Sep 28 | Louisville

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

These ticket prices right now are nuts for a top 20 match up - so many for sale seats in the Lville section. Do they just not care?

There might be some travel disruptions coming from their part of the country.

 

[SDIrishFan]

Anyway.. the tape is out there. Riley can’t throw deep & even if Mike wants to force him to we’re at best hoping for a PI or blown coverage.

two of the deep balls that ended in pass interference against Miami were all right on the money, as was the TD to Collins. Also the deep ball that Greathouse dropped against NIU was a beauty.

Yes the interception against NIU was bad bad, but he did prove he can go deep.

It’s the intermediate that is the struggle, 10-20 yard throws.

 

[irishff1014]

If this forecast is correct (30+ mph wind), since the Irish can't pass anyway, wouldn't this favor the Irish? View attachment 3056547

If this ends up being the weather at least we should end up with another NC State game.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

I for the life of me cant figure out where this notion that we cant stop the run from. Yes NIU had more success than they should gave, but overall still averaged just 4.2 ypc and last week Miami ran for 100 yrds on 3.9 ypc. A&m was like 3.7 ypc and purdue was less than 2 ypc. Believe it or not most teams do get some first downs during the course of a game.

 

[FWIrish4]

I keep seeing this Steve Angeli sack narrative, primarily off Purdue recency bias I’d imagine. Aside from Purdue…

- Sacked just twice in the bowl game last year.
- Literally never sacked in 2023 (obviously very small sample size of drives). But he did go 8-11 for 130 yards and 2 TDs against TNST, and 6-7 for 92 yards and 1 TD against Pitt, so he did see some action… and he was never sacked.

He was sacked three times against Purdue but I really think he just went in with a “fuck it we ball” mindset, trying to make things happen with the game out of hand to increase playing time.

Steve is mobile enough to occasionally avoid pressure when it comes. If the tradeoff is a few sacks per game (which happens to basically any QB) at the gain of a legitimate passing attack, give me that any time.

Sorry for the essay. I’ve just seen the sack argument raised several times and I think it’s significantly overblown, primarily as copium and a gasping-at-straws defense for sticking with Riley (who, I’ll admit, has higher upside if he puts it all together).

You think the guy on the ND beat that knows football the best is posting to grasp at straws? It’s a legit concern when correlated with pressure rate.

From Jamie U

“Maybe it's harsh to call this a red flag, but let me just say that I’m monitoring that Angeli was pressured three times and sacked on all three. Combine that with the Oregon State game and he’s been pressured seven times and was sacked on five of them.​

The highest percentage of pressures that turned into sacks for a quarterback last season was 36.8%, so being sacked five out of seven is not great, Bob.”​

 

[Wild Bill]

I for the lifr of me cant figure out where this notion thatvwe csnt stop the run from. Yes NIU had more success than they should gave, but overall still aberaged just 4.2 ypc and last week Miami ran for 100 yrds on 3.9 ypc. A&m was like 3.7 ypc and purdue was less than 2 ypc. Believe it or not most teams dohet some first downs during the course of a game.

The devil is in the details. In their first two games, Miami had only about fifty yards rushing combined, yet managed to put up 110 yards against ND. And if ND hadn’t pulled away, Miami would have gained even more.

Northern ran for 190. Not a bad day on the ground. More importantly, when they needed 3 or 4 yards, they got them. They controlled the line of scrimmage, extended drives with their run game, and limited ND’s possessions. Their final drive epitomized the entire game - they gained the necessary yards on the ground when it mattered and came away with 3 points to win the game.

They need to get better or they'll get shredded by a P4 team that can run the ball.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

These ticket prices right now are nuts for a top 20 match up - so many for sale seats in the Lville section. Do they just not care?

One of their beat guys said UL fans are buying on secondary market due to prices & claims there will be plenty of red in the stadium.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

The devil is in the details. In their first two games, Miami had only about fifty yards rushing combined, yet managed to put up 110 yards against ND. And if ND hadn’t pulled away, Miami would have gained even more.

Northern ran for 190. Not a bad day on the ground. More importantly, when they needed 3 or 4 yards, they got them. They controlled the line of scrimmage, extended drives with their run game, and limited ND’s possessions. Their final drive epitomized the entire game - they gained the necessary yards on the ground when it mattered and came away with 3 points to win the game.

They need to get better or they'll get shredded by a P4 team that can run the ball.

Teams change from week to week. Prime example was last season when UL was held to 20 yds rushing on 29 carries vs NCST week prior to hosting ND. ND fans looked at that and thought UL wouldn‘t be too threatening on offense. Lo & behold the gashed ND for 180+ yds. I saw somewhere that Golden admitted he had the wrong game plan. He tends to put more emphasis on stopping the pass but hopefully he doesn’t assume b/c GT shut them down on the ground that ND won’t have to worry about it.

 

[stlnd01]

The devil is in the details. In their first two games, Miami had only about fifty yards rushing combined, yet managed to put up 110 yards against ND. And if ND hadn’t pulled away, Miami would have gained even more.

Northern ran for 190. Not a bad day on the ground. More importantly, when they needed 3 or 4 yards, they got them. They controlled the line of scrimmage, extended drives with their run game, and limited ND’s possessions. Their final drive epitomized the entire game - they gained the necessary yards on the ground when it mattered and came away with 3 points to win the game.

They need to get better or they'll get shredded by a P4 team that can run the ball.

Hopefully NIU game this year is like the Louisville game last year, an aberration where our entire team failed to show up. Yes, Miami ran on us some, but they couldn't really run on us when they needed to. Also linebackers should get better by the week. The young ones are still on the steep part of the growth curve.

 

[Irish#1]

There might be some travel disruptions coming from their part of the country.

Looking at Helene, it looks like it shouldn't be a big factor for fans coming from the Louisville area. Most of the residual effect is going to happen today.

Leonard has happy feet and Angeli stays in the pocket too long. Guess we better play Minchey or Carr.

 

[T-Boone]

Hopefully NIU game this year is like the Louisville game last year, an aberration where our entire team failed to show up. Yes, Miami ran on us some, but they couldn't really run on us when they needed to. Also linebackers should get better by the week. The young ones are still on the steep part of the growth curve.

I like the way you put it about the young LBs. One of those is going to be a star by next season. Could be any one of them.

 

[tko]

I'm begging to see a hitch and go if Louisville sits on the short routes trying to pick 6. Pump fake like Quinn vs UCLA back in the day.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

The devil is in the details. In their first two games, Miami had only about fifty yards rushing combined, yet managed to put up 110 yards against ND. And if ND hadn’t pulled away, Miami would have gained even more.

Northern ran for 190. Not a bad day on the ground. More importantly, when they needed 3 or 4 yards, they got them. They controlled the line of scrimmage, extended drives with their run game, and limited ND’s possessions. Their final drive epitomized the entire game - they gained the necessary yards on the ground when it mattered and came away with 3 points to win the game.

They need to get better or they'll get shredded by a P4 team that can run the ball.

I would agree with you they need to improve, but we also never really stack the box with intentionality to stop the run. Miami having not run the ball much then having 110 yds rushing doesnt mean much when ultimately you score 3 pts and put up 229 yds of total offense.
NIU was the outlier, but that basically nothing happened how it should have happened that game. That should never be the case, but it happened and hopefully the team has processed it, continues to learn from it, but ultimately has moved past it unlike many in here.
Golden has shown time and time again he knows the right adjustments to make and he showed that again last week. Hopefully he identifies and makes any quickly this week as I think falling behind will complicate matters for our offense and overall team confidence starting with the QB.

 

[irish4ever]

There might be some travel disruptions coming from their part of the country.

It's slightly over a 4 hr drive from Louisville. I'm going to the game and I have no problem with my 5 hr. drive ... unless the Irish play like they did the 1st qtr. of Miami or NIU game!

 

[Irish du Nord]

Hardest video that ND has posted this year sheesh

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Hardest video that ND has posted this year sheesh

Red and Meth?! ND by a million.

 

[SDIrishFan]

Hardest video that ND has posted this year sheesh

Man, you can never go wrong with Red and Meth. Used to be my jam! 🔥

 

[Jimmy3Putt]

Meth... good Jets fan.

 

[oddz313]

Weather says steady rain but not the high winds like today. 15 mph maybe at times but who knows with the weather man

 

[Wild Bill]

I would agree with you they need to improve, but we also never really stack the box with intentionality to stop the run. Miami having not run the ball much then having 110 yds rushing doesnt mean much when ultimately you score 3 pts and put up 229 yds of total offense.
NIU was the outlier, but that basically nothing happened how it should have happened that game. That should never be the case, but it happened and hopefully the team has processed it, continues to learn from it, but ultimately has moved past it unlike many in here.
Golden has shown time and time again he knows the right adjustments to make and he showed that again last week. Hopefully he identifies and makes any quickly this week as I think falling behind will complicate matters for our offense and overall team confidence starting with the QB.

The LBers are young and it showed against NIU. They played better against A&M and Miami, and I’m confident Golden will continue to develop them as the season progresses.. They would play a lot better if the D line could hold the point of attack or maybe even get some penetration. It’s tough to play linebacker when a defensive lineman is getting pushed back into your lap.

I don’t follow the defensive line scheme closely, but they may need to make some schematic adjustments in terms of alignment or responsibility. It doesn’t make sense for some of these guys to consistently get pushed back. If you’ve got a player who struggles head-up on a guard, you need to shade him. If a guy can’t play two-gap, then you’ve got to shift to one-gap or find someone who can handle two-gap responsibilities. Fixing this will be tougher than the linebacker issue - they just need reps. These D-linemen either need a scheme that matches their skillsets or a foot in their ass.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Weather says steady rain but not the high winds like today. 15 mph maybe at times but who knows with the weather man

Looks like a lot of the rain is going to stay south of us.

 

[NDPhilly]

 

[Irishfanforlife23]

Agree. Hence my concerns about Navy and Army, the two most difficult teams left on our schedule. The MO to beat Notre Dame is to sustain drives and run the clock. Shorten the game. The ND offense is a rhythm based offense. See Purdue and part of Miami OH when ND was in rhythm. Any team willing to deploy this strategy can and will beat Notre Dame. Any team who wants to blow the roof off the defense is playing into Notre Dames hands. That's why if Notre Dame gets up two scores on you, it forces you to be more aggressive and hence, make mistakes to the group of ball hawks in our secondary.

I'm not worried about ND against the big boys, I'm worried about run heavy teams that can shorten the game (Navy and Army specifically) and keep the offense out of rhythm. Army in particular is going to be really difficult. ND has to score and get up on teams to make them aggressive. No team can beat them deep.


EDIT - IN RESPONSE TO User: Wild Bill and NIU and Miami's running game.

 

[Irish du Nord]

Agree. Hence my concerns about Navy and Army, the two most difficult teams left on our schedule. The MO to beat Notre Dame is to sustain drives and run the clock. Shorten the game. The ND offense is a rhythm based offense. See Purdue and part of Miami OH when ND was in rhythm. Any team willing to deploy this strategy can and will beat Notre Dame. Any team who wants to blow the roof off the defense is playing into Notre Dames hands. That's why if Notre Dame gets up two scores on you, it forces you to be more aggressive and hence, make mistakes to the group of ball hawks in our secondary.

I'm not worried about ND against the big boys, I'm worried about run heavy teams that can shorten the game (Navy and Army specifically) and keep the offense out of rhythm. Army in particular is going to be really difficult. ND has to score and get up on teams to make them aggressive. No team can beat them deep.


EDIT - IN RESPONSE TO User: Wild Bill and NIU and Miami's running game.

Louisville could do this, it depends if Brohm deviates from his typical coaching philosophy.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Red and Meth?! ND by a million.

Meth? Reslife is ok with that?

 

[Katzenboyer]

Louisville could do this, it depends if Brohm deviates from his typical coaching philosophy.

Louisville has relied on explosive plays, not sustained drives, thus far this year. They rushed for 57 yards against Georgia Tech, and needed a defensive and special teams TD to win that game.

I understand the board is worried about the fact that Louisville is a step up in competition, but I think some of you are massively overrating Louisville's quality right now. They've played two cupcakes and a GT team that probably doesn't make a bowl this year.

There's a reason Vegas and the smart money is on ND.

 

[Irish#1]

Agree. Hence my concerns about Navy and Army, the two most difficult teams left on our schedule. The MO to beat Notre Dame is to sustain drives and run the clock. Shorten the game. The ND offense is a rhythm based offense. See Purdue and part of Miami OH when ND was in rhythm. Any team willing to deploy this strategy can and will beat Notre Dame. Any team who wants to blow the roof off the defense is playing into Notre Dames hands. That's why if Notre Dame gets up two scores on you, it forces you to be more aggressive and hence, make mistakes to the group of ball hawks in our secondary.

I'm not worried about ND against the big boys, I'm worried about run heavy teams that can shorten the game (Navy and Army specifically) and keep the offense out of rhythm. Army in particular is going to be really difficult. ND has to score and get up on teams to make them aggressive. No team can beat them deep.


EDIT - IN RESPONSE TO User: Wild Bill and NIU and Miami's running game.

IMO Golden has those teams figured out. It just requires the D to play disciplined.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

You think the guy on the ND beat that knows football the best is posting to grasp at straws? It’s a legit concern when correlated with pressure rate.

From Jamie U

“Maybe it's harsh to call this a red flag, but let me just say that I’m monitoring that Angeli was pressured three times and sacked on all three. Combine that with the Oregon State game and he’s been pressured seven times and was sacked on five of them.​

The highest percentage of pressures that turned into sacks for a quarterback last season was 36.8%, so being sacked five out of seven is not great, Bob.”​

It’s a legit concern. But arguing to not give him a chance and stick with RL partly off a two game, 7 dropbacks-with-pressure sample size feels highly selective and ultimately noisy.

What about the few drives he had in 2023 regular season games, where he went unsacked and probably experienced dropback pressure at least a few times. Why are those excluded from his sack rate? (And we can’t say because they were irrelevant due to mop-up duty. If so, we should throw out the 3 for 3 from Purdue).

I think this almost proves my point - I feel people are overemphasizing the sack rate and grasping at some straws to justify the sunk cost of Riley.

Do I think Steve’s sack-on-dropback-rate is misleadingly high? Of course. As Jamie said, worst in CFB was 37% last year.
Do I still think Steve will often be sacked, possibly at a rate that is even above average? Sure, maybe.
Do I think it’s bad enough to the point where we shouldn’t try giving significant snaps to a QB who seems far more accurate throwing the ball? I don’t.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

You think the guy on the ND beat that knows football the best is posting to grasp at straws? It’s a legit concern when correlated with pressure rate.

From Jamie U

“Maybe it's harsh to call this a red flag, but let me just say that I’m monitoring that Angeli was pressured three times and sacked on all three. Combine that with the Oregon State game and he’s been pressured seven times and was sacked on five of them.​

The highest percentage of pressures that turned into sacks for a quarterback last season was 36.8%, so being sacked five out of seven is not great, Bob.”​

Thanks for this response, btw. I think discussions like these are awesome and ultimately why I come to the board.

You and Jamie know your stuff. Doesn’t mean I can’t disagree haha

 

[stlnd01]

Do I think Steve’s sack-on-dropback-rate is misleadingly high? Of course. As Jamie said, worst in CFB was 37% last year.
Do I still think Steve will often be sacked, possibly at a rate that is even above average? Sure, maybe.
Do I think it’s bad enough to the point where we shouldn’t try giving significant snaps to a QB who seems far more accurate throwing the ball? I don’t.

I think I'd worry a bit more about Angeli and sacks behind our inexperienced OL than I would normally - especially compared to last year behind Alt and Fisher. Leonard has run out of a number of sacks - particularly against A&M - that I'm not sure Steve would've. And if we think Louisville is one of the stronger pass rushes we'll face, in what is basically a must-win game for our season, I'm not sure I'd rush to make that Steve's first "real" start.
Honestly I can see it either way. But given Leonard's superior mobility, and what (modest) progress we saw from him last week throwing, I'd start Leonard. With a short leash.