It's not just about limiting explosive ST plays. Let's look at the flipside of that.
ND PRE: 97th
'Bama PE: 22nd
ND KRE: 102nd
'Bama KE: 29th
Based on those figures, it's very unlikely that we're going to see anything but fair catches deep in our own territory. And while our coverage units are unlikely to give up a big return, 'Bama will still probably get something. That differential in starting field position adds up over the course of the game; 'Bama will likely have to drive 5-10 yards less on average than ND, which usually ends up on the score board at some point.
And consider the FGE: 67th for ND v. 24th for 'Bama. So even if our amazing red-zone defense keeps 'Bama out of the end zone, they've still got the advantage in a field goal contest.
I agree with Fremeau that our terrible STs have been the difference this year between passing the "eye ball" test and appearing to pull out lucky wins. It's easy to look back at 12-0 and dismiss the importance of ST, but it'll catch up with us soon if we don't start improving.
Oklahoma is 5th in KRE. They started kickoff drives at the 12, 21, 25, 25, 25, 18, and 48 (when the game was essentially over). Considering Alabama has a worse return game, would a game like that "worry" you? Do you think that would equate to a 5-10 yard average difference?
As far as punts go, field position is determined primarily based on how the offense does. So if we lose the punting field position game, it probably has more to do with our offense than Ben Turk.
Alabama does have an advantage in their kicking game on paper but how many game-winners has their guy kicked this year? Brindza has multiple game winners or overtime field goals. That experience will be invaluable. If we are holding Alabama to field goal tries I like our chances regardless of whether they make them or not.
I'm not dismissing the importance of special teams. I'm simply not "worried" that special teams are going to win or lose this game. Our team is built around our defense and securing the football. We don't fumble punts or kickoffs because we don't try anything crazy in the return game.
I'm not worried about a 5-10 yard average (which is probably overstated) because I really doubt that Coach Kelly is. This game will be won or lost in the trenches and on the goal line.
