And why on earth would I count their JUCO transfers as half a player? I was under the impression we stopped counting people as fractions in 1865 with the passing of the 13th Amendment.
Andy,
Class signing numbers for determining oversigning are one thing, but, IMO a couple of factors need to be taken into consideration prior to comparisions to schools like ND and Big Ten schools among others.
- How many of the signees actually enroll?
- JUCOs
Signee Numbers
South Carolina is a good example. They have signed ninety-seven players in the past four years (129 in five years).
ND has signed eighty-nine (112 in five yrs).
Enrollee Numbers
South Carolina has enrolled eighty-seven in four years.
---Six from the Class of 2014 did not qualify. One signee went to JUCO in 2012 and then again did not qualify in 2014, so he's counted twice in those numbers.
ND has enrolled eighty-seven. (I am assuming all of both schools classes will enroll, which in Carolina's case may or may not happen. So the Gamecock's enrollee numbers may be equal or less than ND's.
JUCOs/Community College
To account for what I call "player churn" I consider how many players come from the JUCO/Community College ranks. ND does not accept JUCOs. South Carolina does. Spurrier has had to sign more players (30 in 2015) to get to eighty-five this year and to dip into the JUCO ranks to get players with experience and can contribute immediately. But they play only two years the freeing up scholarships. They signed five JUCO players in the Class of 2015 and one in the Class of 2014.But that, of course, increases his signee/enrollee numbers as these players graduate.
Should Carolina have signed JUCO players in the 2011 and 2012 classes, they would have graduated by 2015 barring any attrition.
At this point, comparing both schools' numbers is fair - both are at eighty-seven enrollees over four years.
Attrition
After that, you have attrition for whatever reason - transfers, academic disqualification, quitting football, dismissals, early entrants to the NFL, etc.
South Carolina has a higher attrition rate than ND. A good indirect measurement of that is the federal graduation rate, which is more accurate for this purpose. South Carolina's has been in the low 50s. ND's has been in the 80s.
So, considering enrollment data, JUCO players, attrition rates, you would expect South Carolina to sign more to get to the same place Notre Dame is. Finally, since Carolina is chasing eighty-five due to higher attrition, signing classes of thirty is not necessarily forcing underclassment to transfer like some other SEC schools do.