Expectations for 2012?

[HereComeTheIrish]

I'll be disappointed with anything less than 9. and that's because of the schedule

You serious, Clarke?
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[Bogtrotter07]

Howdy HCTI! Who's this Clarke guy we hear so much about?

 

[yankeeND]

No it's not. It's a very tough schedule, but not 88 worthy. In 88, ND started the season with the 9th ranked Wolverines. During the season, they went on to play the #1(Miami, FL), #2(USC), and #3(WVA) teams in the country. That's #1, #2, AND #3! This year's schedule isn't even close to that.

In hindsight sure but I'm thinking where some of these teams could be. I think there is the possibility that we could play a #1 USC and also a #2 Oklahoma. I believe MSU and Michigan should be top 15 teams when we play them and even possibly top 10 teams. I believe Miami will be a top 25 team as well as Stanford. I may very well be wrong but I believe we are gonna be as close to that schedule as we are ever going to be this year. I'll give ya props though, 1,2, and 3 in the same year is as tough as it gets!

 

[Bluto]

Old Man Mike is spot on. Last year we were in a position to be competitive in and or win every game we lost. I went to the Stanford game and watching the QB play was painfull. All in all the D did a good job. Anyhow, if a QB emerges this team could win 10 games. I fully expect BYU to be next years Airforce game from this year.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I believe the QB position will definitely be an upgrade considering Tommy is still there. If he gets beat out, that means someone else is better. That would be an upgrade from last season (considering Tommy was the starter in '11).

So to win 9-10 games you NEED a proven QB and a big play wide receiver? Did Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, or TCU have proven QBs/big time WRs at this time last season? No. Yet they still ended up with pretty damn good seasons (especially Bama).

I hope the QB is an upgrade, but I'm not banking on it. We're either stuck with Rees or we have a first year QB under center. Great.

To win 9-10 games and this schedule, you need more than what ND has. You're comparing apples and oranges. Bama had one of the best defenses ever, Arkansas was unstoppable offensively, K State ran the freakin option in the Big12, Va Tech, Clemson, and TCU schedules do not come close to what ND has to play this year.

My point is this: no kool aid for this guy in 2012. I'll be content with 7-5 and anything beyond that will be a pleasant surprise. But you guys fully and wholeheartedly expecting 9, 10, and 11 wins...well, good luck.

 

[EddytoNow]

I expect an 8-4 or 9-3 regular season, but I wouldn't be surprised with 7-5 or 10-2. Every game on the schedule is winnable, but like others have said it will take consistent quarterback play and a rock solid defense. I think we are capable of beating both Michigan teams. The real challenges will come from Oklahoma, Southern California, and Stanford.

Because I expect a young quarterback to be leading the team, there will be some games that try our patience. If Rees starts, all bets are off. With an average of nearly two turnovers per game, no game is a given with Rees behind center.

We have top 15 talent and it is time for that talent to start producing on the field.

 

[IrishFBfanatic]

I hope the QB is an upgrade, but I'm not banking on it. We're either stuck with Rees or we have a first year QB under center. Great.

To win 9-10 games and this schedule, you need more than what ND has. You're comparing apples and oranges. Bama had one of the best defenses ever, Arkansas was unstoppable offensively, K State ran the freakin option in the Big12, Va Tech, Clemson, and TCU schedules do not come close to what ND has to play this year.

My point is this: no kool aid for this guy in 2012. I'll be content with 7-5 and anything beyond that will be a pleasant surprise. But you guys fully and wholeheartedly expecting 9, 10, and 11 wins...well, good luck.

Didn't you say we NEED a proven QB and a big play WR? That was my entire argument here. You don't NEED those things because these teams had amazing success without them.

Arkansas's offense was unstoppable...didn't they have a first year starter under center? Great.

Bama did have one of the best defenses ever, and there is no way we can compare our defense to theirs. We do, however, have the BEST middle linebacker in the country, one of the best defensive lines, and a fairly highly regarded safety. We don't compare to Bama, but neither do any other BCS schools (beside LSU).

K State ran the option in the Big 12. Oh, that's how you win the Big 12? You'd think the other coaches would have figured that out by now if it's so obvious. That logic means we should beat OU since we run the option. Should we mark that down as a win?

No one's schedule comes close to what ND plays this year, but it's not impossible. Are you forgetting that we went 8-5 in 2010 with a brand new head coach, an unproven freshman QB, our #1 RB and all-american TE injured for half the season, the anchor of our defense (Ian Williams) out for the home stretch of the season, Harrison Smith playing his FIRST season as a full-time starting safety, Jamoris Slaughter as a new starter in the secondary, breaking in 3 new starters on the offensive line, and yet we still went 8-5 against the #1 toughest schedule in college football!

All I'm saying is that the pessimism is not really that necessary. I do see how we could only win 7. If we go out and make the mistakes we've made the past few years, we will definitely only win 7. Are we only talented enough to win 7? HELL NO! We have more talent and experience than everyone on our schedule except for OU and USC. I know that there are upsets all the time in college football (I know because I'm a ND fan), but I don't go into the season "EXPECTING" to be upset by 3-4 teams. If everything worked out like it should on paper, we would go 10-2. It won't, and we know that.

Those saying we are a 7-5 team, will you really be happy with 7-5? Will you walk around and brag to your friends about ND going 7-5? "Yeah we met our expectations! High Five!" Get real. No one is happy losing to an inferior team...ever. You can say you're content with it now, but come september I'm assuming you'll be pissed off if we go out and blow 5 games.

 

[kmoose]

Those saying we are a 7-5 team, will you really be happy with 7-5? Will you walk around and brag to your friends about ND going 7-5? "Yeah we met our expectations! High Five!" Get real. No one is happy losing to an inferior team...ever. You can say you're content with it now, but come september I'm assuming you'll be pissed off if we go out and blow 5 games.

There's a big difference between believing that this is going to be a 7-5 team, and being content with being 7-5. No one is going to be bragging about being 7-5. But I think some of us might say to the "the sky is falling" crowd, "That's about what we should have been." I never play the record game. I want to see the product on the field. If I see a team that plays fundamentally well, makes progress through the season, and just gets better as the season goes on? I will be happy that we seem to be headed in the right direction. I may not like the final results (7-5?), but I will be hopeful for the future.

 

[GreatGolson]

just playing devil's advocate here, but it seems like most if not all posters on here think that Tommy has hit his ceiling, but can we really know that? I personally want Golson, but i think we are maybe underestimating his ability to improve

 

[Irish YJ]

just playing devil's advocate here, but it seems like most if not all posters on here think that Tommy has hit his ceiling, but can we really know that? I personally want Golson, but i think we are maybe underestimating his ability to improve

IMHO, physically he's at his ceiling. Mentally he can improve. Comes down to this for me..... Even if he reduced the turnovers, is he a better option than a green Golson or Gunner. I think the potential of Golson/Gunner outweights the chance that Tommy can reduce turnovers. Just my opinion, but I'd rather go with green this season instead of keeping higher ceiling guys on the shelf. They will only learn with reps, and I'd rather that happen sooner than mid-season or next year. If Golson or Gunner could get reps and step up this year, next year all of sudden looks BCSish assuming the DBs find their groove.

 

[arrowryan]

Can someone please tell me people think Stanford will be this year? You guys know their entire offense, which was one player, left for the draft?

 

[House16]

Here's what I HOPE will happen this year:

Golson starts and becomes the guy, no more question marks at QB, and we have a WR or two really step up. DD, Ferg, Neal, or Jones become big time playmakers.
Run game is great behind a powerful O-line, front 7 is just as good at stopping the run.
And lastly I would absolutely love to see the secondary surprise everyone.
We hang onto all of our current recruits and get a couple of elite secondary recruits

If all or most of this happens, I think we win 8 games.

Navy, Purdue, BC, Pitt, and Wake should all be wins.

We should win 2 out of 3 of Miami, Stanford, and BYU

I think we can get one out of two from Michigan and Michigan State

OU and USC should both be losses.

8-4 regular season, with a chance at a 9th win. For me, I will be very pleased if we can get to 8-5 again and the above things happen. Then we will have momentum, (someone said we haven't had 3 straight 8 win seasons in 18 years) and I think the table will truly be set not only for 2013 but also for 2014. All the pieces will be in place for some big time years.

 

[IrishFBfanatic]

Can someone please tell me people think Stanford will be this year? You guys know their entire offense, which was one player, left for the draft?

I agree. I have the same question. How is our QB question mark any worse than Stanford or MSU? Why do they get so much more respect? Stanford lost their all star QB, top receivers, best OLinemen, and top TE. MSU lost their starter & 3-time captain at QB, all their receivers...in fact their only returning skill player on offense is Le'Veon Bell.

 

[woolybug25]

Can someone please tell me people think Stanford will be this year? You guys know their entire offense, which was one player, left for the draft?

Because of....

Andrus Peat
Noor Davis
Barry Sanders Jr
Joshua Garnett
Kyle Murphy
Aziz Shittu
Alex Carter
James Vaughters
Wayne Lyons
Blake Lueders
Devon Carrington
Anthony Wilkerson

or the variety of players they have developed that weren't as highly ranked as the 4/5 star guys listed above.

 

[woolybug25]

I agree. I have the same question. How is our QB question mark any worse than Stanford or MSU? Why do they get so much more respect? Stanford lost their all star QB, top receivers, best OLinemen, and top TE. MSU lost their starter & 3-time captain at QB, all their receivers...in fact their only returning skill player on offense is Le'Veon Bell.

Because they have a highly recruited and now seasoned backup in Brett Nottingham.

Brett Nottingham - Yahoo! Sports

I remember when all of us where saying, "how is Stanford going to replace Toby Gerhart? I mean... he's their entire offense...."

 

[returnofthemack]

I agree. I have the same question. How is our QB question mark any worse than Stanford or MSU? Why do they get so much more respect? Stanford lost their all star QB, top receivers, best OLinemen, and top TE. MSU lost their starter & 3-time captain at QB, all their receivers...in fact their only returning skill player on offense is Le'Veon Bell.

I consider our question mark worse because our coach has mishandled the ND QB situation in a way I don't think Shaw or Dantonio would. Also, Stanford has an incredible O line ready to step up, and their defense should remain excellent. Msu still has great line play on both sides, and as you mentioned, they still have Bell.

 

[woolybug25]

I consider our question mark worse because our coach has mishandled the ND QB situation in a way I don't think Shaw or Dantonio would.

How could you possibly know that? Shaw has never had to handle a QB situation as a head coach.

 

[arrowryan]

Because of....

Andrus Peat
Noor Davis
Barry Sanders Jr
Joshua Garnett
Kyle Murphy
Aziz Shittu
Alex Carter
James Vaughters
Wayne Lyons
Blake Lueders
Devon Carrington
Anthony Wilkerson

or the variety of players they have developed that weren't as highly ranked as the 4/5 star guys listed above.

I understand that those players were good in high school but that doesn't mean those players will pan out. They are more unproven than us at quarterback and I think we have just as much, maybe more defensive talent as they do. They will be replacing a lot more talent this year than we are

 

[arrowryan]

I consider our question mark worse because our coach has mishandled the ND QB situation in a way I don't think Shaw or Dantonio would. Also, Stanford has an incredible O line ready to step up, and their defense should remain excellent. Msu still has great line play on both sides, and as you mentioned, they still have Bell.

I will be shocked if Stanford and MSU go better than 7-5

 

[returnofthemack]

How could you possibly know that? Shaw has never had to handle a QB situation as a head coach.

True. Regardless, as you said, they've got plenty of talent in the wings. Harbaugh was a godsend for them.

 

[returnofthemack]

I will be shocked if Stanford and MSU go better than 7-5

Stanford has a pretty weak schedule and they're the third best team in their conference. I think they go 9-3, 8-4 at worst. Honestly have no clue about State, but it would be a mistake to overlook them.

 

[woolybug25]

I understand that those players were good in high school but that doesn't mean those players will pan out. They are more unproven than us at quarterback and I think we have just as much, maybe more defensive talent as they do.

Their backup is not only a higher ranked recruit than all of our QB's sans Gunner, but also has been in the system for a couple years learning under a proven guy in Luck. They aren't going to change anything with their system because it's the same thing they have always done.

They will be replacing a lot more talent this year than we are

Funny... because last time I checked, we are most likely replacing our QB too. We lost a great runningback in Jonas Gray, we lost our ALL TIME BEST RECEIVER in Michael Floyd, we lost our best pass rusher in Lynch, we lost both of our cornerbacks, and even a pretty dang good safety in Harrison Smith.

Stanford may have lost a few reaaaally good guys, but all of them are being replaced with blue chip players that have been in the system for a while. Most of them have game experience.

Stanford's death has been greatly exaggerated..... again

 

[NDhoosier]

I will be shocked if MSU and UM win more than 8 games this year. Stanford has a weak schedule, probably only 2-3 losses.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Didn't you say we NEED a proven QB and a big play WR? That was my entire argument here. You don't NEED those things because these teams had amazing success without them.

Arkansas's offense was unstoppable...didn't they have a first year starter under center? Great.

Bama did have one of the best defenses ever, and there is no way we can compare our defense to theirs. We do, however, have the BEST middle linebacker in the country, one of the best defensive lines, and a fairly highly regarded safety. We don't compare to Bama, but neither do any other BCS schools (beside LSU).

K State ran the option in the Big 12. Oh, that's how you win the Big 12? You'd think the other coaches would have figured that out by now if it's so obvious. That logic means we should beat OU since we run the option. Should we mark that down as a win?

No one's schedule comes close to what ND plays this year, but it's not impossible. Are you forgetting that we went 8-5 in 2010 with a brand new head coach, an unproven freshman QB, our #1 RB and all-american TE injured for half the season, the anchor of our defense (Ian Williams) out for the home stretch of the season, Harrison Smith playing his FIRST season as a full-time starting safety, Jamoris Slaughter as a new starter in the secondary, breaking in 3 new starters on the offensive line, and yet we still went 8-5 against the #1 toughest schedule in college football!

All I'm saying is that the pessimism is not really that necessary. I do see how we could only win 7. If we go out and make the mistakes we've made the past few years, we will definitely only win 7. Are we only talented enough to win 7? HELL NO! We have more talent and experience than everyone on our schedule except for OU and USC. I know that there are upsets all the time in college football (I know because I'm a ND fan), but I don't go into the season "EXPECTING" to be upset by 3-4 teams. If everything worked out like it should on paper, we would go 10-2. It won't, and we know that.

Those saying we are a 7-5 team, will you really be happy with 7-5? Will you walk around and brag to your friends about ND going 7-5? "Yeah we met our expectations! High Five!" Get real. No one is happy losing to an inferior team...ever. You can say you're content with it now, but come september I'm assuming you'll be pissed off if we go out and blow 5 games.

We aren't Bama, or Arkansas, or K State, or any other Big12 or ACC team. It's comparing apples and oranges and ND schedule this year is awful.

I'm not going to be thrilled about 7-5, but it's realistic. And I sure as hell won't be bragging to anyone about it. Just getting a little older and taking the emotion out of everything. If ND goes 10-2, I'll mail you a case of beer. If they go 7-5 or 8-4, I'll simply shrug my shoulders based on talent at important positions and schedule. I'll be furious if ND loses to Purdue. You'll be pissed if they don't go 10-2.

We'll see where things stand in the fall...

 

[IrishFBfanatic]

Because they have a highly recruited and now seasoned backup in Brett Nottingham.

Brett Nottingham - Yahoo! Sports

I remember when all of us where saying, "how is Stanford going to replace Toby Gerhart? I mean... he's their entire offense...."

Remember this guy?: Dayne Crist - Yahoo! Sports

How can you compare a high school recruiting profile to a college junior? How could you have any idea how good he will be based off of a high school ranking 3 years ago?

 

[IrishFBfanatic]

Their backup is not only a higher ranked recruit than all of our QB's sans Gunner, but also has been in the system for a couple years learning under a proven guy in Luck. They aren't going to change anything with their system because it's the same thing they have always done.



Funny... because last time I checked, we are most likely replacing our QB too. We lost a great runningback in Jonas Gray, we lost our ALL TIME BEST RECEIVER in Michael Floyd, we lost our best pass rusher in Lynch, we lost both of our cornerbacks, and even a pretty dang good safety in Harrison Smith.

Stanford may have lost a few reaaaally good guys, but all of them are being replaced with blue chip players that have been in the system for a while. Most of them have game experience.

Stanford's death has been greatly exaggerated..... again

We lost our 2nd string running back, and the best receiver in college football. I understand Jonas was very good for us last year, but to compare that to replacing Andrew Luck (best QB), Fleener(best TE), Martin(top 5 OT), DeCastro (best G), Owusu, and Whalen? Not sure it compares.

We also now have the best TE in college football, and the best MLB in college football. Most teams can't ever say they have the BEST player at any position.

Of course we have to replace a high caliber pass rusher and a very good safety (which that position is personally my biggest concern...even more of a concern than CB. I just don't trust Motta like I trusted Smith).

To give the argument that Stanford is reloading with better talent based on recruiting rankings is also a bit of a stretch for the argument...since '08 (players still in college) Stanford has had 2 classes rated higher than ND. So, going off that logic I'd say ND should be reloading with just as good if not better talent...right?

Class Rankings - Rivals
08: ND-3 Stanford-50
09: ND-21 Stanford-20
10: ND-14 Stanford-26
11: ND-10 Stanford-22
12: ND-20 Stanford-5

 

[IrishFBfanatic]

We aren't Bama, or Arkansas, or K State, or any other Big12 or ACC team. It's comparing apples and oranges and ND schedule this year is awful.

I'm not going to be thrilled about 7-5, but it's realistic. And I sure as hell won't be bragging to anyone about it. Just getting a little older and taking the emotion out of everything. If ND goes 10-2, I'll mail you a case of beer. If they go 7-5 or 8-4, I'll simply shrug my shoulders based on talent at important positions and schedule. I'll be furious if ND loses to Purdue. You'll be pissed if they don't go 10-2.

We'll see where things stand in the fall...

Apparently I'm not understanding your argument, then. I'm just giving you examples of teams that didnt have proven QBs or big play WRs and still found success...

I agree the schedule looks awful, but you have to beat the best to be the best. Lets hope it keeps the guys motivated to bring their A game week in and week out. No sleeping on this schedule

 

[woolybug25]

I'll hit these one by one...

We lost our 2nd string running back,

He wasn't just a "second string rb", he was a vital punch to our RB tandem. If you don't understand that, then we were watching different games.

and the best receiver in college football. I understand Jonas was very good for us last year, but to compare that to replacing Andrew Luck (best QB), Fleener(best TE), Martin(top 5 OT), DeCastro (best G), Owusu, and Whalen? Not sure it compares.

I'm not comparing the loss of one player to all of Stanford's losses, I am comparing all of our losses compared to theirs. Furthermore, I am comparing the type of kids that are coming into replace them. If you look at it that way, it's pretty even. Shoot, we are replacing BOTH of our corners and our starting safety with guys that have little to no experience and one guy that came into Notre Dame at a totally different position (BJack). Stanford is replacing ALL of their losses with blue chip kids that have been in the program for at least a season.

We also now have the best TE in college football, and the best MLB in college football. Most teams can't ever say they have the BEST player at any position.

Not sure what this even has to do with Stanford losing players, but ok.

Of course we have to replace a high caliber pass rusher and a very good safety (which that position is personally my biggest concern...even more of a concern than CB. I just don't trust Motta like I trusted Smith).

Lynch wasn't just "high caliber", he was the best pass rusher on our team. It's a significant loss, imo. I totally agree with you on the safety position.

To give the argument that Stanford is reloading with better talent based on recruiting rankings is also a bit of a stretch for the argument...since '08 (players still in college) Stanford has had 2 classes rated higher than ND. So, going off that logic I'd say ND should be reloading with just as good if not better talent...right?

Class Rankings - Rivals
08: ND-3 Stanford-50
09: ND-21 Stanford-20
10: ND-14 Stanford-26
11: ND-10 Stanford-22
12: ND-20 Stanford-5

I never said anything about basing it off of recruiting rankings. I said that they are replacing them with blue chip players with experience in their program. We are replacing most of our losses with guys with little time in the program, guys switching positions, and in some positions (safety/CB) low ranked prospects.

Again, twist it any way you want. But I have read this story before and I am not getting fooled again. When Barry Sanders, Jr is running for 1,000 yards and Noor Davis is an All American, I hope I remember this thread. Stanford is going to be good for a while, but that doesn't mean we can't be better.

 

[NDBoiler]

I'll hit these one by one...


He wasn't just a "second string rb", he was a vital punch to our RB tandem. If you don't understand that, then we were watching different games.


I'm not comparing the loss of one player to all of Stanford's losses, I am comparing all of our losses compared to theirs. Furthermore, I am comparing the type of kids that are coming into replace them. If you look at it that way, it's pretty even. Shoot, we are replacing BOTH of our corners and our starting safety with guys that have little to no experience and one guy that came into Notre Dame at a totally different position (BJack). Stanford is replacing ALL of their losses with blue chip kids that have been in the program for at least a season.


Not sure what this even has to do with Stanford losing players, but ok.


Lynch wasn't just "high caliber", he was the best pass rusher on our team. It's a significant loss, imo. I totally agree with you on the safety position.



I never said anything about basing it off of recruiting rankings. I said that they are replacing them with blue chip players with experience in their program. We are replacing most of our losses with guys with little time in the program, guys switching positions, and in some positions (safety/CB) low ranked prospects.

Again, twist it any way you want. But I have read this story before and I am not getting fooled again. When Barry Sanders, Jr is running for 1,000 yards and Noor Davis is an All American, I hope I remember this thread. Stanford is going to be good for a while, but that doesn't mean we can't be better.

Wooly -

I can see where some confusion may have come in (at least where it did for me) from your original post on this topic. I was thinking that you were implying that the list of incoming freshman you posted would immediately be stepping into starting/significant roles, and Stanford would have similar success/minimal drop off despite this apparent youth movement. I think the comments in rebuttal you received may have been illicited by this perception, and not as much on the "solid backups" point of the argument. Just my 2 cents.

 

[woolybug25]

Wooly -

I can see where some confusion may have come in (at least where it did for me) from your original post on this topic. I was thinking that you were implying that the list of incoming freshman you posted would immediately be stepping into starting/significant roles, and Stanford would have similar success/minimal drop off despite this apparent youth movement. I think the comments in rebuttal you received may have been illicited by this perception, and not as much on the "solid backups" point of the argument. Just my 2 cents.

Yeah, that list I posted wasn't all freshmen. I just started pulling them from their recruiting classes starting with last years class first. So the first few on that list are freshman

Their QB, TE and linemen will all be replaced with solid blue chip kids with at least one year in the program (unless Andrus Peat just goes berserk and beats someone out, which is possible, but not a negative).