Weather Bulletin

TheRealLynch51

Well-known member
Messages
1,500
Reaction score
1,656
Stay safe. Winds have hit 185.
Thanks brother! Sounds about right based off local Tampa coverage. For those wondering, it won't hit Tampa as a category 4 or 5. Significant wind shear near the Tampa area will weaken the storm to a category 3. Still something that is absolutely critical for people on the coasts and in evacuation zones to evacuate due to storm surge (possibly up to 15 feet). It'll have winds from 90-110 MPH with gusts up to 130 MPH in the Tampa area at this point. Some local coverage for y'all:

 

Katzenboyer

Well-known member
Messages
1,922
Reaction score
3,183
Being in Miami for 10+ years now, I have a saying I live by this time of year: I won't panic about a hurricane until John Morales (local weatherman for Miami's NBC affiliate) starts to panic. Guy is cool as a cucumber and does not play into the hysterics you usually see when these storms are churning.

Well...this is John Morales yesterday, fighting back tears as the measurements of Hector were being taken by the hurricane hunter aircraft.



Even if this weakens before it comes to shore, it most likely will fundamentally change Tampa for many, many years. If you're in that area and haven't left yet...leave now.

Stay safe.
 

Huntr

24 Karat Shamrock
Messages
7,500
Reaction score
10,423
I cross over 10 on my way to work every day. Bumper to bumper as far as you can see this morning. I know someone that left the Sarasota area yesterday morning. They made it to Tally at 11 pm last night. Usually a 5 hr drive.

Another person I know left yesterday morning from just south of Spring Hill. She took 19 up and made it to Albany, GA about 7pm, normally about a 5 hr drive.

Traffic is heavy on every road north and gas stations are empty. I saw video of police escorts for fuel tankers on 75.

I'm not sure how far folks need to really go, but anyone in an evac zone needs to get away from the coast. The surge is going to be historic and murderous.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,581
Reaction score
20,033
Tampa airport is closing today, not sure what time. Orlando airport closes tomorrow.
 

irishff1014

Well-known member
Messages
26,509
Reaction score
9,285
Looks like the bars have gone up to around 925. Still a powerful storm. That storm surge is what’s going to be a killer.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,581
Reaction score
20,033
As preparations continue for Hurricane Milton’s arrival, Florida’s Department of Corrections said it has moved 4,636 inmates, with additional evacuations still underway.

“Evacuation determinations are made in the best interest of the public, staff and inmate safety,” according to an update on the department's website. Officials said announcements about evacuations will only be made after they are complete.

A full list of facilities that were evacuated can be found on the Florida Department of Corrections website.
 

MacIrish75

The New Logo is a Jinx
Messages
9,195
Reaction score
17,740
030574F6-673D-4746-9E1D-C1F67317DA34.jpeg
So the concern here is that the models keep pushing a little further south with every update. The mandatory evacuation zones were more in the Tampa area. The further south Milton shifts, the more you get into the encouraged areas or areas where people weren’t mandated to evacuate. While Tampa might be spared, Fort Myers/Fort Myers Beach—who took the brunt of Ian and is still recovering years later—could be right in the crosshairs. Nobody will be unscathed, but according to Denis Phillips out of Tampa, the south and eastern edge of a hurricane normally sees the worst surge.
 
I

irishu

Guest
My family lives in Sarasota. Fortunately inland enough where flooding shouldn’t be an issue, but they still evacuated. Actually they drove up to ND since they already were planning to go to the Stanford game. Really glad they left yesterday and not today, traffic and gas lines look insane.

Still worried about their house. Lots of loose debris from Helene cleanup still in Sarasota, and shit is going to be flying everywhere
 

FU BK

Well-known member
Messages
1,685
Reaction score
2,659
View attachment 3056647
So the concern here is that the models keep pushing a little further south with every update. The mandatory evacuation zones were more in the Tampa area. The further south Milton shifts, the more you get into the encouraged areas or areas where people weren’t mandated to evacuate. While Tampa might be spared, Fort Myers/Fort Myers Beach—who took the brunt of Ian and is still recovering years later—could be right in the crosshairs. Nobody will be unscathed, but according to Denis Phillips out of Tampa, the south and eastern edge of a hurricane normally sees the worst surge.
We went to north captiva Island for vacation in June after ian. Could not believe the utter destruction that remained. They had empty lots all over the island that were designated for metal, drywall and insulation, and general trash.
 

MacIrish75

The New Logo is a Jinx
Messages
9,195
Reaction score
17,740
We went to north captiva Island for vacation in June after ian. Could not believe the utter destruction that remained. They had empty lots all over the island that were designated for metal, drywall and insulation, and general trash.
We’d been going to FMB/Bonita Springs between my wife’s family and my family for a couple decades. After Ian, we’ve been going to IRB/Reddington for a couple years to give FMB time to rebuild. I always feel like there’s a balance between going back to patronize Riley establishments who have rebuilt and stepping folks’ toes as they’re trying to continue with their rebuild.

I’m FAR from someone who’s a climate alarmist, but man we didn’t have storms of this magnitude AND frequency decades ago.

I just sympathize with those folks so much. I can’t imagine evacuating and knowing your home and property may fail to exist when I return.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,581
Reaction score
20,033
Spoke to my son that’s in Fleming Island which is just west of Jacksonville. He said the water has already risen about three feet. The general area around the St Johns is expecting some flooding. This thing is going to effect the entire state.
 
I

irishu

Guest
A huge problem on the gulf coast is that, after Helene, the ground is all saturated and the sewage systems all filled. There is nowhere for the water to dissipate after it floods inland.
 

Irish#1

Livin' Your Dream!
Staff member
Messages
44,581
Reaction score
20,033
Expected to hit around 1:00 - 2:00 in the morning. Estimated 140mph winds when it hits landfall. Winds between 80-110mph once it starts to cross the state.
 

Huntr

24 Karat Shamrock
Messages
7,500
Reaction score
10,423
New update in about 10 minutes, models will refresh, should tell us a lot.
 

Blazers46

Adjectives: wise/brilliant/handsome.
Messages
8,106
Reaction score
5,458
I can’t imagine that people lived before we had weather forecasting. Imagine going to bed tomorrow and that thing coming in, in the middle of the night.
Noah says hold my beer…. lol.
 

Blazers46

Adjectives: wise/brilliant/handsome.
Messages
8,106
Reaction score
5,458
I am curious what a 10-15 ft storm surge would look in Florida. It’s such a flat saturated state as it is. I don’t see a lot of that water just being absorbed into the ground.
 
Top