State of the Recruiting Class - 2024

[ColinKSU]

How can anyone listen to that guy. He could be Einstein smart and I still would turn his ass off. He has to be one of the most annoying people on the planet.

I’ve seen his thumbnails a million times and never clicked until now. *Wow*.

 

[stlnd01]

I don’t think anyone is guaranteed five years anymore. The game moves too fast and the money is too big.

That said, if Freeman puts up 8 or 9 win seasons and avoids scandal I doubt he’s going anywhere. That won’t be good enough to get hired away or bad enough to get fired.

Either way, how about we give the guy a couple of seasons of actual football?

 

[NDRock]

Horrible article, a laughable part of the article -


The "writer" must have some sort of brain damage since Ben Morrison doesn't exist in his reality. Clear example of strong development. In terms of recruiting 5 star talent, ND got a 5 star equivalent QB transfer with Hartman in the NIL era in 2023.

The note on "talent" without mentioning the 10% improvement in BCR since MF took over is hilarious too. ND is top 10 in BCR for 2023, and will only improve.

The fact we only have two (and Hartman is not a 1st round talent) speaks to the problem. The writer is correct that ND needs more high end talent to compete for titles. Can’t imagine anyone disagrees with that assessment.

 

[T-Boone]

I just don’t get why D recruiting has dropped off. It’s got to be Golden.
The offense recruiting is good.

 

[TorontoGold]

The fact we only have two (and Hartman is not a 1st round talent) speaks to the problem. The writer is correct that ND needs more high end talent to compete for titles. Can’t imagine anyone disagrees with that assessment.

Right, but this problem is not going to be fixed in 1.5 years - especially at a place like ND. The kind of talent turnover that needs to happen is already underway with Freeman moving the team towards the BCR rate needed to compete. At 65% ND is already in the area of where LSU (64% in 2019) and Clemson (61% - 2018).

Obviously we know what those teams had at QB and WR, if people want to stick their dick in a blender because ND lost it's #2 WR commit and lost out on top 5 DL recruit who some in the media have concerns about then they can go nuts. But to make the assumption that the sky is falling in July and that Freeman can just snap his fingers to fix it isn't a serious person. We know Freeman has improved recruiting in his tenure, this isn't some Group of 5 school where a hot shot coach comes in and goes 5-7, 9-3, 11-1 and growth is linear. There's going to be ups/downs, but there are legitimate difference makers coming in at the skill positions and the depth is improving immensely. If ND continues to bump up around ~2/3% per year they'll be at the Clemson range ~70% and hopefully have the difference makers in CJ/Williams when they are sophomores.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

 

[INLaw]

Listened to this last night. Can't say I disagree.

Like what he says sometimes but can we find someone calm and normal sounding to say it

 

[T-Boone]

Like what he says sometimes but can we find someone calm and normal sounding to say it

I think that is his thing though. There are plenty of normal boring sounding podcasters. He is frantic like sports fans should be.

 

[INLaw]

I think that is his thing though. There are plenty of normal boring sounding podcasters. He is frantic like sports fans should be.

His voice angers up the blood

 

[NDRock]

Right, but this problem is not going to be fixed in 1.5 years - especially at a place like ND. The kind of talent turnover that needs to happen is already underway with Freeman moving the team towards the BCR rate needed to compete. At 65% ND is already in the area of where LSU (64% in 2019) and Clemson (61% - 2018).

Obviously we know what those teams had at QB and WR, if people want to stick their dick in a blender because ND lost it's #2 WR commit and lost out on top 5 DL recruit who some in the media have concerns about then they can go nuts. But to make the assumption that the sky is falling in July and that Freeman can just snap his fingers to fix it isn't a serious person. We know Freeman has improved recruiting in his tenure, this isn't some Group of 5 school where a hot shot coach comes in and goes 5-7, 9-3, 11-1 and growth is linear. There's going to be ups/downs, but there are legitimate difference makers coming in at the skill positions and the depth is improving immensely. If ND continues to bump up around ~2/3% per year they'll be at the Clemson range ~70% and hopefully have the difference makers in CJ/Williams when they are sophomores.

Blue-Chip Ratio 2023: The 16 teams who can actually win a national title

How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football? And which of the teams in 2023 are most set to deliver on that promise? Unveiling the 2023 Blue-Chip Ratio.

247sports.com

I’m not that impressed with the whole blue chip rate thing. Steve Angeli, as the 43rd ranked QB, is counted the same as a 5* player. We’re not getting any more elite kids under Freeman. We’re trading in some high ranked 3* kids for low ranked 4*s. It’s better but unlikely it will be enough to get us closer to a NC.

Hopefully some of these kids become difference makers regardless of what they’re ranked.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Listened to this last night. Can't say I disagree.

That dude is my spirit animal.

 

[Domina Nostra]

1) ND is obviously NOT interested in winning an NC at all costs. They are focused on their mission and their brand, which they often conflate and confuse. This is not a bad thing, but it is different than OSU and Bama.

2) Unless ND starts paying, ND is going to struggle against schools that are bigger, party more, and have almost no standards for athletes. These are kids with NFL aspirations, so college football is their vocational school. Why would they chose a school where academics is going to be a real challenge? Answer: a few top kids are really smart, a few top kids are competitive in everything, a few top kids value education for its own sake, a few kids are wise enough to hedge their bets, and a few top kids are either ND fans or grew up close-by--we do pretty well with all of these types of kids.

But the reality is a certain number of the top 50 kids are just NEVER going to consider ND as is. If UGA has a real shot at 40 of the top 50 kids a year, they may land 5 in a good year. If ND only has a legit shot with, say, 5-10 of those kids, they are going to be lucky to land 1. This is just reality.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I’m not that impressed with the whole blue chip rate thing. Steve Angeli, as the 43rd ranked QB, is counted the same as a 5* player. We’re not getting any more elite kids under Freeman. We’re trading in some high ranked 3* kids for low ranked 4*s. It’s better but unlikely it will be enough to get us closer to a NC.

Hopefully some of these kids become difference makers regardless of what they’re ranked.

BCR is one metric. The article states as much. Of course development, in-game Xs and Os, etc also matter towards winning a title. They're just saying that teams with BCR below 50% historically have zero chance since it's been tracked.

Now with that said, I agree, it could be better. Why not use a point system and weight 5*s more than 4*? I think roster management could be worth points too. A team with a high BCR that only does well with offensive recruits and leaves massive holes in the roster on the defensive side of the ball probably isn't winning a title either. The BCR for a team like that is totally irrelevant.

ND is doing what it needs to do: Continue to stock-pile 4* start talent and hope they hit on one of these QBs. I agree with Domina Nostra above that "unless ND starts paying," ND is going to struggle to get top 50 "gap-closing" talent, consistently. ND's recipe for a championship will likely mimic Clemson's. They HAVE to hit at QB, while building depth everywhere else.

 

[NDWarrior]

BCR is one metric. The article states as much. Of course development, in-game Xs and Os, etc also matter towards winning a title. They're just saying that teams with BCR below 50% historically have zero chance since it's been tracked.

Now with that said, I agree, it could be better. Why not use a point system and weight 5*s more than 4*? I think roster management could be worth points too. A team with a high BCR that only does well with offensive recruits and leaves massive holes in the roster on the defensive side of the ball probably isn't winning a title either. The BCR for a team like that is totally irrelevant.

ND is doing what it needs to do: Continue to stock-pile 4* start talent and hope they hit on one of these QBs. I agree with Domina Nostra above that "unless ND starts paying," ND is going to struggle to get top 50 "gap-closing" talent, consistently. ND's recipe for a championship will likely mimic Clemson's. They HAVE to hit at QB, while building depth everywhere else.

A generational star QB carrying the team to the glory of a NC can happen but it's rare. I don't remember these teams in detail, but I would think Cam Newton with Auburn and Jameis Winston with FSU are good examples along with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson, but I'm not sure if we even have one of these among ND's current and future QB roster? Fundamentally, something needs to change. The old "ND is different and so can't win a NC" argument is tired but the current modern era is something different that is a confluence of CFB changes all at once discussed here ad nauseam so this time it's different and the pressures are coming from the outside and affect ND because it's different. Does anyone know if the incoming AD has a more progressive mindset re: the ND status quo and will want to challenge it once he's settled in, unlike his predecessors?

 

[NDWarrior]

A generational star QB carrying the team to the glory of a NC can happen but it's rare. I don't remember these teams in detail, but I would think Cam Newton with Auburn and Jameis Winston with FSU are good examples along with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson, but I'm not sure if we even have one of these among ND's current and future QB roster? Fundamentally, something needs to change. The old "ND is different and so can't win a NC" argument is tired but the current modern era is something different that is a confluence of CFB changes all at once discussed here ad nauseam so this time it's different and the pressures are coming from the outside and affect ND because it's different. Does anyone know if the incoming AD has a more progressive mindset re: the ND status quo and will want to challenge it once he's settled in, unlike his predecessors?

And right on queue, I just got an ND email alert with this: Can Notre Dame Still Compete For National Championships?

 

[Terry Jillery]

Easy there. Michigan has the same number of playoff appearances as michigan state.

Huh?

 

[stpeteirish]

A generational star QB carrying the team to the glory of a NC can happen but it's rare. I don't remember these teams in detail, but I would think Cam Newton with Auburn and Winston Jamison with FSU are good examples along with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson, but I'm not sure if we even have one of these among ND's current and future QB roster? Fundamentally, something needs to change. The old "ND is different and so can't win a NC" argument is tired but the current modern era is something different that is a confluence of CFB changes all at once discussed here ad nauseam so this time it's different and the pressures are coming from the outside and affect ND because it's different. Does anyone know if the incoming AD has a more progressive mindset re: the ND status quo and will want to challenge it once he's settled in, unlike his predecessors?

FSU’s been clamoring for a return to those Winston Jamison glory days for years now.

 

[StPaul_Irish]

FSU’s been clamoring for a return to those Winston Jamison glory days for years now.

AH YES, Winston Churchill Jamison, who famously said " Walk Softly and Carry a Big Stick"

 

[irishff1014]

A generational star QB carrying the team to the glory of a NC can happen but it's rare. I don't remember these teams in detail, but I would think Cam Newton with Auburn and Winston Jamison with FSU are good examples along with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson, but I'm not sure if we even have one of these among ND's current and future QB roster? Fundamentally, something needs to change. The old "ND is different and so can't win a NC" argument is tired but the current modern era is something different that is a confluence of CFB changes all at once discussed here ad nauseam so this time it's different and the pressures are coming from the outside and affect ND because it's different. Does anyone know if the incoming AD has a more progressive mindset re: the ND status quo and will want to challenge it once he's settled in, unlike his predecessors?

No one is forcing you to watch ND, follow the team nor Cher for them. ND is gonna do things ND’s way and most of us cheer for them because they aren’t the status quo of college football.

 

[NDWarrior]

AH YES, Winston Churchill Jamison, who famously said " Walk Softly and Carry a Big Stick"

Oops - A case of Dyslexia... I meant Jameis Winston!

 

[NDWarrior]

BTW, evidence that Winston and Newton were the catalyst and reason for NC was that both these teams fell apart after the QB's departure to NFL where Chizik was fired from Auburn only years later and Jimbo spiraled downward in a matter of years and got out of Dodge for the big payout at A&M.

 

[NDWarrior]

No one is forcing you to watch ND, follow the team nor Cher for them. ND is gonna do things ND’s way and most of us cheer for them because they aren’t the status quo of college football.

Of course no one is forcing me to watch ND FB - I choose to do so! And I too appreciate ND's commitment to academics and players not being treated too differently from the typical ND student and getting RKGs, etc., but like others, I'm saying some kind of creativity and innovation is needed to change the current situation and ND's NC drought, not necessarily these traditions that most of us appreciate.

 

[rtrn2glory]

I hate to say this but the
Notre Dame football is reminding me of the 90s early 2000s Florida Marlins. If we win it'll be by total accident. Then if by some miracle we do administration will not allow the momentum to be full speed ahead. It'll simply be seen as "neat" and simply nothing to see here

 

[ColinKSU]

I hate to say this but the
Notre Dame football is reminding me of the 90s early 2000s Florida Marlins. If we win it'll be by total accident. Then if by some miracle we do administration will not allow the momentum to be full speed ahead. It'll simply be seen as "neat" and simply nothing to see here

Unfortunately for the comparison to Notre Dame, the Marlins bought their 1997 and 2003 World Series wins.

 

[pumpdog20]

I hate to say this but the
Notre Dame football is reminding me of the 90s early 2000s Florida Marlins. If we win it'll be by total accident. Then if by some miracle we do administration will not allow the momentum to be full speed ahead. It'll simply be seen as "neat" and simply nothing to see here

I say we try and prove your hypothesis

 

[NDWarrior]

Do you all feel that MF and team can over recruit (load up) and then process out via the TP? Especially since most players 2-3 years in and not key players/starters will see the writing on the wall and leave, I'm sure. It seems that since we CAN use the highly popular TP for outgoing transfers but can't benefit nearly as much for transfer inputs, that we would want to over-recruit since NCAA rules that allow for over recruiting as long as you're to 85 players by the Fall have been extended a few years. Even if it's likely to be adding a lot more 3 stars that need development at least there can be extra recruits to backfill higher rated recruits we can't keep committed and coaches are not scrambling to backfill later in the recruiting season when there aren't as many (even 3-star) recruits remaining.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Of course no one is forcing me to watch ND FB - I choose to do so! And I too appreciate ND's commitment to academics and players not being treated too differently from the typical ND student and getting RKGs, etc., but like others, I'm saying some kind of creativity and innovation is needed to change the current situation and ND's NC drought, not necessarily these traditions that most of us appreciate.

We haven't won one since 1993. It's been too long.

 

[stlnd01]

Do you all feel that MF and team can over recruit (load up) and then process out via the TP? Especially since most players 2-3 years in and not key players/starters will see the writing on the wall and leave, I'm sure. It seems that since we CAN use the highly popular TP for outgoing transfers but can't benefit nearly as much for transfer inputs, that we would want to over-recruit since NCAA rules that allow for over recruiting as long as you're to 85 players by the Fall have been extended a few years. Even if it's likely to be adding a lot more 3 stars that need development at least there can be extra recruits to backfill higher rated recruits we can't keep committed and coaches are not scrambling to backfill later in the recruiting season when there aren't as many (even 3-star) recruits remaining.

I think it’s very hard to make the “4 for 40” pitch that is central to our recruiting appeal for many kids when you are obviously processing guys out.

Yes, some guys will “see the writing on the wall” as you put it, and leave on their own when it’s apparent they won’t get on the field as much as they hoped. But many, if not most, of our depth players stay at least until they get their degree, which is probably at least three football seasons. And as a school that values education we are pretty much honor-bound to let them.

In other words there will always be a portion of our roster - let’s say 5 to 10 guys at any given time - who have been passed up by younger players on the depth chart and are unlikely to play meaningful football, but stick around for the degree.

And that is fine. Good, even. It’s how this sport is supposed to be. But it makes the numbers harder if we “over-recruit” the incoming class, because we essentially promise anyone we take three seasons on the roster.

So, long way of saying, no. We shouldn’t recruit guys who we don’t think have much chance of ever playing Notre Dame football on the off chance they surprise us. A few projects are fine. But you’d quickly wind up with too much dead weight on the roster.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Are these baseball and hockey players who are getting drafted right out of high school but still going to college getting money?

 

[TorontoGold]

I’m not that impressed with the whole blue chip rate thing. Steve Angeli, as the 43rd ranked QB, is counted the same as a 5* player. We’re not getting any more elite kids under Freeman. We’re trading in some high ranked 3* kids for low ranked 4*s. It’s better but unlikely it will be enough to get us closer to a NC.

Hopefully some of these kids become difference makers regardless of what they’re ranked.

This comment got me thinking and you're correct the ratio is pretty simplistic, so I scraped the data for the years available for each team for overall talent composite for the years available on 247 (2022 College Football Team Talent Composite).

ND rates out on average the #10 team in average roster talent from 2015 - 2022. Which feels about right given stability from Kelly, and the improvement in talent under Freeman.

There's basically three tiers for the 2015-2022 team talent composition
1. Bama/OSU/Georgia
2. USC/LSU/Clemson
3. FSU/Texas/TAMU/ND/UM/AUB/OK/Florida

Looking at the 2022 ND team they're 76 points back of Clemson to crack the top 5 most talented teams. The 2022 ND class was 15 points higher than Clemson, and the 2023 class was 1 point lower than Clemson. If Freeman can continue closing the gap on the top 5 incrementally we'll be right there as the lackluster 2019/2020 classes graduate out.

Also for those that want to blow Harbaugh just know that his most talented roster was in 2017 and has seen the talent drop ~30 points from that high. Congrats you're trending towards being out of the tier 3 programs and your generational QB is going pro after this year. (CC: Sea Turtle et. al).

***I haven't smoothed out the data otherwise I would post it, there is a pretty clear rankings inflation that happened in 2018 ratings average jumped 20 points from 521.13 in 2017 to 542.55 in 2018.

 

[INLaw]

This comment got me thinking and you're correct the ratio is pretty simplistic, so I scraped the data for the years available for each team for overall talent composite for the years available on 247 (2022 College Football Team Talent Composite).

ND rates out on average the #10 team in average roster talent from 2015 - 2022. Which feels about right given stability from Kelly, and the improvement in talent under Freeman.

There's basically three tiers for the 2015-2022 team talent composition
1. Bama/OSU/Georgia
2. USC/LSU/Clemson
3. FSU/Texas/TAMU/ND/UM/AUB/OK/Florida

Looking at the 2022 ND team they're 76 points back of Clemson to crack the top 5 most talented teams. The 2022 ND class was 15 points higher than Clemson, and the 2023 class was 1 point lower than Clemson. If Freeman can continue closing the gap on the top 5 incrementally we'll be right there as the lackluster 2019/2020 classes graduate out.

Also for those that want to blow Harbaugh just know that his most talented roster was in 2017 and has seen the talent drop ~30 points from that high. Congrats you're trending towards being out of the tier 3 programs and your generational QB is going pro after this year. (CC: Sea Turtle et. al).

***I haven't smoothed out the data otherwise I would post it, there is a pretty clear rankings inflation that happened in 2018 ratings average jumped 20 points from 521.13 in 2017 to 542.55 in 2018.

The eye test agrees with your date. Kind of surprised Auburn that high