Jan 20 | National Championship

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IrishTusker

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If we were ~8.5+ point favorites, we would probably be confident too. But the advanced stats suggest a closer game, albeit with OSU still favored. There are many examples of underdogs winning in the BCS era. Maybe that will be less common because of the expanded playoff, I don't know.

Reminder that Georgia beat Texas twice, including after losing Beck. And that PSU scored 37 on Oregon.

The calls that went against ND in the PSU game and negated picks -calls that at the very least are highly discretionary and not often made- are probably the difference between winning by 3 and winning by 10 or 14.
 
stlnd01

stlnd01

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IrishTusker said:
If we were ~8.5+ point favorites, we would probably be confident too. But the advanced stats suggest a closer game, albeit with OSU still favored. There are many examples of underdogs winning in the BCS era. Maybe that will be less common because of the expanded playoff, I don't know.

Reminder that Georgia beat Texas twice, including after losing Beck. And that PSU scored 37 on Oregon.

The calls that went against ND in the PSU game and negated picks -calls that at the very least are highly discretionary and not often made- are probably the difference between winning by 3 and winning by 10 or 14.
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Yes, and against Texas, Ohio State benefitted from two huge touchdown plays that don't happen very often (and hardly ever this season against us). Difference between them winning by 14 and an overtime game.
 
InKellyWeTrust

InKellyWeTrust

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I feel sorry for Ohio St fans if they think this will be a "get your popcorn and watch the show" kind of game. ND will be the best team they've played to date. Ohio St has the talent advantage. ND has the coaching advantage. ND had the culture advantage.
 
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NDFAN2008

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Ohio State may just be a +8.5 favorite with the way they have played lately but this isn't like we are playing LSU with Burrow. Ohio State has everything to lose, ND is playing with house money and doesn't have the pressure to win. All it takes is 1-2 mistakes by their team fumble, INT ect and we play like we have mistake free and control the game we win. Howard makes a lot of risky throws and almost got picked off multiple times against Texas. Their OL isn't better than Penn State and their DL is probally even with Georgia and Penn State.
 
stlnd01

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NDFAN2008 said:
Ohio State may just be a +8.5 favorite with the way they have played lately but this isn't like we are playing LSU with Burrow. Ohio State has everything to lose, ND is playing with house money and doesn't have the pressure to win. All it takes is 1-2 mistakes by their team fumble, INT ect and we play like we have mistake free and control the game we win. Howard makes a lot of risky throws and almost got picked off multiple times against Texas. Their OL isn't better than Penn State and their DL is probally even with Georgia and Penn State.
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Personally I'm more concerned about their defense than their offense - at least if we can continue to patch together a DL for one more game. This could easily be yet another 17-14 rock fight. So turnovers, special teams, big plays could well be decisive.
 
NDVirginia19

NDVirginia19

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NDFAN2008 said:
Ohio State may just be a +8.5 favorite with the way they have played lately but this isn't like we are playing LSU with Burrow. Ohio State has everything to lose, ND is playing with house money and doesn't have the pressure to win. All it takes is 1-2 mistakes by their team fumble, INT ect and we play like we have mistake free and control the game we win. Howard makes a lot of risky throws and almost got picked off multiple times against Texas. Their OL isn't better than Penn State and their DL is probally even with Georgia and Penn State.
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I said this same thing to my other ND fans and got ripped to shreds. If we lose this game, I think we can all agree this was a great and memorable season. We exorcised some post-season demons and this team surprised and impressed the hell out of all of us with how they fought all year long. If Ohio State loses this game, their entire season is a failure in the eyes of the fans.
 
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NDVirginia19 said:
I said this same thing to my other ND fans and got ripped to shreds. If we lose this game, I think we can all agree this was a great and memorable season. We exorcised some post-season demons and this team surprised and impressed the hell out of all of us with how they fought all year long. If Ohio State loses this game, their entire season is a failure in the eyes of the fans.
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The season has been a success regardless of what happens in the title game. This is not a "it doesn't matter whether we win or lose" argument -obviously it is better to win- but it's about having reasonable expectations for a given season. After the Georgia win, I would say the season has been a big success. I think the team will probably be as good or better next year at every unit except maybe QB, where it's hard to know whether we will be better or not. I expect the run will help with fan interest/NIL/recruiting/etc., even if we lose. IIRC, BK's highest rated class was the one signed in 2013.

Remember that Clemson and Georgia both lost in their first title appearances in the BCS/CFP era before going on to win more titles later. It obviously isn't an ironclad rule that a coach either wins by year 3 or won't win. (Even at ND- Rockne didn't win a title by year 3.) But nor is the year 3 thing a myth: at ND and elsewhere, you know by year 3 whether you have a coach who can win a title, not necessarily because they actually won a title by year 3 (see again Clemson and Georgia). If you look at all the coaches who have won titles at a given school since the early 1960s, the average year they have done so is by year 6, the median is by year 4, and the mode (most common) is by year 3.

It seems to me that we have a good sense that is true about MF, based on this season.
 
Dale

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InKellyWeTrust said:
Defense has to tackle better. Uncharacteristic number of missed tackles against Penn St. I think they'll clean that up. Some mental and physical fatigue probably to blame.
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Shuler specifically. Had probably his worst game is the season and was actually quite poor in the 1H. Maybe fatigue or he was a sick player but didn’t notice it in 2H.
 
NDPhilly

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Down to -7.5 and +280 on DraftKings boys. We may be the favorite by kick off.

FWIW, the line for IU vs ND was around +7, +250 for IU before kick off
 
Kingbish01

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InKellyWeTrust said:
Defense has to tackle better. Uncharacteristic number of missed tackles against Penn St. I think they'll clean that up. Some mental and physical fatigue probably to blame.
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Like you said above about ND being the best team OSU has played. I think that is why we had an "uncharacteristic" amount of missed tackles against PSU. They were the best team ND faced all year, and it showed.
 
thekid33

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Am I tempting fate if I take a personal day next Tuesday? The way I see it is that I am going to be an emotional and physical shell of myself either way. But, I don't want to anger the football gods and have them interpret my taking the day off as a sign of hubris.
 
MacIrish75

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thekid33 said:
Am I tempting fate if I take a personal day next Tuesday? The way I see it is that I am going to be an emotional and physical shell of myself either way. But, I don't want to anger the football gods and have them interpret my taking the day off as a sign of hubris.
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You take the day. With confidence.
 
IrishSteelhead

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thekid33 said:
Am I tempting fate if I take a personal day next Tuesday? The way I see it is that I am going to be an emotional and physical shell of myself either way. But, I don't want to anger the football gods and have them interpret my taking the day off as a sign of hubris.
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Consider it Boxing Day, a way to celebrate the hard work put in during a successful season, and a day off is your gift.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Just booked the flight & hotel.. Taking my two older boys to the game.

I do think this is a team of destiny.. as cheesy as it sounds. They just keep finding a way to win.

And I know the 2012/13 team was similar in that regard but we match up much better here than we did against that Bama team.

Ohio St is clearly the more star studded group but we are so cohesive & consistent I just think it’ll come down to the wire again & I like our chances with Freeman at the helm.

I just can’t miss the opportunity to be there when ND finally wins another national championship.
 
NDPhilly

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Currently Debating going - its a shit ton of money to spend on a game where we have effectively have a 1/4 chance at winning...but will kick myself forever if i'm not there and pull it off.
 
Kingbish01

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NDPhilly said:
Currently Debating going - its a shit ton of money to spend on a game where we have effectively have a 1/4 chance at winning...but will kick myself forever if i'm not there and pull it off.
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I'm in the same mindset, and I live less than 30 minutes from Mercedes-Benz
 
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I mean 300 level tickets for 1525 is an "amazing value".
Not sure I will ever be able to take this off the bucket list
 
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IrishFanForever23

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NDPhilly said:
Currently Debating going - its a shit ton of money to spend on a game where we have effectively have a 1/4 chance at winning...but will kick myself forever if i'm not there and pull it off.
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I keep going back and forth about this as well. I bought our flights and used cc points for the hotel, but don't have any tickets to the game yet. Wife and I were just talking about whether it would be worth spending another 3-5k on tickets to the game and if they get blown out like people are predicting, would we regret it. On the other hand, if they do somehow pull off the unthinkable and win the game, the 3-5k would be worth it.
 
NDPhilly

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NDpendent said:
I hope this isnt the mindset for most ND fans because we need to show up for the team. But yeah I can't justify spending 6k-7k for tickets, lodging and flights for this game
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I thought about the same, but ND has enough filthy rich alums that will pay whatever to see a Natty, and just 35,000 = 50% of Mercedes Benz Stadium. We'll be well represented.
 
Kingbish01

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NDpendent said:
I hope this isnt the mindset for most ND fans because we need to show up for the team. But yeah I can't justify spending 6k-7k for tickets, lodging and flights for this game
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That's the kicker, most people can't afford a 10k weekend. So it turns into a corporate event, and the real fans get screwed. I've told this story a million times, but not sure I've told it here. I went to Miami for the Natty in 2013 and I bought my tickets off stubhub 4/5 hours before the game and they had locations around the stadium to pick up your tickets. Long story short, they made me hold up my tickets and drivers license and took my picture. I laughed and said "I've bought tickets from SH a million times and never had to do that before" the guy responded very matter of fact "This game is going to go the same way as the '05 Orange Bowl Natty (OU vs USC) and we don't want a bunch of chargebacks like we dealt with then. So I ended up going to Miami dropping 5k and it was over before the end of the 1st quarter.

I don't believe that will happen to anyone this year, but that stung for YEEEEEARS
 
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