basically free money.

I haven't seen any single games posted in town yet; but I agree with you. OSU could run the table or win 11; and most people do too which is why I'm getting + money fading them. I just think they have more questions than the Irish. A new OL is worrisome to me.
It will be interesting to see the Navy/ND line come game week vs now.

 

[IrishLax]

I haven't seen any single games posted in town yet; but I agree with you. OSU could run the table or win 11; and most people do too which is why I'm getting + money fading them. I just think they have more questions than the Irish. A new OL is worrisome to me.
It will be interesting to see the Navy/ND line come game week vs now.

Golden nugget put out some early lines, and there are online books that have them. When I was in town a couple weeks ago I couldn't find anywhere on the strip to bet early lines though... so that was a huge bummer as I love that kind of stuff.

 

[irishfan]

I'll be looking for other lines for season totals: thinking hard on UNLV over 4.5 after going 7-6 last year and improving (imo). Let me know what you guys think.

First off, love this thread. Always try and bet on a couple games a week. I had a 5-game parlay last year where ND/ASU was the 5th and final game and won just over $2,000 on it when ND held on to win. I think I lost that $2,000 the next couple weekends, but that's a minor detail.

Secondly, isn't UNLV facing a bowl ban this year as well as losing 4 practice hours a week? They might not be very motivated this season and I know they lost their QB and RB.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I didn't get a chance to make any decisions, but thought I'd discuss some of the things I looked at. As irishfan mentioned, UNLV (and Oklahoma St) are facing reduced practice hours and bowl bans for academic reasons - so I'm staying away from that one - they have the talent to win 5, but will less preparation and motivation kill the Rebels?

So I started looking at the bottom: and Cal was there at 2.5 wins which seems ridiculously low for a Pac12 team with some decent CA talent. Then I looked at their schedule:
Northwestern
Sacramento St
Arizona
Colorado
Washington St
Washington
UCLA
Oregon
Oregon St
USC
Stanford
BYU

Outside of Sac St, who are they going to beat from this list? I think they'd have to beat Northwestern and Colorado and start 3-1 because they should lose their last 8. If I had to bet, I'd probably go under; but I two many things can happen to bet under 2.5 so I'm staying away from this one.

The next interesting one was Kentucky at 3.5 wins. Their out of conference games are TN Martin; Ohio; UL Monroe; and Lousiville. There is a good chance they could win 3 of these with their SEC talent which means they need to improve their SEC record from 0-8 to 1-7; I think they beat Vanderbilt and maybe an upset somewhere. If Stoops is as good as he is supposed to be and some of his young recruits step up, I think they could get that 4th win this year. I'm going to research a bit more this week and maybe play it. What do you guys think? Bettors are liking the over as it is (-180) which makes it look like easy money, but not a lot of it.

The other odd looking low ball is West Virginia at over/under 4.5 wins. However, this team that only won 4 last year is probably worse this year. Not going to play it, but it is amazing how fast this team fell - and money is on the under.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Interesting take on teams and how they do against the spread.

Statistically Speaking

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Week 1 - picks

I am not a fan of betting week 1 with so little good info to base things on; but I was craving some action. So I'm starting with 3 bets; and I made one more season bet.

$80 on Texas under 7.5 wins at -1.05. I thing Strong is a good coach and will get Texas back in top form; but I think there is too much of a culture clash for anything good to happen this year. Multiple dismissals, kids struggling with how hard camp was; he has to spend this year on the mental aspects more than winning - imo. I'm against most bettors here; but I like the price - which is why I stayed away from the Kentucky over bet (which I like, just not to win pennies)

This week - I had to get some action asap #degenerate. So I put a small $20 on Texas A&M +10.5. Don't ask me why other than I think S.Carolina will come out flat and not be worried about a JF-less Aggie team. Mostly I want action and didn't feel confident enough in Washington State to win by 8.

I hate betting ND games, but over 51 seems obvious; so I put $60 there. Rice is good; but there defense was abused by decent teams last year. ND should be able to put up 35-40 points, and I doubt our defense will be anywhere near a shutout.

And finally, going back to my opening post. I took Navy +15.5 for $80. (and I love that I got OSU under early at -1.05, now -1.65 - thanks Braxton!!). I just think Navy is the wrong team to start off with against an inexperienced defense, regardless of talent levels. Navy runs the clock, keeps it close, breaks some big plays (both pass and run), and has a chance to win it late.

Running total: Win = 0; Loss = 0; Pending = $410

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Thanks to A&M and the SEC East sucking, the season is off to a good start - just wish I would have put more down. Good thing I'm not home to blow the winnings on an emotional bet (I'm looking at you Appalachian State). Go Irish!

Running total: Win = $18; Loss = 0; Net = + $18; Pending = $390; record (1-0)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Wow did Navy let me down. That bet looked solid with a 3rd quarter lead - but that happens. I easily covered the other two, to end 2-1 for the first week; but down due to losing the big bet. On to week two.

Running total: Win = $72; Loss = $80; Net = - $8; Pending = $250; record (2-1)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

After licking my wounds from that Navy meltdown, I found some good action in week 2 - one of my favorite weeks to bet. I have a base theory that most people are emotion and over-react to the point of stupidity. (just read some of the threads on this site - lol). So I like to see big line moves and go the other way.

Starting off with tomorrow's game. I was surprised to see Arizona only a 7 point favorite on the road at a personal favorite mascot, Texas San Antonio Roadrunners. Based on their upset against Houston and being at home, the line came down from 8. Even though UTSA has a very good defense, Arizona has a too much talent and speed - hi Davonte!

In a big game, how is Stanford only a 2.5 point favorite against USC? The game opened 4 points, but everyone loves USC after a strong performance against a lame Fresno St. team. Stanford should pound on USC at home and wear them out late to win by at least a field goal - if not many of them.

How is everyone in love with Northwestern? Because they pounded hopeless Cal at home? Wait . . . what? They have gone from a 2.5 to 7 point favorite against NIU, who easily covered their non-game and 40 point line last week. Maybe a bunch of Chicago money came to Vegas because Illinois' line moved 5 points as well.

And the final bet I've made is ND over 55.5. If Tommy boy could put up 30; and our defense has some 'communication errors' - this one should be easily in the 60s.

I have some friends betting big on MSU getting 13.5 against Oregon - another moving line. I haven't booked this one yet, but I am considering it along with the under - maybe a good parlay opportunity for a small investment.

I was hoping to bet Alabama to prove themselves and Mississippi against Vandy; but 40.5 is too much to lay on Alabama's question mark offense; and the Mississippi line moved away from 14 to 20 before I could get a bet down.

So in summary:
$50 on Arizona -7
$80 on Stanford - 2.5
$50 on NIU +7
$60 on ND/UM over 55.5


Running total: Win = $72; Loss = $80; Net = - $8; Pending = $490; record (2-1)

 

[calvegas04]

After licking my wounds from that Navy meltdown, I found some good action in week 2 - one of my favorite weeks to bet. I have a base theory that most people are emotion and over-react to the point of stupidity. (just read some of the threads on this site - lol). So I like to see big line moves and go the other way.

Starting off with tomorrow's game. I was surprised to see Arizona only a 7 point favorite on the road at a personal favorite mascot, Texas San Antonio Roadrunners. Based on their upset against Houston and being at home, the line came down from 8. Even though UTSA has a very good defense, Arizona has a too much talent and speed - hi Davonte!

In a big game, how is Stanford only a 2.5 point favorite against USC? The game opened 4 points, but everyone loves USC after a strong performance against a lame Fresno St. team. Stanford should pound on USC at home and wear them out late to win by at least a field goal - if not many of them.

How is everyone in love with Northwestern? Because they pounded hopeless Cal at home? Wait . . . what? They have gone from a 2.5 to 7 point favorite against NIU, who easily covered their non-game and 40 point line last week. Maybe a bunch of Chicago money came to Vegas because Illinois' line moved 5 points as well.

And the final bet I've made is ND over 55.5. If Tommy boy could put up 30; and our defense has some 'communication errors' - this one should be easily in the 60s.

I have some friends betting big on MSU getting 13.5 against Oregon - another moving line. I haven't booked this one yet, but I am considering it along with the under - maybe a good parlay opportunity for a small investment.

I was hoping to bet Alabama to prove themselves and Mississippi against Vandy; but 40.5 is too much to lay on Alabama's question mark offense; and the Mississippi line moved away from 14 to 20 before I could get a bet down.

So in summary:
$50 on Arizona -7
$80 on Stanford - 2.5
$50 on NIU +7
$60 on ND/UM over 55.5


Running total: Win = $72; Loss = $80; Net = - $8; Pending = $490; record (2-1)

I like ur thinking this week... Where in town do you put in ur bets or do you go online? And what are ur thoughts on ASU vs new mexico? Im thinkin ASU is going to stomp on them hard. And I also think Texas beats byu by more than 2, I know BYU is tough but I don't think they pull this one off.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

I like ur thinking this week... Where in town do you put in ur bets or do you go online? And what are ur thoughts on ASU vs new mexico? Im thinkin ASU is going to stomp on them hard. And I also think Texas beats byu by more than 2, I know BYU is tough but I don't think they pull this one off.

I shop around because I like to think that -2.5 is way better than -3. So I look at Vegasinsider.com before betting. If I want an MGM line I go to Mandalay; Station = Green Valley Ranch; sometimes I'll go out of my way to LVH; and I have the Cantor Gaming app on my phone as well. I tend to stay away from any Caesar's location out of principle.

I am anti-Texas (see my under pick) but I think I may be wrong and you could be right this week. Should be an interesting game.
I haven't looked into New Mexico, so I don't know on that game - but theoretically I agree it should be a strong ASU showing. Good luck.
Go Irish

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Well other than the Michigan smack down, the week kinda sucked for me. Arizona failed to cover, Stanford had the cover with a couple chip shots but failed, and while ND was right on track, I expected more scoring. At least NIU did their part.

My season bets look good with ND winning, OSU and Texas losing, and FSU looking beatable again.

Quite a few I like this week, but some interesting games to see how teams really react.
I like Central Florida to upset Missouri, but I'm not confident enough to bet it. I also have an old theory that Michigan takes two weeks to recover from ND ruining their season, so Miami looks good at +33; however it is an old theory, and after re-watching the game, I thought Michigan actually looked not too bad - so I'm leaving this money on the table.

What I am betting is:
OSU -31.5 vs Kent for $20
Duke -14 vs Kansas for $60
South Alabama +14 vs Mississippi St for $50
ND/Purdue over 57 for $40
Boston College +17 vs USC for $80
NIU -9.5 at UNLV for $100

While I'm obviously not high on OSU, Kent is pathetic losing to Ohio and S. Alabama already. Plus I expect OSU to try to prove they don't suck by routing a weaker opponent.
How can Kansas only be a two touchdown dog on the road against a quality opponent. Oh yeah, schematic advantage . . . I'll take the better coach in this one.
Mississippi St hasn't really impressed me, but more importantly will be looking through this game to LSU. MSU should squeak by, but I like S. Alabama to cover in what is a big game for them.
Maybe I'm stupid, but there should be big points in INDY Saturday night. Purdue's defense is horrible, ND has the weapons and typically come out firing in the Shamrock games. I see lots of Irish backups giving up some late scores to push the total over.
* This one may be emotional, but I don't think USC will play well after beating Stanford and reading about how awesome they are. I'm hoping that BC treats this game big - and they should as it is a night game - and keeps it close.
And the easy pick of the week is against the home team. Why doesn't NIU get any respect. The won for me last week by 8 at Northwestern; you're telling me they can't win by 10 at UNLV who barely squeaked by Northern Colorado at home?


Running total: Win = $117; Loss = $270; Net = - $153; Pending = $600; record (3-4)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Feeling pretty good tonight - though I wish the Irish would have scored more!

I went 4-2 this week with my big bet coming in. (The USC game isn't official, but no way they win by 17.

I wish I would have manned up on the OSU bet and gone with Baylor and S. Carolina ( like I did with vBucks).

So I won OSU, Duke, BC, and NIU for a total of +$234; unfortunately Miss St is not their usual self and may be a contender - and we all know about ND.

Despite the money, I'm more happy the Irish are 3-0. And USC sucks!!!

Running total: Win = $341; Loss = $360; Net = - $19; Pending = $250; record (7-6)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Not seeing a lot that I like so far, but I did put two bets down for Week 4.

Starting with tonight I took the over 63.5. Auburn should be able to score at will coming off the bye week, and I think Kansas State will too. All four of the games these teams have played have been over. Interestingly, Auburn has covered their last 13 games; but I think that might end tonight - but I'm not going to bet it as they always seem to get lucky late in the game. I'm hoping Auburn looks past a non-SEC opponent and sleep walk through a Thursday night road game.

Duke looks like an easy cover against a 1-2 Tulane at home. Duke tends to play better at home (imo) and took out Kansas last week by 38.

We'll see if there are any others I find later.

Duke -17 vs Tulane for $50
Auburn/KSU over 63.5 for $40



Running total: Win = $341; Loss = $360; Net = - $19; Pending = $350; record (7-6)

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Did Winston being out a half mess with that game very much?

 

[Irish Insanity]

Wjere do you place your real bets

 

[Redbar]

I think I like Rice -6 1/2 at home against Old Dominion.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Did Winston being out a half mess with that game very much?

FSU opened a 22 point favorite; it has dropped to around 15. I was expecting FSU to roll as this would be a showcase game, but now it is too dangerous to touch. But a big move due to Winston

Wjere do you place your real bets

Usually at Mandalay Bay, Green Valley, or on my phone app (Cantor Gaming linked to Las Vegas Sands). I go to where the best line is, so I shop around - so occasionally I'll drive farther to LVH (now Westlake) or wherever to save a half point or more.

I think I like Rice -6 1/2 at home against Old Dominion.

Rice opened -10, so -6.5 seems like good value. They are probably better than people perceive because of how ND and TAM played against them. They've had a rough schedule to start. This one might be worth looking into; I'm not familiar yet with Old Dominion. Thanks

 

[Redbar]

Rice opened -10, so -6.5 seems like good value. They are probably better than people perceive because of how ND and TAM played against them. They've had a rough schedule to start. This one might be worth looking into; I'm not familiar yet with Old Dominion. Thanks

Not that it matters too much, but this is Rice's home opener and they were CUSA champs last year. They know how to win, just had a brutal schedule to start.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Added
Florida +14.5 for $50
Rice -6.5 for $40
Central Michigan +3.5 for $80


Running total: Win = $341; Loss = $400; Net = - $59; Pending = $480; record (7-7)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Wow, I rushed picks for Saturday on instinct and got wacked. (AND REDBAR IS DEAD TO ME - lol; still like the Rice pick - haha)

I decided to go in a little heavy tonight on the PAC12 game. Even with Taylor Kelly out, I like ASU getting points at home. This is a big game for them, more so than UCLA who has been lucky to get to 3-0. Even with USC looming next week, I think ASU will have a lot of energy at home on a Thursday night. If they can catch a break early, it could demoralize UCLA. I just don't think UCLA will be able to score. Thus I also took the Under. ASU's aggressive D, and no Kelly should keep the score in the 40s or 50s.

Time to get some money back;
ASU +3.5 for $80
ASU/UCLA Under 66 for $100



Running total: Win = $386; Loss = $570; Net = - $184; Pending = $430; record (8-10)

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

FVck I suck.
How in the hell did I ever believe ASU's defense was good. 14 UCLA points in 30 seconds.

FML



Someone please rip on my stupidity. At least I didn't parlay this like I was thinking. Come on ASU, get back in it.


* this is why you never bet on a backup QB, no matter how good they might be.
** It is amazing to see ND recruits that were sleepers show up.
(as I type this Vanderdoes goes flying down the field to make a tackle - ugghhh)

 

[Redbar]

Yeah Studio I started to post my bets tonight but was still feeling a little timid after that Rice nugget. I did bet Georgia Southern -17 1/2 but then I took the under on the UCLA ASU game(probably dumb).

 

[calvegas04]

thank god this game is tonight and not saturday otherwise I may have bet ASU big

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

thank god this game is tonight and not saturday otherwise I may have bet ASU big

Thank God I can't bet on Gorman tomorrow!! I'd jinx the shit out of them and Rosen would throw 500+. That said, how bad do I want Nicco to pick him off in the end zone during final minute to beat Bossco by 4 points? And then tell him Alize wouldn't want to ever play with his weak arse sheit.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

The UCLA v ASU is the exact reason I won't bet on NCAA football. I've been betting NFL for the first time ever this year, so far 2/2 (would have bet on Chicago to cover vs the Jets even though I'm a fan, but didn't). So far I'm only betting against the spread.

This weekend I'm going to put money on Atlanta, who are presently favored by 3, to cover over Minnesota.

Is there an existing NFL real betting thread?