Ranking 1 Loss Teams by best loss

[IRISH in MT]

1. Notre Dame (@ #1 Clemson)
2. TCU (@ #6 OK State)
3. Baylor (#7 Oklahoma at home)
4. Alabama (#22 Ole Miss at home)
5. Florida (@ #15 LSU ; Bama beat LSU)
6. Michigan State (@ Nebraska who is 5-6)
7. Oklahoma (@ Texas who is 4-6)
8. North Carolina (South Carolina who is 3-7 at home)

*Why is Oklahoma getting so much love lately?

**I think Notre Dame with their 2 point loss on the road in a monsoon + who has beat #16 Navy and #24 USC is a stronger resume than Alabama who lost at home and only beaten 1 currently ranked team in #15 LSU

***When said and done, there is a good chance that Notre Dame will have defeated 5 of 6 teams playing for their Conference Championships: Pac 12: USC vs. Stanford, Amercian: Navy vs. Temple, ACC: Clemson vs. Pitt(currently #2 behind UNC)

 

[Guest]

1. Notre Dame (@ #1 Clemson)
2. TCU (@ #6 OK State)
3. Baylor (#7 Oklahoma at home)
4. Alabama (#22 Ole Miss at home)
5. Florida (@ #15 LSU ; Bama beat LSU)
6. Michigan State (@ Nebraska who is 5-6)
7. Oklahoma (@ Texas who is 4-6)
8. North Carolina (South Carolina who is 3-7 at home)

*Why is Oklahoma getting so much love lately?

**I think Notre Dame with their 2 point loss on the road in a monsoon + who has beat #16 Navy and #24 USC is a stronger resume than Alabama who lost at home and only beaten 1 currently ranked team in #15 LSU

***When said and done, there is a good chance that Notre Dame will have defeated 5 of 6 teams playing for their Conference Championships: Pac 12: USC vs. Stanford, Amercian: Navy vs. Temple, ACC: Clemson vs. Pitt(currently #2 behind UNC)

I said in another thread that the Texas team OU played and the Texas team ND played are completely different. That should also factor in head to head considerations.

I think many of the metrics discussed are too 'flat' and don't take into account the changes that occur throughout the season. It seems like prevailing theory is to put a bunch of 'flat' metrics together hoping to come with the 'right' theoretical answer. I argue expanding the field and letting more teams play each other is a better option - on the field you can answer the question of nuance and eliminate certain types of bias or flaws in perception.

 

[Cackalacky]

1. Notre Dame (@ #1 Clemson)
2. TCU (@ #6 OK State)
3. Baylor (#7 Oklahoma at home)
4. Alabama (#22 Ole Miss at home)
5. Florida (@ #15 LSU ; Bama beat LSU)
6. Michigan State (@ Nebraska who is 5-6)
7. Oklahoma (@ Texas who is 4-6)
8. North Carolina (South Carolina who is 3-7 at home)

*Why is Oklahoma getting so much love lately?

**I think Notre Dame with their 2 point loss on the road in a monsoon + who has beat #16 Navy and #24 USC is a stronger resume than Alabama who lost at home and only beaten 1 currently ranked team in #15 LSU

***When said and done, there is a good chance that Notre Dame will have defeated 5 of 6 teams playing for their Conference Championships: Pac 12: USC vs. Stanford, Amercian: Navy vs. Temple, ACC: Clemson vs. Pitt(currently #2 behind UNC)

Re Alabama.... TTT was saying Alabama beat like seven teams in the top 40 of the FPI....that does not really jive with what you are saying ... Have all the SEC teams dropped out if the rankings?

It would be nice to have some sort of consistent database of our own here on IE to objectively compare these things. It would lead to a better discussion overall I think instead of claiming someone's argument is ridiculous.

There are several smart people here on the board. I think we could do it.

 

[Jackalope1977]

RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
1 Oklahoma, Big 12 9-1 10.4 - 1.6 50.6 50.9 4 27.0
2 Baylor, Big 12 8-1 10.1 - 1.9 30.9 15.1 18 24.8
3 Alabama, SEC 9-1 11.4 - 1.5 52.4 62.8 56 24.2
4 OSU, Big Ten 10-0 11.9 - 0.7 38.3 49.3 13 23.5
5 Clemson, ACC 10-0 12.5 - 0.5 54.2 65.6 49 21.8
6 TCU, Big 12 9-1 9.7 - 2.3 12.2 5.2 1 21.2
7 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 9-1 10.3 - 1.7 37.4 -- 28 20.9
8 USC, Pac-12 7-3 8.7 - 3.9 24.5 32.2 10 20.9
9 Ole Miss, SEC 7-3 8.3 - 3.8 33.0 4.9 7 20.4
10 LSU, SEC 7-2 8.1 - 2.9 26.5 0.0 8 19.4
11 Stanford, Pac-12 8-2 9.8 - 3.1 22.6 48.5 15 19.2
12 Tennessee, SEC 6-4 7.7 - 4.3 69.3 0.0 57 18.8
13 Oklahoma State, Big 12 10-0 10.7 - 1.3 12.0 28.8 2 18.2
14 Florida, SEC 9-1 10.9 - 2.1 19.3 32.3 43 17.9
15 UNC, ACC 9-1 10.6 - 2.4 13.9 33.3 11 17.4
16 FSU, ACC 8-2 9.4 - 2.6 38.4 0.0 66 17.1
17 Michigan, Big Ten 8-2 9.1 - 3.1 17.0 13.1 9 16.8
18 Georgia, SEC 7-3 8.4 - 3.6 45.4 0.0 39 16.0
19 UCLA, Pac-12 7-3 7.8 - 4.4 5.0 5.0 3 15.8
20 Miss St, SEC 7-3 7.9 - 4.1 18.0 0.0 5 15.4
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
21 Arkansas, SEC 6-4 7.4 - 4.6 47.0 0.0 38 15.4
22 Michigan State, Big Ten 9-1 10.1 - 2.1 9.8 9.8 20 15.2
23 Utah, Pac-12 8-2 9.6 - 2.7 33.8 10.7 50 14.7
24 Wisconsin, Big Ten 8-2 9.6 - 2.4 59.6 0.9 60 14.1
25 West Virginia, Big 12 5-4 7.5 - 4.5 52.1 0.0 83 13.8
26 Texas A&M, SEC 7-3 8.0 - 4.0 18.7 0.0 21 13.7
27 Cal, Pac-12 6-4 7.0 - 5.0 19.9 0.0 22 13.4
28 Oregon, Pac-12 7-3 8.3 - 3.8 27.7 3.6 62 13.1
29 Iowa, Big Ten 10-0 11.7 - 1.3 12.7 26.7 40 12.7
30 Georgia Tech, ACC 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 30.1 0.0 27 12.3
31 Auburn, SEC 5-5 6.2 - 5.8 22.5 0.0 70 11.8
32 Boise State, MW 7-3 9.2 - 3.5 57.8 48.4 89 10.7
33 VT, ACC 5-5 6.1 - 5.9 26.9 0.0 33 10.5
34 NC State, ACC 6-4 7.2 - 4.8 31.1 0.0 55 10.3
35 Texas Tech, Big 12 6-5 6.5 - 5.5 53.9 0.0 31 10.3
36 Washington, Pac-12 4-6 5.5 - 6.5 58.0 0.0 79 10.2
37 Houston, American 10-0 11.9 - 0.7 37.4 47.6 69 10.0
38 Pitt, ACC 7-3 8.3 - 3.7 39.1 1.1 58 9.7
39 Louisville, ACC 6-4 7.0 - 5.0 25.7 0.0 36 9.1
40 Toledo, MAC 9-1 9.9 - 1.5 51.6 23.0 64 8.7
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
41 Arizona State, Pac-12 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 17.6 0.0 30 8.6
42 Nebraska, Big Ten 5-6 5.5 - 6.5 48.8 0.0 34 8.5
43 Navy, American 8-1 10.3 - 2.0 17.8 24.1 78 8.5
44 Memphis, American 8-2 9.4 - 2.6 44.5 0.0 87 8.5
45 Penn State, Big Ten 7-3 7.6 - 4.4 7.9 0.2 12 8.4
46 W Kentucky, C-USA 8-2 10.0 - 2.7 38.0 45.0 84 8.1
47 LA Tech, C-USA 7-3 9.1 - 3.7 34.3 35.6 97 7.6
48 Bowling Green, MAC 8-3 9.4 - 3.6 48.7 56.3 85 7.4
49 Washington St, Pac-12 7-3 8.1 - 3.9 26.1 0.0 59 7.2
50 BYU, FBS Indep. 7-3 8.5 - 3.5 52.9 -- 100 7.2
51 Temple, American 8-2 9.6 - 3.1 14.3 23.4 67 6.4
52 Arizona, Pac-12 6-5 6.4 - 5.6 35.4 0.0 24 6.3
53 Kansas State, Big 12 3-6 5.0 - 7.0 24.4 0.0 80 6.2
54 Texas, Big 12 4-6 4.5 - 7.5 3.2 0.0 16 6.2
55 Appalachian St, Sun Belt 8-2 9.8 - 2.2 84.2 16.2 122 6.1
56 Missouri, SEC 5-5 5.4 - 6.6 4.3 0.0 6 6.0
57 Duke, ACC 6-4 7.3 - 4.7 39.0 0.0 71 5.8
58 South Carolina, SEC 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 14.3 0.0 68 5.4
59 Cincinnati, American 6-4 7.1 - 4.9 30.8 0.4 63 5.3
60 Miami (FL), ACC 6-4 6.6 - 5.4 9.6 0.0 23 5.1
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
61 Northwestern, Big Ten 8-2 8.7 - 3.3 9.0 0.0 29 4.9
62 W Michigan, MAC 6-4 6.8 - 5.3 6.1 6.1 37 4.4
63 Ga Southern, Sun Belt 7-2 9.0 - 3.0 12.6 16.9 96 4.2
64 Illinois, Big Ten 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 21.1 0.0 47 4.0
65 Minnesota, Big Ten 4-6 4.8 - 7.2 14.5 0.0 45 3.1
66 Utah State, MW 5-5 6.3 - 5.7 38.7 0.0 92 3.0
67 Marshall, C-USA 9-2 9.4 - 2.9 12.9 12.9 32 3.0
68 San Diego State, MW 7-3 9.0 - 4.0 26.8 40.5 102 2.6
69 Vanderbilt, SEC 4-6 4.4 - 7.6 2.5 0.0 14 2.5
70 N Illinois, MAC 7-3 8.4 - 4.0 13.8 14.7 88 2.2
71 Iowa State, Big 12 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 4.2 0.0 19 1.9
72 Kentucky, SEC 4-6 5.3 - 6.7 33.7 0.0 99 1.8
73 UVA, ACC 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.3 0.0 48 1.6
74 Southern Miss, C-USA 7-3 8.3 - 4.0 6.2 6.6 82 1.4
75 USF, American 6-4 7.4 - 4.9 23.2 4.6 94 1.4
76 Air Force, MW 7-3 8.0 - 4.3 4.4 9.0 61 1.2
77 Boston College, ACC 3-7 3.6 - 8.4 4.4 0.0 35 0.8
78 Arkansas State, Sun Belt 7-3 8.8 - 3.2 80.8 99.0 128 0.7
79 Colorado, Pac-12 4-7 4.3 - 8.7 1.9 0.0 17 -0.5
80 Mid Tennessee, C-USA 5-5 6.8 - 5.3 76.0 0.0 125 -0.7
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
81 Syracuse, ACC 3-7 3.7 - 8.3 8.1 0.0 51 -0.8
82 Cent Michigan, MAC 5-5 6.8 - 5.3 76.3 0.0 126 -0.8
83 Indiana, Big Ten 4-6 4.9 - 7.1 20.9 0.0 76 -0.9
84 Maryland, Big Ten 2-8 3.1 - 8.9 30.2 0.0 98 -1.4
85 ECU, American 4-6 5.2 - 6.8 31.6 0.0 103 -1.5
86 Purdue, Big Ten 2-8 2.6 - 9.4 4.7 0.0 52 -3.4
87 Wake Forest, ACC 3-7 3.3 - 8.7 0.9 0.0 26 -4.3
88 Rutgers, Big Ten 3-7 4.2 - 7.8 34.7 0.0 112 -5.2
89 Tulsa, American 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 15.0 0.0 90 -5.3
90 Ohio, MAC 7-4 7.2 - 4.8 21.9 0.0 53 -5.3
91 San Jose State, MW 4-6 4.9 - 7.1 11.3 0.0 86 -5.4
92 Colorado State, MW 5-5 6.2 - 5.8 34.7 0.0 115 -6.1
93 UConn, American 5-5 5.4 - 6.7 3.0 0.0 42 -6.4
94 Oregon State, Pac-12 2-8 2.2 - 9.8 0.7 0.0 25 -7.8
95 FIU, C-USA 5-6 5.2 - 6.8 15.4 0.0 44 -8.6
96 Akron, MAC 5-5 6.3 - 5.7 41.7 0.0 120 -8.9
97 Buffalo, MAC 5-5 6.1 - 5.9 28.8 0.0 118 -9.0
98 Troy, Sun Belt 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 28.7 0.0 117 -9.0
99 New Mexico, MW 6-4 6.8 - 5.4 1.8 2.1 104 -9.1
100 Nevada, MW 6-4 6.3 - 5.7 1.7 0.1 46 -9.2
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
101 UNLV, MW 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.6 0.0 108 -9.7
102 LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt 4-5 5.4 - 6.6 3.4 0.0 105 -10.2
103 Ball State, MAC 3-8 3.1 - 8.9 13.0 0.0 54 -10.9
104 FAU, C-USA 2-8 2.6 - 9.4 1.3 0.0 65 -11.3
105 UMass, MAC 2-8 3.1 - 8.9 26.7 0.0 119 -11.9
106 Tulane, American 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.2 0.0 116 -14.0
107 Rice, C-USA 4-6 5.2 - 6.8 34.7 0.0 127 -14.2
108 SMU, American 1-9 1.6 - 10.4 2.6 0.0 81 -14.3
109 Georgia State, Sun Belt 3-6 4.1 - 7.9 1.9 0.0 106 -14.6
110 Texas State, Sun Belt 2-7 3.2 - 8.8 3.1 0.0 111 -15.0
111 UTSA, C-USA 2-8 2.7 - 9.3 10.6 0.0 114 -15.7
112 Fresno State, MW 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 1.2 0.0 73 -15.8
113 Kent State, MAC 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 4.7 0.0 107 -15.8
114 UCF, American 0-10 0.3 - 11.7 2.8 0.0 93 -16.0
115 Kansas, Big 12 0-10 0.1 - 11.9 0.3 0.0 41 -16.0
116 Army, FBS Indep. 2-8 2.3 - 9.7 1.3 -- 75 -16.1
117 South Alabama, Sun Belt 5-4 5.5 - 6.5 0.1 0.0 77 -16.7
118 Wyoming, MW 1-10 1.4 - 10.6 39.7 0.0 121 -17.4
119 UL Monroe, Sun Belt 1-9 2.3 - 10.7 6.5 0.0 123 -17.8
120 Idaho, Sun Belt 3-7 3.5 - 8.5 0.9 0.0 74 -17.8
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
121 Hawaii, MW 2-9 3.0 - 10.0 19.4 0.0 124 -17.9
122 Old Dominion, C-USA 5-5 5.4 - 6.6 2.3 0.0 95 -18.2
123 New Mexico St, Sun Belt 2-7 2.7 - 9.3 0.7 0.0 110 -19.4
124 Miami (OH), MAC 2-9 2.2 - 9.8 21.0 0.0 113 -19.7
125 Charlotte, C-USA 2-8 2.3 - 9.7 1.2 0.0 91 -19.9
126 UTEP, C-USA 4-6 4.5 - 7.5 1.7 0.0 101 -20.2
127 E Michigan, MAC 1-10 1.1 - 10.9 6.4 0.0 72 -21.1
128 North Texas, C-USA 1-9 1.6 - 10.4 2.5 0.0 109 -21.7


T Town is right on the money with 7 although being in the SEC practically qualifies you.

 

[Guest]

Re Alabama.... TTT was saying Alabama beat like seven teams in the top 40 of the FPI....that does not really jive with what you are saying ... Have all the SEC teams dropped out if the rankings?

It would be nice to have some sort of consistent database of our own here on IE to objectively compare these things. It would lead to a better discussion overall I think instead of claiming someone's argument is ridiculous.

There are several smart people here on the board. I think we could do it.

Those rankings reflect wins against cupcake schedules early in the year. It keeps the conference inflated early on to promote a positive SEC bias until the end, when they start playing each other and losing. This has been discussed for years, and now other conferences are starting to do it.

 

[Cackalacky]

RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
1 Oklahoma, Big 12 9-1 10.4 - 1.6 50.6 50.9 4 27.0
2 Baylor, Big 12 8-1 10.1 - 1.9 30.9 15.1 18 24.8
3 Alabama, SEC 9-1 11.4 - 1.5 52.4 62.8 56 24.2
4 OSU, Big Ten 10-0 11.9 - 0.7 38.3 49.3 13 23.5
5 Clemson, ACC 10-0 12.5 - 0.5 54.2 65.6 49 21.8
6 TCU, Big 12 9-1 9.7 - 2.3 12.2 5.2 1 21.2
7 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 9-1 10.3 - 1.7 37.4 -- 28 20.9
8 USC, Pac-12 7-3 8.7 - 3.9 24.5 32.2 10 20.9
9 Ole Miss, SEC 7-3 8.3 - 3.8 33.0 4.9 7 20.4
10 LSU, SEC 7-2 8.1 - 2.9 26.5 0.0 8 19.4
11 Stanford, Pac-12 8-2 9.8 - 3.1 22.6 48.5 15 19.2
12 Tennessee, SEC 6-4 7.7 - 4.3 69.3 0.0 57 18.8
13 Oklahoma State, Big 12 10-0 10.7 - 1.3 12.0 28.8 2 18.2
14 Florida, SEC 9-1 10.9 - 2.1 19.3 32.3 43 17.9
15 UNC, ACC 9-1 10.6 - 2.4 13.9 33.3 11 17.4
16 FSU, ACC 8-2 9.4 - 2.6 38.4 0.0 66 17.1
17 Michigan, Big Ten 8-2 9.1 - 3.1 17.0 13.1 9 16.8
18 Georgia, SEC 7-3 8.4 - 3.6 45.4 0.0 39 16.0
19 UCLA, Pac-12 7-3 7.8 - 4.4 5.0 5.0 3 15.8
20 Miss St, SEC 7-3 7.9 - 4.1 18.0 0.0 5 15.4
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
21 Arkansas, SEC 6-4 7.4 - 4.6 47.0 0.0 38 15.4
22 Michigan State, Big Ten 9-1 10.1 - 2.1 9.8 9.8 20 15.2
23 Utah, Pac-12 8-2 9.6 - 2.7 33.8 10.7 50 14.7
24 Wisconsin, Big Ten 8-2 9.6 - 2.4 59.6 0.9 60 14.1
25 West Virginia, Big 12 5-4 7.5 - 4.5 52.1 0.0 83 13.8
26 Texas A&M, SEC 7-3 8.0 - 4.0 18.7 0.0 21 13.7
27 Cal, Pac-12 6-4 7.0 - 5.0 19.9 0.0 22 13.4
28 Oregon, Pac-12 7-3 8.3 - 3.8 27.7 3.6 62 13.1
29 Iowa, Big Ten 10-0 11.7 - 1.3 12.7 26.7 40 12.7
30 Georgia Tech, ACC 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 30.1 0.0 27 12.3
31 Auburn, SEC 5-5 6.2 - 5.8 22.5 0.0 70 11.8
32 Boise State, MW 7-3 9.2 - 3.5 57.8 48.4 89 10.7
33 VT, ACC 5-5 6.1 - 5.9 26.9 0.0 33 10.5
34 NC State, ACC 6-4 7.2 - 4.8 31.1 0.0 55 10.3
35 Texas Tech, Big 12 6-5 6.5 - 5.5 53.9 0.0 31 10.3
36 Washington, Pac-12 4-6 5.5 - 6.5 58.0 0.0 79 10.2
37 Houston, American 10-0 11.9 - 0.7 37.4 47.6 69 10.0
38 Pitt, ACC 7-3 8.3 - 3.7 39.1 1.1 58 9.7
39 Louisville, ACC 6-4 7.0 - 5.0 25.7 0.0 36 9.1
40 Toledo, MAC 9-1 9.9 - 1.5 51.6 23.0 64 8.7
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
41 Arizona State, Pac-12 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 17.6 0.0 30 8.6
42 Nebraska, Big Ten 5-6 5.5 - 6.5 48.8 0.0 34 8.5
43 Navy, American 8-1 10.3 - 2.0 17.8 24.1 78 8.5
44 Memphis, American 8-2 9.4 - 2.6 44.5 0.0 87 8.5
45 Penn State, Big Ten 7-3 7.6 - 4.4 7.9 0.2 12 8.4
46 W Kentucky, C-USA 8-2 10.0 - 2.7 38.0 45.0 84 8.1
47 LA Tech, C-USA 7-3 9.1 - 3.7 34.3 35.6 97 7.6
48 Bowling Green, MAC 8-3 9.4 - 3.6 48.7 56.3 85 7.4
49 Washington St, Pac-12 7-3 8.1 - 3.9 26.1 0.0 59 7.2
50 BYU, FBS Indep. 7-3 8.5 - 3.5 52.9 -- 100 7.2
51 Temple, American 8-2 9.6 - 3.1 14.3 23.4 67 6.4
52 Arizona, Pac-12 6-5 6.4 - 5.6 35.4 0.0 24 6.3
53 Kansas State, Big 12 3-6 5.0 - 7.0 24.4 0.0 80 6.2
54 Texas, Big 12 4-6 4.5 - 7.5 3.2 0.0 16 6.2
55 Appalachian St, Sun Belt 8-2 9.8 - 2.2 84.2 16.2 122 6.1
56 Missouri, SEC 5-5 5.4 - 6.6 4.3 0.0 6 6.0
57 Duke, ACC 6-4 7.3 - 4.7 39.0 0.0 71 5.8
58 South Carolina, SEC 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 14.3 0.0 68 5.4
59 Cincinnati, American 6-4 7.1 - 4.9 30.8 0.4 63 5.3
60 Miami (FL), ACC 6-4 6.6 - 5.4 9.6 0.0 23 5.1
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
61 Northwestern, Big Ten 8-2 8.7 - 3.3 9.0 0.0 29 4.9
62 W Michigan, MAC 6-4 6.8 - 5.3 6.1 6.1 37 4.4
63 Ga Southern, Sun Belt 7-2 9.0 - 3.0 12.6 16.9 96 4.2
64 Illinois, Big Ten 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 21.1 0.0 47 4.0
65 Minnesota, Big Ten 4-6 4.8 - 7.2 14.5 0.0 45 3.1
66 Utah State, MW 5-5 6.3 - 5.7 38.7 0.0 92 3.0
67 Marshall, C-USA 9-2 9.4 - 2.9 12.9 12.9 32 3.0
68 San Diego State, MW 7-3 9.0 - 4.0 26.8 40.5 102 2.6
69 Vanderbilt, SEC 4-6 4.4 - 7.6 2.5 0.0 14 2.5
70 N Illinois, MAC 7-3 8.4 - 4.0 13.8 14.7 88 2.2
71 Iowa State, Big 12 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 4.2 0.0 19 1.9
72 Kentucky, SEC 4-6 5.3 - 6.7 33.7 0.0 99 1.8
73 UVA, ACC 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.3 0.0 48 1.6
74 Southern Miss, C-USA 7-3 8.3 - 4.0 6.2 6.6 82 1.4
75 USF, American 6-4 7.4 - 4.9 23.2 4.6 94 1.4
76 Air Force, MW 7-3 8.0 - 4.3 4.4 9.0 61 1.2
77 Boston College, ACC 3-7 3.6 - 8.4 4.4 0.0 35 0.8
78 Arkansas State, Sun Belt 7-3 8.8 - 3.2 80.8 99.0 128 0.7
79 Colorado, Pac-12 4-7 4.3 - 8.7 1.9 0.0 17 -0.5
80 Mid Tennessee, C-USA 5-5 6.8 - 5.3 76.0 0.0 125 -0.7
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
81 Syracuse, ACC 3-7 3.7 - 8.3 8.1 0.0 51 -0.8
82 Cent Michigan, MAC 5-5 6.8 - 5.3 76.3 0.0 126 -0.8
83 Indiana, Big Ten 4-6 4.9 - 7.1 20.9 0.0 76 -0.9
84 Maryland, Big Ten 2-8 3.1 - 8.9 30.2 0.0 98 -1.4
85 ECU, American 4-6 5.2 - 6.8 31.6 0.0 103 -1.5
86 Purdue, Big Ten 2-8 2.6 - 9.4 4.7 0.0 52 -3.4
87 Wake Forest, ACC 3-7 3.3 - 8.7 0.9 0.0 26 -4.3
88 Rutgers, Big Ten 3-7 4.2 - 7.8 34.7 0.0 112 -5.2
89 Tulsa, American 5-5 5.9 - 6.1 15.0 0.0 90 -5.3
90 Ohio, MAC 7-4 7.2 - 4.8 21.9 0.0 53 -5.3
91 San Jose State, MW 4-6 4.9 - 7.1 11.3 0.0 86 -5.4
92 Colorado State, MW 5-5 6.2 - 5.8 34.7 0.0 115 -6.1
93 UConn, American 5-5 5.4 - 6.7 3.0 0.0 42 -6.4
94 Oregon State, Pac-12 2-8 2.2 - 9.8 0.7 0.0 25 -7.8
95 FIU, C-USA 5-6 5.2 - 6.8 15.4 0.0 44 -8.6
96 Akron, MAC 5-5 6.3 - 5.7 41.7 0.0 120 -8.9
97 Buffalo, MAC 5-5 6.1 - 5.9 28.8 0.0 118 -9.0
98 Troy, Sun Belt 3-7 4.1 - 7.9 28.7 0.0 117 -9.0
99 New Mexico, MW 6-4 6.8 - 5.4 1.8 2.1 104 -9.1
100 Nevada, MW 6-4 6.3 - 5.7 1.7 0.1 46 -9.2
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
101 UNLV, MW 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.6 0.0 108 -9.7
102 LA-Lafayette, Sun Belt 4-5 5.4 - 6.6 3.4 0.0 105 -10.2
103 Ball State, MAC 3-8 3.1 - 8.9 13.0 0.0 54 -10.9
104 FAU, C-USA 2-8 2.6 - 9.4 1.3 0.0 65 -11.3
105 UMass, MAC 2-8 3.1 - 8.9 26.7 0.0 119 -11.9
106 Tulane, American 3-7 3.8 - 8.2 14.2 0.0 116 -14.0
107 Rice, C-USA 4-6 5.2 - 6.8 34.7 0.0 127 -14.2
108 SMU, American 1-9 1.6 - 10.4 2.6 0.0 81 -14.3
109 Georgia State, Sun Belt 3-6 4.1 - 7.9 1.9 0.0 106 -14.6
110 Texas State, Sun Belt 2-7 3.2 - 8.8 3.1 0.0 111 -15.0
111 UTSA, C-USA 2-8 2.7 - 9.3 10.6 0.0 114 -15.7
112 Fresno State, MW 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 1.2 0.0 73 -15.8
113 Kent State, MAC 3-7 3.4 - 8.6 4.7 0.0 107 -15.8
114 UCF, American 0-10 0.3 - 11.7 2.8 0.0 93 -16.0
115 Kansas, Big 12 0-10 0.1 - 11.9 0.3 0.0 41 -16.0
116 Army, FBS Indep. 2-8 2.3 - 9.7 1.3 -- 75 -16.1
117 South Alabama, Sun Belt 5-4 5.5 - 6.5 0.1 0.0 77 -16.7
118 Wyoming, MW 1-10 1.4 - 10.6 39.7 0.0 121 -17.4
119 UL Monroe, Sun Belt 1-9 2.3 - 10.7 6.5 0.0 123 -17.8
120 Idaho, Sun Belt 3-7 3.5 - 8.5 0.9 0.0 74 -17.8
RK TEAM W-L PROJ W-L WIN OUT% CONF WIN% REM SOS RK FPI
121 Hawaii, MW 2-9 3.0 - 10.0 19.4 0.0 124 -17.9
122 Old Dominion, C-USA 5-5 5.4 - 6.6 2.3 0.0 95 -18.2
123 New Mexico St, Sun Belt 2-7 2.7 - 9.3 0.7 0.0 110 -19.4
124 Miami (OH), MAC 2-9 2.2 - 9.8 21.0 0.0 113 -19.7
125 Charlotte, C-USA 2-8 2.3 - 9.7 1.2 0.0 91 -19.9
126 UTEP, C-USA 4-6 4.5 - 7.5 1.7 0.0 101 -20.2
127 E Michigan, MAC 1-10 1.1 - 10.9 6.4 0.0 72 -21.1
128 North Texas, C-USA 1-9 1.6 - 10.4 2.5 0.0 109 -21.7


T Town is right on the money with 7 although being in the SEC practically qualifies you.

Yeah but that is FPI, my least favorite model. I don't find it very persuasive. I mean look at the top two teams. TCU is still in the top 10 lol.

Lsu is the only SEC team Alabama has played that is currently ranked in the top 25 Playoff Committee.

FEI and S&P show four opponents in top 25.

Why look at the Top 40? Top 25 is fine. Looking at the Top 25 also makes things a bit more even in comparison IMO.

 

[Cackalacky]

Those rankings reflect wins against cupcake schedules early in the year. It keeps the conference inflated early on to promote a positive SEC bias until the end, when they start playing each other and losing. This has been discussed for years, and now other conferences are starting to do it.

I am aware of the FPI and it's limitations. I reject the FPI on several grounds.

 

[Jackalope1977]

Yeah but that is FPI, my least favorite model. I don't find it very persuasive. I mean look at the top two teams. TCU is still in the top 10 lol.

Lsu is the only SEC team Alabama has played that is currently ranked in the top 25 Playoff Committee.

FEI and S&P show four opponents in top 25.

Why look at the Top 40? Top 25 is fine. Looking at the Top 25 also makes things a bit more even in comparison IMO.

Oh I agree completely. I thought we were just questioning whether Bama had wins against 7 teams in the top 40 of the FPI specifically.

 

[Cackalacky]

Oh I agree completely. I thought we were just questioning whether Bama had wins against 7 teams in the top 40 of the FPI specifically.

Yeah. Definitely. I was as I thought that sounded crazy but then I realized

1. It's the FPI
2. Top 40... why not Top 50? Haha.

Currently Alabama has beat only one team currently ranked by the committee.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Yeah but that is FPI, my least favorite model. I don't find it very persuasive. I mean look at the top two teams. TCU is still in the top 10 lol.

Lsu is the only SEC team Alabama has played that is currently ranked in the top 25 Playoff Committee.

FEI and S&P show four opponents in top 25.

Why look at the Top 40? Top 25 is fine. Looking at the Top 25 also makes things a bit more even in comparison IMO.

I don't care for the FPI either. Bama has actually beaten two teams in the CFP rankings - LSU and Wisconsin. We also just beat Miss St who fell out due to the loss. As far as opponents win/loss records SIAP this:

1. Clemson-62 wins-58 losses Have 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

2. Ohio St-62-59 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

3. Alabama-75-44 Only has 1 team (ULM) with a losing record on their schedule.

4. Ok St-61-57 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

5. ND-66-53 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

6. Iowa-57-64 Has 7 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

7. Ok-64-64 Has 4 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

8. Fl-59-59 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

9. Mich St-66-55 Has 4 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

10.Baylor-59-60 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

11.TCU-57-61 Has 7 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

12.No Caro-59-61 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

While I don't really know if any of that info really matters, It is pretty telling that a team such as Clemson will play something like 5 teams with three wins or less. And the sixth team is Wofford who checks in at a robust 4-6 currently.

I think both Alabama and Notre Dame can easily win the SOS argument if it comes to that as a defining matrix.

 

[Cackalacky]

I don't care for the FPI either. Bama has actually beaten two teams in the CFP rankings - LSU and Wisconsin. We also just beat Miss St who fell out due to the loss. As far as opponents win/loss records SIAP this:

1. Clemson-62 wins-58 losses Have 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

2. Ohio St-62-59 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

3. Alabama-75-44 Only has 1 team (ULM) with a losing record on their schedule.

4. Ok St-61-57 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

5. ND-66-53 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

6. Iowa-57-64 Has 7 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

7. Ok-64-64 Has 4 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

8. Fl-59-59 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

9. Mich St-66-55 Has 4 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

10.Baylor-59-60 Has 6 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

11.TCU-57-61 Has 7 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

12.No Caro-59-61 Has 5 teams with a losing record on their schedule.

While I don't really know if any of that info really matters, It is pretty telling that a team such as Clemson will play something like 5 teams with three wins or less. And the sixth team is Wofford who checks in at a robust 4-6 currently.

I think both Alabama and Notre Dame can easily win the SOS argument if it comes to that as a defining matrix.

I forgot Wisconsin. Good pull. Let's just take away Charleston Southerns 9-1 record and we get 66-43. That's a bit more accurate IMO but is still like you said.

It definitely matters. I am trying to make sense of some of the claims all over ESPN and elsewhere.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I said in another thread that the Texas team OU played and the Texas team ND played are completely different. That should also factor in head to head considerations.

I think many of the metrics discussed are too 'flat' and don't take into account the changes that occur throughout the season. It seems like prevailing theory is to put a bunch of 'flat' metrics together hoping to come with the 'right' theoretical answer. I argue expanding the field and letting more teams play each other is a better option - on the field you can answer the question of nuance and eliminate certain types of bias or flaws in perception.

Didn't the "completely different" Texas team that OU lost to get beat 24-0 by Iowa State two weeks later? How completely different can they be?

 

[jspags10pg]

How about Navy??? They've only lost to us and every other game they've won by at least 2 possessions. They probably have the second best loss of all the one loss teams behind only us.

 

[DogDaysIrish]

How about Navy??? They've only lost to us and every other game they've won by at least 2 possessions. They probably have the second best loss of all the one loss teams behind only us.

Hell of a point.

 

[GoIrish41]

How about Navy??? They've only lost to us and every other game they've won by at least 2 possessions. They probably have the second best loss of all the one loss teams behind only us.

Their schedule has to be better than Baylor's. Good point.

 

[IRISH in MT]

How about Navy??? They've only lost to us and every other game they've won by at least 2 possessions. They probably have the second best loss of all the one loss teams behind only us.

You are right! I completely overlooked 1 loss Navy. I guess I was prejudice to the Power 5 Conferences. American is a tough conference this year with Navy, Temple, Memphis, and Houston.

 

[RDU Irish]

I would put Florida at #2, Losing AT LSU is a tougher draw than any of the Big 12 folks or anyone dropping one at home. Then probably Navy losing to us followed by TCU (who will probably fall out of the conversation this weekend).