Should Ohio State be shut out of NC game even if they go undefeated?

[FearTheBeard]

No reason they should get in with that schedule. As stated people would lose their minds if we played that schedule and got in. People still claimed our schedule was weak last year which is just flat out stupid. Its ridiculous, this is why i hate the system and would love to have an 8 team playoff

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

They play a very weak in-conference schedule too.

That too.

 

[nlroma1o]

If they were to get into the championship with that schedule, it would symbolize everything that is wrong and evil in this world...

 

[Andy in Sactown]

If I were an OSU fan, I'd pass over this thread too.

Danger Will Robinson! Danger!

 

[returnofthemack]

I don't think they should be kept out. Yes, their schedule is easy, but not Boise state easy. They play the schedule ahead of them, if they win all their games and the conference championship, they're in the title. If they're unworthy of the spot, they'll get thrashed like we did.

 

[returnofthemack]

Also, I think it's hilarious that some people I know who always claim Boise is elite and deserves a championship berth if they go undefeated against their pathetic schedule are dead set against Ohio state going to the title game with their schedule.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

This year is an anomaly for OSU also. They usually have a decent, ambitious schedule. They had the home and home with Texas and U$C in their prime, and us a few years before that. I don't think they will go undefeated, but will be in Pasadena if they do.

*Home and home with VT starting next year, and that was made when the Hokies were a perennial BCS team.

 

[Andy in Sactown]

Also, I think it's hilarious that some people I know who always claim Boise is elite and deserves a championship berth if they go undefeated against their pathetic schedule are dead set against Ohio state going to the title game with their schedule.

That's pretty funny since they're pretty comparable. I disagree that their schedule is significantly softer than OSU's, but let's take a look...

Since Lax kicked this off with OSU's S.O.S. per Athlon's ratings:

vs Buffalo (#103)
vs SDSU (#64)
@ Cal (#55)
vs Florida A&M (N/A)
vs Wisconsin (#19)
@ Northwestern (#24)
vs Iowa (#69)
vs Penn State (#39)
@ Purdue (#78)
@ Illinois (#86)
vs Indiana (#59)
@ Michigan (#14)

Napkin maths tells me this is a median average opponent ranking of 55.45 (both teams have an unranked opponent, so the divisor was 11 games).

Meanwhile using the same Athlonsports pre-season ranking for Boise State, we get:

@ Washington (#37)
Tenn-Martin (N/A)
Air Force (#82)
@ Fresno State (#21)
Southern Miss (#108)
@ Utah State (#60)
Nevada (#76)
@ BYU (#43)
@ Colorado State (#95)
Wyoming (#93)
@ San Diego State (#64)
New Mexico (#100)

For a median average opponent ranking of 70.81.

While I'm sure OSU fans would be quick to point out that's roughly 15 spots lower, going from 70th "hardest" (by this metric) to 55th is NOTHING to brag about.

I will say however, that going undefeated for OSU involves a B1G Championship game that is going to make the MWC Championship Game (first ever this year) look like the Pick-a-Pizza-Joint Bowl. But DO NOT think this means I don't agree with my first post in this thread (and subsequent posts).

That is not a Championship caliber schedule. Unless they beat a Top-10 or better yet Top-5 ranked undefeated or one loss team in the B1G Championship Game they don't have a leg to stand on. So unless the planets align....

OSU should be left out.


Note: Look at FSU's shameful scheduling as another example of trying to "buy" a Championship.

 

[returnofthemack]

Phil Steele’s 2013 College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings

OSU's at 67.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

Top 5 would likely have to be comprised of 2 loss teams for them to take that schedule all the way.

Even still, I wouldn't be shocked if Fitzgerald's defense and running game force a close game. I give Wisconsin and Penn State a fair shot and Michigan matches up well too.

 

[chubler]

Look for Wisconsin to hand it to them with ball control offense and lots of power running against that front seven where they return, oh right, just one LINEBACKER. No way they get out of Wisconsin and Northwestern in consecutive weeks without a loss.

And it seems theres always that one-loss SEC team whining they didn't get into the NCG ala florida last year. I think they'd get in over OSU. especially if its aTm or LSU with only the loss to Bama.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I think the obvious answer to the question at the top of the thread is "no," although if they run the table I can't imagine a one loss team jumping them.

My question is whether this is the last year this will matter. Will the new system take care if this problem? I feel like maybe it might, but I honestly haven't read up a ton on it yet.

 

[NDWorld247]

I think the obvious answer to the question at the top of the thread is "no," although if they run the table I can't imagine a one loss team jumping them.

My question is whether this is the last year this will matter. Will the new system take care if this problem? I feel like maybe it might, but I honestly haven't read up a ton on it yet.

What problem are you referring to? Weak scheduling?

 

[Rhode Irish]

What problem are you referring to? Weak scheduling?

Well, I know teams will always be able to make their schedule as strong or weak as they choose. I was referring more specifically to using a weak schedule to game the system and get into the championship fame without beating anyone of any consequence.

 

[NDWorld247]

Well, I know teams will always be able to make their schedule as strong or weak as they choose. I was referring more specifically to using a weak schedule to game the system and get into the championship fame without beating anyone of any consequence.

I just wrote out a long response to this question and received an "Internal Server Error" message when I hit submit. Very frustrated right now.

Anyway, that's what I thought you meant but wanted clarification. The College Football Playoff selection criteria has not been finalized but everything I've heard/read from the conference commissioners is that strength of schedule will play a large role in determining the four playoff teams. I think several conferences have taken preemptive measures to improve their scheduling (e.g. Big Ten moving to a 9-game conference schedule in 2014 with the SEC likely following suit soon).

I would expect the CFP to push teams to replace FCS opponents with lesser FBS teams. For example, in 2013, OSU plays Buffalo, SDSU, Cal and Florida A&M. In 2014, they play Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State and Cincinnati although one of those teams will need to be dropped to accommodate the new Big Ten scheduling.

However, Alabama's 2014 non-conference schedule is currently as pathetic as their 2013 slate with two FCS schools. If the SEC moves to a 9-game schedule, they will likely drop one of the FCS schools and keep the other because I doubt the SEC schools are real concerned about the selection committee worrying about their SOS right now.

I think the CFP will allow teams to worry less about losing one game. They will no longer need to go undefeated to "guarantee" a seat at the table as several 1-loss teams will be vying for a spot. Many CFP opponents think this de-values the regular season, but, being a CFP proponent, I think this will improve the regular season by creating better matchups (i.e. more conference games, less FCS non-conference games, better non-conference matchups, etc).

Teams can try to game the system, but they will be taking a huge risk by doing so.

 

[D-BOE34]

I hope that the new system does actually take SOS into consideration. Develop a system (Computers?) that measures all schedules in one way and they stick with it. If the program was in place and we ended up losing to Stanford, do we get bounced from the 4 because we lost late? Do we make it in because of our schedule and how close the solo loss was? That will help but never will the country agree on things. At this point, the more we can win the better! (Duh) If we can keep up 10 win seasons, some bowl wins through the process, we will find ourselves in the NC a few more times than we expect over the next 10 years and I am ook with that. Every season is a mystery. When ND nation agrees we should win 10 year in and out, I will be stoked!

To keep on topic... **** OSU! Undefeated though, they should be in. Unless the teams on schedule all fall at .500

 

[ThePiombino]

Yes. They should be left out (assuming there are 2 or more of any combination of no- or one-loss teams with stronger schedules - which really shouldn't take much), but they won't be. This is ESPECIALLY the case, IMO, if the NCG would be a repeat game of the SEC regular season. I think an SEC/OSU matchup would be more sexy to voters, plus UM having the ESPN media machine in his pocket doesn't hurt...

 

[IrishLax]

In every other sport strength of schedule or RPI or some factor of "who have you played" gets put in to post season selection. In lacrosse, it is the single most important thing. Same with hockey. Basketball isn't dissimilar. Really the BCS is the only system that has subjective polls as the primary criteria.

Will they get shut out? Almost surely not. SHOULD they get shut out is my question. If you're an SEC team that beats 3 top 10 wins but a loss how can you justify Ohio State with max 1 top 10 win and a pathetic bottom half of a schedule getting in?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I'm no expert on SOS, so if this is wrong, please enlighten me.

Lets say this happens:

A team like ND, Michigan, etc. goes 8-4

A team like San Diego State goes 9-3

*SDSU would be considered a harder opponent according to SOS right? I don't think record is the only indicator of how strong an opponent really is. Does more go into it?

 

[IrishLax]

I'm no expert on SOS, so if this is wrong, please enlighten me.

Lets say this happens:

A team like ND, Michigan, etc. goes 8-4

A team like San Diego State goes 9-3

*SDSU would be considered a harder opponent according to SOS right? I don't think record is the only indicator of how strong an opponent really is. Does more go into it?

Not necessarily. Most SOS components factor in your opponent's opponents records or something of the like to correct for this.

 

[GowerND11]

Not necessarily. Most SOS components factor in your opponent's opponents records or something of the like to correct for this.

Right, I believe Phil Steele uses some formula based on who you beat to get your SOS. However, too many causal fans simply say we have more wins, we're better.

 

[kmoose]

There's a discussion thread on ISD and I think it's an interesting topic. They play one of the easiest schedules maybe in the history of CFB for a major conference team. If Notre Dame played their schedule, we would be favored by double digits in at least 9 games and at least a TD in 11 of 12 games. We'd only have one game (@Michigan) where we'd be less than a TD favorite. Here it is for ref... the number next to the team's name is Athlon's pre-season ranking:

vs Buffalo (#103)
vs SDSU (#64)
@ Cal (#55)
vs Florida A&M (N/A)
vs Wisconsin (#19)
@ Northwestern (#24)
vs Iowa (#69)
vs Penn State (#39)
@ Purdue (#78)
@ Illinois (#86)
vs Indiana (#59)
@ Michigan (#14)

Zero Top 10 teams. Three top 25 teams. Four top 50 teams. So basically... 2/3 of their schedule is against cupcakes who are outside the top 50 projected teams.

So let's say you have two 1 loss teams from the SEC or a 1 loss Oregon or a 1 loss Notre Dame or the like... would you put an undefeated Ohio State in over one of those teams?

No offense, but is this a serious question? The ONLY reasonable answer is "It depends on how good those opponents are, at the end of the season."

 

[IrishLax]

No offense, but is this a serious question? The ONLY reasonable answer is "It depends on how good those opponents are, at the end of the season."

What is unreasonable about it? They don't play a single team that would finish in the top 5 of the SEC on talent. No matter what at the end of a year of few of those teams will be ranked by virtue of that's how conference play works... always someone shakes out as ranked.

I, personally, would not vote them in over a 1 loss team that played a reasonable schedule unless they were just completely blowing out opponents every week.

 

[kmoose]

What is unreasonable about it? They don't play a single team that would finish in the top 5 of the SEC on talent. No matter what at the end of a year of few of those teams will be ranked by virtue of that's how conference play works... always someone shakes out as ranked.

I, personally, would not vote them in over a 1 loss team that played a reasonable schedule unless they were just completely blowing out opponents every week.

That's the whole point....... you are asking us to make a decision before the season is even played. Ask us again, after the teams have all played at least most of their schedule. Without a single game being played, I can't tell you whether or not they are more deserving than a 1 loss SEC, or PAC-10 team.