Gentlemen, the South Koreans want no part of two things:
1). having to take the severe damages from the initial North Korean assault prior to the combined retaliation of their own technology and The Leviathan of the USA which crushes it. This would take several days probably without the use of nuclear weapons [which there is about zero chance that the US would do], and therefore create quite a lot of death to say nothing of the structural and economic mess.
2). Any requirement that they should get involved with "managing" or, God Forbid, occupying and ultimately absorbing North Korea a la E/W Germany.
Given the latter stance, China wants no part in "managing" North Korea's problems either, viewing their dysfunctional state as merely a circus buffer between themselves and the west. As long as NK doesn't behave TOO badly, that's OK by China.
NO ONE [South Korea, China, Japan, USA, Russia] wants North Korea setting off any Nuke on foreign soil.
With these pretty absolute parameters as benchmark starting points, everyone can build their own hypothesis about future NK, SK, China, USA actions from there. For twenty years NK has played the Big Bluff Blowhard game, gotten the US to give them a little something, violated whatever treaty was involved, and gone on to the next bluff. Is this the latest in the series, or are this young basketball-loving idiot "leader" and his semi-crazy aunt, who weirdly seems to be the real power, fools enough to take it further?
IF the USA could get China to lead multinational talks with these clowns, THAT might create some path to greater stability. China MUST get NK to realize that it doesn't like certain behaviors at all to the extent that they are willing to ration their food and energy exports to the place, without which NK would simply die.
