Rivals average star ratings vs games won...

Easton Pa ND Fan · Aug 16, 2010

A 4-yr running average of stars per recruit ('avSTAR') was
compared to team 2009 actual win percentages ('% won'). A
baseline ('expctd') was established. The difference be-
tween the actual and expected is columned as a percentage
('diff').

Teams noticeably above or below the baseline are listed.
These teams have either superior coaching, weak schedules
or unusual players. No roster adjustments were made...Tom

<pre>Teams avSTAR % won expctd % diff Teams avSTAR % won expctd % diff Boise 2.2975 100.0% 46.46% 115.2% Wash. 2.8589 41.67% 54.24% -23.17% Cinci 2.2498 92.31% 45.98% 100.8% Kan . 2.8614 41.67% 54.28% -23.23% CenMi 2.0741 85.71% 44.50% 92.61% Ut S 2.0239 33.33% 44.15% -24.51% TCU . 2.6031 92.31% 50.18% 83.96% Ark S 2.0444 33.33% 44.29% -24.75% BYU . 2.4698 84.62% 48.41% 74.80% La T 2.1807 33.33% 45.35% -26.50% MidTn 2.1278 76.92% 44.91% 71.28% UTEP. 2.1912 33.33% 45.45% -26.67% Navy. 1.3534 71.43% 42.65% 67.48% S D S 2.2095 33.33% 45.61% -26.92% Iowa. 2.6681 84.62% 51.13% 65.50% In . 2.3028 33.33% 46.51% -28.34% Houst 2.1931 71.43% 45.46% 57.13% Templ 2.0372 69.23% 44.24% 56.49% Notre 3.6418 50.00% 71.96% -30.52% Ut . 2.5661 76.92% 49.66% 54.89% TroyS 2.2458 69.23% 45.95% 50.66% Baylr 2.4583 33.33% 48.26% -30.94% Oh . 2.0573 64.29% 44.38% 44.86% Syrse 2.4790 33.33% 48.52% -31.31% A F . 1.7817 61.54% 42.93% 43.35% Louvl 2.6896 33.33% 51.46% -35.23% Ga T 2.8953 78.57% 54.88% 43.17% ArizS 2.9488 33.33% 55.87% -40.34% E Car 2.1868 64.29% 45.41% 41.58% Mich. 3.5768 41.67% 70.19% -40.63% Wisc. 2.8849 76.92% 54.70% 40.62% Tulne 2.0732 25.00% 44.50% -43.82% Al . 3.6163 100.0% 71.26% 40.33% Col S 2.0950 25.00% 44.66% -44.02% Pa S 3.1974 84.62% 60.92% 38.90% FL I 2.1578 25.00% 45.16% -44.64% Nev . 2.0581 61.54% 44.39% 38.63% Akron 2.2177 25.00% 45.68% -45.27% Id . 2.0750 61.54% 44.51% 38.26% NewMS 2.0126 23.08% 44.08% -47.64% Vir T 2.9808 76.92% 56.47% 36.21% Vir . 2.7807 25.00% 52.91% -52.75% Conn. 2.1999 61.54% 45.52% 35.19% Col . 2.8249 25.00% 53.65% -53.40% SMU . 2.2044 61.54% 45.56% 35.07% IL . 2.9205 25.00% 55.34% -54.82% Or . 3.0307 76.92% 57.44% 33.91% S J S 2.0619 16.67% 44.42% -62.47% PittS 3.0571 76.92% 57.97% 32.69% BallS 2.0873 16.67% 44.60% -62.62% Rutgr 2.7482 69.23% 52.38% 32.17% RiceU 2.0996 16.67% 44.69% -62.70% Frsno 2.3353 61.54% 46.85% 31.36% No Tx 2.1467 16.67% 45.07% -63.01% UCF . 2.3928 61.54% 47.49% 29.59% Memph 2.2908 16.67% 46.39% -64.07% WestV 2.8125 69.23% 53.44% 29.55% Vanbl 2.3920 16.67% 47.48% -64.89% Nor'W 2.4892 61.54% 48.65% 26.50% Md . 3.0017 16.67% 56.87% -70.69% Tex . 3.6962 92.86% 73.49% 26.36% New M 2.0957 08.33% 44.66% -81.35% TexT. 2.8901 69.23% 54.79% 26.36% MiaOh 2.1033 08.33% 44.72% -81.37% So FL 2.5879 61.54% 49.97% 23.15% WashS 2.4156 08.33% 47.75% -82.55% </pre>

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HereComeTheIrish · Aug 16, 2010

Easton Pa ND Fan said:
A 4-yr running average of stars per recruit ('avSTAR') was
compared to team 2009 actual win percentages ('% won'). A
baseline ('expctd') was established. The difference be-
tween the actual and expected is columned as a percentage
('diff').

Teams noticeably above or below the baseline are listed.
These teams have either superior coaching, weak schedules
or unusual players. No roster adjustments were made...Tom

<pre>Teams avSTAR % won expctd % diff Teams avSTAR % won expctd % diff Boise 2.2975 100.0% 46.46% 115.2% Wash. 2.8589 41.67% 54.24% -23.17% Cinci 2.2498 92.31% 45.98% 100.8% Kan . 2.8614 41.67% 54.28% -23.23% CenMi 2.0741 85.71% 44.50% 92.61% Ut S 2.0239 33.33% 44.15% -24.51% TCU . 2.6031 92.31% 50.18% 83.96% Ark S 2.0444 33.33% 44.29% -24.75% BYU . 2.4698 84.62% 48.41% 74.80% La T 2.1807 33.33% 45.35% -26.50% MidTn 2.1278 76.92% 44.91% 71.28% UTEP. 2.1912 33.33% 45.45% -26.67% Navy. 1.3534 71.43% 42.65% 67.48% S D S 2.2095 33.33% 45.61% -26.92% Iowa. 2.6681 84.62% 51.13% 65.50% In . 2.3028 33.33% 46.51% -28.34% Houst 2.1931 71.43% 45.46% 57.13% Templ 2.0372 69.23% 44.24% 56.49% Notre 3.6418 50.00% 71.96% -30.52% Ut . 2.5661 76.92% 49.66% 54.89% TroyS 2.2458 69.23% 45.95% 50.66% Baylr 2.4583 33.33% 48.26% -30.94% Oh . 2.0573 64.29% 44.38% 44.86% Syrse 2.4790 33.33% 48.52% -31.31% A F . 1.7817 61.54% 42.93% 43.35% Louvl 2.6896 33.33% 51.46% -35.23% Ga T 2.8953 78.57% 54.88% 43.17% ArizS 2.9488 33.33% 55.87% -40.34% E Car 2.1868 64.29% 45.41% 41.58% Mich. 3.5768 41.67% 70.19% -40.63% Wisc. 2.8849 76.92% 54.70% 40.62% Tulne 2.0732 25.00% 44.50% -43.82% Al . 3.6163 100.0% 71.26% 40.33% Col S 2.0950 25.00% 44.66% -44.02% Pa S 3.1974 84.62% 60.92% 38.90% FL I 2.1578 25.00% 45.16% -44.64% Nev . 2.0581 61.54% 44.39% 38.63% Akron 2.2177 25.00% 45.68% -45.27% Id . 2.0750 61.54% 44.51% 38.26% NewMS 2.0126 23.08% 44.08% -47.64% Vir T 2.9808 76.92% 56.47% 36.21% Vir . 2.7807 25.00% 52.91% -52.75% Conn. 2.1999 61.54% 45.52% 35.19% Col . 2.8249 25.00% 53.65% -53.40% SMU . 2.2044 61.54% 45.56% 35.07% IL . 2.9205 25.00% 55.34% -54.82% Or . 3.0307 76.92% 57.44% 33.91% S J S 2.0619 16.67% 44.42% -62.47% PittS 3.0571 76.92% 57.97% 32.69% BallS 2.0873 16.67% 44.60% -62.62% Rutgr 2.7482 69.23% 52.38% 32.17% RiceU 2.0996 16.67% 44.69% -62.70% Frsno 2.3353 61.54% 46.85% 31.36% No Tx 2.1467 16.67% 45.07% -63.01% UCF . 2.3928 61.54% 47.49% 29.59% Memph 2.2908 16.67% 46.39% -64.07% WestV 2.8125 69.23% 53.44% 29.55% Vanbl 2.3920 16.67% 47.48% -64.89% Nor'W 2.4892 61.54% 48.65% 26.50% Md . 3.0017 16.67% 56.87% -70.69% Tex . 3.6962 92.86% 73.49% 26.36% New M 2.0957 08.33% 44.66% -81.35% TexT. 2.8901 69.23% 54.79% 26.36% MiaOh 2.1033 08.33% 44.72% -81.37% So FL 2.5879 61.54% 49.97% 23.15% WashS 2.4156 08.33% 47.75% -82.55% </pre>

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Interesting.... By the looks of things and if I'm reading this right Tom, I'd say we got less with more if you catch my drift. Our avg. star rating vs. 2009 production vs. others, their star level/production is pretty unimpressive. Good analysis....I think.

ACamp1900 · Aug 16, 2010

At least we beat Syracuse this time 'round.

NDinL.A. · Aug 16, 2010

HereComeTheIrish said:
Interesting.... By the looks of things and if I'm reading this right Tom, I'd say we got less with more if you catch my drift. Our avg. star rating vs. 2009 production vs. others, their star level/production is pretty unimpressive. Good analysis....I think.

Yeah, pretty much what we've all seen with our own eyes. (But nice job Tom)

However, look at the #2 team on that list. He's our coach now. :rock:

IrishJayhawk · Aug 16, 2010

HereComeTheIrish said:
Interesting.... By the looks of things and if I'm reading this right Tom, I'd say we got less with more if you catch my drift. Our avg. star rating vs. 2009 production vs. others, their star level/production is pretty unimpressive. Good analysis....I think.

We got less with more, and Cincinnati got more with less. They were better than everyone but Boise St.

That combination is oh so exciting...

Old Man Mike · Aug 16, 2010

Beautiful Man. If I knew how to do it I'd try to give you one of those little iconic rewards for the work. There are many stories in your list. ND's is not a pretty one, and Cincinnati's is. Impressive non-BCS schools are all near the top, reflecting what the nation feels is their exceptional ability to "coach up". Some places like Texas [with mediocre coaching] still win because their "stars" are creamed off the top [i.e. some Five stars are more "five" than others, and some fours,etc,] and their schedule is packed with people who are already psyched out and don't really believe they're going to win, but Urban hasn't done well [relatively speaking] with his 5s and 4s has he? I am a little surprised that Frank Beamer isn't even higher than he is, but I believe that in recent years people have done better at countering his game-changing "BeamerBall" schemes. How did Carroll and USC do?

IrishJayhawk · Aug 16, 2010

If you look closely, you'll also see that Central Michigan is 3rd. If I count right, that includes the 2006 season, Kelly's last one there (he coached the bowl game for Cincy that year). That also reflects on him.

This ship is going to be righted...

Easton Pa ND Fan · Aug 16, 2010

Poodle Pete underachieved...

Poodle Pete underachieved...

Old Man Mike said:
Beautiful Man. If I knew how to do it I'd try to give you one of those little iconic rewards for the work. There are many stories in your list. ND's is not a pretty one, and Cincinnati's is. Impressive non-BCS schools are all near the top, reflecting what the nation feels is their exceptional ability to "coach up". Some places like Texas [with mediocre coaching] still win because their "stars" are creamed off the top [i.e. some Five stars are more "five" than others, and some fours,etc,] and their schedule is packed with people who are already psyched out and don't really believe they're going to win, but Urban hasn't done well [relatively speaking] with his 5s and 4s has he? I am a little surprised that Frank Beamer isn't even higher than he is, but I believe that in recent years people have done better at countering his game-changing "BeamerBall" schemes. How did Carroll and USC do?

<pre>Teams avSTAR % won expctd % diff USC . 3.9849 69.23% 82.25% -15.83% </pre>

Old Man Mike · Aug 16, 2010

Beautiful. You are a wonder-worker. [and Carroll is not].

Easton Pa ND Fan · Aug 17, 2010

Mea culpa...

Mea culpa...

ACamp1900 said:
At least we beat Syracuse this time 'round.

"These teams have either superior coaching, weak schedules
or unusual players." was in reference to teams only above
the trendline (+ %). Hope it did not mislead...Tom

Easton Pa ND Fan · Aug 17, 2010

Appreciate your input...

Appreciate your input...

Old Man Mike said:
Beautiful Man. If I knew how to do it I'd try to give you one of those little iconic rewards for the work. There are many stories in your list. ND's is not a pretty one, and Cincinnati's is. Impressive non-BCS schools are all near the top, reflecting what the nation feels is their exceptional ability to "coach up". Some places like Texas [with mediocre coaching] still win because their "stars" are creamed off the top [i.e. some Five stars are more "five" than others, and some fours,etc,] and their schedule is packed with people who are already psyched out and don't really believe they're going to win, but Urban hasn't done well [relatively speaking] with his 5s and 4s has he? I am a little surprised that Frank Beamer isn't even higher than he is, but I believe that in recent years people have done better at countering his game-changing "BeamerBall" schemes. How did Carroll and USC do?

Approx 60 teams (half of Div 1) were within +/- 20% of the
trendline and not shown. The 4-yr running av stars/player
represents 11,180 cumulative recruits playing 1320+ games
for 120 teams in 2009.

Some interesting things emerged. The average stars were
almost twice as likely to predict av defensive points/game
compared to offense points. Also:

+ 46% correlation of 'avSTAR' to av margin of victory (2009).
- 46% correlation of 'avSTAR' to av defensive points/game.

Thanks for responding, I appreciate your interest...Tom

PapaIrish37 · Aug 18, 2010

Great stuff Tom. It certainly gives data to the subjective judgement many have had the last four years.

Imagine what our numbers would look like just for games in November the last two seasons. We certainly faded down the stretch both in 4th quarters but also late in the season. Hopefully the conditioning, speed at which they have worked for the last 9 months, the training table, etc., etc. will reverse that.

Most of all, as BK talked about today they have to "stop losing" (and not just on the field) to start winning. The attitude and discipline will hopefully help us get more with the more we have (with the way he is recruiting, we can hope for the most from the most soon).

GO IRISH!

Rivals average star ratings vs games won...

Easton Pa ND Fan

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ACamp1900

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IrishJayhawk

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Old Man Mike

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Easton Pa ND Fan

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Old Man Mike

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