Ohio State False Narrative

[NWIrish]

I find it interesting how suddenly people who (justifiably) anticipated that OSU would get crushed by Clemson are now thinking that they are on the same level as Clemson and Alabama. 4 of those touchdown passes, if replayed 10 times, would have been intercepted or incomplete 8-9 times. Additionally, Clemson's D (and rush d in particular) was crippled with Turner out the 1st half and Davis and Skalski out the 2nd, as well as three other starters out for most of the game. Ohio State was playing a skeleton crew and got lucky. On the flipside, Clemson lost their playcaller in GAME WEEK!

Playing 10 games w/ everyone healthy, Alabama and Clemson are a wash and Notre Dame beats OSU 6 or 7 out of 10 times. Clemson and Bama beat OSU 8-9 times out of 10.

Alabama may have beaten us by less than OSU beat Clemson, but nothing they did was lucky. None of their passes could have easily gone the other way. Likewise when we beat Clemson the 1st time (aside from that McKinley catch) and when Clemson beat us. OSU's tight ends didn't have separation on 2 of those TDs. They got lucky. One cover man was in front of the TE and just wiffed on the INT and Fields threw into double coverage on the other and got away with it. OSUs WRs didn't have separation on the 2 bomb TDs. It was a coin flip both times.

This shows us: 1), even when you are outclassed, you can still win and win big if you at least put yourself in a position to get lucky. Had Clemson intercepted those 4 passes (not to mention 2-3 other bombs that had very little or no separation), which just as easily could have happened, OSU loses by 40+. But had OSU played it safe, they lose by 20 every time. So, OSU had to take the chance regardless and it worked out for them this time. Maybe it'll work out again against Bama. But the fact is that, unless they throw up 50/50 luck bombs, they would never beat either team assuming equal team health. 2). when Notre Dame or anyone else plays safe against a superior team, they literally have an almost 0% chance of winning.

 

[NWIrish]

...and this dovetails with another point, you have to have a QB who can make the throws to get lucky against a superior team. That's why we'd beat Ole Miss and Florida almost every time (and OSU most of the time) but they would stand a better chance of beating Alabama or healthy Clemson. There are only 2 teams that are superior but the way we play w/ the QB we have, losing to them is like a math calculation, not just a probability.

 

[NWIrish]

I'd bet almost anything that unless OSU completes at least 3 50/50 balls of at least 40 yards and has 1 INT or less, they lose to Bama by 21+. Bama doesn't have to complete a single 50/50 ball to win.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

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[NorthDakota]

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[NWIrish]

So, you think that OSU beating Clemson completing 4 lucky TD throws against a completely depleted Clemson defense with Clemson suddenly losing their offensive playcaller shows they are on Clemson's level? Do you think OSU is superior to ND?

 

[Irishize]

You failed to mention one of the keys to tOSU’s dominance in that game. Clemson’s OL is trash when playing the likes of Bama or tOSU. Trevor Lawrence can only do so much against elite front 7s. He was good enough to be the difference in the second ND game. Look what ND did to them in the first matchup w/ a one-dimensional QB.

What made 2020 harder to ascertain than normal years was all the teams playing almost exclusively their conference partners. With the hindsight we now have, I believe the ACC was a bit weaker than usual overall but Clemson also wasn’t anything like their previous teams other than Lawrence, Etienne & Rodgers. That OL is was their Achilles Heel and if it didn’t get exposed vs tOSU, it would’ve been by Bama.

Once tOSU was able to dominate that Tiger OL it put the onus on the Clemson defense to keep the score close. Remind you of anything? Not saying the loss of Skalski & Turner didn’t hurt but w/ the offense unable to score, it put the defense on their heels.

 

[dad4aa]

OSU almost lost to IU and was possibly going to lost to NW had NW not had three turnovers in their own end of the field. OSU is definitely a tier below Alabama and Clemson.

 

[phillyirish]

I find it interesting how suddenly people who (justifiably) anticipated that OSU would get crushed by Clemson are now thinking that they are on the same level as Clemson and Alabama. 4 of those touchdown passes, if replayed 10 times, would have been intercepted or incomplete 8-9 times. Additionally, Clemson's D (and rush d in particular) was crippled with Turner out the 1st half and Davis and Skalski out the 2nd, as well as three other starters out for most of the game. Ohio State was playing a skeleton crew and got lucky. On the flipside, Clemson lost their playcaller in GAME WEEK!

Playing 10 games w/ everyone healthy, Alabama and Clemson are a wash and Notre Dame beats OSU 6 or 7 out of 10 times. Clemson and Bama beat OSU 8-9 times out of 10.

You act like OSU best Clemson by 1 and not 21; and that 21 point margin was achieved by half time so whoever was out the second half didn’t matter much as the game slowed down considerably. OSU clearly is in the top tier of college football, they have 2 titles in the last 20 years; we have none in the past 30.

 

[NorthDakota]

So, you think that OSU beating Clemson completing 4 lucky TD throws against a completely depleted Clemson defense with Clemson suddenly losing their offensive playcaller shows they are on Clemson's level? Do you think OSU is superior to ND?

OSU is better equipped for big matchups than ND is right now.

They have:
A. An elite QB
B. Quality receivers stretching the field
C. What appears to be a good O-line.
D. An adequate defense.

People talk about long completions like they are lucky and I disagree with that. They are lower percentage plays but with good players, they are worthwhile ventures. Hell Notre Dame really doesn't have elite players at those positions and I still think we should do more of that.

If Ohio State and Clemson played 10 times at full strength...no injuries or suspensions...I would guess Ohio State wins 6, maybe 7 this year. Pretty tough sledding for Clemson because their offensive line wasn't very good but Trevor Lawrence alone probably superman's them to a few wins.

There is one clear thing, ND's offense simply needs to become more explosive. I'm a big fan of ball control and all that, but it's pretty clear that in modern football, you arent going to win these games unless you make the defense defend all three levels.

It appears the big programs understand that and are capable of doing it. Time for ND to join the rest and do it too. In Buchner We Trust.

 

[MNIrishman]

You failed to mention one of the keys to tOSU’s dominance in that game. Clemson’s OL is trash when playing the likes of Bama or tOSU. Trevor Lawrence can only do so much against elite front 7s. He was good enough to be the difference in the second ND game. Look what ND did to them in the first matchup w/ a one-dimensional QB.

What made 2020 harder to ascertain than normal years was all the teams playing almost exclusively their conference partners. With the hindsight we now have, I believe the ACC was a bit weaker than usual overall but Clemson also wasn’t anything like their previous teams other than Lawrence, Etienne & Rodgers. That OL is was their Achilles Heel and if it didn’t get exposed vs tOSU, it would’ve been by Bama.

Once tOSU was able to dominate that Tiger OL it put the onus on the Clemson defense to keep the score close. Remind you of anything? Not saying the loss of Skalski & Turner didn’t hurt but w/ the offense unable to score, it put the defense on their heels.

Trevor Lawrence barely made any difference at all. They scored 33 points in four quarters with him out vs 34 points in four quarters with him in. I'm tired of this lazy, easily debunked narrative.

The difference in the games was that we lost our all-world center, Ian Book played worse, and they got back several defensive players. That took us from 45 points to 10. That's a game-making difference, not pretty boy's single bonus point.

 

[Sea Turtle]

This is just trying to rationalize Ohio State crushing the team that crushed us.

I've never seen Lawrence hit like that. Over and over on his ass. His cool breeze facial expression turned into pure befuddlement and outright pain.

Those bombs were perfectly placed dimes that landed in the receivers chests in stride. Those weren't 50/50 balls. That's just what it looks like to have an excellent QB and receivers.

The OSU running backs were gashing Clemson for 6-8 yards a carry up the gut.

The OSU secondary outright dropped a couple of picks that would have made it even more lopsided.

OSU would beat us very badly.

 

[ThePiombino]

Oh good. Another OSU thread. Must have accidentally logged onto 11W...

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[Wingman Ray]

Oh wow! Are you guys really comparing ND to OSU?

What part in NDs recruiting the last ten years would make you think ND is on par with the likes of Bama, Clemson, or OSU? Do you believe that all of a sudden all of NDs 3 and 4 stars are going to divinely morph into 5 stars like those three teams have?

Ive read the Bible many times and I dont recall God coming to earth in flesh to save ND football, then or now.

ND is a great university. It is a good football team. It wins more than most programs.

It isnt a great football team. It loses against the great programs 95% of the time like all other teams do.

Just blows my mind that people expect ND to be on par with the elite teams when they arent anywhere similar in academic sense...you know, what universities are actually supposed to be about?

Love your team for what they are, not what they are not. If you want to love for NCs, cheer on another team.

 

[NWIrish]

You failed to mention one of the keys to tOSU’s dominance in that game. Clemson’s OL is trash when playing the likes of Bama or tOSU.

I don't think Clemson's OL performance against OSU was a reasonable example. They aren't a great unit but having their playcaller suddenly nixed is probably more impactful than losing Lawrence. OSU was not overwhelming Clemson's line. Clemson's whole offense just looked confused all game.

 

[NWIrish]

You act like OSU best Clemson by 1 and not 21; and that 21 point margin was achieved by half time so whoever was out the second half didn’t matter much as the game slowed down considerably.

They won by 21 but normal odds would dictate out of those 4 lucky touchdowns, on average, only 1 or 2 should have happened. That's a 14-21 point swing on average (and 28+ if Clemson was just as lucky as OSU and INT'd all 4, as just as easily could have happened). When you combine that with probably a 21 point swing on offense from having your long-time playcaller and Lawrence-guru zapped by Covid restriction in the 11th hour, I think Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia, Cincinnati and a host of other teams could have beaten Clemson by 21 under those same conditions. Fact remains, normal odds and Clemson healthy, OSU doesn't come close to winning that game.

 

[GATTACA!]

They won by 21 but normal odds would dictate out of those 4 lucky touchdowns, on average, only 1 or 2 should have happened. That's a 14-21 point swing on average (and 28+ if Clemson was just as lucky as OSU and INT'd all 4, as just as easily could have happened). When you combine that with probably a 21 point swing on offense from having your long-time playcaller and Lawrence-guru zapped by Covid restriction in the 11th hour, I think Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia, Cincinnati and a host of other teams could have beaten Clemson by 21 under those same conditions. Fact remains, normal odds and Clemson healthy, OSU doesn't come close to winning that game.

Why do you keep calling them lucky TDs? They were perfect strikes and there was no indication that Clemson had any ability to stop OSU even if they hadn't completed those passes. They were moving through Clemson like a hot knife through butter.

Did you actually watch the game? It was a thorough ass kicking.

 

[NWIrish]

They have:
A. An elite QB
B. Quality receivers stretching the field
C. What appears to be a good O-line.
D. An adequate defense.

People talk about long completions like they are lucky and I disagree with that.

Totally agree, long completions in general aren't "lucky". The 2 that Fields completed for TDs were. Great throw, in stride, but there was no separation and they were true 50/50 balls against top shelf cover guys (in one case in double coverage). More than half the time, both those balls get tipped or INTd. That's different from the Fields long ball to the 10 (not a TD) where there was legit separation. That was a great read and a high percentage pass. No chance for INT.

As for Fields being "elite", three games this year his performance loses to even 2nd/3rd tier like Florida, Iowa State, etc. OSU's OL looked good THIS game, against a really beat up Clemson D and still, take away those lucky strikes and they don't score 30.

 

[Irishnuke]

OSU almost lost to IU and was possibly going to lost to NW had NW not had three turnovers in their own end of the field. OSU is definitely a tier below Alabama and Clemson.

I mean, they just f'ing manhandled Clemson.

 

[NWIrish]

Oh wow! Are you guys really comparing ND to OSU?

What part in NDs recruiting the last ten years would make you think ND is on par with the likes of Bama, Clemson, or OSU?

I agree, ND is NOT on par with Bama or Clemson. But, OSU has only 2 units that are superior to ND - CBs and WRs. NDs OL, DL, LBs, Safeties and Tight ends are all better and RB is a wash. QB is harder than people would think. Fields is great when he's on and not confused...and mediocre at best when he's not. This past game was the first time he played well against a really good D. The first and only time. And, I just don't think you can call Clemson down SEVEN starters at one point a really good D. And, if he doesn't complete all 4 of those 50/50 or less balls, no one is saying he even had a good game against that ravaged D. Meanwhile, I think Book playing normal Book game and all other units performing average beats OSUs average more than 50% of the time.

 

[NWIrish]

I just don't see why anyone is acting like that Clemson team was really Clemson. I mean, they were down Lawrence and 2 good D starters against us and they weren't really Clemson. They were down SEVEN d starters at one point and without their dang playcaller (probably the worst loss you could have that close to gametime). That isn't Clemson. The talent available for Clemson in that game was more like UNC or less.

 

[NWIrish]

Funniest thing is that, barring Fields getting lucky again, this whole narrative will be over in 6 days when Bama obliterates OSU. 30+ points. Then it'll be about how Bama is the lone giant. But a healthy Clemson is just as good, if not better, which is what everyone thought up until the OSU game. Crazy how one injury-ravaged and unlucky performance can change everyone's attitude about Clemson and OSU

 

[NorthDakota]

I agree, ND is NOT on par with Bama or Clemson. But, OSU has only 2 units that are superior to ND - CBs and WRs. NDs OL, DL, LBs, Safeties and Tight ends are all better and RB is a wash. QB is harder than people would think. Fields is great when he's on and not confused...and mediocre at best when he's not. This past game was the first time he played well against a really good D. The first and only time. And, I just don't think you can call Clemson down SEVEN starters at one point a really good D. And, if he doesn't complete all 4 of those 50/50 or less balls, no one is saying he even had a good game against that ravaged D. Meanwhile, I think Book playing normal Book game and all other units performing average beats OSUs average more than 50% of the time.

This post gave it away. I'm not an elite football mind by any stretch but comparing Justin Fields and Ian Book is not "hard." One of them is a superstar who can be inconsistent and the other is Ian Book.

Margin for error in these games is very small. I dont dispute that Clemson may have been in a bit of a bind, but ND needed a 90 yard drive to end the game to get to 33 points and that includes a defensive touchdown.

OSU on the other hand, did whatever they wanted. This isn't very complicated

 

[NWIrish]

comparing Justin Fields and Ian Book is not "hard." One of them is a superstar who can be inconsistent and the other is Ian Book.

OSU on the other hand, did whatever they wanted. This isn't very complicated

22/28 for 385 and 6 TDS and 1 INT vs 19/28 for 285 and 3 TDS, 2 INTs is a totally different story. The latter is NOT doing "whatever they wanted". In fact, it would have yielded the following narrative: "Is Justin Fields really NFL ready after poor performance against a skeleton crew Clemson defense". Funny how completing 4 out of 4 50/50 balls can be the diff between 2nd overall pick and 2nd round pick. On the flipside, there were ZERO passes that Bama completed against us that were just as likely INTs and TDs. Zero that Clemson completed against OSU.

Fields a superstar? 12/27 for 114 and 2 INTs against NW and 18/30 for 3 INTs against Indiana, the only even decent D's he played all year, both of which probably better than what Clemson had available in that game. ND makes him look awful 6 out of 10 games. (One correction to be fair, he played decent against a good Wiscy D last year - 299/3TDs/0INTs)

 

[GATTACA!]

22/28 for 385 and 6 TDS and 1 INT vs 19/28 for 285 and 3 TDS, 2 INTs is a totally different story. The latter is NOT doing "whatever they wanted". In fact, it would have yielded the following narrative: "Is Justin Fields really NFL ready after poor performance against a skeleton crew Clemson defense". Funny how completing 4 out of 4 50/50 balls can be the diff between 2nd overall pick and 2nd round pick. On the flipside, there were ZERO passes that Bama completed against us that were just as likely INTs and TDs. Zero that Clemson completed against OSU.

Fields a superstar? 12/27 for 114 and 2 INTs against NW and 18/30 for 3 INTs against Indiana, the only even decent D's he played all year, both of which probably better than what Clemson had available in that game. ND makes him look awful 6 out of 10 games. (One correction to be fair, he played decent against a good Wiscy D last year - 299/3TDs/0INTs)

Yes lmao if he wouldn't have completed those 4th down bombs those would have been his stats.......oh wait those weren't on 4th down and those drives would have continued and it's just as likely that he caps all of them with TDs anyways as it is in your fantasy world were he doesn't attempt another pass.

Which is all besides the point anyways because the passes did happen and they were all precise strikes for TDs. We all watched it happen and Fields looked better than Lawrence frankly, and this is coming from someone that thought Fields was overrated coming into the game.

These posts are reading like some vintage pants on head Kool shit where he would pick an absurd position and then dig his heels in in the face of the entire board telling him he was an idiot.

 

[NorthDakota]

22/28 for 385 and 6 TDS and 1 INT vs 19/28 for 285 and 3 TDS, 2 INTs is a totally different story. The latter is NOT doing "whatever they wanted". In fact, it would have yielded the following narrative: "Is Justin Fields really NFL ready after poor performance against a skeleton crew Clemson defense". Funny how completing 4 out of 4 50/50 balls can be the diff between 2nd overall pick and 2nd round pick. On the flipside, there were ZERO passes that Bama completed against us that were just as likely INTs and TDs. Zero that Clemson completed against OSU.

Fields a superstar? 12/27 for 114 and 2 INTs against NW and 18/30 for 3 INTs against Indiana, the only even decent D's he played all year, both of which probably better than what Clemson had available in that game. ND makes him look awful 6 out of 10 games. (One correction to be fair, he played decent against a good Wiscy D last year - 299/3TDs/0INTs)

This is absurd.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

This is absurd.

If anyone doesnt care to read through the entire thread, heres a perfect 3 word summary of it.


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[Sea Turtle]

OSU leading the way for the midwest. Kelly and staff needs to watch how they put a team together. I don't know if Kelly and Day are friendly but maybe Kelly can pick his brain a bit.

 

[phork]

All I saw was OSU WRs running away from Clemson corners and passes dropping into their hands as they strolled into the end zone. Any argument that Fields is not a stud is just ridiculous. Plus the fact he threw some of those 6 TDs with more than likely broken ribs.

 

[NWIrish]

I'd bet almost anything that unless OSU completes at least 3 50/50 balls of at least 40 yards and has 1 INT or less, they lose to Bama by 21+. Bama doesn't have to complete a single 50/50 ball to win.

Ahem...as I said. Zero deep 50/50 balls completed for either team. Zero intercepted. OSU loses by 28.

OSU 348 yards of offense. ND 375. OSU gives up 623 yards of offense. We gave up 430. Healthy Clemson was the only team that could compete with Bama with average luck on both sides. We were better than OSU before they played Clemson and we still are. Fields pulling throws out of his ass and Clemson losing their OC and half their team didn't change that.

We are close. Third best team this year. Next year, Bama and Clemson are depending on new starter QBs. OSU won't be on our level with what they lose. They drop 2 games minimum. We are the only top team with a known quality entity at QB next year.