Germany should take it. Even if they don't have the best team (I think Holland does with Spain's question marks...Villa fully fit? Torres seems to be finally finding form, but Puyol out, so Ramo/Pique in central defence?), Germany ALWAYS finds ways to play well in tournaments. They get it done, and unfortunately that's what matters.
As an England fan, I don't think England's too over rated because they should be rated very lowly. Manager has been there for a month, no captain yet, should be new players playing together -- some for the first time -- and it should be a trial period for England. If Hodgson is smart (and I'm not sure he's the brightest star in the sky) he'll bring young players and try them out in the tournament, getting a base for WC 2014.
If he brings the older ones...e.g. Terry, Ferdinand, Gerrard, Lampard, Barry (who shouldn't be in the midfield) etc., then he's not prepping well for his real test in 2014 Brazil.
Barry hasn't proven much to me re: why he should play over Carrick (or Parker, if he's fit -- would be the clear choice). Shame Wilshere and Cleverly have been hurt for so long. Real shame.