If you're taking Canada at 7/10 games that's a pretty significant margin. I think you're talking yourself into guys having their "moment". The US can certainly win it and they do have their own stars. This is kind of like OSU vs Oregon, where OSU is better in pretty much every area but Oregon still has the horses. McAvoy and Hughes are fine players, but we're not in vacuum here, and we know that Celebrini is 4th in scoring this year.
(I'm still going to be puckered up when the game does happen)
I appreciate your OSU vs Oregon comp but I actually think the Americans are legitimately better defensively as a group. I think Makar is clearly the best defender in the world, but if I was making a top 6 out of Canadian and American defensemen I'd take Makar and Morrisey for Canada and Hughes, Werenski, McAvoy and Slavin for USA, giving the Americans a 4/2 edge. Now, that's likely to change as soon as a year from now with the emergence of Matthew Shaefer for Canada, but as of now I have it as an edge to the USA.
Turning to goaltending, Binnington seems to elevate to an exceptional level in international play and Thompson is fairly unproven in these formats. Gone are the days of a Ken Dryden, Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur or Carrie Price, where we knew our goaltending was going to be elite. The Americans have Hellebuyck as their starter and I'd take him, at least on paper, over any of our goalies. I know that he's been frustrating at times in big international games and playoff series, but at his best he's the North American guy that I would bet on.
Yes, Canada has McDavid, Mackinnon, Crosby and Celebrini up front, supported by a cast of NHL All Star caliber forwards good enough that they could justify cutting the likes of a Connor Bedard and leaving guys like Wyatt Johnston and Mark Scheifele at home... The forward group is certainly better than any group the Americans can ice. Canada has 12 forwards in the NHL's top 50 in scoring, including 3 of the top 4. By comparison, the Americans only have 8 forwards in the NHL's top 50 in scoring and 1 in the top 10, but that's somewhat skewed by the Tkatchuk early season injury and the slow (by his standards) start for Auston Matthews.
Give me Canada with the edge, but not by a ton, IMO. For the record, I actually think the Canadian team will actually be better 4 years from now... Looking ahead I could easily see...
Connor McDavid (32)
Nathan Mackinnon (34)
Macklin Celebrini (23)
Connor Bedard (24)
Nick Suzuki (30)
Wyatt Johnston (26)
Mitch Marner (32)
Brandon Hagel (31)
Sam Reinhart (34)
Dylan Guenther (26)
Sam Bennett (33)
Seth Jarvis (27)
Beckett Sennecke (23)
Cale Makar (31)
Josh Morrisey (34)
Matthew Shaefer (23)
Bowen Byram (27)
Evan Bouchard (30)
Noah Dobson (29)
Thomas Harley (28)