Science

[Irishize]

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma...zer-biontech-ceos-sound-off-vaccine-timelines

 

[Irishize]

“The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19”


https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/

 

[Irishize]

“Immunity to COVID-19 is Probably Higher than Tests Have Shown”

https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown

 

[Legacy]

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 Spike mutations
A SARS-CoV-2 variant carrying the Spike protein amino acid change D614G has become the most prevalent form in the global pandemic. (Los Alamos Nat Labs)

Newer variant of COVID-19–causing virus dominates global infections

Virus with D614G change in Spike out-competes original strain, but may not make patients sicker

The time to do serosurveys for COVID-19 is now (Lancet)

In their study in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Scott Pallett and colleagues1 assessed the performance of lateral flow serological assays and estimated the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection to be 10·6% (95% CI 7·6–13·6) in asymptomatic health-care workers and 44·7% (42·0–47·4) in symptomatic health-care workers at two hospitals in London, UK. This work raises important issues in the design of seroprevalence surveys, how they should be done, and, importantly, how to interpret and act on the results. (Cont)

 

[Irishize]

The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion

Why has hydroxychloroquine been disregarded?

First, as all know, the medication has become highly politicized. For many, it is viewed as a marker of political identity, on both sides of the political spectrum. Nobody needs me to remind them that this is not how medicine should proceed. We must judge this medication strictly on the science. When doctors graduate from medical school, they formally promise to make the health and life of the patient their first consideration, without biases of race, religion, nationality, social standing—or political affiliation. Lives must come first.

https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeat...exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535

 

[Old Man Mike]

Regarding Risch and Science: There have been some MDs who were surprised to read that Newsweek had published this opinion (Risch's word) in the magazine. What his motivation is for doing so is unknown. The fact that he is at Yale does not make him scientifically bullet proof. His own publication on this subject is in a journal for which he is on the editorial board. So we should view his "opinion" here with some open-minded assessment.

The studies that Risch features are widely disagreed with by the epidemiology research community --- at least the majority of those studies cited are thought to be poorly done. There is apparently one study which shows some efficacy for the drug, there are several studies which point the other way. Brazil is an example. The country has been hard hit, and this generated some really poorly done studies, Finding that these were trash, a full-blown Brazilian study was organized, just published in the New England Journal of Medicine, and showed no difference between the hydroxychloroquine and normal standard treatment. WHO has canceled its studies. The FDA has a new study monograph explaining the negative results and the warning signs.

No matter how you cut it, this mess is messy and no simple solution is happily sitting there to be cherry-picked. And what WHO and FDA and Brazilian epidemiologists and world epidemiologists want to accomplish here can't have much to do with US politics. All the scientists I've ever known want to do SCIENCE not politics.

 

[Irishize]

Regarding Risch and Science: There have been some MDs who were surprised to read that Newsweek had published this opinion (Risch's word) in the magazine. What his motivation is for doing so is unknown. The fact that he is at Yale does not make him scientifically bullet proof. His own publication on this subject is in a journal for which he is on the editorial board. So we should view his "opinion" here with some open-minded assessment.

The studies that Risch features are widely disagreed with by the epidemiology research community --- at least the majority of those studies cited are thought to be poorly done. There is apparently one study which shows some efficacy for the drug, there are several studies which point the other way. Brazil is an example. The country has been hard hit, and this generated some really poorly done studies, Finding that these were trash, a full-blown Brazilian study was organized, just published in the New England Journal of Medicine, and showed no difference between the hydroxychloroquine and normal standard treatment. WHO has canceled its studies. The FDA has a new study monograph explaining the negative results and the warning signs.

No matter how you cut it, this mess is messy and no simple solution is happily sitting there to be cherry-picked. And what WHO and FDA and Brazilian epidemiologists and world epidemiologists want to accomplish here can't have much to do with US politics. All the scientists I've ever known want to do SCIENCE not politics.

Ok. Dr. Risch is dual-degreed. He’s taken the Hippocratic oath. He’s pointed out that Plaquenil was effective EARLY in treatment and acknowledged it does little good later on. He also pointed out that the media was “cherry picking” (to use your phrase) the AE data and not telling us that the long-term AEs were seen in patients taking the drug for lupus....not short-term malaria or COVID-19.

This molecule has been around for decades and I suspect it’s on the the NIH list of top essential drugs in the history of medicine. I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 nor will I vote for him in 2020 but I think Dr. Risch makes a fair point that the benefit/risk ratio of this drug has been politicized.

I know MDs who are apolitical who have gotten into pissing matches w/ PharmD about where/why they are prescribing this generic drug. I’m not criticizing you personally on this matter but the MSM has been reckless in their reporting on this from Day 1.

 

[Legacy]

First, what is "immunological dark matter" in the article? Something like deus ex machina?

Cross reactivity with other coronaviruses has been reported for a while. In retrospect, this may argue against the withdrawl of funding for those who were developing a vaccine for SARS in 2002-03

SARS-CoV-2, “common cold” coronaviruses’ cross-reactivity and “herd immunity”: The razor of Ockham (1285-1347)?

Two recent studies on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquire that come to opposite conclusions are worth examining.

The Henry Ford HS Study:
Treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and combination in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

This one does not limit the patient group based on severity of symptoms and uses mortality as the end point for determining effectiveness.

The second was published in the New England J. of Medicine on a Brazilian study.

Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate Covid-19

This limits the studied patients also in hospitalized patients to those with mild or moderate COVID. Their end point was improvement in clinical status after fifteen days. Of concern were the prolonged QT interval and elevated liver tests in hydroxychloroquine groups.

Trump bought 63 million doses of hydroxy for the national stockpile.

 

[Bishop2b5]

The famed Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico collapsed this morning, essentially destroying the huge antenna. It had been deteriorating for some time and, I believe, was already offline and the NSF was trying to decide if it could be rebuilt, repaired, or needed to be demolished. This was one of the most important radio telescopes in the world with a long history of discoveries to its credit.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...pJobID=2020181119&spReportId=MjAyMDE4MTExOQS2

 

[Old Man Mike]

Yeh. The beast has been "off-line" since August due to damages.

Way back in 1974, early SETIans (Frank Drake, Carl Sagan types) thought that it would be "neat" to send a message to the stars using the big ear as a gun instead. They embedded all sorts of info in the message which intelligences could crack and decode (very few on IE would qualify however so we would remain ignorant of advanced intelligence in the universe.)

There WAS however an internationally agreed upon "law" that no scientists would take it upon themselves to broadcast such information into space. This included MILITARY policy as well, as it was the military that didn't want us spewing our location around. By definition: anyone who could follow such a trail and had the tech to get here would be WAY tech smarter than us and could easily kick our a$$es. The Arecibo SETIans got slapped around a bit for this Boys-having-fun business. One senior professor actually quit the "club." So, the eggheads were Once-Dumb.

It turns out that they were Twice Dumb. In order to broadcast to a very large number of stars (ostensibly in hopes of finding someone listening), they chose one of the big "Globular Clusters" (no, this is not a name for a political rally) to aim the telescope towards. The problem? The Globular Cluster was made of Generation One Stars. Well, so what? Generation One stars were formed early in the galactic evolution, and have yet to partake of the heavy elements produced by supernovas and dispersed by them in their titanic death throes.

Again, so what? Who cares? Well, maybe no one --- for sure not people who are uninterested in science (this eliminates almost all politicians) --- BUT, if you don't have the heavy elements, you don't get any planetary systems, you don't get any Life or Evolution --- AND THERE AIN'T NO ONE THERE TO RECEIVE YOUR CLEVER MESSAGE.

And no ... the brainiacs didn't have this all thought through to sidestep their playful illegal ploy.

 

[ulukinatme]

The famed Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico collapsed this morning, essentially destroying the huge antenna. It had been deteriorating for some time and, I believe, was already offline and the NSF was trying to decide if it could be rebuilt, repaired, or needed to be demolished. This was one of the most important radio telescopes in the world with a long history of discoveries to its credit.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...pJobID=2020181119&spReportId=MjAyMDE4MTExOQS2

I can't see or think of that location without thinking about this:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6HFkF8904Uw" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Crazy that it collapsed before an already planned demolition. Great timing! You saved us some work (Probably not).

 

[Bishop2b5]

Crazy that it collapsed before an already planned demolition. Great timing! You saved us some work (Probably not).

I think that it had already fallen into bad shape and was teetering on collapse, which is why they were considering demolishing it. Part of the cable system holding the suspended equipment had already broken a month or two ago. Today, the rest broke, dropping the entire thing onto the dish below.

 

[Legacy]

Safety and efficacy of inhaled nebulised interferon beta-1a (SNG001) for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial (Lancet)

This may be part of the arsenal not only for critical care patients but those admitted to lesser levels of care including the overflow patients now being admitted to temporary expansion of facilities or field hospitals.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Yeh, this is mainly (to my eye) "Man The Barricades" heavy rapid treatment for severe lung attack cases. It wouldn't fit the label "cure" though.

 

[Legacy]

The known unknowns of T cell immunity to COVID-19
(AAAS immunology.sciencemag)

Systematic Examination of Antigen-Specific Recall T Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2 versus Influenza Virus Reveals a Distinct Inflammatory Profile (J. of Immunology)

 

[Irishize]

BioNTech is the company behind the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and are now reporting a hopeful vaccine for MS.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...NTech-creates-multiple-sclerosis-vaccine.html