Nov 3 | Northwestern

[Irish#1]

Huh? If they go 11-1 in 2015 or last year, they are more than likely in.

Alabama won the NC last year without playing in their conference championship.

Being in a conference isn't the end all be all. SOS matters, and, unfortunately, this year's SOS took a big hit with fUSC and FSU falling flat on their faces this season. Combine that with Stanford and VT, though both solid wins at the time (Stanford top 10, VT ranked road win), they've fallen off since as well.

But the bolded is a terrible hot take.

Most years, I'll take our 12 against anyone's 12 or 13.

I don't think he's far off. Bama was able to stay in the top four because of their recent pedigree and they lost to another SEC team. ND doesn't have that to fall back on. A lot of teams will have to get their second loss for a 1 loss Irish to get in and given the standings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2 loss LSU team ahead of a 1 loss ND squad.

 

[BabyIrish]

Huh? If they go 11-1 in 2015 or last year, they are more than likely in.

Alabama won the NC last year without playing in their conference championship.

Being in a conference isn't the end all be all. SOS matters, and, unfortunately, this year's SOS took a big hit with fUSC and FSU falling flat on their faces this season. Combine that with Stanford and VT, though both solid wins at the time (Stanford top 10, VT ranked road win), they've fallen off since as well.

But the bolded is a terrible hot take.

Most years, I'll take our 12 against anyone's 12 or 13.

No we wouldn’t have gotten in if we had beaten Stanford in the finale. The top 4 all won ahead of us

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

FWIW, The Athletic's projection system (based on FEI) give Notre Dame a higher percentage chance of going undefeated (43.8%) vs. getting into the playoff (41.5%). In other words, their system sees a greater chance that undefeated ND gets left out than a one-loss ND gets in.

It's a tough thing to project, however, since ND is not in a conference and it's a total unknown how the committee would evaluate that against conference champions.

It is troubling that the toughest parts of ND's schedule are behind them and for most contenders the toughest part of the schedule is still in front of them.

 

[Dizzyphil]

FEI has us as 6 point winners, Sagarin has us as 11 point winners, and Bill C has us as 13 point winners...FYI

Dizzyphil has the Irish as 24 point winners......

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

No we wouldn’t have gotten in if we had beaten Stanford in the finale. The top 4 all won ahead of us

The CFP rankings aren't static like the AP poll or BCS was. If we beat Stanford on the road, many experts predicted we would have jumped Oklahoma. Remember in 2015, they still didn't have a conference championship in the Big 12.

Would have been a big time debate, but many liked our odds in '15 over the Sooners.

Again, further helps my point that you don't need a conference championship, as Oklahoma also got in in '15 without one, and so did pOSU in 2016.

 

[BabyIrish]

The CFP rankings aren't static like the AP poll or BCS was. If we beat Stanford on the road, many experts predicted we would have jumped Oklahoma. Remember in 2015, they still didn't have a conference championship in the Big 12.

Would have been a big time debate, but many liked our odds in '15 over the Sooners.

Again, further helps my point that you don't need a conference championship, as Oklahoma also got in in '15 without one, and so did pOSU in 2016.

As far as I remember, the experts said we had to throttle Stanford and OU had to win a close one for us to have a chance at passing them, and the outcomes had we won and held on that last drive, were the complete opposite. We wouldn’t have jumped OU.
Even though OU didn’t win a championship game they did win their conference and were conference champs which is different than us as independents.

 

[TomHaverford]

you guys are freaking out over nothing. Northwestern isn't the kind of team that can get up for two big games in a row. ND rolls.

 

[ulukinatme]

you guys are freaking out over nothing. Northwestern isn't the kind of team that can get up for two big games in a row. ND rolls.

There's history here. Teams play like shit the week after Navy. You prepare all week for the Triple Option, your knees are still sore, and Navy never quits. Northwestern may be overconfident, but this is a classic trap game.

 

[koonja]

you guys are freaking out over nothing. Northwestern isn't the kind of team that can get up for two big games in a row. ND rolls.

If we lose this game Tom needs to be banned.








If we win this game Tom needs to be banned.

 

[ND88]

you guys are freaking out over nothing. Northwestern isn't the kind of team that can get up for two big games in a row. ND rolls.

Wisconsin is not a big game. It’s not even a big win. And outside of inflated rankings, it hasn’t been all season.

 

[jspags10pg]

If we lose this game Tom needs to be banned.








If we win this game Tom needs to be banned.

Gonna end in a tie. Lightning in OT. Game ends. Tom stays. Thanks Koon.

 

[pumpdog20]

This team is different.

This team is ready for prime time.

 

[Crazy Balki]

There's history here. Teams play like shit the week after Navy. You prepare all week for the Triple Option, your knees are still sore, and Navy never quits. Northwestern may be overconfident, but this is a classic trap game.

This season, teams are 5-1 after playing Navy. In addition, there were two cases in which a team went on to upset a top 20 team the week after playing Navy; Those being Temple over #20 Cincinnati 24-17 and Houston over #16 South Florida 57-36.

ND has no excuse this year. Pretty much all teams have been able to shake the Navy-hangover, follow suit.

 

[Butchie]

What?

What?

I think this is the most likely game to lose out of the last four. The OL better be prepared to take another step forward or this could be a long night. Need 4q of defense to survive this. NW isn't a worldbeater, but they will be at home, at night and playing with nothing to lose. The team handled VT, but there is more pressure here.

I don't understand this position. The Orange are clearly the roughest game outside of the rivalry component USC brings. NW will look something like Ball State 1st half & Va Tech. 2nd half. They come out scrappy & fade late. They are one dimensional with little run game & ND has a solid 'D'. That makes for a long day at the office when you're one dimensional against a great 'D'.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

you guys are freaking out over nothing. Northwestern isn't the kind of team that can get up for two big games in a row. ND rolls.

Remind me how Michigan did at North Western this year? Thank you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Irish#1]

This team is different.

This team is ready for prime time.

This, I’ve said it before this isn’t a trap game. VT was a trap game and the team was ready. We are on the road again so they will be focused. If we were at home with distractions and everyone telling the team how great they are I would be more inclined to see it as a trap game.

 

[TomHaverford]

Wisconsin is not a big game. It’s not even a big win. And outside of inflated rankings, it hasn’t been all season.

Wisconsin is a huge game for Northwestern. It's one of the biggest wins they've had in years as it's an important divisional win that puts NW in the legitimate hunt to win the B1G West. A division that Wisconsin has dominated virtually every single year. With that win, NW are right in the thick of that race now if not the outright leaders.

They just shot their wad. They aren't equipped to turn around and play ND and get up again. That's not who they are.

 

[Circa]

What Is absolutely Hilarious to me and our forever predicament. People, those whom haven't a clue about real fandom are now stating what we have stated for a very long time. The "Elite" are everyone's Superbowl. Bama's, (I could agree If they played anyone for the first 6 weeks of their schedule). Clemson wasn't even on the radar until they won on many frivolous bad calls and in a Hurricane Joaquin. It just amazes me how bad that game turned out and how It sprung Clemson Into 19 top 4 CFPC rankings.
The only peace I can conjure up from this crazy unheralded recognition Is we are once again the Alpha.

 

[TheSunIsRising]

FWIW, The Athletic's projection system (based on FEI) give Notre Dame a higher percentage chance of going undefeated (43.8%) vs. getting into the playoff (41.5%). In other words, their system sees a greater chance that undefeated ND gets left out than a one-loss ND gets in.

It's a tough thing to project, however, since ND is not in a conference and it's a total unknown how the committee would evaluate that against conference champions.

It is troubling that the toughest parts of ND's schedule are behind them and for most contenders the toughest part of the schedule is still in front of them.

I had read that today, and found it confusing too. One of the comments though pointed out that the write-up did not align with the actual table which showed the 43.8% as the probability of getting into the playoff (and if you do the math, the FEI odds for each game arrive at the 41.5% chance of going undefeated).

Takeaways:

-losing one game makes for very long odds to make the playoffs
-The Athletic need to spend a bit of money on editors (love the overall product, but they do have a large number of issues that should be caught by edit)

 

[Circa]

This, I’ve said it before this isn’t a trap game. VT was a trap game and the team was ready. We are on the road again so they will be focused. If we were at home with distractions and everyone telling the team how great they are I would be more inclined to see it as a trap game.

If we don't completely dominate these fairies I'll say we might be in for trouble. Northwestern Is a joke and hasn't had any essence of a running game all year. We need to DOMINATE!
I couldn't be more irritated with the amount of disrespect and arrogance we been shown. Our boys might have needed this because I sure did. #FUCFPC

 

[MNIrishman]

What Is absolutely Hilarious to me and our forever predicament. People, those whom haven't a clue about real fandom are now stating what we have stated for a very long time. The "Elite" are everyone's Superbowl. Bama's, (I could agree If they played anyone for the first 6 weeks of their schedule). Clemson wasn't even on the radar until they won on a frivolous bad call and in a hurricane. The only peace I can conjure up from this crazy unheralded recognition Is we are once again the Alpha.

Nah. Bama doesn't get the best shot of everyone they play. They get a psychotic Auburn and usually a pumped up Florida or LSU, but that's about it. I mean, Tennessee totally packed it in in the first few minutes. They don't play Navy or some other team that's just trying to do everything they can to hurt you for 60 minutes. They don't play any team besides Auburn that has a huge inferiority complex the way Pitt and BC play us. Most of their opponents are more like us vs USC---USC gets into it sometimes and less into it other times.

And I'd argue the same thing for USC and Michigan. MSU gets jacked for Michigan. Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota don't. Stanford always seems to get up for USC ("What's your deal?"), but Arizona and ASU don't.

 

[Butchie]

Word!

 

[Butchie]

Every game from here on out is the biggest game of the season. If the team stumbles at all, the remaining games become much less important.

Word!

 

[Butchie]

No we wouldn’t have gotten in if we had beaten Stanford in the finale. The top 4 all won ahead of us

Yes we would have.

 

[T-Boone]

I've watched a couple of their game on the tube and the QB is accurate and gets it out fast. It will be a good test for our secondary and our D-line.

 

[Circa]

Nah. Bama doesn't get the best shot of everyone they play. They get a psychotic Auburn and usually a pumped up Florida or LSU, but that's about it. I mean, Tennessee totally packed it in in the first few minutes. They don't play Navy or some other team that's just trying to do everything they can to hurt you for 60 minutes. They don't play any team besides Auburn that has a huge inferiority complex the way Pitt and BC play us. Most of their opponents are more like us vs USC---USC gets into it sometimes and less into it other times.

And I'd argue the same thing for USC and Michigan. MSU gets jacked for Michigan. Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota don't. Stanford always seems to get up for USC ("What's your deal?"), but Arizona and ASU don't.

I stated what I have been listening to. People are saying the things on ESPNU/SiriusXM radio. The pundits agree. It's Alice in Wonderland type stuff.

I also Edited the OP

 

[Butchie]

FWIW, The Athletic's projection system (based on FEI) give Notre Dame a higher percentage chance of going undefeated (43.8%) vs. getting into the playoff (41.5%). In other words, their system sees a greater chance that undefeated ND gets left out than a one-loss ND gets in.

It's a tough thing to project, however, since ND is not in a conference and it's a total unknown how the committee would evaluate that against conference champions.

It is troubling that the toughest parts of ND's schedule are behind them and for most contenders the toughest part of the schedule is still in front of them.

This is so perplexing to me. Everyone I talk to & listen to is penalizing us for playing scUM week 1. Should we start the season mid Sept. or the first week of Oct. then??? I mean WTF!

Please explain tom me why scUM is ahead of Ga., Wazzu, or . . . . .OKLAHOMA. I ask you all would scUM like to see Oklahoma . . . Hell No! Who has scUM beat of note . . . no one. The best team they played beat them handily with their backup QB. But I digress. Let's do our job & win week over week. & this will all work out (sipping beer to bring down blood pressure. That's a thing right?)

 

[Circa]

I've watched a couple of their game on the tube and the QB is accurate and gets it out fast. It will be a good test for our secondary and our D-line.

Really? I hate being confident with anything out of my control. If we don't get her done. We fuuuuucked.

 

[Circa]

This is so perplexing to me. Everyone I talk to & listen to is penalizing us for playing scUM week 1. Should we start the season mid Sept. or the first week of Oct. then??? I mean WTF!

Please explain tom me why scUM is ahead of Ga., Wazzu, or . . . . .OKLAHOMA. I ask you all would scUM like to see Oklahoma . . . Hell No! Who has scUM beat of note . . . no one. The best team they played beat them handily with their backup QB. But I digress. Let's do our job & win week over week. & this will all work out (sipping beer to bring down blood pressure. That's a thing right?)

Let's just agree that this year's CFPC is sideways and just came out of wonderland. They're playing down to Alabama's level in order to keep the money in dixie land while us Yankees take care of them through taxes and logical thinking. Trailer's are sold by the family and ESPN took stock on them.

 

[Legacy]

Football: Notre Dame, Northwestern to renew historic rivalry at Ryan Field meeting decades in the making
(Daily Northwestern)

Meet Joe, Owner of the Notre Dame - Northwestern Shillelagh Trophy (OFD)