Upshot for the Rest of the Class (2014 Edition)

[IrishLax]

Wasn't going to do one this year, as unlike the previous two years things are pretty cut and dry moving towards NSD. This probably going to be the quietest year we've seen in awhile and be mostly about "defense" towards NSD. Also, STL's 2014 list was basically molded from the "master list" into this recently. But I keep getting requests, and with coaching changes potentially wreaking havoc on the recruiting landscape this might be good to have. So here it is.

For those that missed the earlier editions, this thread is intended to serve as a 'one stop shop' of sorts for recruiting info on the remaining targets on ND's board. It saves people time in scrounging through pages of recruiting threads for answers to the same questions like "how many spots do we have left?" or "when is so-and-so deciding?" Please feel free to add on and offer corrections/insight/opinions below. I will keep it updated weekly or as new major recruiting developments happen.
---------------------------------------------------------
Notre Dame has probably 4-5 spots remaining right now after the Mokwuah commitment and Yeargin decommitting as expected. Notre Dame is very unlikely to fill all the spots and come into fall at 85 scholarships. All needs have been addressed except for returner/"explosive" skill position player and interior defensive lineman.

"Locks" (i.e. guys where all evidence points to them committing to ND and only a bizarre change of circumstances could get them to do something different)
None.

Guys We Currently Lead For
None.

Guys We Are Squarely in the Race For (does not mean in the slightest that we will or are expected to win the race... but means we have a legitimate shot to land these guys depending on how the next 4 weeks play out)
Michiah Quick - Quick seems to legitimately be down to just Notre Dame and Oklahoma. Oklahoma has felt very confident fora very long time, but reports are that Notre Dame is surging late. Always a chance UCLA steals one because Jim Mora is just that dirty.
ND: 49%
Oklahoma: 49%
UCLA: 2%

Terrence Alexander - Alexander seems down to Notre Dame and Stanford. Stanford is leaning on relationships, ND is leaning on early PT and other football factors. Most of the time relationships win out with Notre Dame getting in too late. Notre Dame still has a very legitimate shot though and there are reports that his father may even prefer ND. Has not formally eliminated Ole Miss but it'd be a shock if he picked the rebels.
Stanford: 60%
Notre Dame: 35%
Ole Miss: 5%

Daniel Cage - Cage announced that he is down to MSU and Notre Dame. Seems to be a take for MSU with how McDowell may be trending away from the Spartans (and might be a take regardless). Notre Dame made a push here, and it looks like academics might win out. Prominent insiders are starting to think ND, but non-ND analysts still think MSU.
MSU: 50%
Notre Dame: 50%

Courtney Garnett - Notre Dame is surprisingly hanging around in his recruitment despite Garnett's long lean and pledge to Oklahoma. Basically, had Notre Dame gotten in earlier there is little doubt that Notre Dame would've had time to build relationships and surge ahead. Sounds like Garnett is very conflicted but parents prefer Oklahoma. Very real shot he flips to ND, but odds have to be on him sticking with his pledge at this point.
Oklahoma: 60%
Notre Dame: 40%

Guys We Have a Shot At (i.e. could hypothetically become part of this class but it would take a significant change of the status quo)
Juju Smith - USC lock? USC silent? Or really not locked in to the Trojans? Depends on who you talk to.
USC: 90%
Oregon: 5%
Notre Dame: 5%

 

[woolybug25]

Thanks for the work Lax. I always look forward to this post.

Is this a good place to discuss how we go about filling our roster up to 85? We haven't done it, possibly ever. I believe it sets us back and makes our attrition and decommits effect us more than other teams. Shoot... we play with USC sanction-type roster numbers every year (almost).

If this is a bad place for this discussion, we can make another thread. Your call, Lax.

 

[IrishLax]

Thanks for the work Lax. I always look forward to this post.

Is this a good place to discuss how we go about filling our roster up to 85? We haven't done it, possibly ever. I believe it sets us back and makes our attrition and decommits effect us more than other teams. Shoot... we play with USC sanction-type roster numbers every year (almost).

If this is a bad place for this discussion, we can make another thread. Your call, Lax.

I think it's a great place for the discussion, as it's why Payton Hendrix isn't on this list and why we're targeting anywhere from 2 to 5 more players.

The questions are:
1) Do you "oversign" into the "must keep" 5th years?
2) Do you gamble on kids who might not qualify like McKenzie?
3) Do you take good prospects or hold out for elite prospects?
4) Do you save spots for a presumably small 2015 class?

 

[wizards8507]

I'm not familiar with all of the mechanics, but would it be that much of "gamble" for a guy like McKenzie? Is it not possible to do a "take him if we can get him, if not we add a 5th year" situation?

 

[Bubbles]

Great thread. Does anyone have a list of eligible 5th years? Might be easier to debate the 85 if we can compare everyone.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm not familiar with all of the mechanics, but would it be that much of "gamble" for a guy like McKenzie? Is it not possible to do a "take him if we can get him, if not we add a 5th year" situation?

This is what I would do, but ND won't sign a player to an LOI who hasn't cleared admissions.

 

[gkIrish]

I think it's a great place for the discussion, as it's why Payton Hendrix isn't on this list and why we're targeting anywhere from 2 to 5 more players.

The questions are:
1) Do you "oversign" into the "must keep" 5th years?
2) Do you gamble on kids who might not qualify like McKenzie?
3) Do you take good prospects or hold out for elite prospects?
4) Do you save spots for a presumably small 2015 class?

#3 is very important. We must stop passing up on guys like Hendrix. Figure out any oversigning problems later if JuJu picks us. Might mean foregoing a solid 5th year but depth is so important as we saw this year.

 

[woolybug25]

Great! I think its a discussion that has a lot of merit. Here are my opinions to your questions:

IThe questions are:
1) Do you "oversign" into the "must keep" 5th years?

I think it's a two part scenario. You have to make sure that some of the offered prospects know that their offer isn't commitable. But something that lets them know we are serious about pursuing them. Secondly, we have to let certain 5th year guys know that they may or may not be offered a 5th year and discuss whether they would take it under those conditions. If they aren't ok with that scenario, then the staff can decide then if they offer the 5th year or not.

2) Do you gamble on kids who might not qualify like McKenzie?

I think it depends on the year. Who knows, in past classes like last year, we would have had room for him come signing day whether he could enroll or not. If the kid is fully aware of the offer being conditional on their admission to the school, then I have no problem with it. This cycle, considering that we have several "soft" verbals and average 5th year considerations, I think we should take McKenzie and let him try to get in. But it's important that he is fully understanding the consequenses of not getting into ND.

3) Do you take good prospects or hold out for elite prospects?

I think it's all timing. Do we take a guy like Jones today? No. But come a few weeks before NSD, I say we take him if we arent confident in filling the class with no decommits. If we aren't sure, then we take the risk knowing that either natural attrition will open his spot by spring, or one of the 5th years wont get his spot. Looking at every year back that I can think of, attrition will take care of that, not the 5th year.

4) Do you save spots for a presumably small 2015 class?

No. Fill to 85 and plan on doing this in perpetuity. Unless something drastic happens to our attrition average, early departures, etc. Then, like other schools that use this method, the class sizes will take care of themselves.

I'm interested in your thoughts too.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

We will probably never have 85 scholarship players in August or September. Someone will transfer, someone else will get kicked out, someone will get hurt. Shit happens. This is why I think we should oversign on 5th years and make a decision late, like after spring ball if that is possible.

 

[woolybug25]

We will probably never have 85 scholarship players in August or September. Someone will transfer, someone else will get kicked out, someone will get hurt. Shit happens. This is why I think we should oversign on 5th years and make a decision late, like after spring ball if that is possible.

This. I can't remember a single year where this wasn't the case.

 

[IrishLax]

Great thread. Does anyone have a list of eligible 5th years? Might be easier to debate the 85 if we can compare everyone.

Sure, here are the eligible players:
Lombard
Moore
Utupo
Collinsworth

Hendrix (gone to Miami)
Massa
Welch (gone to Miami)
Heggie
Lo Wood (gone to Miami)

Separation provided by me as I think that's the line where guys either provide no value or are already gone.

 

[wizards8507]

This is what I would do, but ND won't sign a player to an LOI who hasn't cleared admissions.

Is the communication between admissions and the athletic department really that poor?

 

[IrishLax]

Is the communication between admissions and the athletic department really that poor?

Nah, I mean that's just a school policy as far as I'm aware. If you haven't passed admissions, we're not sending you an LOI to sign. Other places will sign as many people as they can and figure out the numbers/qualification later.

 

[Booslum31]

I'd also like to think that their is a "surprise" category. There is going to be a boat load of coaching uncertainty at various schools and guys like Holly will be scratching their head. I always hold out hope that we might get a surprise this time of year....eternal optimist.

 

[woolybug25]

Nah, I mean that's just a school policy as far as I'm aware. If you haven't passed admissions, we're not sending you an LOI to sign. Other places will sign as many people as they can and figure out the numbers/qualification later.

How did we get Vanderdoes' then? He said that he was pissed because we told him he had to take summer classes in order to get admitted. Right?

 

[woolybug25]

Sure, here are the eligible players:
Lombard
Moore
Utupo
Collinsworth

.

Don't know about you guys, but I would be fine with losing all of those guys (and thank them for their service to the team and wish them well in their future endeavors) if it meant we could land one elite prospect (ie Quick, JuJu, Schultz, etc).

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm hoping for a big surprise or mild shocker (good one, not a bad one like in years past) around NSD.

 

[IrishLax]

How did we get Vanderdoes' then? He said that he was pissed because we told him he had to take summer classes in order to get admitted. Right?

Ehhhh it's different. I'm not exactly sure how to phrase it, but bottom line is no one should ever use EV as a barometer of how things are supposed to work.

On one hand, you have someone that does not currently have the scores/GPA to pass NCAA minimums, much less any arbitrary standard Notre Dame has.

On the other hand, you have plenty of kids we've dropped for not having core course requirements (math, foreign language, etc.) that they could not physically get taken care of to meet arbitrary ND standards by the time they would enroll.

And sometimes you have guys like Tee Shephard, where everything is just a mess and no one can tell heads from tails.

And then you have Eddie... whose situation is rather unique, and did not have any serious preclusion that would stop him from being admitted... and was largely just piles of BS in many different avenues to get him out of his LOI.

 

[Irish YJ]

Don't know about you guys, but I would be fine with losing all of those guys (and thank them for their service to the team and wish them well in their future endeavors) if it meant we could land one elite prospect (ie Quick, JuJu, Schultz, etc).

I'd part with a few of them, but would prefer to keep a couple for depth purposes. I don't think any of them will see significant minutes next year (or at least I hope not as that means injuries) if things play out like I hope. Right now aren't Utopo, Collinsworth, and Moore all listed in the two deep (at least published on one of the sites).

 

[woolybug25]

But he signed his LOI before being admitted to the university, correct?

 

[IrishLax]

Don't know about you guys, but I would be fine with losing all of those guys (and thank them for their service to the team and wish them well in their future endeavors) if it meant we could land one elite prospect (ie Quick, JuJu, Schultz, etc).

Which is exactly why the staff will have no problem trading Utupo or Collinsworth for elite recruits if it came down to it. Moore is pretty locked in, and so is Lombard, but even they aren't exactly untouchable.

At the same time, if they don't love a Payton Hendrix then they aren't going to drop Collinsworth for him, and will look to grab a safety they DO love in 2015. And so on and so forth.

 

[woolybug25]

I'd part with a few of them, but would prefer to keep a couple for depth purposes. I don't think any of them will see significant minutes next year (or at least I hope not as that means injuries) if things play out like I hope. Right now aren't Utopo, Collinsworth, and Moore all listed in the two deep (at least published on one of the sites).

If things work out like every year in recent history, we would only be "risking" their 5th year. By the time spring rolled around in years past, we would still have room for a few of them.

 

[Irish YJ]

If things work out like every year in recent history, we would only be "risking" their 5th year. By the time spring rolled around in years past, we would still have room for a few of them.

Ah... sorry, a little slow today. TGIF... I'm with you, and yes, I'd risk them all for 4star guys that fit a need, and 5 star guys that fit nothing..

 

[IrishLax]

But he signed his LOI before being admitted to the university, correct?

No, not correct. Look, I don't think this is as hard as you're making it out to be. Admissions has to give the thumbs up to every guy before they sign. The end.

That doesn't mean there still isn't stuff left to be done for almost every kid. If admissions gives someone a thumbs up, and they close the year by failing their core math or foreign language credits or whatever, then they're going to have work left to do before they show up for class to get that taken care of. No different than how a normal student who gets an acceptance letter to ND could get that acceptance revoked or put in jeopardy by doing something like regressing in the classroom, getting in trouble, getting arrested, etc.

I'm not sure when most football prospects actually receive their formal acceptance letter from ND either. I think it depends on the prospect and other considerations. I think some get it in the winter, others in the spring, etc.

 

[woolybug25]

Which is exactly why the staff will have no problem trading Utupo or Collinsworth for elite recruits if it came down to it. Moore is pretty locked in, and so is Lombard, but even they aren't exactly untouchable.

At the same time, if they don't love a Payton Hendrix then they aren't going to drop Collinsworth for him, and will look to grab a safety they DO love in 2015. And so on and so forth.

I guess I would look at it as this... We may not have to make that decision. If history repeats itself; attrition, early departure or decommits will open Hendrix's spot. Not a 5th year. Worst case scenario, we lose the gamble and the 5th year. But this scenario wouldn't have happened in any year in recent memory. We don't have to make the 5th year decisions on NSD either.

 

[woolybug25]

No, not correct. Look, I don't think this is as hard as you're making it out to be. Admissions has to give the thumbs up to every guy before they sign. The end.

That doesn't mean there still isn't stuff left to be done for almost every kid. If admissions gives someone a thumbs up, and they close the year by failing their core math or foreign language credits or whatever, then they're going to have work left to do before they show up for class to get that taken care of. No different than how a normal student who gets an acceptance letter to ND could get that acceptance revoked or put in jeopardy by doing something like regressing in the classroom, getting in trouble, getting arrested, etc.

I'm not sure when most football prospects actually receive their formal acceptance letter from ND either. I think it depends on the prospect and other considerations. I think some get it in the winter, others in the spring, etc.

So it's a "thumbs up", not an "admission". That's all I was saying.

 

[IrishLax]

I guess I would look at it as this... We may not have to make that decision. If history repeats itself; attrition, early departure or decommits will open Hendrix's spot. Not a 5th year. Worst case scenario, we lose the gamble and the 5th year. But this scenario wouldn't have happened in any year in recent memory. We don't have to make the 5th year decisions on NSD either.

Yeah I agree but then you're potentially stuck with Hendrix for 4 years and you're not really in love with him as a prospect. Certain times, like with DL an CB when Kelly took over, you're just grabbing depth pieces and "good" prospects left and right because you can't afford to be picky. Other times, you're looking at it like "what are the chances this kid can be a contributor? what do we give up by passing on him, what to we get by taking him?"

Hendrix is not a need for a log jammed position. So there really isn't much value to taking him unless you believe he's a difference maker, because he's not going to play next year over a 5th year like Collinsowrth and you can get a comparable or better prospect in 2015 if needed.

 

[CanadalovesND]

Sure, here are the eligible players:
Lombard
Moore
Utupo
Collinsworth

Hendrix (gone to Miami)
Massa
Welch (gone to Miami)
Heggie
Lo Wood (gone to Miami)

Separation provided by me as I think that's the line where guys either provide no value or are already gone.

Has there been an actual report or any solid rumours or is this just speculation?

 

[IrishLax]

Has there been an actual report or any solid rumours or is this just speculation?

There was an article in SBT where he talked about it.

 

[woolybug25]

Yeah I agree but then you're potentially stuck with Hendrix for 4 years and you're not really in love with him as a prospect. Certain times, like with DL an CB when Kelly took over, you're just grabbing depth pieces and "good" prospects left and right because you can't afford to be picky. Other times, you're looking at it like "what are the chances this kid can be a contributor? what do we give up by passing on him, what to we get by taking him?"

Hendrix is not a need for a log jammed position. So there really isn't much value to taking him unless you believe he's a difference maker, because he's not going to play next year over a 5th year like Collinsowrth and you can get a comparable or better prospect in 2015 if needed.

There's potential... but there's the rub. Every single year we end up marching a team out there under the 85 limit.

I don't know the answer. But I do know that most teams don't let logjams effect NSD. Seems to work for them. We have taken this same approach of wariness of "oversigning" and then not field a full roster every year. If we want to see that changed, then it seems like continuing to do the same thing would be the definition of insanity.